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January 2016

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Water Bottle

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Water Bottle's Monthly Movie Guide

January 2016

 

January 8, 2016

 

The Forest (Original)

Genre: Horror

Movie Stars: None

Minor Stars: None

Director: Jason Zada (Director Power: 0)

Writers: Sarah Cornwell, Nick Antosca, Ben Katai (Collective Writer Power: 0)

Important Producers: David S. Goyer (Producer Power: 2.52)

 

Logline: In Mount Fuji, Sara (Natalie Dormer) searches for her lost twin sister only to be haunted by the death of tormented souls.

 

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 5.24/12.26: For some reason, the first weekend of the year has become a time of the year to release a horror movie. I guess there's no better way to start the year then with fear since they can open decently. The Forest doesn't seem to really offer anything new to horror fans, there's some controversy over having a white girl in a setting where Japanese people continually commit suicide in real life, and it has no real star power. It's hard to see this movie doing that well or having good legs.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 21%: An unknown director and brand new freshman writers don't inspire confidence and it's not like David S. Goyer is actually known for making good horror films. The fact that it's dumped in January simply tells me that the movie won't be that good.

 

January 15, 2016

 

13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi (Adaptation)

Genre: Action Thriller

Major Stars: None

Minor Stars: John Kransinski (Star Power: 0.42)

Director: Michael Bay (Director Power: 5.18)

Writers: Chuck Hogan (Writer Power: 0.99)

Important Producers: Michael Bay (Producer Power: 4.19) and Erwin Stoff (Producer Power: 1.56)

 

Logline: A group of Navy Seals attempt to defend the embassy from an attack by a group of militants in Libya.

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 17.48/82.08: It's political election season and this movie is coming around as the Iowa caucus heats up. Expect to hear more about Benghazi and guess what...this movie is about Benghazi! How timely! The interest the movie will generate, even though it's directed by Michael Bay, should give it solid legs.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 56%: Give Michael Bay a good writer and he might actually make a good movie out of it. He's a good visual, action director after all and Chuck Hogan has written critically successful movies before. This might be better than Michael Bay's recent efforts but I currently have doubts that this will be fresh.

 

Norm of the North (Original)

Genre: Animated Comedy

Major Stars: Rob Schneider (Star Power: 2.53)

Minor Stars: None

Director: Trevor Wall/Anthony Bell (Director Power: 0.00)

Writers: Jack Donaldson and Derek Elliot (Collective Writer Power: 0.00)

Important Producers: None

 

Logline: A polar bear (Rob Schneider) becomes the mascot for a corporation.

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 1.39/3.97: Rob Schneider can make movies that can get you a decent return on the investment but this is an animated feature that frankly screams “flop”. The lack of any established talent behind-the-scenes and it's January date makes me think Lionsgate is merely dumping this.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 25%: Rob Schneider simply isn't in good movies. It's why his star power is high but it also means that Norm of the North probably isn't going to be very good.

 

Ride Along 2 (Franchise)

Genre: Action Comedy

Major Stars: Ice Cube (Star Power: 1.00), Kevin Hart (Star Power: 1.28)

Minor Stars: Benjamin Bratt (Star Power: 0.74)

Director: Tim Story (Director Power: 2.72)

Writers:Phil Hay & Matt Manfred (Collective Writer Power: 1.94)

Important Producers: Ice Cube (Producer Power: 1.52), Matt Alvarez (Producer Power: 1.42), Will Packer (Producer Power: 1.47), J.C. Spink (Producer Power: 1.99)

 

Logline: Ben Barber (Kevin Hart) and James Payton (Ice Cube) are assigned to a case in Miami where they are asked to take down a drug lord (Benjamin Bratt).

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 37.85/95.81: The first movie was somehow a big hit despite poor critical and mixed audience reception. This suggests that this movie could potentially do well but it'll see a drop-off in totals from the first forgettable movie especially since comedy sequels rarely increase or even match their predecessor's performance.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 28%: Yes, the first movie was terrible and had 18% on Rotten Tomatoes but I'm hoping that for the sequel, they have been able to at least improve on the original. It can't be that hard...

