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DamienRoc

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About DamienRoc

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    Fast Frozen Fury
  • Birthday March 12

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  1. Currently 12 of the top 15, 6 OWs, and 9 of the WW. I'd expect I'm going to lose one of the top 15, though. Order is all fucked for all three, and my numbers are vastly off in some cases. All in all, probably a middling pre-season, to match a middling game performance.
  2. SILVER AND BLACK | Feb 8 2019 | Sony

    Because of her, this automatically sounds more interesting than anything on the MCU slate.
  3. There's a short playing before Coco this November. The sequel is scheduled for Thanksgiving 2019.
  4. Well... yes? But that hardly matters. Like, any act of storytelling starts from a point of "not knowing what to do". Much of the creative process is figuring out exactly what does or does not work. DC has attempted various incarnations of Wonder Woman in the 40+ years between the end of the TV series and the release of the feature film, and, yes, generally those incarnations did not work. But somewhat critically: THEY DID NOT MAKE THOSE THINGS. Like, Whedon had a bad take for the film. And WB didn't make the film. Kelley had a bad take for the TV series. And WB didn't make the series. WB went through the creative process and saw at a certain point that it wasn't working and pulled the plug, so they went back to the drawing board. If anyone is creating something, they don't know what to do with it until they work through the process and figure it out. And then they do know what to do. There isn't anything that just springs fully formed exactly write. It always takes work. WB should be praised for working the process, rather than just forcing something substandard out. If only studios would do that for every movie.
  5. SOTM 11 - A Nutty SOTM

