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Box Office Fact or Fiction: Week 16 w/ MGS, 4815162342 and ChD. Sony hack, Hobbit, Star Wars and more.

Poll 12/18  

12 members have voted

  1. 1. Who answered better for the week of 12/18

    • 4815162342
      6
    • Michael Gary Scottt
      1
    • ChD
      3


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Hello everyone and welcome to week 16 of Box Office Fact or Fiction. First off, lets congratulate last time's winner Empire (by 1 vote over Jay Hollywood). Congratulations Empire, you win a billion internet points

 

The 3 contributors for this week are;

 

4815162342

Michael Gary Scottt (with 3 t's for some reason)

ChD

 

Let's get started.

 

1. Hobbit 3 will crack 100M for the 5 day start

 

hobbit_the_battle_of_the_five_armies_com

 

4815162342 FACT. When you look at international numbers, the great majority show an increase in admissions for BOTFA over Smaug and I think that trend will continue domestically. Why? Three reasons. First, Smaug has been generally better received by audiences and the home rental crowd than AUJ had been, which increases that group's desire to see the next installment. Second, the marketing for BOFTA has been substantially better than Smaug's, which had iffy theatrical trailers and rather lackluster TV presence, which means awareness and persuasion for the film will be higher than Smaug's. And third, never discount the finale factor. The marketing has made a big deal about this being the final adventure into Middle-Earth and that's going to whip up nostalgia and good vibes about one last journey to theaters for the franchise.

 

Add all that together and you have a recipe for a strong opening day. Unless the 3-day drops by a sizable margin from Smaug's, I can't see how it misses the 100m mark.

 

 

MGSFICTION. I think the final Hobbit film will follow the trend of disappointing domestic numbers but increase internationally. I just feel if it's not a super hero film American audiences won't care. 

 

 

ChD: FACT I think it does stand a chance, although barely. I think the fact that it's the finale, and the last Middle Earth movie (at least in the foreseeable future) will boost it quite some. It could end up grossing 1B worldwide and even 300M DOM again, if the marketing connected with general audiences.

 

 

0 for 1

 

 

 

2. Jeff Nichols would be a great choice to direct an Aquaman movie

 

4815162342 FACT. Jeff Nichols is a very talented director who has a strong visual eye and creative vision, something that would be of utmost necessity for a film set in a watery world and all the possibilities such an environment has to offer.

 

BIGGER FACT

 

He definitely could do so much better than Aquaman.

 

 

MGSFICTION. Mud was one of the most overrated films last year so I hope they pick someone else. 

 

 

ChD: FACT I've only seen a movie from this director and I liked it. I can't really dive into this as I'm unfamiliar with both Aquaman and Nichols' himself, but he's talented enough to be able to take this on.

 

 

0 for 2

 

 

 

3. "Star Wars 7" will open to over 150M 3 day OW this time next year

 

 

4815162342 BAUMER'S 2015 WINTER GAME'S FIRST QUESTION

 

FACT? SURE, FACT

 

December is known for its deflated openings due to audiences spreading out their moviegoing through the Christmas/New Year's holiday period. Return of the King if it had opened on a Friday probably would have had a mid-90s opening. And that was quite a hyped film in 2003. Now, with 12 years of inflation, 3D surcharges, increased IMAX (and LieMAX) presence, and an insane amount of time to build up hype and awareness, the anticipation and eagerness by many to see Episode VII is going to be immense. Do I really think we'll get to 150 million? No, probably not, something between 125-140 seems most likely. But this is Fact or Fiction, so you gotta go big or go home.

 

 

MGSFACT. Episode 7 will be my most anticipated movie ever so I may be a little biased. Having said that just look how much an 88 second star wars teaser has already done just wait until the promotion blitz gets started. Star Wars will be huge and will take down Avatar.

 

 

ChD: FICTION No way this happens. I highly doubt it'll reach those numbers on Christmas, but I'll give it legs and generally over performing days between Christmas and New Year, but no way in hell does it open to 150M.

 

 

0 for 3

 

 

SWITCH!!

Spin-arrows.gif

 

 

 

4. It was ethically and morally wrong for the media to pore through and report on personal emails from the Sony hack

 

 

MGSFACT. It was definitely wrong for those leaked emails to be reported on. While it may have been entertaining it is wrong and just as bad as the leaked celebrity photos. 

