Why should The Fall Guy have strong presales 20 days before its opening? It's an original film, not a well-known franchise that fans will rush for. I expect presales to boost in last days with demand spreading all over the weekend, not just previews.
Ryan Gosling & Emily Blunt in SNL should help increase GA awareness, not necesarily presales.
What would be a good result for both openers?
Anyways...
Jat's number is not official, so there's still hope
&
Cocaine Bear managed to open to 23M after 2M previews. So there will be still hope after previews are official
It's still early, especially for Monkey Man. I see that as a test of possible breakout thanks to legs more than big OW.
Anyways, if Monkey Man opens to around 12-13M, it could reach 40-50M DOM, and that's quite solid for an actioner that was scheduled not long ago and without a star in front of it.
Yeah, I meant domestic. Even if it disappoints, Joker 2 could gross about 400M worldwide
From those predictions I would change Mufasa's becoming biggest WW film of the year, and replace it with Inside Out 2
Looking at April, it’s full of uncertainty. But in a fascinating way, IMHO. I like this kind of months, with many quality offers and original movies. I would say crossing 500M is the baseline, and match 2022’s 570M a very good end. Not fair to compare it with April 2023, when SMB exploded.
Openers (275-325M)
Monkey Man: 60-70M
First Omen: 25-30M
SUGA: 20-30M
Civil War: 70-80M
Ministry of Ungentlemenly Warfare: 15-20M
Abigail: 35-40M
Challengers: 10-15M
Unsung Hero: 10M
Rest of openers: 30M
Holdovers (225M)
GxK - 100M
Ghostbusters: 35M
Dune 2: 25M
KFP4: 25M
Rest: 40M
Bolded the probable final March grosses. Was too cautious with tentpoles and too optimistic with minor wide openers & holdovers.
Anyways, good news this month. It will close to around 720M.
Next week I will try to take a look at April.
Things I'm crossing fingers for this weekend.
-KFP4 over 35M
-Dune2 under 30% drop
-Arthur with healthy IM to around 12M
-Oppenheimer reaching 330M (so finally 4x OW)
-Cabrini delivering strong hold, with 5M
-Agregated top10 weekend over 100M
-More than 10 movies over 1M. It would require Love Lies Bleeding, One Life and The American Society of Magical Negroes over 1M.
Both numbers are quite impressive.
Very strong for Dune 2. Not easy to drop only 34% from last Monday, when that day was benefited from OW spillover. Tuesday increase should be healthier. I would say 30M+ 3rd weekend is pretty much assured.
As you say, it's curious, because the demand is clearly there, but still schedule have been almost void of kids movies for months.
At least, this will change soon. Until the end of 2024 we have If, Garfield, Inside Out 2, Despicable me 4, Robot Dreams, Harold and the purple crayon, Transformers One, The Wild Robot, Moana, Mufasa and Sonic3.