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Japan Box Office - WKND Forecast (Rurouni Kenshin; Guardians), Kenshin Biggest OW of the Year


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#9001
keysersoze123

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Yeah judging from it's terrible OW, there was zero expectations for Interstellar straight from the start. The only sure hits for 2015 foreign releases in Japan is Cinderella, Inside out and good dinosaur (if they release it during 2015 that is). Ted was very popular, but I don't think the sequel will match it. everything else will decrease in my opinion.

 

Why so pessimistic on BH6 though? WiR only did $29 million in Japan. 

 

I think movies focused on female audience seem to do better. That is why I am bit down on BH6. I hope it does way better.

 

On interstellar I thought it will click like inception did. But market is more agnostic to sci-fi than few years back. That is why I think even Avatar sequels will drop big time from 1st film. Its an unique market for sure.


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#9002
Mojoguy

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Big Hero 6's Japan release is Dec 20th, just 4 four days from now! I can't wait!!!! :excited:


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#9003
Mojoguy

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So it looks like a movie called Yokai Watch will be huge competition for BH6 this weekend! :o


Edited by Mojoguy, 16 December 2014 - 06:02 AM.


#9004
Mojoguy

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Corpse

 

This weekend has some interesting releases, and all of them are doing great, but next weekend is looking too big to not discuss more.

So regarding the crazy Yokai Watch weekend sell outs a week early; I just finished checking 20 or so theaters for next Saturday and 17/20 are almost booked for Saturday with half of next Sunday's showtimes being over half-full already, too.

Some of the theaters have already posted notices on their websites regarding the film, too.

>Toho Cinemas Fuchu is warning customers that tickets won't be available at the door (only two showtimes remain below 50% full), and that parking space will be very limited over the weekend.

>Toho Cinemas Nishinomiya is also warning customers that tickets won't be available at the door and are asking customers to only bring one other person with them to the cinema on Saturday. They're almost booked for the weekend.

>Toho Cinemas Ebina has similar notices for customers, but they're asking those with advance tickets to check-in to the theaters 2 days in advance to help manage the crowds over the weekend.

And many of them are also noting that they'll begin opening the doors for customers with advance tickets at 7:30AM to begin seating to help manage the long lines. It's not uncommon for mega hyped films with a huge fanbase to have lines wrapped around a cinema for several blocks. People waited in line for over 2 hours just to get in the cinemas for Evangelion 3.0 and One Piece Film Z in 2012, and Yokai Watch is looking even bigger than them.

I think we really have a record breaking opening coming up next week. Over a million tickets have already been sold.

 

And to continue the Yokai Watch updates for next weekend...

The film has sold over 1.1 million tickets with 6 days to go until release day according to Toho.

Every theater has it playing on their largest screens, but it's hard to find a single one that isn't already over 50% booked for Saturday and/or Sunday next week. And quite a few of them have all their morning and day showings sold out or nearly sold out (fewer than 20 seats remain on many 400, 500, 600+ seat auditoriums for the entire day/weekend).

It looks like the film is going to push the max capacity of attendance that a film can even do next weekend, which we figure is around the 2 million admissions mark (~90% of all showtimes on the largest screens sold out over a weekend). The only thing that may keep it from doing so are the late night showings (8PM or later), which don't have too many seats taken right now (10-15 or so at most cinemas at the moment).

The weekend admissions record is currently held by The Matrix Reloaded (1.49 million).

It's like reliving the Pokemon frenzy of 1998 according to those that experienced it.



#9005
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Completely crazy to release BH6 this weekend, Yôkai Watch will likely kill all competition.

 

Also, bless Japan's reaction to the Hobbit franchise. :P



#9006
Mojoguy

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Completely crazy to release BH6 this weekend, Yôkai Watch will likely kill all competition.

 

Also, bless Japan's reaction to the Hobbit franchise. :P

I don't think Disney realized how big Yokai Watch was going to be when they put BH6 on this weekend. :slaphead:



#9007
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Yeah judging from it's terrible OW, there was zero expectations for Interstellar straight from the start. The only sure hits for 2015 foreign releases in Japan is Cinderella, Inside out and good dinosaur (if they release it during 2015 that is). Ted was very popular, but I don't think the sequel will match it. everything else will decrease in my opinion.

