Dephira

I kinda had high hopes for this when I saw the trailer. It looked really good and like a crowd pleaser to me

Idk if you meant to disagree with me, but I agree that WoWS had an extremely effective hook that works and is understood globally , and that's why it did super well globally despite having lots of graphic content. I don't see the same draw for KOTFM

A movie can have an accessible tagline and trailers without being actually accessible. This is a Box Office subforum and it should be well understood that box office appeal (which is closely correlated with trailer/tagline/marketing appeal) is very different from the actual appeal of a full-length movie

You can just quote me if you want to address anything I say. Do you think "Leo Dicaprio is a charismatic fraudster who gets rich on Wall Street, lives the American dream and gets hunted down by the FBI to get his comeuppance" is a less accessible theme than "Leo Dicaprio looks concerned while lots of Native Americans get murdered for making too much oil money, and Jesse Plemons starts investigating"? Btw, Deadline is agreeing with me and projecting a 24m opening weekend for KOTFM: ‘Killers of the Flower Moon’ Eyes $24 Million Box Office Opening In U.S. – Deadline I know Deadline has been wrong a ton of times for many, many reasons (including political/industry friendliness related reasons), but it's not like I'm totally alone with my feeling. I think Eras will be comfortably above 24m in its second weekend

It's not at all accessible and what it did is one of the most impressive Box Office Runs of all time given what kind of movie it is. I never said it was accessible, so not sure why you are putting those words in my mouth. But its tagline is certainly much more digestible than that of KOTFM. I only compared the two movies because I think people inflated their predictions for KOTFM after seeing Oppenheimer's performance, and I think the two movies are less comparable box office wise than it might seem on the surface

I look forward to the movie, I will see it and I think it will be great. I'm happy a movie like this got made with a big budget. But with regards to Box Office I see many question marks and few factors that would be very appealing to general audiences. It doesn't help that Leo looks mostly lost and like a grey character in the trailer. If it were a movie about a morally upstanding, heroic Leo facing off with DeNiro's villain character, it'd be a different story. That's just my opinion on the audience appeal, not the quality of the movie itself. I think it will play very well on the coasts and comparatively poorly everywhere else. This is just my gut feeling and people who have crunched actual numbers (which I have not) may disagree. If it even reaches 33m I would personally be pleasantly surprised.

Are people really expecting Killers of The Flower Moon, a 4 hour movie about the killing of Native Americans (this theme makes a big difference to the similarly long Oppenheimer) that will be on streaming very soon to put up any significant numbers? The last Scorsese/Leo collab with a much, much more accessible theme opened to 18m. Personally I'd be very shocked to see it open above 30m, and I imagine Eras 2nd weekend will be quite comfortably above that I also think even the latest trailer for KOTFM is too complex and confusingly cut for general audiences. Undoubtedly Leo and DeNiro will be enough to draw in some people but it just does not have the simple punch of "The biography of the man who invented the atomic bomb"

How is this a fudge when literally every movie debut now plays the entirety of Thursday (and often even earlier), and these Thursday evening shows were just announced at the very last minute? Does anyone even remember the last time there was a wide movie for which Thursday "previews" only started at 6pm?

1989 is my least favorite Taylor album (although Style and Blank Space are spectacular) so between the two of us we have a hot take for sure

It still is not playing from Monday-Thursday, right? I think the 2nd weekend drop would be pretty low because of that actually

I suppose people said the same about Frank Sinatra while witnessing The Beatles in the 1960s. If you look at any commercial metric or records/achievements (this is a numbers based forum after all), she is only competing with The Beatles, Michael Jackson and maybe Madonna

This is going to be nowhere near close to that, people will see it again and there will be lots of spillover

Sadly I think many people will wait to watch this on streaming but my theater clearly enjoyed it

I really enjoyed this movie

Oppenheimer showings around here are still almost selling out for weekday shows around here. It has really turned into appointment viewing. I don't remember the last time I saw such consistent sell-outs. Even Barbie by comparison gets much fewer presales, but presumably more walkups. Seems like many people got burned on not getting Oppenheimer tickets early on, so they're buying ahead of time to make sure they can get in.