 

 

January 22, 2016

 

The 5th Wave (Adaptation)

Genre: Sci-Fi Action

Major Stars: None

Minor Stars: Chloe Grace Moretz (Star Power: 0.75), Ron Livingston (Star Power: 0.30), Maria Bello (Star Power: 0.65), Liev Scheiber (Star Power: 0.61)

Director: J. Blakeson (Director Power: 0.00)

Writers: Akiva Goldsman, Susannah Grant, and Jeff Pinkner (Collective Writing Power: 1.22)

Important Producers: Graham King (Producer Power: 1.13), Tobey Maguire (Producer Power: 0.38)

 

Logline: Four waves of alien attacks have devastated the planet. Cassie Sullivan (Chloe Grace Moretz) must try to save her brother Sammy (Zackary Arthur) as she prepares for the final wave.

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 10.58/23.28: Will the 5th Wave be the next Twilight/Hunger Games? Yeah, I don't think so. I know Hollywood is trying to make Chloe Grace Moretz a star but this is the wrong vehicle for her to breakout in and carry. I'm also not sold that the books have the rabit fanbase that both Twilight and Hunger Games had.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 52%: If Sony had any real confidence in The 5th Wave's ability to start a franchise, I doubt they would have put this movie in January rather than in April or March. Maybe they doubt that the fanbase can turn this movie into a hit...or maybe they made a mistake trusting a relatively unknown director with the entry. Whatever the case, it simply doesn't look like the movie will be anything to write home about.

 

The Boy (Original)

Genre: Horror

Major Stars: None

Minor Stars: None

Director: William Brent Bell (Director Power: 5.09)

Writers: Stacey Menear (Writer Power: 0.00)

Important Producers: Roy Lee (Producer Power: 1.31), Gary Lucchesi (Producer Power: 0.80), Tom Rosenberg (Producer Power: 0.59%)

 

Logline: An American nanny (Laura Cohen) is hired to care for a porcelain doll...that might actually be alive.

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 12.46/24.53: This might satisfy that New Year's horror crave demand that the Forest might not have met and I think the trailer for this has been good. Plus William Brent Bell has directed two really bad movies that have done solid business.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 29%: William Brent Bell has yet to show he's capable of hitting the double digits so this might be a bit optimistic but he does have more experience under his belt now. One can only hope.

 

Dirty Grandpa (Original)

Genre: Comedy

Major Stars: Robert DeNiro (Star Power: 1.08), Zac Efron (Star Power: 1.08)

Minor Stars: Aubrey Plaza (Star Power: 0.20)

Director: Dan Mazer (Director Power: 0.00)

Writers: John Phillips (Writer Power: 0.00)

Important Producers: None

 

Logline: Jason (Zac Efron) is tricked into driving his grandfather (Robert DeNiro) to Florida.

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 5.33/11.30: This seems incredibly low doesn't it? After the bomb that was We Are Your Friends, Zac Efron's ability to get a young audience is certainly doubtful. Robert DeNiro is far beyond his prime days of selling tickets. I simply don't see this doing well especially with a rather lackluster trailer.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 42%: Okay, I don't think this looks to be that good but...it did manage to attract a decent cast and critics liked Dan Mazer's last big-budget comedy project, Bruno, and I thought that looked terrible. So this might actually be a half-decent movie that the marketing hasn't sold me on.

 

January 29, 2016

 

Fifty Shades of Black (Original)

Genre: Spoof

Major Stars: Marlon Wayans (Star Power: 1.38)

Minor Stars:

Director: Michael Tiddes (Director Power: 1.59)

Writers: Rick Alvarez and Marlon Wayans (Collective Writer Power: 2.27)

Important Producers: Rick Alvarez (Producer Power: 1.88) and Marlon Wayans (Producer Power: 1.6)

 

Logline: “Hey you know that movie they made that started out as crappy fan-fiction for Twilight? Yeah, that Fifty Shades of Grey movie that is pretty much already a self-parody? Let's make a movie spoofing it. Trust me, it's gonna be a goldmine.”

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 22.07/73.53: Spoof movies can be hit-and-miss not only in quality but also in box office gross. If the Paranormal Activity spoof can make $40 million (where the peak of the movies was at $107 million) then I'm going to guess this movie has the potential to do better (since Fifty Shades of Grey did $166 million) and it feels like something people would be willing to make fun off. On the other hand, it could also do less than a total of $10 million. Spoofs are hard to predict but let's assume all goes well and audiences want to see a movie making the same jokes they've probably already made with their friends.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 29%: Most of these spoof movies are terrible so it would be surprising if someone finally made a good one.

