Jump to content

peludo

Adjusting Exchange Rates... (First post updated with Jason's new list)

Recommended Posts



I have updated the list. There are 54 films adjusted with today, March 21st, exchange rates. I have already ajusted some 2014 films like Hobbit 3, Mockingjay I, Guardians of the Galaxy and Interstellar. There are just 14 more movies since first list. From now, I will include more films more quickly.

 

I have included both Star Wars and E.T. without adjusting since I have not found available data of exchange rates in 1977 and 1982. I will try to find out that info.

Edited by peludo
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Interesting list. Combining this with inflation-adjusted DOM totals (adjusting to 2014 avg, not BOM's current 2015 avg which is just the Q4 2014 avg and is thus too high) here is how your list orders when taking U.S. inflation into account (and I know there are films missing, I just did the ones in your list)

This gets a little bit closer to my impossible dream of determining an all-time worldwide admissions ranking, at least because all OS grosses are adjusted to the same USD exchange rates (though ticket price inflation in other countries is still not accounted for)

#. FILM: Original OS - Original DOM - Original WW ==> New OS - New DOM - New WW

1. Titanic: 1.528b - 659m - 2.187b ==> 1.435b - 1.107b - 2.542b

2. Avatar: 2.027b - 760.5m - 2.788b ==> 1.666b - 794.6m - 2.461b

3. Star Wars: 314.4m - 461m - 775.4m ==> 314.4m - 1.455b - 1.770b(there are not available data to adjust)

4. E.T. The Extra-terrestrial: 357.8m - 435.1m - 792.9m ==> 357.8m - 1.159b - 1.517b(there are not available data to adjust)

5. The Avengers: 895m - 623m - 1.518b ==>745m - 627.2m - 1.372b

6. Jurassic Park: 626.7m - 402.5m - 1.029b ==> 545.7m - 751m - 1.297b

7. The Phantom Menace: 552m - 474.5m - 1.027b ==> 524.4m - 737.8m - 1.262b

8. The Lion King: 564.7m - 422.8m - 987.5m ==> 486.7m - 728.3m - 1.215b

9. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone: 657m - 317.6m - 975m ==> 745.5m - 456.8m - 1.202b

10. The Return of the King: 742m - 377.8m - 1.119b ==> 665.9m - 503.6m - 1.170b

11. Frozen: 873m - 400.7m - 1.274b ==> 740m - 400.7m - 1.141b

12. Deathly Hallows II: 960m - 381m - 1.341b ==> 745.7m - 392m - 1.138b

13. Iron Man 3: 806m - 409m - 1.215b ==> 688.3m - 398.8m - 1.087b

14. Fellowship of the Ring: 556m - 315.5m - 871.5m ==> 635.9m - 447.7m - 1.084b

15. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 642.9m - 423.3m - 1.066b ==> 543m - 528m - 1.071m

16. The Two Towers: 583.5m - 342.5m - 926m ==> 593m - 471.6m - 1.065b

17. Transformers 4: 846m - 245.4m - 1.091b ==>767m - 245.4m - 1.012b

18. The Dark Knight Rises: 636.3m - 448.1m - 1.084b ==> 541.4m - 470.6m - 1.012b

19. Transformers 3: 771.4 - 352.4m - 1.123b ==> 644.9m - 361.6m - 1.007b

20. Shrek 2: 478.6m - 441.2m - 919.8m ==> 422.4m - 580.5m - 1.003b

21. Spider-Man: 418m - 403.7m - 821.7m ==> 429.4m - 567.7m - 997.1m

22. Finding Nemo: 555.9m - 380.8m - 936.7m ==> 493.5m - 503.5m - 997m

23. Independence Day: 511.2m - 306.2m - 817.4m ==> 430.8m - 565.9m - 996.7m

24. Chamber of Secrets: 617m - 262m - 879m ==> 625.2m - 367m - 992.2m

25. Skyfall: 804.2m - 304.4m - 1.109b ==> 679.3m - 308.9m - 988.2m

26. The Dark Knight: 469.7m - 534.9m - 1.005b ==> 361.7m - 608.3m - 970m

27. Toy Story 3: 648m - 415m - 1.063b ==> 530.3m - 426.5m - 956.8m

28. The Hobbit 3: 700m - 255m - 955m ==> 672.8m - 255m - 927.8m

29. Goblet of Fire: 606.9m - 290m - 896.9m ==> 552.7m - 369.1m - 921.8m

30. Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 654m - 309.4m - 963.4m ==> 534.7m - 367.4m - 902.1m

