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JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

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Wed

 

Estimated admissions 100% market (based on past week market share for Toho/Movix/United/109/Kinezo)

 

1 - 41476 American Sniper (tot 927K adm - 10M$)
2 - 11461 Fios

3 - 10950 GUNDAM

 

Annie  1,024,844 adm up to 3/1 - 1,286 Byen (10,9M$)
 

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Weekend Forecast (03/07-08)

200.jpg?1419405846200.jpg?1423542733

01 (--) ¥630 million ($5.3 million), 0, ¥630 million ($5.3 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (Toho) NEW
02 (--) ¥210 million ($1.7 million), 0, ¥210 million ($1.7 million), Solomon's Perjury (Part 1) (Shochiku) NEW
03 (01) ¥194 million ($1.6 million), -33%, ¥1.47 billion ($12.5 million), American Sniper (Warner Bros.) Week 3
04 (--) ¥80 million ($675,000), 0, PriPara the Movie: Everyone, Assemble! Prism Tours (Avex Pictures) NEW
05 (03) ¥71 million ($600,000), -34%, ¥1.02 billion ($7.3 million), Terrace House: Closing Door (Toho) Week 4
06 (02) ¥69 million ($580,000), -56%, ¥8.97 billion ($76.4 million), Big Hero 6 (Disney) Week 12
07 (04) ¥67 million ($565,000), -50%, ¥270 million ($2.3 million), The Curtain Rises (T-Joy) Week 2
08 (05) ¥53 million ($450,000), -36%, ¥190 million ($1.6 million), Have a Song on Your Lips (Asmik Ace) Week 2
09 (07) ¥49 million ($415,000), -32%, ¥180 million ($1.5 million), Mobile Suit Gundam: The Origin I (Shochiku) Week 2
10 (06) ¥47 million ($400,000), -41%, ¥1.16 billion ($9.9 million), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount) Week 5

>Doraemon will have no trouble delivering the biggest debut so far in 2015. It's currently selling over 2x as many tickets as the rest of the Top 10 combined at the usual locations.

The beginning of March has been Doraemon's annual release date for over 30 years, signaling the beginning of Spring for audiences that always turn out in considerable numbers. Doraemon's opening weekend is typically one of the ten biggest of the year, and the films frequent the yearly Top 10 in most recent years, too, so don't be surprised to see it ranked high on the end of year charts.

>Solomon's Perjury (Part 1) looks to be doing alright, and could break ¥200 million over the weekend. Unless it falls considerably short of the mark, it'll be Shochiku's first ¥1 billion earner this year. Here's to hoping it doesn't just break ¥200 million, and comes in closer to ¥250 million.

>PriPara the Movie: Everyone, Assemble! Prism Tours is only playing at 40 locations, but Avex Pictures knows the right locations to play their films in. The majority of their limited releases have debuted in the Top 10 with very high PSA's over the past couple years, and I doubt this one will be any different. I think it has some stage greetings today as well, which will definitely assist it.

>And finally, a potential dark horse to debut in the Top 10 is Knights of Sidonia: The Movie. It's playing at even fewer locations, just 27, but it's doing quite well. It'll probably fall just short, though, but it's worth mentioning.
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Sat estimates

                                            

                          Adm   Gross Yen/$                    Tot Byen/M$

Doraemon              249.108   JPY 311.384.375   $2.575.149  
American Sniper        69.679   JPY  88.074.130     $728.373   1,3167   11,20
Solomon's Perjury      55.404   JPY  69.255.000     $572.739  
Gundam                 28.045   JPY  35.056.125     $289.914  
Terrace House          18.640   JPY  23.300.000     $192.691

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Pokemon pre-sale movie tickets are set to be available on March 7th.

 

Are we expecting anything?

I believe pre-sales for the movie will be a little bit higher than the last Pokemon film as many factors contribute to its (hopeful) success:

 

1. Arceus event

2. Legendary brawl

3. Hoopa event sure to follow

4. Promotion will kick into full gear and with Coro-Coro due in a few days, expect IMMENSE hype for the movie

 

It's already being branded as the "movie everyone wants to see" so I'm hopeful it will increase from its predecessor! 

