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Paramount's Christmas 2015 Strategy For MISSION IMPOSSIBLE 5: Wise Or Ill-Advised?


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#1 ShawnMR

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:15 AM

Paramount announced last week that Tom Cruise's Ethan Hunt will return in Mission: Impossible 5 on Christmas Day in 2015. At first glance, the date makes perfect sense: Ghost Protocol revitalized the franchise with its successful 2011 holiday run, serving out the first non-summer launch for the series. But Ghost Protocol didn't have to compete with a little movie called Star Wars: Episode VII.

 

What's Paramount's play here?

 

They seem to be aiming for a repeat of December 2009's record market performance driven by a co-existence of marquee blockbuster titles. James Cameron's Avatar (having opened December 18) was beginning its long and fruitful run while, simultaneously, Warner Bros. and Guy Ritchie successfully reimagined Sherlock Holmes over Christmas weekend (to say nothing of Fox's success with Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel). Holmes may not have won first place, but it was a big hit under Avatar's shadow nonetheless.

 

Unfortunately, Mission: Impossible 5 faces a tougher uphill battle than the famous detective. Regardless of your opinion on Tom Cruise, his public image has taken another hit recently. His box office stature sharply contrasts that of Robert Downey, Jr., who was fresh off the breakout success of Iron Man and hitting the stride of his career resurgence when Sherlock Holmes opened. Contrary to any 1990s status quo, Cruise's drawing power just isn't what Downey's is anymore (as evidenced by the lackluster domestic box office performances of Jack Reacher and Oblivion)... (more)

 

Full story: http://www.boxoffice...-or-ill-advised


Edited by ShawnMR, 20 November 2013 - 09:15 AM.

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#2 firedeep

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:18 AM

Good article.

 

SW7 is not of end of the world. It is just another random blockbuster that comes all along. MI5 will do fine.

 

End of my opinion.



#3 John Marston

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:19 AM

I think Memorial Day 2015 is a better date

#4 lilmac

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:26 AM

Great analysis Shawn.  I think Episode VII's 2nd weekend is going to be HUGE.  I would be surprised if it is less than $60m.  There's but so much $$ to go around and MI5's is going after some of the same audiences.  It makes sense, as John Marston recommended, to move it to May (2015 or 2016).  2016 is probably better as it won't have to deal with Tomorrow-land and Age of Ultron.


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#5 Neo

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:30 AM

Great analysis Shawn.  I think Episode VII's 2nd weekend is going to be HUGE.  I would be surprised if it is less than $60m.  There's but so much $$ to go around and MI5's is going after some of the same audiences.  It makes sense, as John Marston recommended, to move it to May (2015 or 2016).  2016 is probably better as it won't have to deal with Tomorrow-land and Age of Ultron.

Look at SH/Avatar, Avatar was at 70M on its 2nd wknd and SH still was 2nd, but was on its way to 200M+


You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office

 

Unless Cameron offers SMELL-O-VISION with AVATAR 2, It's not doing more than 400M Plus ..  And YES, I'll bet AVATAR 2 doesn't do more than at best 425M Domestic

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#6 Captain Jack Sparrow

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:33 AM

It will be fine, even if it turns out not that good.

Hobbit 3 will be lucky to hit $240m


#7 narniadis

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:33 AM

I think it's a smart move in all actuality - SW isn't the be all end all franchise that some would like to think and as pointed out 2009 is a great example of expanded market place. As it is I think there is a risk of the dec 2015 market being slow due to studios avoiding Star Wars so it's nice to see one studio saying we don't care.
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#8 Neo

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:34 AM

I think it's a smart move in all actuality - SW isn't the be all end all franchise that some would like to think and as pointed out 2009 is a great example of expanded market place. As it is I think there is a risk of the dec 2015 market being slow due to studios avoiding Star Wars so it's nice to see one studio saying we don't care.

So what would be the end all franchise?


You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office

 

Unless Cameron offers SMELL-O-VISION with AVATAR 2, It's not doing more than 400M Plus ..  And YES, I'll bet AVATAR 2 doesn't do more than at best 425M Domestic

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#9 lilmac

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:35 AM

Look at SH/Avatar, Avatar was at 70M on its 2nd wknd and SH still was 2nd, but was on its way to 200M+

 

Why not have Episode VII and Avengers release around the same time then?  There is a reason you distance yourself from big competitors going after the same audience.  Both Titanic and Avatar did well but didn't cannibalize the 2nd place guys (Tomorrow Never Dies and Sherlock).  Sometimes that can backfire..


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#10 lilmac

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:36 AM

So what would be the end all franchise?

 

 

Good question.  Star Wars is as four quandrant as it gets.  Old ladies and young men will be sitting side by side in packed theaters across the world.  


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#11 narniadis

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:36 AM

So what would be the end all franchise?

There isn't one.
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#12 Neo

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:40 AM

Why not have Episode VII and Avengers release around the same time then?  There is a reason you distance yourself from big competitors going after the same audience.  Both Titanic and Avatar did well but didn't cannibalize the 2nd place guys (Tomorrow Never Dies and Sherlock).  Sometimes that can backfire..

The market place isn't big enough for them to get their maximum return. Mi5/VII, Avatar/SH makes sense especially during the holiday when legs are king. Like those examples it didn't backfire for reasons that can be attributed to the season of the releases.


You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office

 

Unless Cameron offers SMELL-O-VISION with AVATAR 2, It's not doing more than 400M Plus ..  And YES, I'll bet AVATAR 2 doesn't do more than at best 425M Domestic

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#13 John Marston

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 09:47 AM

in my opinion, the holiday season is too crowded now. The summer feels relatively empty. MI5 should aim for summer 2015 instead



#14 Empire

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 11:54 AM

I think MI5 will be fine. I think it can still get over 200m against SW7 with winter/holiday legs. They don't need to move. Like Neo already stated SH still did 200m against Avatar. MI5 can surely do the same.


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#15 John Marston

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 11:55 AM

no way is MI5 going to make as much as Ghost Protocol domestically. 



#16 Neo

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 12:01 PM

no way is MI5 going to make as much as Ghost Protocol domestically. 

Why not? Can be the Holmes to VII. With a 62M OW its all but guaranteed.


You need to check into rehab if you think TA2 isn't going to make a dent in AVATAR 2's box office

 

Unless Cameron offers SMELL-O-VISION with AVATAR 2, It's not doing more than 400M Plus ..  And YES, I'll bet AVATAR 2 doesn't do more than at best 425M Domestic

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#17 John Marston

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 01:07 PM

May 2016 would be the 20 th anniversary of the film series

#18 lilmac

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 01:31 PM

There isn't one.

 

 

The Narnia franchise maybe?


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#19 lilmac

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 01:31 PM

May 2016 would be the 20 th anniversary of the film series

 

 

Ok, that makes me feel old.


I believe in God as I believe that the sun has risen: not only because I see it, but because by it I see everything else.

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#20 acetabulum7

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Posted 20 November 2013 - 02:14 PM

The only real competition is themselves.  If they're both good movies (or at least, "attractive" movies), they'll both succeed.

 

As we all know, Winter is the best time for multiple franchises to come out, since people have more free time and are willing to go to the theaters more often.

 

As far as Cruise's star power goes for MI:5, I don't think it really makes a big difference.  If it's a good movie and Cruise can entertain, then people will watch, regardless of the tabloids.


Edited by acetabulum7, 20 November 2013 - 02:14 PM.



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