Gokai Red

My wife, at 1030pm, told me that her and her friend are going to a 1130pm showing tonight, so I guess walk ups are definitely happening with more casual fans. What are the odds this gets to a 113 mill opening?

I hate this narrative that female driven movies specifically are frontloaded at the box office and always pointing at Twilight as the main example of this "trend", when it's just the nature of having a rabid fanbase. But for every Twilight movie, there's a Hunger Games or Barbie or Wonder Woman that are female driven and have relatively good (in the case of HG) or very good legs (in the case of WW and Barbie). And even then, these Twilight movies were 10-15 years ago, not exactly a great comp. Let's push the narrative that male driven movies are frontloaded because of movies like AMWQ, Flash, Shazam, etc. No, it's just the rapid fanbases that push the movies' multipliers in the high 1-low 2 range, not being female driven (Harry Potter, DC, MCU nowadays, Twilight, etc.). I do think this movie will be relatively frontloaded, but that's on the basis of Taylor Swift's rapid fanbase, not because it is female driven.

I'm not a bot 🥺

Can someone explain to me why all of Disney's major releases seem to be in a theater count that is divisible by 5 every single weekend since COVID reopenings? The only exceptions I've found are the OW for ATWOW, BPWF, DSMOM, and the fourth weekend of Shang Chi. It seems too intentional and gone on for too long to be a coincidence.

Back in June 2009, Revenge of the Fallen's 5 day estimates were 197.1 mill (or something like that, I'm doing this from memory). When the actuals came out, it was reported as 200.1, with Paramount "finding additional revenue from Puerto Rico that wasn't accounted for" in the previous estimate. This was a big deal at the time, because only one movie had grossed 200m in 5 days (TDK), and ROTF was already breaking several records. While movies go up or down from estimates all the time, this instance was particularly egregious because it was clear that Paramount wanted it to pass the 200m millstone. And thus, we swore that we would never forget. But then, in June 2014, it happened again. After a weaker summer that had multiple movies open in the 90-99 million range (Captain America: The Winter Solder, The Amazing Spider-Man 2, Godzilla, X-Men: Days of Future Past) and no openings above 100 million, it looked like Age of Extinction was doomed to be yet another one that would fall in that range. Throughout the weekend, optimistic projections and rival studio estimates pointed to something in the 96-98 range, but once again, come actuals, Paramount reported AOE with an opening weekend of 100 million, basically on the dot. Once again, Paramount had Puerto Rico'd a Transformers movie over a significant milestone. And thus, we swore to never forget... Again. https://imgur.com/a/hJeIcV5 (I don't know why my imgur link isn't working)

It's been 25 years since Titanic made 600+ and 15 years since TDK made 500+, and we still haven't had a movie land in the 550-600 range. Is Mario going to be the one that finally does it? In fact, with SM NWH releasing 1.5 years ago, every 50 million bracket up to 950 has at least movie, except for the 550-600 bracket.

Push this back a week so it'll come out on the same day TDK came out.

Call it MEG4N in the style of FANT4STIC

Just wanted to let you guys know that I started reading the Japan box office thread after someone linked it when we were talking about Demon Slayer last night and I have to agree: Demon Slayer's Japanese run is the most impressive single market run this century, and reading through those pages just reminded me of how exciting this nerdy hobby of following the box office can be.

151, 502, 018

Might not even hit 900

So do you guys think this will open Friday the 15th, Friday the 22nd, or Monday the 25th? I remember the argument being being made back when SWTLJ came out on 12/15/17 that those extra days before Xmas legs kicking in really allowed negative WOM to spread, and that contributed to the unprecedented weak legs for holiday BO. Disney also slated the SW movie originally for 2023 on 12/22/23 instead of 12/15/23, which kind of gave some strength to that argument. But opening on 12/22 means that Xmas Eve is on opening Sunday, which would make a weaker opening more likely. Opening on Xmas Day is normal for movies that come out during the holidays, but since this year it falls on a Monday, they might as well just open it the Friday before to squeeze more money out of it. Looking back at the 2017 and 2006 calendars, (the same configuration as 2023) Jumanji opened Wednesday 12/20 and Night at the Museum opened Friday 12/22, and those were both among the biggest movies of their year, so that does back up the 12/22 option. Most movies that open on Monday 12/25 are smaller movies that counterprogrammed the bigger blockbuster movie that opened on either the 15 or the 22. This calendar configuration is notable because it's either the earliest possible or latest possible Friday opening for a pre-Xmas blockbuster to open. Just something to think about.

That poster is a banger though.

A banger