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I believe pre-sales for the movie will be a little bit higher than the last Pokemon film as many factors contribute to its (hopeful) success:

 

1. Arceus event

2. Legendary brawl

3. Hoopa event sure to follow

4. Promotion will kick into full gear and with Coro-Coro due in a few days, expect IMMENSE hype for the movie

 

It's already being branded as the "movie everyone wants to see" so I'm hopeful it will increase from its predecessor! 

 

I hope so :)

 

The last movie was deemed as a disappointment so I'm hopeful that this film will be more successful, and better as well, especially in pacing.

 

It also helps that the pre-sale tickets are available a month earlier than the usual and with Arceus as you mentioned (a possibility to get a shinty to boot).

 

Maybe it was a conscious decision to release it earlier as more traffic in movie theaters (Doraemon) = more portential sales

Edited by lolalooloo
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Weekend estimates

 

                        Adm   Gross Yen/$

Doraemon            551.683   JPY 662.019.000   $5.474.897  
American Sniper     138.183   JPY 174.663.691   $1.444.469   tot Byen1,3959   M$11,87
Solomon's Perjury   103.275   JPY 129.093.750   $1.067.605  
Gundam               49.121   JPY  61.401.375   $  507.789  
Terrace House        40.534   JPY  50.667.500   $  419.020

 

Big Hero 6 very close to 7M admissions / 9B yen

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Weekend Estimates (03/07-08)

165740_8.jpg

01 (--) ¥685 million ($5.8 million), 0, ¥685 million ($5.8 million), Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (Toho) NEW
02 (01) ¥167 million ($1.4 million), -44%, ¥1.45 billion ($12.3 million), American Sniper (Warner Bros.) Week 3
03 (--) ¥120 million ($1.0 million), 0, ¥120 million ($1.0 million), Solomon's Perjury (Part 1) (Shochiku) NEW
04 (03) ¥59 million ($500,000), -45%, ¥1.00 billion ($8.5 million), Terrace House: Closing Door (Toho) Week 4
05 (02) ¥56 million ($470,000), -65%, ¥8.96 billion ($76.3 million), Big Hero 6 (Disney) Week 12
06 (05) ¥50 million ($420,000), -40%, ¥190 million ($1.6 million), Have a Song on Your Lips (Asmik Ace) Week 2
07 (--) ¥45 million ($380,000), 0, PriPara the Movie: Everyone, Assemble! Prism Tours (Avex Pictures) NEW
08 (07) ¥43 million ($365,000), -41%, ¥180 million ($1.5 million), Mobile Suit Gundam: The Origin I (Shochiku) Week 2
09 (04) ¥42 million ($360,000), -54%, ¥260 million ($2.2 million), The Curtain Rises (T-Joy) Week 2
10 (06) ¥39 million ($325,000), -52%, ¥1.15 billion ($9.8 million), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount) Week 5

>Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes, the 36th film in the franchise, will possibly achieve the best opening weekend in the series if estimates hold up. Its admissions are estimated at 593,000 (5,000 shy of the admissions record in the series), and its estimated weekend gross of ~¥685 million makes it the highest in the series (by ¥13 million) if we're to excluding Stand By Me, Doraemon. And nearly 600,000 admissions over the weekend will be a big challenge for other films this year to beat.

Either way, it's opening weekend achieved the highest debut, or one of the Top 3 debuts in the franchise's history, depending on what the actual is tomorrow morning. It'll exceed ¥3.5 billion ($30 million), and might make a play at ¥4 billion ($35 million). Doraemon is very likely to earn a Top 10 spot on the Yearly Top 10 again this year.

>Solomon's Perjury (Part 1) is largely a bust. An opening weekend above ¥100 million is fine, but its hopes of becoming a 1 billion earner are incredibly unlikely now. It'll need to play very, very well over Spring Break in a couple weeks to not be considered a disappointment.