 

 

ChD: FACT I agree that it was. Those documents were private for a reason and the media going through them just shows how they are hungry for money and try to get as many page clicks as possible, even if that means doing bad things. Still, in the end some good came out of it as it revealed that even in Hollywood women earn less than money (there were some other things, but no need to get into them)

 

 

4815162342 FICTION

 

Was it a crime for the emails to be leaked? Absolutely. But once they were leaked, the sad truth is that they became a legitimate news story, not just about the hack itself, but about the way a major Hollywood studio and its executives conduct business. The media has no obligation to sit on a story because the person who gave it to them obtained it illegally, so long as they did not play any part in obtaining the materials. Ethically, it is not an issue, because of the strong protections and customary privileges afforded to the media. Morally it's a far more gray area, but, again, what's wrong for many is kosher for the media, and because it is far too difficult to pick and choose which emails really should not be talked about, you have to err on the side of the free press. Once something is out there, it can't be brought back in, and ignoring it won't make it go away, so the media might as well report on it and give it more context than just bare words.

 

0 for 4

 

 

 

5. Into The Woods will be the highest grossing Christmas day release

 

into-the-woods-logo1.jpg

 

MGSFICTION. I would love if into the woods was the highest grossing xmas release cause of ms Kendrick but I just don't see it. I still think even with the bad reviews Annie looks like the more appealing film. 

 

 

ChD: FICTION To me, that movie looks horrible. I also think that Les Miserables premiering the same time last year also hurts its box office chances a lot, especially considering many people didn't really like that movie. The only thing that could help is star power. There are known names involved with this production and I think that will drive in the audience, but not enough to claim the top spot.

 

 

4815162342:  FACT Regardless of whether you are personally a fan, Into the Woods has buzz. It's got the combination of winter holidays, Disney marketing, and an acclaimed musical pedigree. Will it do Les Miserables numbers? No, I don't think it'll get that high, but look at what it is competing against. Unbroken was something I thought could break out huge, but its buzz both awards-wise and critically has faltered and audiences can easily follow suit. American Sniper will play well in the heartland, but it's also a platform release and if it doesn't get traction, it'll be swept aside. The Gambler is a niche film, it'll do decent business nothing more. Big Eyes is even more niche. And Annie is the sole threat, but it's reviews are toxic so family repeats over holidays will take it only so far (beyond Annie orginal unadjusted yes).

 

0 for 5

 

 

6. "Annie" will earn more than the 1982 version unadjusted (57 Million)

 

183580.jpg

 

 

MGSFACT. Annie will definitely out gross the original I'm very high on the films chances.  

 

 

ChD: FACT While this movie also looks horrible (we've been bad this year, Santa isn't happy), the fact that it's re-made from a movie that is somewhat well known, and because it is the genre that dominates Christmas usually (Family friendly), it just might out gross the old one.

 

 

4815162342 FACT  What we have here is a film that modernizes and pops a cult family classic, giving it a new spin and surge of energy to attract wholly new demos. The quality of the film is irrelevant. It will get itself a solid opening and the winter holidays should easily allow it to surge past the 57m number unless its opening is really, really low. Christmas and New Years legs are boons for all.

 

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SWITCH #2!!!

Spin-arrows.gif

 

 

 

7. The Sony hack will increase the box office take of "The Interview"  (Question was asked on Monday)

 

 

ChD: FACT The hack has gotten a lot of media attention and even if 'The Interview' isn't the reason of the hack (which is highly doubtful at this point), many people claim it to be. It also pretty much helped its views on Youtube and likes on Facebook, so this hack, as disastrous as it is for Sony, will turn them in a couple of extra bucks through The Interview.

 

 

4815162342 FACT SWINGING TOWARDS FICTION

If I had been asked this question a day ago I would have said Fact all the way. One of the oldest sayings about entertainment is that there's no such thing as bad publicity and the Sony hack allegedly over The Interview has given the film an immense amount of free marketing and awareness as the connections lie all over the Internet and the news. Then today happened, with the Guardians of Peace threatening 9/11-style terror on theaters showing the film. It's 98% puffery I am sure, but in today's climate, after Aurora and the damage done by hacks and leaks, theater chains and owners are bound to be more wary of risking a breach of their own computer files, not to mention the public being more skittish in general. So, in the end it is impossible to know for sure how much effect something like this can have, but it seems more likely now that the initial positive boost from awareness and interest could be negated to some degree by the latest news and threats.

