water

Lol at people saying 3 multi is locked. Good luck with that

actually i shouldn't predict -28% because now when its actually like -20% or something tros apologists will act like that's good lmao

i didn't use bvs for my calculations, just pointing out that it's the only other big movie that did as badly as tros is doing. i find it funny that you keep saying i'm ignoring data when i literally am using data only to get these numbers. if i was making up what i wanted the weekend to be it would be below rogue one lol.

update based on new saturday estimate of 47.5. the drop is pretty catastrophic now imo, reaching only bvs being comparable. same methodology for saturday -> sunday drop as before, and this time i put 2.5 for multi to reflect worse wom than tlj -28.3%, 34m sunday, 171m ow, 427m dom Movie Thurs T->F Fri F->S Sat S->S Sun OW Multi Dom TFA 57000000 9.0% 62119282 9.9% 68294204 -11.3% 60553189 247966675 3.7773714 936662225 RO 29000000 45.2% 42094394 10.0% 46308115 -18.6% 37679172 155081681 3.4312068 532117324 TLJ 45000000 32.6% 59684491 7.2% 63993205 -19.8% 51331888 220009584 2.8188835 620181382 TROS 40000000 23.1% 49250000 -3.6% 47500000 -28.3% 34034203 170784203 2.5 426960507 TLK 23000000 138.8% 54930758 11.1% 61007382 -13.4% 52832619 191770759 2.8348328 543638043 AOU 27600000 105.9% 56824532 -0.5% 56526635 -11.0% 50319942 191271109 2.3997658 459005868 I2 18500000 185.2% 52760321 11.6% 58894582 -10.8% 52533002 182687905 3.3312646 608581744 CW 25000000 102.0% 50502161 21.2% 61209001 -30.7% 42427980 179139142 2.2780301 408084349 BATB 16300000 191.3% 47477443 32.1% 62706808 -23.0% 48266365 174750616 2.8841911 504014165 BVS 27700000 94.4% 53858505 -5.9% 50657088 -33.3% 33791754 166007347 1.9900336 330360194 EG 60000000 62.4% 97461641 12.1% 109264122 -17.3% 90389244 357115007 2.4036318 858373000 IW 39000000 72.7% 67334939 22.0% 82131612 -15.7% 69231632 257698183 2.6341493 678815482 JW 18500000 243.0% 63453950 9.8% 69644830 -17.9% 57207490 208806270 3.1238077 652270625 BP 25200000 101.4% 50741146 30.1% 65995366 -9.0% 60067439 202003951 3.4655736 700059566 JL 13000000 95.9% 25471202 28.3% 32680117 -30.6% 22690920 93842239 2.4405246 229024295

2013: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2013-12-22/weekly/ 2015: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2015-12-20/weekly/ what data goes against what i said? in 2013 smaller fri -> sat increases result in bigger sat -> sun decreases. in 2015 there are pretty much no small fri -> sat increases but there are plenty of big sat -> sun decreases. you're actually making me more confident in my prediction by showing historical evidence that movies have big decreases on sunday if the did poorly on saturday.

TFA had a 9% increase from thursday to friday and 9% increase from friday to saturday. so far tros has 23% increase from thursday to friday falling to a 1% DECREASE from friday to saturday. if it's supposed to be performing "like TFA" then that's actually even worse, tfa was relatively flat but increasing, whereas this is decreasing sharply.

just ran some numbers... Movie Thurs T->F Fri F->S Sat S->S Sun OW Multi Dom TFA 57000000 9.0% 62119282 9.9% 68294204 -11.3% 60553189 247966675 3.7773714 936662225 RO 29000000 45.2% 42094394 10.0% 46308115 -18.6% 37679172 155081681 3.4312068 532117324 TLJ 45000000 32.6% 59684491 7.2% 63993205 -19.8% 51331888 220009584 2.8188835 620181382 TROS 40000000 23.1% 49250000 -1.0% 48750000 TLK 23000000 138.8% 54930758 11.1% 61007382 -13.4% 52832619 191770759 2.8348328 543638043 AOU 27600000 105.9% 56824532 -0.5% 56526635 -11.0% 50319942 191271109 2.3997658 459005868 I2 18500000 185.2% 52760321 11.6% 58894582 -10.8% 52533002 182687905 3.3312646 608581744 CW 25000000 102.0% 50502161 21.2% 61209001 -30.7% 42427980 179139142 2.2780301 408084349 BATB 16300000 191.3% 47477443 32.1% 62706808 -23.0% 48266365 174750616 2.8841911 504014165 BVS 27700000 94.4% 53858505 -5.9% 50657088 -33.3% 33791754 166007347 1.9900336 330360194 EG 60000000 62.4% 97461641 12.1% 109264122 -17.3% 90389244 357115007 2.4036318 858373000 IW 39000000 72.7% 67334939 22.0% 82131612 -15.7% 69231632 257698183 2.6341493 678815482 JW 18500000 243.0% 63453950 9.8% 69644830 -17.9% 57207490 208806270 3.1238077 652270625 BP 25200000 101.4% 50741146 30.1% 65995366 -9.0% 60067439 202003951 3.4655736 700059566 JL 13000000 95.9% 25471202 28.3% 32680117 -30.6% 22690920 93842239 2.4405246 229024295 for friday to saturday change, tros is closest to aou, bvs, and tlj. thursday to true friday is harder to compare because of how rapidly thursdays have gotten more popular over the last few years, but compared to recent fandom-driven-ow movies like tlj, eg, iw, and bp, it's the lowest increase. using your numbers of 41-42 for sunday is only a 15% drop compared to tlj 20% drop, which seems unlikely considering it's going significantly worse than tlj so far. using tlj's exact drop and multi results in this TLJ 45000000 32.6% 59684491 7.2% 63993205 -19.8% 51331888 220009584 2.8188835 620181382 TROS 40000000 23.1% 49250000 -1.0% 48750000 -19.8% 39104613 177104613 2.8188835 499237269 39m sunday, 177m ow, 499m dom (lol) but again so far tros isn't performing the same as tlj, it's performing worse. to do a really simplified calculation, tlj 32.6 - 7.2 = 25.4, and tros 23.1 - -1.0 = 24.1, so quite similar rate of change. 24.1/25.4 = 0.95, so i'll use 95% of tlj's delta saturday->sunday change. 0.95 * (-19.8 - 7.2) = -25.65. i'll leave the multi the same because maybe smaller opening will counteract worse reception (but i personally believe multi will be lower too) TROS 40000000 23.1% 49250000 -1.0% 48750000 -25.7% 36245625 174245625 2.8188835 491178114 36m sunday, 174m ow, 491m dom