>PriPara the Movie: Everyone, Assemble! Prism Tours, being a limited release, is hard to estimate, but it looks like one of Avex Pictures's weaker openings in quite some time despite the good number.
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Top 25 Opening Weekends [ANIMATED FEATURES]
Weekend Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [screen Count] - Film (Release Date)

01. ¥1.629 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,484,916 [408] :: Yo-Kai Watch: It's the Secret of Birth, Nyan! (Dec '14) [#1 All-Time Domestic OW]
02. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 [448] :: Howl's Moving Castle (Nov '04)
03. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 [300] :: One Piece Film Z (Dec '12)
04. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 [223] :: Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (Nov '12)
05. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 [190] :: One Piece Film Strong World (Dec '09)
06. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 [481] :: Ponyo (July '08)
07. ¥1.010 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 [318] :: Spirited Away (July '01)
08. ¥977.3 million ($11.1 million) / 649,249 [530] :: Toy Story 3 (July '10)
09. ¥960.9 million ($9.8 million) / 747,451 [454] :: The Wind Rises (July '13)
10. ¥907.4 million ($7.9 million) / 672,696 [435] :: Tales from Earthsea (July '06)
11. ¥898.0 million ($8.4 million) / 724,000 [654] :: Finding Nemo (Dec '03)
12. ¥895.6 million ($10.4 million) / 680,190 [447] :: Arrietty (July '10)
13. ¥847.5 million ($8.4 million) / 614,969 [661] :: Monsters University (July '13)
14. ¥789.3 million ($7.8 million) / 649,865 [341] :: Detective Conan: The Sniper from Another Dimension (Apr '14)
15. ¥780.9 million ($6.5 million) / 742,978 [351] :: Pokemon D&P: The Rise of Darkrai (July '07)
16. ¥767.2 million ($7.6 million) / 554,991 [319] :: Stand By Me, Doraemon (Aug '14)
17. ¥763.4 million ($7.5 million) / 602,347 [598] :: Frozen (Mar '14)
18. ¥751.8 million ($7.3 million) / 604,355 [689] :: The Incredibles (Dec '04)
19. ¥715.0 million ($6.1 million) / 540,000 [260] :: Princess Mononoke (July '97)
20. ¥703.8 million ($6.7 million) / 670,285 [359] :: Pokemon D&P: Giratina and the Sky Warrior (July '08)
21. ¥685.0 million ($5.8 million) / 593,000 [351] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (Mar '15) *Est.*
22. ¥683.9 million ($7.3 million) / 561,098 [312] :: Dragon Ball Z: Battle of Gods (Mar '13)
23. ¥672.6 million ($7.1 million) / 641,700 [366] :: Pokemon D&P: Arceus and the Jewel of Life (July '09)
24. ¥671.5 million ($6.9 million) / 565,914 [344] :: Detective Conan: Private Eye in the Distant Sea (Apr '13)
25. ¥667.3 million ($7.2 million) / 597,899 [353] :: Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum (Mar '13)


Recently Bumped Off:
26. ¥649.8 million ($6.4 million) / 539,132 [329] :: Lupin III vs. Detective Conan (Dec '13)
27. ¥629.7 million ($7.7 million) / 540,975 [351] :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker (Apr '12)
28. ¥629.5 million ($7.2 million) / 600,602 [369] :: Pokemon D&P: Zoroark - Master of Illusion (July '10)


Upcoming Major Animated Features:
Detective Conan: Sunflowers of Inferno (04/18/15)
Dragon Ball Z: Revival of F (04/18/15)
The Boy and the Beast (07/11/15)
Pokemon XY: The Archdjinni of the Rings - Hoopa (07/18/15)
Inside Out (07/18/15)
Evangelion 4.0: Final (Winter '15)
Yo-Kai Watch 2 (Dec '15)
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Big Hero 6 total actuals: 7.051.092 admissions - 8,960.705.900.000¥ (76,21M$)

 

