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Never Mind, Summer 2015... Will Superheroes Overwhelm the Box Office in 2016?


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#1
ShawnMR

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Full story: http://www.boxoffice...oric-box-office

 

For awhile, we've been talking about how impressive 2015's summer schedule is shaping up to be. Films likeThe Avengers: Age of UltronInside OutTed 2and Minions form a very solid foundation for what the heart of next year should bring, but this past weekend's announcement that Warner Bros.' untitled Superman-Batman film has moved to May 6, 2016 arguably makes that year's summer calendar the hottest to watch now.

 

The Superman-Batman film (should we just start calling it Justice League?) is now in a game of chicken with Disney/Marvel's previously dated, but still untitled, release for the same first weekend of May. The general assumption is that flick won't be a fourth Iron Man, and out of Marvel's existing solo franchises under theAvengers umbrella, Tony Stark's would be the only one with enough box office muscle to flex against Warner and DC's highly anticipated meeting of two of the most popular superheroes in history. Other thanThe Avengers itself, of course... (more)

 

Full story: http://www.boxoffice...oric-box-office


Edited by ShawnMR, 22 January 2014 - 09:38 AM.

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#2
CJohn

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In 2015 we will discuss this about 2017 because they will keep delaying/putting new stuff in the schedule.


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#3
druv10

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Interesting read, Shawn. I expect Disney to keep that date until they're sure B/S is coming out on May 6th. 


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#4
iJack

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Here's what Stephen Amell has to say about Justice League development:

 

[color=rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif;]“I have had discussions, but I think the gestation process for this project is a lot slower than most people think. I mean, they haven't even shot the next one. They haven't even shot a frame of the movie before the movie everyone thinks is the [/color]Justice League[color=rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif;] movie!”[/color]

 

[color=rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif;]Source: http://www.comicbook...jGGZVXh8gtAo.99[/color]

 

[color=rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif;]Don't get me wrong, I think Amell is a shitty tv actor, but I feel that he does know more about this stuff than the average blogger and their "sources" out there. [/color]

 

[color=rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif;]I don't believe that B/S is a Justice League film. What I actually believe is that just like Man of Steel, B/S will be overhyped to the oblivion and it will disappoint, based on those very same expectations. I don't think 2016 is overcrowded, just like I don't believe neither 2013 or 2014 were/are overcrowded. [/color]

 

[color=rgb(0,0,0);font-family:Calibri, Arial, Verdana, sans-serif;]I think that B/S will move again.  I believe that the rumors about some serious problems going on with this project is true, and I believe this has a pretty 50/50 chance of going to development hell for good. And if it doesn't, it'll disappoint. As long as Warner is all talk but no action, we won't be getting a DC Movieverse off the ground.[/color]

 

This year we have Captain America: The Winter Soldier, The Amazing Spider-Man, X-Men: Days of Future Past and Guardians of the Galaxy. In 2016, we have an unnamed Marvel Studios project, B/S, X-Men: Apocalypse and The Amazing Spider-Man 3. I fail to see how that is any different than what we had/have either in 2013 or 2014. 


Edited by Winter Soldier, 22 January 2014 - 09:58 AM.


#5
Neo

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Interesting read, Shawn. I expect Disney to keep that date until they're sure B/S is coming out on May 6th. 

I think they know. Different studios, but I would guess there is some talk between studios. When would DIS be sure the day before the OS release, to late for a move.


Unless Cameron offers SMELL-O-VISION with AVATAR 2, It's not doing more than 400M Plus ..  And YES, I'll bet AVATAR 2 doesn't do more than at best 425M Domestic ... You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office

 

I'll be honest with you, I see Avatar 2 doing half of what the first did. Seriously, I think these sequels will start off below $400M and then just drop further.

 


#6
iJack

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Besides, you never mention that Disney could always move Star Wars to the May, 6th 2016. For Disney, the May 6th date is an important one, and I don't see it them letting it go. The Avengers: Age of Ultron release date is May 1st, 2015. That's a premiere date for the Summer, and I simply don't see Disney letting the date go. I believe that either Star Wars will be moved to May, 6th 2016 or DC will chicken out once again, hopefully this time dropping Zack Snyder and David Goyer out of the equation. 



