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Everything posted by Cmasterclay
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cmasterclay replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Godzilla X Kong memed itself to a breakout. The ultimate box office power these days. -
I hope this is his new movie after Gladiator.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Cmasterclay replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
64m OW would be pretty great for a declining franchise that blew its last big hook on a day and date release. -
I respect your opinion and know you probably have more insight than I do. From my experiences dealing with younger family members and people I help organize (even in Democratic organizing), the amount of podcast and Twitter injected reactionary stuff and misinformation is wild. Lots of young people I know in particular have very extreme takes on masculinity, sexuality, stuff like that. I think I was too simple putting it into left or right. It's more populist and conspiracy leaning. It's just very different from a millenial like me being standard Obama liberals like most 30 somethings. Just my experience! I am very worried. Also, Trump leads 18-29 in almost every single poll, and Biden leads 30-44. That could always change, of course, but it's the first generation in awhile to see those kind of numbers. Anyway, we should probably move any politics off this thread. It's more about the changing consumption habits of films for me.
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Watching film at home as an adult in 2024 sucks. That's a huge part of this. Obviously I didn't come to love the original Star Wars trilogy or Terminator 2 or Silence of the Lambs or Se7en because I saw them in theaters. But I did watch them transfixed in front of a TV, likely on the same channel as half my friends or at least available at Blockbuster, and it would build this cultural reverence. That's how we got cult classics and big growth from Shawshank or Rounders. Today's media environment is too siloed to produce cult classics or home video hits like that. Heck, even for me, if I watch Love Lies Bleeding when it drops on VOD, I'll probably spend a solid third of the time checking work emails, texting, or googling NBA scores. The streaming market in today's world is just not equipped to turn these films into hits outside maybe one or two a year. I just don't know how to get out of the doom loop for the industry. I think @von Kenni has some great points and real perspective. Number one is certainly the biggest problem, the others I do think can adjust. Though I certainly think the false perception of "DEI" among the people who wouldn't see something like Lucy because they think it's "pushing things down our throats" is having a much larger impact on box office than any actual, tangible political correctness in films themselves. Read the responses on Twitter whenever a video game trailer features ANY woman or person of color at all. It's thousands of responses and downvotes bashing the film. Eventually, that kind of coordinate response can't be written off as just "twitter shit" - that is really going to impact consumer habits. I'm really, really worried about the sexless, Andrew Tate and Twitter addled younger generation. I am not remotely convinced they are more liberal at all compared to folks my age. I think that's a bullshit truism that people are falling for.
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That's a good point. Thing is, it was considered mostly a bomb then with that gross - and yet we just acted like Holdovers and American Fiction were massive successes when they did 2m less and disappeared into a streaming hole where pop culture permeance goes to die. It's just a different, shittier environment, like you said.
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What's funny is that they used to pull IP from a ton of things - books especially. The Godfather and Jaws were books. Harry Potter, Hunger Games, Twilight, Divergent.....big books! They just kind of stopped pulling IP from everything except comic books for awhile, and now they finally seem to be rounding back. I'm pro-Divergent type movies.
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I hear you. I was starting to feel quite optimistic in December, actually, as everything from platform on up was overperforming. But so far in 2024, the air is way out of the balloon. We are going to be about a billion under 2023 by September, and while I do think fall looks much better, it's an open question of whether this kind of gradual growth and improvement is going to continue. I am not buying this summer slate at all. It's clear that adult movies need both an empty market and a holiday corridor like in 2023 to really break out like they did in December, and that environment is going to be tough to replicate. Reason why I'm being so pessimistic - the other day, I was talking with a bunch of coworkers about going to the movies. These are educated, professional adults in the government sector, lean white but not exclusively. They were literally laughing at the idea of seeing a movie in theaters. They treated it like I had just told them I have a horse-drawn carriage or a blacksmithing business. I tried the same convo at the more diverse crowd at poker the other night, and got the same reaction. Incredulous laughter. They did all see Oppenheimer, fwiw. This is anecdotal evidence, but the data we are getting seems to back it up - adults over 35, especially middle-class and up, are the ones that haven't come back to the movies. Theaters won't die, and young people going is actually a good sign in many ways, but yeah, problematic as it may sound, it isn't great that the audience demographic that drove business for the films I actually like and support is the one departing the movie going public. Speaking of poker, naturally, we talk about the movie Rounders alot. Not an Oscar winner, not a brilliant film requiring a Master's degree to like, but a fun adult movie for older people that permeated the popular culture. Today, that movie probably doesn't get made, and if it does it gets lost on streaming with no impact. On the off chance it does get a theatrical release, it'd do 10m and disappear to VOD after two weeks with no lasting cultural impact. Those are the films I'm worried about. Not the Killers of the Flower Moon types. The Rounders type is what I'm worried about. Normal movies for adults that entertain for a couple hours without a bunch of CGI bullshit, make a solid bit of money, and become a cult classic.