 

 

MGSFICTION. Sony had to be cowards and not release the film at all. I hope the studio burns to the ground. I hope they lose spidey to marvel and get nothing for it. 

 

 

 

1 for 7

 

 

8. "Night at the museum 3" is an acceptable movie to be Robin Williams's final performance

 

NIght-At-The-Museum-Secret-Of-The-Tomb.j

 

ChD: FACT Look, first, let me say that I have no idea why someone needs to have his final performance in an acceptable movie. I think it is, to be honest. The first movie was great, the second one was good and this one seems to be alright as well. Still, it's not the quality that convinces me, it's the fact that his last performance is in a family movie, and we know too well how much Robin Williams loved appearing in family movie. His last performance is doing what he liked most.

 

 

4815162342:  FACT Robin Williams had a lifelong career as a comedian and he would continually return to making films aimed at making families laugh and have fun. The Night at the Museum movies, whatever their merits, have achieved that goal. So, while it certainly doesn't represent the best at comedy or drama that the late Williams had to offer, it certainly falls right into his target zone of what he wanted to achieve in so many of his outings. So on that basis, this is an acceptable last hurrah.

 

 

MGSFICTION. He is always good in this type of roles and I'm sure he will get a proper send off. 

 

 

 

1 for 8

 

 

9. The box office grosses sharply declining in 2014 was due to a lack of appealing movies for the masses

 

WESyZ1P.png

 

ChDFICTION This year had a lot of great movies coming out. Some were good but lacked good marketing (How to Train Your Dragon 2, Interstellar, Edge of Tomorrow, among others) while other movies had great marketing but were pretty bad and lacked good legs because of general audience not caring (Godzilla being the best example I can give). Then, there were movies that failed on both sides, quality, as well as marketing (Mockingjay). Yes, compared to other years, it was weak, but I blame the studios and their marketing team for this.

 

4815162342 FICTION

There have been a boatload of quality movies this year for audiences to see. The problem is that many of them were either marketed poorly, or fell outside the narrow comfort zone for the core of the US General Audience. Films like Edge of Tomorrow were utterly brilliant, but between lackluster media and many audiences not sold on the concept, they foundered on Opening Weekend. But when you look at Edge of Tomorrow's legs, you see that not only did it have strong repeat value, it also attracted strong word of mouth towards people who initially weren't sold on it. Now there were a few attempted blockbusters that simply were poor decisions from Jump Street, but they're not the core cause of why audience numbers dropped. Some years, a mix of general economics, mediocre studio marketing, and particularized comfort zones make it hard for a lot of good movies to get the attention they deserve in theaters.

 

 

MGSFACT. Other than a few movies this summer I have not found this year's schedule appealing. 

 

1 for 9
 
Well, these guys agreed on next to nothing this week. Interesting. I don't think I have had 3 people disagreeing so much in any column so far. 
 

Feel free to join in and provide your answers in this thread as well. Please do vote as to who you felt answered the questions better. Poll is at the top of this thread.

 

ALSO, please include any questions which you think should be asked to the next 3 contributors. I realize that most of the questions asked are based on what I follow and would like to incorporate more viewpoints into the feature. Please leave your probable questions as comments, or PM them to me and I will include them for the next edition.

 

I would like to thank Numbers, MGS and ChD for taking time out to provide their opinions here. Thanks a lot guys.

 

I am looking for participants, please let me know if you would be interested in providing your opinions for future editions of this column.

 

Until Next Time.

 
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Numbers had the best answers by far I thought, so he gets my vote. He just took more time explaining his answers which I like better than just a quick response.

Oh, and I just saw I won last week. I am now 3-0 in these things. :)

Edited by Empire
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Into the Woods won't be the biggest Christmas release? Lol wut? People drunk while answering this or what :lol: ? Are they expecting Unbroken to be bigger :lol: ?

 

I expected The Interview to be a big box office surprise but... that's out the window.

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Numbers had the best answers by far I thought, so he gets my vote. He just took more time explaining his answers which I like better than just a quick response.

Oh, and I just saw I won last week. I am now 3-0 in these things. :)

 

You are "The Undertaker" of this feature.

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