#7
Neo

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Besides, you never mention that Disney could always move Star Wars to the May, 6th 2016. For Disney, the May 6th date is an important one, and I don't see it them letting it go. The Avengers: Age of Ultron release date is May 1st, 2015. That's a premiere date for the Summer, and I simply don't see Disney letting the date go. I believe that either Star Wars will be moved to May, 6th 2016 or DC will chicken out once again, hopefully this time dropping Zack Snyder and David Goyer out of the equation. 

Why is it important? December 18th is not a premiere date?


Unless Cameron offers SMELL-O-VISION with AVATAR 2, It's not doing more than 400M Plus ..  And YES, I'll bet AVATAR 2 doesn't do more than at best 425M Domestic ... You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office

 

I'll be honest with you, I see Avatar 2 doing half of what the first did. Seriously, I think these sequels will start off below $400M and then just drop further.

 


#8
kitik

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No offense to Shawn, but fairly pointless article this far out, since half of those films will surely move, and a bunch of other ones will eventually move in to summer 2016.


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#9
druv10

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I think they know. Different studios, but I would guess there is some talk between studios. When would DIS be sure the day before the OS release, to late for a move.

 

They don't have to wait last minute more like if their sources are sure that it's coming out on time then bump up the project to CA:TWS spot in early April. 


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#10
iJack

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Why is it important? December 18th is not a premiere date?

It's the Summer's best date. There's a reason why The Avengers, Iron Man 3, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and The Avengers: Age of Ultron all have aimed for the beginning of May as a release date. December 18th isn't a premiere date, and I believe Star Wars will be released as it has always been released: In the Summer, more especifcally, in May 6th, 2016, with pre-screenings in North American soil starting with May 4th, 2016. 



#11
JediGuardia7

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For the 500 millionth time star wars aint moving

#12
druv10

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It's the Summer's best date. There's a reason why The Avengers, Iron Man 3, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and The Avengers: Age of Ultron all have aimed for the beginning of May as a release date. December 18th isn't a premiere date, and I believe Star Wars will be released as it has always been released: In the Summer, more especifcally, in May 6th, 2016, with pre-screenings in North American soil starting with May 4th, 2016. 

 

I've to disagree with you there, buddy. Dec 18th is a premiere date as gross is massively inflated by winter holidays. Titanic, Avatar, ROTK and now look at Frozen so it definitely is premiere. 


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#13
DamienRoc

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While the early May release date is very strong, it's a bit of a stretch to say that it's the best release date of summer.

 

I believe it's only happened four times that the early May date has opened the largest movie of the summer: IM3, Avengers, Spider-Man 3, and Spider-Man. This year doesn't seem likely to add another one. Also, it's only twice led to the largest movie of the year (Avengers and Spider-Man).

 

Really, the film in question, and audience interest in it, has a far greater effect than the release date. Avengers 2 is likely to be the biggest film of next year, but that would be true wherever in the schedule they decided to slot it.


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#14
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This is why I prefer to keep my attention on the here and now. Way too many things could happen between now and 2016 to be discussing that year. 

 

Has anyone looked at April recently? It's packed. Could shatter records.


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#15
Neo

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It's the Summer's best date. There's a reason why The Avengers, Iron Man 3, The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and The Avengers: Age of Ultron all have aimed for the beginning of May as a release date. December 18th isn't a premiere date, and I believe Star Wars will be released as it has always been released: In the Summer, more especifcally, in May 6th, 2016, with pre-screenings in North American soil starting with May 4th, 2016. 

Mid-July isn't good? AOU I would think because of TA. Can go back to IM, even the early 00s for Marvel getting this date. December 18th, Nah just the last 2 DOM, OS and WW holders have come from this date nothing special, last week of November much better.