    None of those silly, think forever, rack your brains SOTMs this time. Just 7 simple questions... 1. Will Nut Job open to more than $10M? Yes 2. Will Nut Job drop less than 50% in its 2nd weekend? No 3. Will Nut Job increase on Saturday? Yes 4. Will Nut job increase more than 37.5% on its 1st Tuesday? No 5. Will Nut Job have more than 9 days above $1M? Yes 6. Will Nut Job more than $2M ahead of Emoji Movie in the August 18th Weekend standings? No 7. Will Nut Job make more than $4M in the UK? Yes You must answer all 7 Scoring: 7 Correct: 50,000 points 6 Correct: 30,000 points 5 correct: 15,000 points 4 correct: 0 points 3 correct: minus 15000 points 2 correct: minus 30000 points 1 correct: minus 50000 points 0 correct: 80000 points (not a typo) Deadline is Thursday 10th at 11:59pm Abstaining is worth minus 5000 No comment is minus 12000
  6. Part A: 1. Will Annabelle Open to more than $25M? 1000 Yes 2. Will Glass Castle Open to more than $3M? 2000 Yes 3. Will Nut Job make more than $9.5M? 3000 Yes 4. Will Nut Job and Glass Castle combine to more than half Annabelle's Opening weekend? 4000 No 5. Will Dunkirk stay in the top 2? 5000 Yes 6. Will Wonder Woman drop less than 30% 1000 Yes 7. Will Dark Tower drop more than 52% 2000 Yes 8. Will Atomic Blonde Stay above Detroit? 3000 Yes 9. Will War for the Apes stay above Despicable Me? 4000 No 10. Will Valerian drop more than 61%? 5000 Yes 11. Will A Taxi Driver have a PTA above $7,000? 1000 Yes 12. Will The trip to Spain have a PTA above $5,000? 2000 Yes 13. Will Kidnap have a PTA above $2,150? 3000 Yes 14. Will SPiderman have a PTA above $1950? 4000 Yes 15. Will the Nut Job finally be the 2017 animated tour de Force we have all been waiting for? 5000 If we're looking for a tour de force of crap, we've already got Emoji, and I don't think Nut Job's relentless mediocrity will let it go that low. But @grim22 is stanning for it or whatever, so who knows? Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Annabelle make for its 3 day OW? $29.347m 2. What will Wonder Woman's percentage drop for the weekend be? -27.3% 3. What will Cars 3's PTA be? $978 Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. Dunkirk 5. Girl's Trip 8. Kidnap 10. Detroit 13. War for the Planet of the Apes 18. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000
  7. 68 days to get to 400m is on the slow side. Of the 23 films to do it, it slots in at 20th. Just behind TPM, which took 67 days to do it back in 1999, but it's also comfortably faster than TF2 (74 days in 2009), and THG (80 days in 2012.) Frozen is the huge outlier, though, taking 155 days in 2013-2014. Speed to 400m doesn't really seem to necessarily give a good indication of where a film will end up, although every film that did it in two weeks or less earned upwards of $600m, and every film that did it in 20 days or less earned better than $500m. But the type of run can have a big difference. For instance, both Spider-Man and Titanic took 66 days to get there. Spidey set the opening weekend record by a big amount, but was basically done by the time $400m went down. Titanic was only 2/3rds the way through its run. WW is clearly going to beat SM1, but even with its incredible legs, it won't come close to Titanic. Or even TPM. Looking again at The Hunger Games' 80 days, since after Spider-Man, that's next up on the list of films to pass. THG had some notably strong late legs, but even so, WW is still holding ahead on a daily basis. THG's 68th day was the Tuesday after Memorial Day, and it earned about $250k, for a $396.3m total. WW is sitting about $4m ahead, and should probably grow that lead at least through the next week or two. THG earned almost another $12m from that point, too. If Wondy manages a similar multiplier, it'll earn about 18-19m more. After THG are the MCU twosome of IM3 and CACW. Here's another interesting thing. Both films had similar openings and totals about $1m apart, but CACW managed to get to $400m three days faster, in 44 days compared to IM3's 47 days, despite being the lower grossing film. CACW's 44th day was a Saturday, so we can't do much direct comparison. Still, if we look ahead to its 68th day, it earned just 45k. And even with that low total, it earned about 37 times that day for the rest of its run. If Wondy does the same, it will earn about 14-15m more. Now for IM3, its 47th day WAS a Tuesday. And the 368k it earned it within the same ballpark. It earned just shy of 9m more from that point. Also, if we look at its 68th day, it earned 57k, and it still had about 2.5m to go. (However, Disney stopped daily tracking on day 70.) Still, if Wondy manages a similar multiplier from its 68th day, it'll get about 17m more! So if we're running comparisons, we can probably expect Wondy to get at least 9m more and possibly as much as 19m. As we know, the next mark after IM3 is the vaunted 4x multiplier, which is just at 413m and some change. Increasingly, it seems like it should get to that mark, perhaps not with ease, but fairly confidently. After that is Toy Story 3's 415m. It passed the $400m mark on its 58th day, which was a Saturday. Somewhat coincidentally, both it and CACW earned about 850k on the Saturday that pushed them over the mark. Its 61st day was the closest Tuesday, where it earned 370k, which is almost the same as IM3's 47th day, and just a bit behind WW's 68th day. Interesting. TS3's 68th day came a week later and had it pulling in 242k. Not too dissimilar from THG's 68th. Also interesting. And it earned about 44x its 68th day to finish its run. If Wondy has a similar multiplier... it'll be at about 17.5m more. Honestly, a final total in the 415-420 range is believable.
