Also FWIW Nyong'o seems like she would do better with critics than with the Academy and for Lawrence the reverse is probably the case. I'm still predicting Nyong'o to win but you're kidding yourself if you think Lawrence doesn't have a very real shot.
Not sure I agree with this. They obviously aren't quite as reliable as the guilds and Globes when it comes to predicting nominees, but they give a strong idea of which contenders have momentum and the visibility to be considered among the best of the year.