 

Why so pessimistic on BH6 though? WiR only did $29 million in Japan. 

 

I think Ted 2 will do pretty well. The marketing for the first movie was perfect and it's still everywhere. But then, Japanese people move on from fads really fast so who knows...



#9008
Mojoguy

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Does anyone know why Yokai Watch is SO popular in Japan? :blink:



#9009
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What? Baymax will be DOA in Japan?! Are all hopes killed for us Big Hero 6 fans??

#9010
Dingdong123

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The market can handle multiple movies through the holidays right? Urgh I'll be pissed if BH6 underperforms in Japan. Everyone is expecting some nice Japan numbers due to the look and their influence on the movie.

#9011
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What? Baymax will be DOA in Japan?! Are all hopes killed for us Big Hero 6 fans??

 

Relax, it's not DOA. The market can sustain multiple movies, especially in the summer and the holidays, even those that are targeting the same demographic. We've seen Pixar and Ghibli movies going head to head numerous time and they were all successful. Besides, movies in Japan rely heavily on legs, and I'm confident BH6 will get good WOM and hence good legs, especially because it's December.


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#9012
TheseDays

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Does anyone know why Yokai Watch is SO popular in Japan? :blink:

 

Because kids like it? It's like the Pokemon phenomenon in the late 90s.


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#9013
xSabrinax

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Yokai Watch.

 

 

:bravo:

Because I was addicted to Pokémon when I was a kid. :D

 

 

I just hope Naruto The Last passes the 1,5 billion before the end of it's run. ^_^


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#9014
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Some are predicting close to 2B yen OW for Yokai Watch. :o

BH6 hopefulling can benefit from the spill-over effect, and may open to 300-400M yen.



#9015
lab276

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Some are predicting close to 2B yen OW for Yokai Watch. :o
BH6 hopefulling can benefit from the spill-over effect, and may open to 300-400M yen.


Would that be the biggest OW ever?

#9016
Mojoguy

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It's looking more and more likely that Yo-Kai Watch is going to break the long-standing (11+ years) All-Time Weekend Record based on this data. A lot of theaters are beginning to add more screens since they're nearly booked for Saturday (and Sunday, too). Any showtimes with a (/) next to it were recently added.

It's already sold over 1.1 million tickets in advance, the most in history, and it's outpacing One Piece Film Z by a significant amount before release. And by comparison, One Piece Film Z sold 650,000 tickets in advance.

Top 25 All-Time Opening Weekends [ADMISSIONS]
Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor)
01 :: 1,486,743 [631] - The Matrix Reloaded (Warner Bros.)
02 :: 1,469,755 [796] - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner Bros.)
03 :: 1,467,945 [919] - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.)
04 :: 1,421,738 [760] - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Disney)
05 :: 1,390,446 [858] - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Warner Bros.)
06 :: 1,359,454 [826] - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Warner Bros.)
07 :: 1,357,977 [758] - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (Fox)
08 :: 1,279,120 [578] - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Warner Bros.)
09 :: 1,198,210 [729] - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Herald/Shochiku)
10 :: 1,190,009 [841] - War of the Worlds (Paramount)
11 :: 1,186,413 [881] - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney)
12 :: 1,140,081 [300] - One Piece Film Z (Toei)
13 :: 1,138,689 [639] - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (Fox)
14 :: 1,110,913 [638] - The Matrix Revolutions (Warner Bros.)
15 :: 1,104,980 [448] - Howl's Moving Castle (Toho)
16 :: 1,043,267 [550] - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (Toho-Towa)
17 :: 987,387 [428] - Rookies (Toho)
18 :: 930,586 [408] - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (Toho)
19 :: 923,711 [863] - The Da Vinci Code (Sony)
20 :: 921,341 [807] - Spider-Man 3 (Sony)
21 :: 880,697 [922] - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 (Warner Bros.)
22 :: 828,149 [859] - Alice in Wonderland (Disney)
23 :: 819,738 [190] - One Piece Film Strong World (Toei)
24 :: 812,557 [481] - Ponyo (Toho)
25 :: 810,000 [318] - Spirited Away (Toho)


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#9017
xSabrinax

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It's already sold over 1.1 million tickets in advance, the most in history.

