Tau Ceti

Where do you think its theatre count goes from here? Do they push into the 1,200 range or are we at the high water mark? It's fantastic to see Lanthimos bank a modest profit -- it means we'll get more of him. Of the arthouse films in play for Oscars, I like it best as a dark horse because the performances are so clutch. See what happens at the GGs.

This is exactly right. It won't be the biggest bomb but it is the biggest disappointment. Yes, it's technically a biopic but considering what adult space movies have done in this release corridor this decade FM's results are baffling. There will be a lot of questions at Universal about how they marketed this. That said, a few Oscar noms may still be in the cards. And I think history will treat it well if only for the quality of the space scenes.

Yes. Doubling First Man's reported production would be $118 million. I think that's the last fair goal post with the int'l markets still available.

As for bomb of the fall, doesn't Hunter Killer now take that title? This is atrociously bad if they spent $40 million on it.

I'd say its holds have been ordinary not brutal. It's still pacing for a 3 multi. But it's clearly not behaving like an adult-oriented award contender. And there's not enough slack left in its overseas markets to make up the difference there. It will take a write down. A shame.

Going the Venice/Toronto + early October route seemed like a good bet early in the year when this appeared to be a comp to Gravity and The Martian but seems awfully questionable now. The positive reviews it did receive post-festivals were almost completely overshadowed by the inane flag controversy and it's now sandwiched between what will likely be three of the top five October releases of all time. It's the very definition of lost in the shuffle. In retrospect a big tent, more explicitly patriotic marketing pitch at Thanksgiving, Christmas, or next July before the 50th would have been a smarter play. That said, popular movies find an audience regardless of when they're released and clearly people didn't like a lot of this film. Gosling's inscrutability, the sometimes maddening shaky cam, the cold tone, the predictability of the kitchen scenes -- I think First Man works despite these criticisms and will give it a second theatre viewing. But clearly others were bothered. The last, and perhaps main, reason I would give for the failure has been observed in Variety and other spots: the moon landing seems small scale at this point in cinema history and the marketing never overcame this. The millenial audience does not grasp the import and the baby boom audience is busy watching ASIB. The true follow-on to Apollo 13 was Gravity and First Man, fairly or not, seems like low stakes.

That just screams unimportance.

Terrible First Man number.

Based on comps, first Monday points First Man to around $60 - 65 mil. Still very preliminary of course.

I'd also like to offer my congrats on the century for this one. Very well deserved. I tracked this quite closely in excel and it's trajectory was fabulous. Interesting to see how backloaded it wound up being; people have said it should've opened between 3,000 - 4,000 theatres but in retrospect the slower roll out and ramp-up looks smart to me. Hard to argue with a 4.2 multi. With Japan coming it will get another century overseas. Definitely a hit.

Boom! Arrival adding +1,000 theatres. There's life left to this run!

I know on the $100 mil front everybody's looking at the failure of Passengers but how about the success of Arrival? It'll be at $95.5 mil after this weekend, inches from the 4x multi. A BP nom and a modest re-expansion will be enough to get it to the century.

If The Visit was Shyamalan's first solid single in years then Split appears to be his first extra base. Never write off a legacy too soon. It will be interesting to see what kind of budgets he's entrusted with in future.

I think this is behaving better than we thought it would a month ago. Based on Flight, I thought it's "natural" progression would land between 91 and 95 mil. It's going to get just shy of 96 mil "natural". A BP nom will clearly bump it to the century. This is doing fine.

High-Rise was the lowest grosser I believe. A so-so flick. Wasn't entirely sure what it wanted to be.

This. I got my bipolar diagnosis six years. There's a handful of people in the celebrity world that have helped provide comfort, laughter, and perspective with the condition. None more so than Carrie Fisher.

Arrival drops 28%... from TWO weeks ago. Ha!

Snubbed by the Globes! Bastards!

Good!

Arrival at $1.6 mil Friday. If it gets the 3.5x multiplier it got last week then $5.6 mil or a 23% drop for the weekend. Yessss.

Moana at $4.147 mil. On target. Almost exactly $18 mil with last weekend's multiplier.

It's been some time since a movie affected me this powerfully. There is a deep, deep realism to MBTS that makes it ordinary and immersive despite the enormous tragedy portrayed. For the first 45 minutes I was thinking about my own father's death to an extent I haven't in years and had to hold it together in the theatre. Long story short, this is why I go to the movies.

Agree that break even will be a struggle. You know what I honestly think is hurting it? The generic title. It's so, so uncreative and doesn't give people any particular reason to come out. They could've just called it "Ensemble Holiday Comedy" and left it at that.

The Martian was clearly hurt last year by the huge breakout from Fury Road. If it does get in (which isn't assured) I really don't think Sully will draw votes like that from Arrival. The two will be viewed as the higher end of a very low grossing crop rather than as outright blockbusters.

I'm coming around to this thinking after having the opposite impression for weeks. The studio left five or even ten million on the table on its opening weekend but the film is now rapidly making that back by exceeding its calendar configuration (its dailies as a percentage of opening weekend are now higher than Gravity). By sacrificing early money for later theatre counts, Arrival could conceivably still have +1000 on Christmas Eve. That would totally exceed expectations for an early November release. I'm not sure how much Paramount deserves credit for it and how much is just good fortune. But if there's an argument to be made for deliberately backloading a film, this is it.