Doraemon actuals  557.310 admissions - 644.807.278¥   (5,33M$) - prediction accuracy: adm 99% - gross 97,4%

Edited by edroger
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Corpse

 

Weekend Ranking (03/07-08)

165740_1.jpg

01 (--) Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes (Toho) DEBUT
02 (01) American Sniper (Warner Bros.) Week 3
03 (--) Solomon's Perjury (Part 1) (Shochiku) DEBUT
04 (03) Terrace House: Closing Door (Toho) Week 4
05 (02) Big Hero 6 (Disney) Week 12
06 (05) Have a Song on Your Lips (Asmik Ace) Week 2
07 (07) Mobile Suit Gundam: The Origin I (Shochiku) Week 2
08 (06) Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (Paramount) Week 5
09 (--) PriPara the Movie: Everyone, Assemble! Prism Tours (Avex Pictures) DEBUT
10 (04) The Curtain Rises (T-Joy) Week 2

>Doraemon: Nobita's Space Record of Space Heroes kicked off the upcoming Spring box-office in a big way once again this year (if down a bit from estimates). The 36th installment in the most-successful movie franchise of all-time in Japan brought in ¥644,735,500 ($5.4 million) with 557,310 admissions across 365 screens over the weekend.

The opening weekend is 7.3% higher than last year's film, and as a result, it achieved the third biggest opening weekend in the franchise in gross (behind the special CG Stand By Me, Doraemon from last year, and the 2013 release) and second biggest opening in the franchise in admissions (behind just the 2013 release).

Doraemon will be targeting a total of ¥3.5-4 billion ($30-35 million) with 3-3.5 million admissions (very likely enough for a Top 10 yearly spot).

The blue robot-cat from the future remains as popular as ever, if not more so, and this opening weekend is a high benchmark for the rest of 2015's releases to reach with most box-office years having fewer than 10 films open with 500,000+ admissions.<

>American Sniper continues its impressive run in Japan, taking in ¥180,999,400 ($1.5 million) with 141,185 admissions in its third weekend. After three-weeks, the Clint Eastwood feature has earned ¥1,458,786,900 ($12.4 million) with 1,140,757 admissions.

Sniper is still on target to hit ¥2 billion ($17/18 million, and could finish as high as ¥2.5 billion ($22/23 million) with the Spring Break boost coming up in a couple weeks.<

>Solomon's Perjury (Part 1) settles for third place, and probably didn't do as well as Shochiku had hoped. Playing on 311 screens, the film grossed ¥120,128,100 ($1.0 million) with 91,850 admissions over the weekend. Shochiku has had amazing consistency with most of their films opening around this level, which isn't bad, but it's generally just enough for most films to finish with enough to break even (most films that fail to earn ¥1 billion at the box-office are considered commercial failures).<

>Big Hero 6 drops three spots to rank fifth in its twelfth week in release, largely due to a pretty severe cut in theaters (-20%) and screens/showtimes (~-30%). A twelfth weekend in the Top 5 is hardly anything to be disappointing about, however.

Disney's blockbuster animated hit earned ¥63,803,900 ($540,000) with 48,113 admissions in its twelfth weekend, down a hefty 59% from the previous week. After twelve weeks in release, the film achieved "uber-blockbuster" status, with a total reaching ¥8,960,705,900 ($76.2 million) with 7,051,092 admissions.

It is now the 44th biggest film of all-time, and the 11th biggest animated film of all-time (overtaking Monsters University in gross and admissions over the weekend on both lists).<

>PriPara the Movie: Everyone, Assemble! Prism Tours cracked the Top 10 on just 40 screens which is always impressive, however this limited animated feature falls pretty short of Avex's past limited animated hits over the past couple years. Season 2 of the anime means we'll probably see another film at some point.<
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Tokyo Anime Award Festival 2015 Nominations:

 

Cinema

 

Frozen

The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

Mobile Suit Gundam Unicorn: Episode 7

Stand By Me Doraemon

 

TV series

 

Knights of Sidonia

Ping Pong: The Animation

Yokai Watch

LoveLive!

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