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Just for fun I took a smattering of movies from 2014, which btw at the time was considered a weak year at the box office. Neighbors did 150m. Lucy did 126m. Noah did 101m. Non-Stop did 92m. The Imitation Game did 91m. Fury did 85m. The Other Woman did 83m. The Grand Budapest Hotel did 59m. No Good Deed did 52m. Look at those totals. Come on folks. You guys know none of those movies would have done even 25m domestic today except maybe Neighbors, which would have gone straight to Apple like Rogen's recent films, and maybe Budapest because Wes Power. And when they flopped, you know what people would have posted - "oh, of course a movie with those reviews/length/concept/stars flopped, they always would have!" But the fact is, they didn't always. Not remotely. And people who have been on these boards awhile just know that to be true. Which is why I think the Clays and CJohns and others of the world are more negative.
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You love doing this schtick where you insult anyone who doesn't agree with your optimism on movies. Looking at it from my perspective, 2024 box office is well below 2023 and growing, consumer habits are changing, and the kind of movies I like still struggle mightily to make money. I've had four years of these movies flopping and people saying "well because the length and subject matter it would have flopped anyway!" That's what I resent. I've posted here since 2008. I have a memory of box office before COVID. If you don't, go look at the box office from like 2009 or 2011 or 2014. Mid-sized movies did SIGNIFICANTLY better than today. Significantly. Did all of them breakout? Of course not. But it wasn't like every single weekend there would have to be excuses for why the latest one failed. It's gaslighting to pretend that anyone who points out this objective fact is some crazy negative depressed person.
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Horrific weekend as expected, not going to pretend a couple of great reviewed horror movies ending up with like 8m and 4m in total gross is "great" because the studios. We all know they're gonna drop 80% next weekend and disappear on streaming forever. Whistling past the graveyard, folks. Even I, Mr. Complain About Streaming, skipped Love Lies Bleeding and Late Night With The Devil in theaters and am just waiting for streaming. It's just too easy and convenient now. They won. The death rattle for the non event films is going to be this April when Monkey Man (already unperforming dramatically per keyser) doesn't hit 15m and neither does Civil War, and Challengers and the Guy Ritchie both open to about 7m.
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Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire | March 22, 2024
Cmasterclay replied to Eric Atreides's topic in Box Office Discussion
I found out from this post. Holy shit! -
Weekend Numbers | actuals | 30.15M KFP IV | 28.50M DUNE II
Cmasterclay replied to kayumanggi's topic in Numbers and Data
Really worried about how this year's box office is looking top heavier than usual even post-COVID. Really need at least one of the adult films to do 50m domestic next month. -
Civil War | A24 | Alex Garland action thriller | 04/12/2024
Cmasterclay replied to AniNate's topic in Box Office Discussion
I'd kill for this movie to make enough money for it to have any actual controversy or discourse tbh. I think it's hysterics regardless but it's definitely hysterics for something that's going to do like 11/26 domestically. I also don't see what "danger" people are possibly talking about - what is an Alex Garland A24 movie going to inspire, after eight years of unbelievable divisiveness, mass shootings, Neo-Nazis, and an actual coup attempt - what violence or discourse can this inspire that is beyond what is already happening in America? Like this is the straw that broke the camel's back?