  8. At this point why bother? Setting a club for a film that's been out over two months to make ~9m more is... not really much of a club. While I won't say it's guaranteed, given WW's staying power, it would coast to about that total anyway. Given the likely Labor Day and pre-JL expansions, it should fairly easily come out ahead of CACW.
  9. I'm a few days late for a weekly update of the Simple, Stupid Box Office Projector. I had family in town last week, and followed that up with full workdays over the weekend. As I noted last week, the range of possible outcomes for WW are getting pretty narrow. Also, since we're entering the late run, things like shifts to dollar theaters, Labor Day expansions, and other stuff are probably going to play hell with any static projections. Anyway, for its ninth week, Wonder Woman came in 10th at the box office. That's basically two straight months in the top ten, which is a pretty absurdly long time. For it to happen in the heart of summer is even more amazing. This is the sort of season that delivers a blockbuster every week, or at least an attempt. But WW has just kept trucking along. Of the films that are ahead of it, the oldest had their fifth week. The weekly haul was $5.24m, just a shade over 30% for the drop. This is pretty key because it's right in line with the previous two weekly drops. As before, it's looking like 30% is a trend that will continue forward. In fact, if we cheat a bit and look at the weekend estimate, it's got another drop right around 30% in store. That would be four straight weeks right in that range. If it continues on that 30% path, it'll end up with a bit more than $409m. A few hundred thousand ahead of Iron Man 3. 31-32% drops would have it short of IM3, but ahead of The Hunger Games and Captain America: Civil War. 33% drops would leave it a little shy of THG. WW needs just 44% drops to end up ahead of Spider-Man. Since the biggest drop to date was 42%, there shouldn't be any concern there. So that's basically the story. Absent any other factors, WW is going to hit in the range of THG/CACW/IM3, and is probably heading towards beating all three. Because there will be some things to affect the trend in fairly big ways within the next couple of months, I would actually take that mark as a probable low mark, rather than an average. How much further it goes remains to be seen, but I'd say it's probably going to end up in the $415m range. That's basically all I have this week. It's pretty light on the analysis, but there isn't a whole lot to say at this point. It's an amazing run, but it's also winding down. So, I think this is the last I'll plug it into the projector. Thanks for following along with me for these past couple months.
  10. Wonder Woman - 28% 28% 28% 28% 10% No more because I'm on mobile and can't research it
  11. Part A: 1. Will Dark Tower Open to more than $22.5M? 1000 No 2. Will Detroit have a 3 day weekend of more than $12.5M? 2000 Yes 3. Will Kidnap make more than $5M? 3000 No 4. Will Dunkirk stay in the top 2? 4000 Yes 5. How many films will make more than $12M this weekend? 5000 Four 6. Will Wonder Woman drop less than 25% 1000 Yes 7. Will Emoji drop more than 47.5% 2000 Yes 8. Will Girl's Trip Stay above Atomic Blonde? 3000 Yes 9. Will Baby Driver stay above Wonder Woman? 4000 Yes 10. Will Wish Upon drop more than 65%? 5000 Yes 11. Will Wind River have a PTA above $12,000? 1000 Yes 12. Will Jab Harry met Sejal have a PTA above $5,000? 2000 Yes 13. Will Despicable Me 3 have a PTA above $1,850? 3000 Yes 14. Will Will Valerian somehow drop below Wonder Woman? 4000 Yes 15. Will Nolanites implode if Dunkirk drops below Emoji this weekend? 5000 Yes, but they'll be overwhelmed by the single jizztastic explosion of the one Emojistan in the world. Bonus: 9/15 5000 10/15 8000 11/15 12,000 12/15 16,000 13/15 20,000 14/15 24,000 15/15 30,000 Part B: The top 3 predictions will score points as follows: Closest: Within 1% - 15,000, Within 2,5% - 12000, Within 5% 9,000, Within 10% - 6000 Outside 10% - 3000 points 2nd Closest: Within 1% - 12,000, Within 2,5% - 10000, Within 5% 7,000, Within 10% - 4000 Outside 10% - 2000 points 3rd Closest: Within 1% - 10,000, Within 2,5% - 8000, Within 5% 5,000, Within 10% - 2000 Outside 10% - 1000 points 1. What will Dark Tower make for its 3 day OW? 15.35m 2. What will Valerian's percentage drop for the weekend be? - 64.33% 3. What will Detroit's percentage change be? +3256% Part C: There will be 6 films to place and points are expanded because traditionally people haven't scored well here: 2. The Dark Tower 4. Girls Trip 7. Atomic Blonde 10. Despicable Me 3 12. Baby Driver 15. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets Because I realised bonuses are stupid... 1/6 4,000 2/6 10,000 3/6 18,000 4/6 25,000 5/6 36,000 6/6 - 50,000
  12. Hey, Seattle represent. DK is going to play there for another three weeks, too. It's not 70mm anymore, but the Christie laser is nice, too. After that it'll be the 70mm festival, where I'll get to see Lawrence of Arabia for the first time.
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