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BO.com Analysis: NEIGHBORS, 22 JUMP STREET Poised to Lead Summer of Comedy; Will TAMMY, SEX TAPE, or LET'S BE COPS Break Out?


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#1 ShawnMR

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:09 PM

As Neighbors prepares to move in with a bang this weekend, we're taking a look at this summer's packed comedy line-up. Recent years have given movie fans a steady output of breakouts in the genre (especially the R-rated breed), and the next few months shouldn't break from that trend.

 

Notable points include the emerging legacy of "the Judd Apatow crew", which will be ever-present this summer as Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, and Jason Segel each headline their latest works. Also, Universal looks to continue its strong start to 2014, while Sony has three potential winners lined up for the heart of summer. 

 

Neighbors (Universal)May 9

 

Seth Rogen and Zac Efron headline this hit-in-waiting about new parents battling the fraternity next door, and the combination of the two leading men should serve to attract both men and women.  Fandango pre-sales suggest an opening near $40 million, possibly more, could be in store. Opening weekend demand will lean more toward Rogen's established fan base, but the film's reportedly strong balance of gags and heart indicates Neighbors will play well in the weeks ahead. As the first widely appealing comedy to open since winter, the stars are aligning for Neighbors in a way that proved advantageous for summer releases like Knocked UpThe HangoverBridesmaids, and Ted... (more)

 

Full story: http://www.boxoffice...ummer-of-comedy


Edited by ShawnMR, 08 May 2014 - 12:09 PM.

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#2 baumer

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:12 PM

I'm really surprised you don't think TLAMT is going to be one of the top films of the ones mentioned.  The first one made almost 100 million and Hart is hot this year which probably means an opening of 40 mill or more.  With summer legs it gets past 120.  That might be enough to get it top three.


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#3 stuart360

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:17 PM

You forgot 'Jupiter Ascending' off your list Shawn.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

:ph34r:


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#4 kitik

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:21 PM

22 Jump Street is going to be huge.

 

Not only do I expect a large opening weekend, but I think it's pretty much a lock for 200M.



#5 baumer

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:22 PM

22 Jump Street is going to be huge.

 

Not only do I expect a large opening weekend, but I think it's pretty much a lock for 200M.

 

That's a huge number for a comedy.  You're talking Hangover numbers.  I don't think it will be that big.


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#6 CoolioD1

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:24 PM

Let's Be Cops looks like a butt.

 

I'm sure the rest will do pretty well. Just hopefully not that one.



#7 grim22

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:31 PM

THR weighs in: http://www.hollywood...ing-soft-702409

 

Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore's upcoming Blended may have trouble crossing $25 million in its domestic debut, based on early tracking. The comedy reunites the two stars for the first time since box office hit 50 First Dates a decade ago. Blended opens opposite goliath X-Men: Days of Future Past on May 23, the beginning of the long Memorial Day holiday weekend. Bullish box office observers believe Fox's Days of Future Pastcould approach $125 million in its four-day debut.

Also opening on May 30 is Seth MacFarlane's R-rated Western comedy A Million Ways to Die in the West. Early tracking is good for the Universal and Media Rights Capital movie, which should open north of $35 million, a solid start considering it's a Western, a difficult genre. That won't match the $54.4 million debut of MacFarlane's Ted on the same weekend in 2012, but that film had the advantage of starring Mark Wahlberg and a fuzzy teddy bear.

 


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#8 baumer

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:32 PM

Tracking is such a crap shoot, they are wrong just as much as they are right.


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#9 #ED

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:33 PM

No mention of Blended? Seems legit. 

 

Poor Sandler. When was the last time any of his movies became profitable or funny?



#10 CJohn

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:36 PM

Lets Be Cops is gonna gross 30-40M, IMO. 


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#11 baumer

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:37 PM

No mention of Blended? Seems legit. 

 

Poor Sandler. When was the last time any of his movies became profitable or funny?

 

Last summer.  


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#12 #ED

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:39 PM

Last summer.  

 

Grown Ups 2 doesn't count!  :P

 

:ph34r:



#13 kitik

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:45 PM

That's a huge number for a comedy.  You're talking Hangover numbers.

 

 

That's why I used the word "huge". Tracking for 22JS should be at least 15-20 million higher for OW than Neighbors. And lots of people are thinking 40 for Neighbors. Throw in some summer weekdays and legs and it should easily hit 200. I'm not sure if it'll quite do Hangover 2 numbers, but it might get relatively close.



#14 Pokearcher

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:51 PM

Tammy will do well, Sex Tape will also do good business and Let's Not Be Cops looks to be a bust.


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#15 CJohn

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:55 PM

One of these has to bomb or disappoint, IMO. I am betting on Lets Be Cops bombing and Sex Tape disappointing with 50-60M.


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#16 stuart360

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 12:57 PM

When was the last time a Cameron Diaz comedy bombed?, its not going to happen.


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#17 Captain Jack Sparrow

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 01:07 PM

I think Let's Be Cops will be a surprise hit, trailer has been receiving great responses from audiences at theaters I attend.

Hobbit 3 will be lucky to hit $240m


#18 kitik

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 01:14 PM

The thing with Lets Be Cops is that it's clearly a smaller movie than the others. Smaller names and expectations. If it finishes in last place out of all these comedies but still makes 50M, that's a win. No one is expecting it to put up 22JS numbers.

 

 

(Seriously folks, 22 Jump Street is going to be big.)



#19 Films

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 01:16 PM

Great great article

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#20 Boner Omega

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Posted 08 May 2014 - 01:32 PM

I think Let's Be Cops will be a surprise hit, trailer has been receiving great responses from audiences at theaters I attend.

 

I think it's the The Change-Up of 2014.  The last "R" comedy in a summer full of them, most of which will do pretty good.




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