 

The Finest Hours (Adaption)

Genre: Historical Drama Thriller

Major Stars: Chris Pine (Star Power: 1.24), Eric Bana (Star Power: 1.01)

Minor Stars: Casey Affleck (Star Power: 0.72), Ben Foster (Star Power: 0.37)

Director: Craig Gillespie (Director Power: 0.43)

Writers: Scott Silver, Paul Tamasy, Eric Johnson (Collective Writing Power: 0.0)

Important Producers: None

 

Logline: A Coast Guard rescue mission in 1952 to save the crews of two oil tankers.

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 6.05/12.88: Disney is advertising this movie a lot despite having dumped it in January. I think they expect the movie to break out but after the performance of In the Heart of the Sea, I'm not really confident in the movie's chances. I also think the other military movie of the month, Benghazi, will cut into The Finest Hours' appeal.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 55%: The movie doesn't look bad, it simply looks very pedestrian and average. I wouldn't be surprised if the reviews reflect that.

 

Jane Got a Gun (Original)

Genre: Western

Major Stars: Natalie Portman (Star Power: 1.43)

Minor Stars: Ewan McGregor (Star Power: 0.87)

Director: Gavin O'Connor (Director Power: 0.34)

Writers: Brian Duffield, Anthony Tambakis, Joel Edgerton (Collective Writer Power: 1.55)

Important Producers: Natalie Portman (Producer Power: 0.49)

 

Logline: Jane (Natalie Portman) seeks revenge for her husband's death (Noah Emmerich) after a dangerous gang leader (Ewan McGregor) killed him in a duel.

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 10.10/22.83: Box Office Mojo currently has this as wide but the prediction would obviously change if Weinstein starts this out on a limited release. The Western genre remains largely dormant and while there is still box office appeal for these kind of movies (True Grit), I'm not sure Jane Got a Gun will break the trend and become a hit.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 56%: Gavin O'Connor has made some good movies and it has a pretty good cast but it is being released in January-if this was really spectacular, there's no way Oscar-greedy Weinstein would be opening it in January. This tells me there's problems with the movie.

 

Kung Fu Panda 3 (Franchise)

Genre: Animated Action Comedy

Major Stars: Jack Black (Star Power: 1.12), Angelina Jolie (Star Power: 1.44), Jackie Chan (Star Power: 1.07), Seth Rogen (Star Power: 1.40), Lucy Liu (Star Power: 1.33), Bryan Cranston (Star Power: 1.13)

Minor Stars: Dustin Hoffman (Star Power: 0.86), Kate Hudson (Star Power: 0.76)

Director: Alessandro Carloni/Jennifer Yuh Nelson (Director Power: 2.56)

Writers: Jonathan Aibel and Glenn Berger (Collective Writing Power: 3.01)

Important Producers: None

 

Logline: Po (Jack Black) must reunited with his family and a village of pandas in order to defeat an ancient, evil spirit (J.K. Simmons).

 

WB's Box Office Prediction: 30.87/119.44: The second Kung Fu Panda saw a significant drop from the first movie (165 million compared to 215 million) and they both opened in summer. There's way less competition in January but that's because it's January. Not to mention it's been five years since the last entry. Kung Fu Panda 3 should still be a blockbuster hit but it's going to see yet another drop.

WB's Rotten Tomatoes Prediction: 77%: The last two Kung Fu Panda movies were certified fresh and the trailers to this movie have actually been funny. I'd say that the third movie will get good reviews but it won't be as good as the first two movies.

 

January Outlook: Star Wars will dominate January especially with relatively weak competition. The strongest January movie will be Kung Fu Panda 3 both critically and box office-wise. Overall, it looks like a weak start for 2016 films.

 

Wide January Films:

Original Films: 6 (54.55%)

Adaption: 3 (27.27%)

Franchise: 2 (18.18%)

Total Films: 11 Films

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On 1/1/2016 at 1:32 PM, WrathOfHan said:

Dustin Hoffman is a minor star? What are you smoking WB? :lol: 

 

If you have a BOM page and a RT page, I calculate the star power. If you get a 1.00 or above, you get put in Major Star. If you get a 1.00 or below, you get put in Minor Star.

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