:o


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#9018
catlover

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Oh wow, 2B yen OW maybe? In only 2 days? That would be super crazy. I just hope BH6 can have good OW and great legs.



#9019
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Biggest Opening Weekends of All-Time
Weekend Gross ¥($) / Admissions - Film (Dis.) Year
01. ¥2.222 billion ($18.8 million) / 1,486,743 - The Matrix Reloaded (Warner Bros.) 2003
02. ¥2.068 billion ($17.0 million) / 1,467,000 - Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (Warner Bros.) 2007
03. ¥2.050 billion ($16.8 million) / 1,469,755 - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (Warner Bros.) 2002
04. ¥1.944 billion ($16.6 million) / 1,421,738 - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Disney) 2006
05. ¥1.879 billion ($18.9 million) / 1,357,000 - Star Wars Episode III: Revenge of the Sith (Fox) 2005
06. ¥1.871 billion ($17.3 million) / 1,390,000 - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (Warner Bros.) 2004
07. ¥1.617 billion ($15.0 million) / 1,110,913 - The Matrix Revolutions (Warner Bros.) 2003
08. ¥1.604 billion ($13.5 million) / 1,138,689 - Star Wars Episode II: Attack of the Clones (Fox) 2002
09. ¥1.557 billion ($12.4 million) / 1,279,000 - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (Warner Bros.) 2001
10. ¥1.542 billion ($14.8 million) / 1,198,210 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Shochiku/Herald) 2004
11. ¥1.484 billion ($14.0 million) / 1,104,980 - Howl's Moving Castle (Toho) 2004
12. ¥1.471 billion ($12.2 million) / 1,186,413 - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Disney) 2007
13. ¥1.456 billion ($12.6 million) / 1,043,267 - Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines (Toho-Towa) 2003
14. ¥1.372 billion ($16.7 million) / 1,140,081 - One Piece Film Z (Toei) 2012
15. ¥1.316 billion ($14.3 million) / 828,129 - Alice in Wonderland (Disney) 2010
16. ¥1.301 billion ($16.4 million) / 880,697 - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 (Warner Bros.) 2011
17. ¥1.257 billion ($11.3 million) / 923,711 - The Da Vinci Code (Sony) 2006
18. ¥1.237 billion ($10.5 million) / 865,586 - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge! (Toho) 2003
19. ¥1.226 billion ($12.9 million) / 987,387 - Rookies (Toho) 2009
20. ¥1.226 billion ($9.6 million) / 930,000 - Spider-Man (Sony) 2002
21. ¥1.209 billion ($14.8 million) / 773,184 - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney) 2011
22. ¥1.207 billion ($10.1 million) / 920,000 - Spider-Man 3 (Sony) 2007
23. ¥1.133 billion ($14.1 million) / 771,764 - Evangelion 3.0: You Can (Not) Redo (T-Joy) 2012
24. ¥1.130 billion ($10.9 million) / 860,000 - Rurouni Kenshin: The Legend Ends (Warner Bros.) 2014 [Estimate]
25. ¥1.084 billion ($10.0 million) / 800,000 - Spider-Man 2 (Sony) 2004
26. ¥1.038 billion ($11.9 million) / 819,738 - One Piece Film Strong World (Toei) 2010
27. ¥1.034 billion ($9.8 million) / 812,557 - Ponyo (Toho) 2008
28. ¥1.050 billion ($8.9 million) / 810,000 - Spirited Away (Toho) 2001
29. ¥1.009 billion ($8.8 million) / 749,807 - Hero (Toho) 2007
30. ¥1.005 billion ($9.6 million) / 805,350 - Boys Over Flowers (Toho) 2008


Note: No data opening weekend for Star Wars Episode I: The Phantom Menace.


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#9020
Rsyu

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So Yokai watch is kinda like Pokemon but more popular?


The known is finite, the unknown infinite; intellectually we stand on an islet in the midst of an illimitable ocean of inexplicability. Our business in every generation is to reclaim a little more land.



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