 


Unless Cameron offers SMELL-O-VISION with AVATAR 2, It's not doing more than 400M Plus ..  And YES, I'll bet AVATAR 2 doesn't do more than at best 425M Domestic ... You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office

 

I'll be honest with you, I see Avatar 2 doing half of what the first did. Seriously, I think these sequels will start off below $400M and then just drop further.

 


#16
John Marston

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Lol what is this obsession with Disney/Marvel must having that date? So they should move Star Wars just to stop WB from getting it?
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#17
Saintarcher

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I don't think Batman / Superman is getting released in 2016. It'll probably be pushed further at this point.


Edited by Fancyarcher, 22 January 2014 - 11:07 AM.

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#18
Shaldun

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Lol what is this obsession with Disney/Marvel must having that date? So they should move Star Wars just to stop WB from getting it?

If it's Star Wars it will still break the tradition of a Marvel movie on that slot anyway. Star Wars isn't Marvel and all Marvel movies aren't Disney's so as weird as it looks, we will maybe have the WB blockbuster opening in early May. What's the big deal ? We can have a Disney movie in the mid-July date like that. Some change is fun.

Speaking of changes, Star Wars is definitely not moving now. It has a perfect date for a family-friendly and rewatch-value movie like Star Wars. It'll have great legs, a mad merchandising with Christmas and it's in 2015, what Disney wanted. No way it's moving except big problem. And no, there is no delay in production now, they have finished the script, they will shoot in Spring and there's plenty of time after for post-prod. So Star Wars is in December ! 

 

Great read even if discussing 2016 is pointless because the changes will be huge, it's fun ;) ! But I don't think will see something special on the superhero side only. We have 2 Marvel untitled likely to be new characters : they won't do a billion each. We have TASM 3, let see how TASM2 behaves this year but yes, it's a major player (therefore, it doesn't need to move, less than X-Men Apocalypse by example and btw in December 2016, we have Avatar 2 so bad idea to go there). Same with X-Men Apocalypse, let's see if DOFP can change the franchise in something bigger (let's face it, X-Men isn't that big a franchise for now). The last one is Batman/Superman and even if it's an unknow there is 95% chances that it pass 1B WW and 400M DOM so it's the biggest. I belive that 2016 will be a big year (and summer obviously) but not necessarily thanks to the super-heroes, they will be important but we have some interesting things on others genres. Animation will be huge : HTTYD3, Dory and Ice Age 5 (maybe Tintin). Alice 2 will still do big business even if it won't match the first one (around 600-700M WW easy). We have independence Day 2. Apes 3 is there too (wait Dawn to see but I think this can become a major franchise, like around 700-800M WW). POTC5 will likely be there (mid-July spot ?). The year overall will be great with Avatar 2 to conclude it. We can also expect Transformers 5 (2 years apart as usual with TF), Star Trek 3 and WWZ 2 from Paramount (not all of them I suppose). 


Edited by Shaldun, 22 January 2014 - 11:06 AM.

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#19
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 We have TASM 3, let see how TASM2 behaves this year but yes, it's a major player (therefore, it doesn't need to move, less than X-Men Apocalypse by example and btw in December 2016, we have Avatar 2 so bad idea to go there). Same with X-Men Apocalypse, let's see if DOFP can change the franchise in something bigger (let's face it, X-Men isn't that big a franchise for now).

Seeing as we haven't had a proper X-Men movie in 8 years.


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Unless Cameron offers SMELL-O-VISION with AVATAR 2, It's not doing more than 400M Plus ..  And YES, I'll bet AVATAR 2 doesn't do more than at best 425M Domestic ... You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office

 

I'll be honest with you, I see Avatar 2 doing half of what the first did. Seriously, I think these sequels will start off below $400M and then just drop further.

 


#20
Sam

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I'm way more interested in the Marvel untitled in July. Really hope it'll be Cap. The May date, as long as it's not Avengers, don't care. Sony, Fox, WB, whatever. I hope Marvel move up from that date, I like the idea of having a superhero movie in the Spring.


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