31. Revenge of the Sith: 468.5m - 380.3m - 848.8m ==> 416.7m - 484.7m - 901.4m

32. Alice in Wonderland: 691.3m - 334.2m - 1.025b ==> 551.2m - 343.4m - 894.6m

33. The Hobbit 1: 714m - 303m - 1.017b ==> 582.3m - 309.1m - 891.4m

34. Despicable Me 2: 602.7m - 368.1m - 970.8m ==> 505m - 383.1m - 888.1m

35. Order of the Phoenix: 647.8m - 292m - 939.9m ==> 528.4m - 346.8m - 875.2m

36. Spider-Man 2: 410.2m - 373.6m - 783.8m ==> 368.0m - 491.5m - 859.5m

37. Spider-Man 3: 554.3m - 336.5m - 890.8m ==> 452.5m - 399.6m - 852.1m

38. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: 804.6m - 241.5m - 1.045.7b ==> 605.2m - 244.5m - 849.7m

39. The Hobbit 2: 702m - 258.4m - 960.4m ==> 585.1m - 257.5m - 842.6m

40. Half-Blood Prince: 632.5m - 302m - 934.4m ==> 508.4m - 330.6m - 839m

41. Deathly Hallows I: 664.3m - 296m - 960.3m ==> 535.2m - 302.2m - 837.4m

42. Transformers 2: 434.2m - 402.1m - 836.3m ==> 392.7m - 440.4m - 833.1m

43. Prisoner of Azkaban: 547.1m - 249.5m - 796.7m ==> 489.0m - 328.3m - 817.3m

44. Catching Fire: 440.2m - 424.7m - 864.9m ==> 367.5m - 417.6m - 785.1m

45. Inception: 533m - 292.6m - 825.5m ==> 462.3m - 300.7m 763m

46. Ice Age 4: 715.9m - 161.3m - 877.2m ==> 586.5m - 169.3m - 755.8m

47. Shrek 3: 476.2m - 322.7m - 799.0m ==> 364.3m - 383.2m - 747.5m

48. Ice Age 3: 690.1m - 196.6m - 886.7m ==> 528.5m - 215.3m - 743.8m

49. Mockingjay I: 415m - 337.1m - 752.1m ==> 384.9m - 337.1m - 722.0m

50. Guardians of the Galaxy: 441m - 333.2m - 774.2m ==> 386.4m - 333.2m - 719.6m

51. Twilight - Breaking Dawn 2: 537.4m - 292.3m - 829.7m ==> 420.5m - 296.7m - 717.2m

52. Indiana Jones 4: 469.5m - 317.1m - 786.6m ==> 346.4m - 360.8m - 707.2m

53. Fast & Furious 6: 550.0m - 238.7m - 788.7m ==> 462.6m - 232.7m - 695.3m

54. Interstellar: 484.7m - 188.0m - 672.7m ==> 464.8m - 188.0m - 652.9m

Edited by TServo2049
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Interesting list. Combining this with inflation-adjusted DOM totals (adjusting to 2014 avg, not BOM's current 2015 avg which is just the Q4 2014 avg and is thus too high) here is how your list orders when taking U.S. inflation into account (and I know there are films missing, I just did the ones in your list)

This gets a little bit closer to my impossible dream of determining an all-time worldwide admissions ranking, at least because all OS grosses are adjusted to the same USD exchange rates (though ticket price inflation in other countries is still not accounted for)

#. FILM: Original OS - Original DOM - Original WW ==> New OS - New DOM - New WW

1. Titanic: 1.528b - 659m - 2.187b ==> 1.435b - 1.107b - 2.542b

2. Avatar: 2.027b - 760.5m - 2.788b ==> 1.666b - 794.6m - 2.461b

3. Star Wars: 314.4m - 461m - 775.4m ==> 314.4m - 1.455b - 1.770b(there are not available data to adjust)

4. E.T. The Extra-terrestrial: 357.8m - 435.1m - 792.9m ==> 357.8m - 1.159b - 1.517b(there are not available data to adjust)

5. The Avengers: 895m - 623m - 1.518b ==>745m - 627.2m - 1.372b

6. Jurassic Park: 626.7m - 402.5m - 1.029b ==> 545.7m - 751m - 1.297b

7. The Phantom Menace: 552m - 474.5m - 1.027b ==> 524.4m - 737.8m - 1.262b

8. The Lion King: 564.7m - 422.8m - 987.5m ==> 486.7m - 728.3m - 1.215b

9. Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone: 657m - 317.6m - 975m ==> 745.5m - 456.8m - 1.202b

