babz06

Maybe Universal isn’t confident. I doubt this will move the needle in any significant way.

Fall Guy leaning heavily on the Barbieheimer stuff with GoslingBlunt isn’t going to cut it. They need it to be its own event. So marketing does need to get better in that regard especially when press tour starts. I agree that this seems more like a walk up movie rather than big pre sales.

Just because there aren’t any blockbusters coming out doesn’t mean theaters are dead. These mid budget films are actually keeping them alive.

Solo is a good comparison. Except atleast that was a huge franchise like SW. Mad Max is still very niche.

I don’t know about breakout (are people tired of monkeys for the year?) but I do think it will probably have the biggest opening of May for the reasons that you stated. If something breaks out, I’m betting on either Garfield or Fall Guy.

CMBYN was even less accessible only made 18m dom. Challengers will definitely outgross it. By how much is anyone’s guess.

I keep getting ads on tiktok for Abigail and Ministry. So they are both trying to reach the younger audience.

DWD had 3.1m previews for a 19m OW and it’s legs were a 2.34 multipler. So definitely front loaded probably because of Harry Styles fans.

It’s not really worldwide though. It’s been mostly in Europe which makes sense since tennis is popular there. The only other place they went was Australia, where tennis is also a popular sport. The US will be the next and final stop. It makes sense to spend time in these specific markets if they want atleast decent numbers. Zendaya gets attention for her outfits everywhere she goes and goes viral regularly on social media, she’s a fashion icon. So the press tour seems bigger than it actually is. This is nowhere near a blockbuster press tour like for example Dune which had stops in Asia/Oceania, Europe, Middle East, Latin/South America, and North America.

Do they even care anymore now that Shawn is gone? It’s unacceptable to get release dates wrong.

Grace Randolph has basic taste so her not liking this may or may not be a preview for WOM with general audiences.

The marketing for this has been unremarkable so far. We shall see what happens this month but they need to kick it up into high gear if they want this film to be profitable with the reported budget. Right now I’m thinking this does around The Lost City numbers.

Yes they were marketing it to the right audience but it seems like not enough were interested or excited to make the trip to the theaters.

I agree that the festival didn’t seem to move the needle that much in terms of pre sales or interest. Also Dev Patel isn’t a Keanu Reeves or Jason Statham but 10m opening isn’t that far off from The Beekeeper or John Wick. So it’s an ok opening in the grand scheme of things.

Your predictions actually make a lot of sense. I hope atleast one hits 20m+ OW though.

Yeah I would not put all my eggs in the Civil War or Challengers baskets. Both of those films have drawbacks and honestly any money they make would be a success considering the subject matter. The Fall Guy is going to be more of a real litmus test. It’s the first time in several years that the May opening isn’t going to be a Marvel property.

Fall Guy releases the next week after and it’s also getting an IMAX release.

The tennis scenes are apparently great and it fills up an empty slot in the IMAX schedule so why not.

IMAX poster

This isn’t a Peele directed film though, so I’m not sure how much it will appeal to his fanbase.

Godzilla doesn’t really have much competition. The next big ‘general audience’ film won’t be until Apes in May. Dune and Kung Fu Panda should continue have good legs too.

Exactly. This year and beyond we will start seeing films that were greenlit under the Zaslav regimen like Horizon, Red One, Mickey 17, and Superman Legacy etc

Agreed. Tennis movies are a tough sell even in the best of times. It’s ironic that another MJ, Kirsten Dunst, also starred in a romantic tennis movie back in the day called Wimbledon, which didn’t make much (16.8m dom) So you see where the bar is for these movies. Any money this film makes is because of Zendaya.

Civil War seems like it’s going to make the most money but even that still won’t be some huge Bo hit. I have it making around Angel Has Fallen numbers (60-70m Dom) As for who comes in second, it’s a toss up between Monkey Man, Challengers , Abigail and First Omen. Seems like they’ll finish somewhere in the 20-40m range.

I don’t think IF is going to do that well. Garfield has a better chance of breaking out. (IMO)