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BoxOffice Analysis: Led By FAST 6 and HANGOVER 3, How Big Will Memorial Weekend Be?


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#1 ShawnMR

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:07 PM

Full article: http://www.boxoffice...ack-300-million

 

The box office performances of Iron Man 3The Great Gatsby, and Star Trek Into Darkness have already helped May lift 2013's bottom line. Next comes the time of year every exhibitor looks forward to: Memorial Day weekend. In fact, 2013's first holiday frame of summer may be the most anticipated in a long time. 

This weekend will see the release of three new titles: Fast and Furious 6The Hangover Part III, and Epic. The former two are expected to post big numbers, while Epic has more reserved expectations behind it. That flick's main advantage will be the fact that no animated movies have opened since March'sThe Croods--meaning families with little kids will be looking for something new. 

That being said, the real stories will be the two big franchise sequels. BoxOffice is currently forecasting openings of $108 million and $73 million for Fast 6 and the third Hangover, respectively. Add in our expected $30 million for Epic, and the new releases alone should account for more than $200 million of business between Friday and Monday. 

By comparison, the entire market (new releases and holdovers combined) totaled... (more) 

 


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#2 Biggestgeekever

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:14 PM

BTC seems to be predicting this will be the most attended Memorial Day weekend; their top 6 prediction comes out to $289m, and that's with Trek, Iron Man 3, and Gatsby being 3-day predictions.



#3 ShawnMR

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:26 PM

BTC seems to be predicting this will be the most attended Memorial Day weekend; their top 6 prediction comes out to $289m, and that's with Trek, Iron Man 3, and Gatsby being 3-day predictions.

 

I definitely think it could happen. I'll be very surprised if the 4-day is under $300m. But I think BTC may be over-shooting TH3. Same for Epic.


Edited by ShawnMR, 21 May 2013 - 12:27 PM.

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#4 CJohn

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:31 PM

The Hangover Part III

OD - 16M

Fri-Sunday - 47M

Fri-Monday - 61M

 

Fast & Furious 6

Fri-Sunday - 89M

Fri-Monday - 110M

 

Epic

Fri-Sunday - 27M

Fri-Monday - 35M

 

Star Trek Into Darkness

Fri-Sunday - 32.5M

Fri-Monday - 40M

 

Iron Man 3

Fri-Sunday - 20M

Fri-Monday - 25.5M

 

The Great Gatsby

Fri-Sunday - 13.5M

Fri-Monday - 17M


Edited by CJohn, 21 May 2013 - 12:32 PM.

Next 4 Weeks Predictions (Updates on Mondays and Thursdays):

- Horrible Bosses 2 - 23/37/85 | Penguins of Madagascar - 21/33/101

- The Pyramid - 5/11

- Exodus: Gods and Kings - 43/145 | Top Five - 4/9 

- The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - 61/94/292 | Night at the Museum 3 - 22/101 | Annie - 15/73


#5 grey ghost

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 12:57 PM

The Hangover Part III

OD - 16M

Fri-Sunday - 47M

Fri-Monday - 61M

 

Fast & Furious 6

Fri-Sunday - 89M

Fri-Monday - 110M

 

Epic

Fri-Sunday - 27M

Fri-Monday - 35M

 

Star Trek Into Darkness

Fri-Sunday - 32.5M

Fri-Monday - 40M

 

Iron Man 3

Fri-Sunday - 20M

Fri-Monday - 25.5M

 

The Great Gatsby

Fri-Sunday - 13.5M

Fri-Monday - 17M

 

 

Is that teh record?  :ph34r:


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#6 Biggestgeekever

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 01:00 PM

I definitely think it could happen. I'll be very surprised if the 4-day is under $300m. But I think BTC may be over-shooting TH3. Same for Epic.

Agreed on The Hangover (especially their Thursday prediction. I'm expecting less than half of their predicted $26m), but not on Epic. It's the first animated film since The Croods, and for all talk of Iron Man 3 playing like a family film, The Croods fell only 37.5% against it and has held up incredibly well since. The market seems to be wide open for Epic.

 

And it should go without saying that I'm expecting Furious 6 to do better than $100m over the extended weekend.  :D


Edited by Biggestgeekever, 21 May 2013 - 01:00 PM.


#7 BKB #1

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 03:39 PM

Drinking and Memorial Day Weekend go hand in hand, so I expect people will be stupid enough to see TH3.. :popcorn: 


Edited by BKB IS THE MANDARIN, 21 May 2013 - 03:39 PM.

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#8 Jandrew In The Mist

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 03:59 PM

I think we're underestimating Epic, especially if those good reviews hold. I wouldn't be surprised to see it over Trek. It's the sole only release for families since Croods and till MU. And eventhough we might not - kids, and some parents, love those pop culture starts and their voices will be draws.


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#9 Neo

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 05:20 PM

BTC seems to be predicting this will be the most attended Memorial Day weekend; their top 6 prediction comes out to $289m, and that's with Trek, Iron Man 3, and Gatsby being 3-day predictions.

 

http://forums.boxoff...-breaker/page-6

 

 


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#10 Sam

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 06:44 PM

So a movie can totally open to 300M+ through a 4-day weekend domestically if it is the only movie playing across all screens on that weekend?  :P



#11 Lordmandeep

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 07:07 PM

Likely well over 200 for sure ^^^^

 

 

250 I think. 


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#12 lab276

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 08:12 PM

I think beating 2004 will be too tough (impossible), but a top 5 finnish looks very likely.

#13 lab276

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 08:15 PM

Disregard.

Edited by lab276, 21 May 2013 - 08:26 PM.


#14 WileECoyote

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Posted 21 May 2013 - 10:05 PM

Looking for meltdown gifs if this weekend falls apart :stirthepot:

#15 CJohn

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 01:48 AM

Looking for meltdown gifs if this weekend falls apart :stirthepot:

 

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Next 4 Weeks Predictions (Updates on Mondays and Thursdays):

- Horrible Bosses 2 - 23/37/85 | Penguins of Madagascar - 21/33/101

- The Pyramid - 5/11

- Exodus: Gods and Kings - 43/145 | Top Five - 4/9 

- The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies - 61/94/292 | Night at the Museum 3 - 22/101 | Annie - 15/73


#16 Captain Craig

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Posted 22 May 2013 - 05:02 PM

Just asking if this is relevant at all. I know in the winter we account for large areas snowed in, or if flooding or wildfires happened in a large enough area. 

So..Will we need to handicap this weekend with the OK theater being out of the equation? It is listed as one of the 15 biggest? Few millions? Few tens of millions? Do we know how much it contributes to the grosses to matter? 


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