10. The Return of the King: 742m - 377.8m - 1.119b ==> 665.9m - 503.6m - 1.170b

11. Frozen: 873m - 400.7m - 1.274b ==> 740m - 400.7m - 1.141b

12. Deathly Hallows II: 960m - 381m - 1.341b ==> 745.7m - 392m - 1.138b

13. Iron Man 3: 806m - 409m - 1.215b ==> 688.3m - 398.8m - 1.087b

14. Fellowship of the Ring: 556m - 315.5m - 871.5m ==> 635.9m - 447.7m - 1.084b

15. Pirates of the Caribbean 2: 642.9m - 423.3m - 1.066b ==> 543m - 528m - 1.071m

16. The Two Towers: 583.5m - 342.5m - 926m ==> 593m - 471.6m - 1.065b

17. Transformers 4: 846m - 245.4m - 1.091b ==>767m - 245.4m - 1.012b

18. The Dark Knight Rises: 636.3m - 448.1m - 1.084b ==> 541.4m - 470.6m - 1.012b

19. Transformers 3: 771.4 - 352.4m - 1.123b ==> 644.9m - 361.6m - 1.007b

20. Shrek 2: 478.6m - 441.2m - 919.8m ==> 422.4m - 580.5m - 1.003b

21. Spider-Man: 418m - 403.7m - 821.7m ==> 429.4m - 567.7m - 997.1m

22. Finding Nemo: 555.9m - 380.8m - 936.7m ==> 493.5m - 503.5m - 997m

23. Independence Day: 511.2m - 306.2m - 817.4m ==> 430.8m - 565.9m - 996.7m

24. Chamber of Secrets: 617m - 262m - 879m ==> 625.2m - 367m - 992.2m

25. Skyfall: 804.2m - 304.4m - 1.109b ==> 679.3m - 308.9m - 988.2m

26. The Dark Knight: 469.7m - 534.9m - 1.005b ==> 361.7m - 608.3m - 970m

27. Toy Story 3: 648m - 415m - 1.063b ==> 530.3m - 426.5m - 956.8m

28. The Hobbit 3: 700m - 255m - 955m ==> 672.8m - 255m - 927.8m

29. Goblet of Fire: 606.9m - 290m - 896.9m ==> 552.7m - 369.1m - 921.8m

30. Pirates of the Caribbean 3: 654m - 309.4m - 963.4m ==> 534.7m - 367.4m - 902.1m

31. Revenge of the Sith: 468.5m - 380.3m - 848.8m ==> 416.7m - 484.7m - 901.4m

32. Alice in Wonderland: 691.3m - 334.2m - 1.025b ==> 551.2m - 343.4m - 894.6m

33. The Hobbit 1: 714m - 303m - 1.017b ==> 582.3m - 309.1m - 891.4m

34. Despicable Me 2: 602.7m - 368.1m - 970.8m ==> 505m - 383.1m - 888.1m

35. Order of the Phoenix: 647.8m - 292m - 939.9m ==> 528.4m - 346.8m - 875.2m

36. Spider-Man 2: 410.2m - 373.6m - 783.8m ==> 368.0m - 491.5m - 859.5m

37. Spider-Man 3: 554.3m - 336.5m - 890.8m ==> 452.5m - 399.6m - 852.1m

38. Pirates of the Caribbean 4: 804.6m - 241.5m - 1.045.7b ==> 605.2m - 244.5m - 849.7m

39. The Hobbit 2: 702m - 258.4m - 960.4m ==> 585.1m - 257.5m - 842.6m

40. Half-Blood Prince: 632.5m - 302m - 934.4m ==> 508.4m - 330.6m - 839m

41. Deathly Hallows I: 664.3m - 296m - 960.3m ==> 535.2m - 302.2m - 837.4m

42. Transformers 2: 434.2m - 402.1m - 836.3m ==> 392.7m - 440.4m - 833.1m

43. Prisoner of Azkaban: 547.1m - 249.5m - 796.7m ==> 489.0m - 328.3m - 817.3m

44. Catching Fire: 440.2m - 424.7m - 864.9m ==> 367.5m - 417.6m - 785.1m

45. Inception: 533m - 292.6m - 825.5m ==> 462.3m - 300.7m 763m

46. Ice Age 4: 715.9m - 161.3m - 877.2m ==> 586.5m - 169.3m - 755.8m

47. Shrek 3: 476.2m - 322.7m - 799.0m ==> 364.3m - 383.2m - 747.5m

48. Ice Age 3: 690.1m - 196.6m - 886.7m ==> 528.5m - 215.3m - 743.8m

49. Mockingjay I: 415m - 337.1m - 752.1m ==> 384.9m - 337.1m - 722.0m

50. Guardians of the Galaxy: 441m - 333.2m - 774.2m ==> 386.4m - 333.2m - 719.6m

51. Twilight - Breaking Dawn 2: 537.4m - 292.3m - 829.7m ==> 420.5m - 296.7m - 717.2m

52. Indiana Jones 4: 469.5m - 317.1m - 786.6m ==> 346.4m - 360.8m - 707.2m

53. Fast & Furious 6: 550.0m - 238.7m - 788.7m ==> 462.6m - 232.7m - 695.3m

54. Interstellar: 484.7m - 188.0m - 672.7m ==> 464.8m - 188.0m - 652.9m

Great :) Since we have European admissions data for each movie in Lumiere web, I will post soon a WW adjusted list adding those European data. With the average inflation obtained for each movie I will extrapolate the other countries numbers to get a first estimated adjusted number. But of course, I will continue looking for more figures :)
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Well, the Lumiere data is only from the introduction of the Euro onward. I'd love to know admissions info from earlier. I know Insidekino has some German historical admissions for the all-time biggest; Jurassic Park's total 9.4 million admissions comes out to $55m now, but using the 2014 average ticket price and converting at today's exchange rate, it'd be $81.8 million.