Is this for Thursday only or Thursday-Saturday? If the whole weekend is that skewed (TFA and TLJ were both 58% male while this is 67) then that's an apocalyptic change in demographics and coupled with B+ cinemascore you can completely say goodbye to any chance of legs.

"40.0" actually like 38.5 and "90.0" actually 87 or something will come back to bite them when drops look even worse than they are because they wanted nice numbers

B+ it's over 😂😂😂 TLK opened with 192 and had A getting it to 550 or whatever. TROS is about to open lower and with a Justice League B+ 500 is out of reach. OS is -20% and reception is even worse than NA so 500 will also be difficult. 1b ceiling!

Maybe Solo isn't the floor, Book of Henry is...

I've read what happens in the movie and personally would physically not be able to sit through it without harm to my mental and physical health. I'm really not joking.

This has Justice league vibes... I think people will be surprised by just how low it can go. Justice league low end tracking was like 125 and it did 95. Solo tracking was like 130-170 and it did 84 or 100 4 day or whatever. Tros low end tracking has quickly plummeted to 160 and that's still from an optimist who thinks it can do 181 or whatever Shawn put when that's practically the ceiling at this point. Imo the actual FLOOR is solo 84 just in terms of we know that's how low a star wars movie can go, but obviously it'll do better than that (right? 👀) 155 rogue one would be hard at this point considering the difference in context, like rogue one had positive reception from critics and audience and was coming off of tfa which was the biggest movie ever and also had double good reception. Star Wars was at the top of the world. Tlj was coming off of both of those but still dropped from tfa, which is understandable (although endgame shows that you can increase from 250m ow by ONE HUNDRED MILLION) but then it also had much worse legs. I don't think it's fair to expect it to do 900m Dom again but actually we now know a drop in ow wasn't a given. If catching fire can increase from thg, if each lotr movie can increase, etc, tlj could have dropped much less if reception was the same as tfa or better (considering tfa had plenty of room to improve and everyone who liked it knew that!). That's all to say that yes it's pretty crazy people didn't acknowledge that 800m ww drop was a terrible performance (obviously relative, not saying 1.3b is small) and again, with hindsight, that ow actually should have increased and led to a closer Dom finish. Tros is coming off of THAT plus solo the widely publicized production nightmare and widely publicized unprecedented box office failure, and it's coming off of tlj the walking controversy which has actually only gotten worse. I find it hilarious that both tlj fans and tlj haters think the movie was catering to the other side, that's how you know that something is very wrong with this Frankenstein of a movie. So if tlj was the sequel to something everyone loved, and half of people hated it, where does that leave the sequel to tlj which it seems like both halves hate? So my question is why would it do rogue one numbers? Where is that 155m gonna come from with a movie that sounds like it has almost nothing going for it (the only good thing I've consistently heard is that the action isn't bad in a vacuum). Maybe I'm being biased by schadenfreude right now because of how much tlj and tros (which I don't plan to see) hurt me as a big fan of Finn and Rey in tfa, but I just don't see how it would reach rogue one ow is at this point. Meanwhile it will definitely do less than Dom overseas so I don't see how anyone considers 1b a possibility anymore. Where is 500m os gonna come from when big 5 Europe are going to top out at like 300m based on the last few days, china will be 20m TOTAL. Again maybe I'm having too much fun imagining how lowwwww can it gooooo but... 1b frankly is more likely to be the ceiling than the floor imo

I'm back for the bloodbath. **** it I'm predicting under Rogue One 155m OW

so basically it's gonna play like aladdin, smaller ow because of prerelease mixed buzz but audiences love it and it has excellent legs