LonePirate

Maybe just post the results and skip the write-ups. I think everyone knows what is #1 but the race for #2 could be very interesting.

The Regal IMAX near me has sold 28 tickets so far for tonight’s (Thursday) 7pm showing of Civil War.

Are there two versions of this trailer? The one I saw was a complete mess. It looks like a movie suffering from an identity crisis.

This converts to a little over $3M US.

I checked some AMC theaters in NYC and LA for Civil War on Thursday the 11th and the 7:00 hour shows were selling briskly in IMAX and Dolby. I then checked Chicago and SF and some tickets had been sold but nowhere even close to the levels in NYC and LA. I then checked Dallas and Boston. They had sold a few but were a step or two behind Chicago and SF. I’ll defer to others as to how normal this behavior is with over two weeks to go.

What? The Lighthouse is a scary flick/horror movie? I thought it was something else entirely and decided to skip it even though the performances are supposedly very good.

I think people are overconfident about Joker 2’s chances. It should open well but I think its legs will be poor. Mixing the two genres is going to leave audiences confused if not angry. The trailer and ad campaign better shine some light on how much a musical the film actually is because audiences are going to reach a point where disguising musicals as other types of films is going to piss them off. This film could well be it.

Any chance it comes close to $40M in Japan in order for the film to hit $1B? Seems unlikely to me but Japan does have a connection to the film no other country can claim and that might be enough to drive it higher than expected.

I have no issues with her performance. It’s the writing for her character that largely failed her. She simply did not factor much into the film apart from one scene. Her presence in the film would not have been missed if she was absent from it apart from that one scene. Her character otherwise was a non-entity in the film.

Finally watched Dune in IMAX yesterday and it is certainly a well-crafted movie. Definitely nice to understand the context behind all of the Stilgar memes floating around. Ferguson and Butler were the obvious standouts with Pugh being a rung behind simply due to not having enough to do. Zendaya was fine but she was largely wasted as she really only had one purpose in the film. As for Chalamet, he simply does not have the screen presence necessary for the part he’s playing. He may be the luckiest actor in Hollywood in recent years largely thanks to the high profile roles he has been given.

It’s too bad Tenet is not reporting numbers this week. Those 70mm IMAX showings for it are doing gangbusters business.

Migration is up to almost a 9x multiplier for its 3 day opening and a little over a 6x multiplier on its 4 day opening with Christmas Day Monday. Anyone But You is even better with multipliers of 15x and almost 10x for its 3 and 4 day openings. Two very impressive runs even if the numbers have been small for the past few weeks.

Oppenheimer is now about $1.7M away from reaching a 4.0x domestic multiplier. It will likely crawl to make it there but it is still a good 2-3 weeks away. I wonder what sort of Valentine’s Day bounce Anyone But You will receive. Will it be enough to push the film over $90M domestic?

This is the correct explanation I believe. While foreign audiences may have loved Barbie, the foreign members of the Academy simply didn’t think so. The BAFTA snubs should have been red flags for everyone that Barbie was headed for some resistance from Oscar voters.

Will Nolan win 2 or 3 awards? The film’s heft will likely carry over into the Adapted Screenplay category to give him that third one of the night. His other two categories are in no way close horse races whatsoever. The Best Actor category will be an interesting battle between Giamatti and Murphy. BAFTA and SAG should help portend the winner. Unlike during the nominating round, all of the technical branches vote in all categories. Nolan has a lot of past nominees and winners in those areas who will likely be voting for Oppenheimer in all 13 categories.