Also, I discovered that Japanese ticket prices have actually DEflated in local currency since the early 90s, on top of the exchange rate change. (For example, Jurassic Park, which had 8.55 million admissions, is $90 million USD now, down from $120 million.) Possibly has something to do with the early 90s recession and "Lost Decade"?

So it's best to figure out the average price per country now, multiply the historical admissions by that, and then apply the exchange rate. (Thank goodness Europe has always recorded admissions, so you don't need to know anything about the pre-Euro currencies.)

Unfortunately, a true all-time list would be impossible because of all the older movies with missing data and so forth.

Edited by TServo2049
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the Lumiere data is only from the introduction of the Euro onward. I'd love to know admissions info from earlier. I know Insidekino has some German historical admissions for the all-time biggest; Jurassic Park's total 9.4 million admissions comes out to $55m now, but using the 2014 average ticket price and converting at today's exchange rate, it'd be $81.8 million.

Also, I discovered that Japanese ticket prices have actually DEflated in local currency since the early 90s, on top of the exchange rate change. (For example, Jurassic Park, which had 8.55 million admissions, is $90 million USD now, down from $120 million.) Possibly has something to do with the early 90s recession and "Lost Decade"?

So it's best to figure out the average price per country now, multiply the historical admissions by that, and then apply the exchange rate. (Thank goodness Europe has always recorded admissions, so you don't need to know anything about the pre-Euro currencies.)

Unfortunately, a true all-time list would be impossible because of all the older movies with missing data and so forth.

I am conscious of that. It is impossible to get a real adjusted list. Not even for US. But there are some great webs for some countries. In Spain, we have data from Ministry of Culture which give us attendance and gross of most movies released since 1897. It is probably not exactly accurate, but I think it is quite correct. And there are great webs for France, Germany, Switzerland or Brazil... We can get a real good list ;)
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites





Didn't find an exact number for 2015 / Germany, but comparing this two charts

 

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/Indikatoren/Konjunkturindikatoren/Preismonitor/Preismonitor.html

Freizeit = spare time

then Kinobesuch = visiting a cinema

= February

 

http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/3073/umfrage/durchschnittlicher-kinoeintrittspreis-in-deutschland-seit-2002/

 

I think it is safe to say its increasing

visually and calculated = looks like 8.21€

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Didn't find an exact number for 2015 / Germany, but comparing this two charts

 

https://www.destatis.de/DE/ZahlenFakten/Indikatoren/Konjunkturindikatoren/Preismonitor/Preismonitor.html

Freizeit = spare time

then Kinobesuch = visiting a cinema

= February

 

http://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/3073/umfrage/durchschnittlicher-kinoeintrittspreis-in-deutschland-seit-2002/

 

I think it is safe to say its increasing

visually and calculated = looks like 8.21€

Thank you :)

 

I just need some current data. I could adjust WW by inflation with 2013 and make a 2 years approximation with maybe a 2% inflation per year.

 

The problem is to not have adjusted or admissions lists of every country. I have it from US, Spain, France, Germany, UK and some others, but I am afraid that to adjust some classic films will be impossible...

Link to comment
Share on other sites







We can not know it. At least, I do not know if they will improve. Maybe an economist can have some patterns of a probable future behaviour.

It's not that the dollar has gotten very strong, it indeed has strengthened due to the recent good performance of US economy, but it has also more to do with some other currencies getting weaker.

 

For example, Euro is getting weaker and weaker due to persisting zero-growth scenario in Eurozone. Similarly Russian Ruble has fallen in value due to the recent Ukraine crisis.

 

In June 2013, when US federal reserve announced the tapering of its quantitative easing (the program it had started to boost the US economy by injecting billions of dollars in the economy every month), the global market panicked, and there began a freefall in many currencies worldwide. Some currencies were able to recover(like Indian Rupee), but some currencies continued slipping (like Brazilian Real).

 

Also, keep in mind that as developing markets have higher inflation rates, so their currencies have an inherent tendency to depreciate vis-a-vis US dollar, which is not really weakening but rather self-correction.

 

As far as future prospects go, major changes in global economies are very difficult to predict (quite impossible I'd say). But as long as US economy keeps getting strong, I don't think other currencies would appreciate much. Eurozone is yet to show any concrete signs of recovery. So we just have to live with the 'deflated' international grosses for now.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Good Summary Fake. Sometimes countries intentionally let the currency deprecate to boost exports as well. If currency is too strong then exports are hit hard and exports are essential for economies.

 

I agree dollar will depreciate next when us economy becomes weak or if there is another war in some country that US takes a lead. Both may not happen while Obama is in power. Election year in US leads to bull run anyway.

 

it may be a while again when a £ will be worth $2.


Peludo can we get a chart on opening day exchange rates for Avengers 1 so that we can look at the same for A2's OD and see what it will take to beat A1 OS.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Peludo can we get a chart on opening day exchange rates for Avengers 1 so that we can look at the same for A2's OD and see what it will take to beat A1 OS.

I have taken a few for the last week of April 2012. If you are interested in some other country, tell me:

 

Argentina: 4.4069 (49% drop relative to today)

Australia: 0.9642 (26.5% drop)

Brazil: 1.8787 (39.8% drop)

China: 6.3011 (3% increase)

Euro: 0.7571 (17.3% drop)

India: 52.9627 (14.5% drop)

Japan: 81.03 (32.1% drop)

Mexico: 13.1072 (12.2% drop)

Russia: 29.37 (48.2% drop)

South Korea: 1,136.3 (4.5% increase)

UK: 0.6185 (8.1% drop)

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



I have taken a few for the last week of April 2012. If you are interested in some other country, tell me:

 

Argentina: 4.4069 (49% drop relative to today)

Australia: 0.9642 (26.5% drop)

Brazil: 1.8787 (39.8% drop)

China: 6.3011 (3% increase)

Euro: 0.7571 (17.3% drop)

India: 52.9627 (14.5% drop)

Japan: 81.03 (32.1% drop)

Mexico: 13.1072 (12.2% drop)

Russia: 29.37 (48.2% drop)

South Korea: 1,136.3 (4.5% increase)

UK: 0.6185 (8.1% drop)

 

Thanks you covered it all. China and Korea are poised for break out. Mexico drop is small enough to not be a big impact. So is UK. Latin America could be a factor but the market is leggy and currency loss could be offset-ted by ticket price increase.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Great :) Since we have European admissions data for each movie in Lumiere web, I will post soon a WW adjusted list adding those European data. With the average inflation obtained for each movie I will extrapolate the other countries numbers to get a first estimated adjusted number. But of course, I will continue looking for more figures :)

 

I'm sure you have your own schedule of when you're planning to do things but if possible could you wait until after the boxoffice runs of Fast and Furious 7 and Avengers 2 before you do the approximate inflation adjusted list. I think it would be great if we could wait until the record 2015 summer is over before getting an approximate list tallied. I look forward to whatever and whenever you can put a list together for us lazy bums who sit back and greatly appreciate your hard work Peludo. Real analysis is what boxoffice discussion is constantly missing in many a thread and its great Peludo that your actually doing exploration into world boxoffice numbers to see how popular certain films were during their theatrical releases.

 

I just have three questions and forgive me if you have already addressed it. How do you plan to adjust for the 3D and IMAX rates? Especially for the films that didn't have a slight 3D bump in ticket prices? And will the extrapolated number be in today's exchange rates?

 

Also, how far you want to go back (in terms of decades) is up to you and I know some posters want numbers from the Sound of Music days but I would be fascinated just by the numbers of the last 20-25 years. Like Jurassic Park in 93 to now. Jurassic Park was the movie that got me interested in following boxoffice numbers and I'm interested in seeing how it theoretically inflation adjusted stacks up to the big franchise boys playing now if possible.

 

I'm curious what was the film that got you interested in boxoffice Peludo?

Edited by sensui
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.