James

It’s beyond me why WB is not fast tracking another Conjuring movie, as well as another Annabelle and another Nun. Those movies are so cheap to make and they are printing money.

160 DOM OW 410 DOM 550 OS 960 WW

Imo, after Deadpool & Wolverine I don’t see a sure fire hit until the next Avengers movie. I see both Cap 4 and Thunderbolts under 500m WW (imo Thunderbolts will be a mega-bomb) and Fantastic 4 is a wildcard, but historically these characters never broke out on the big screen. Maybe 600m if the WOM is out of this world. But really, I expect a repeat of 2023 for Marvel, but without the saving grace that was GOTG3.

Given its initial warning handicap on Youtube, it's impressive that the trailer for this already passed the trailer for Deadpool and Wolverine in views in just 5 days. I don't know about 169m OW, but I do think 150m is achievable on sheer hype alone. What the legs will be - that's another matter completely and I have no idea.

Don’t know where you get that, but Twitter alone has over 40m views only from the big english channels I see: WB, DC, JokerMovie, Lady Gaga and Discussing Film. That’s not even accounting for smaller channels or foreign WB accounts.

I think that pre-trailer teaser with Joker laughing in the rain actually hurt the trailer views of the actual trailer. For example on Twitter on the DiscussingFilm page the pre-trailer has 31m views in one day and the trailer has 12m in 15 hours. Same story on the DC official IG page. Of course, WB doesn’t care about that because either way it’s hype for the movie but it makes it harder to track and compare the impact of the trailer. Maybe a poster like Deadpool did would have been better as a pre-trailer tease. But yeah, this is enormous on TikTok, Twitter and IG. On YT I really think that warning is hurting it, especially giving how big it is on other platforms.

This. I really really have a hard time seeing this under 150m OW.

The trailer makes it look like Harley might be the abuser in this relationship instead of Joker. That would make for a really interesting twist.

Yeah, this will be enormous. I love the social media side of things and this will be a phenomenon on TikTok. And TikTok blew up DM3 and Barbie. And if you think all the couples out there won’t dress up like Joker and Harley🤣

To be honest seeing how much hype Joker has: the first teaser poster went viral everywhere and trended like crazy I have a hard time seeing it under 200m DOM. Imo it will do close to 150m OW alone.

This is the exact same style used for the first Joker teaser poster, down to the colors. It looks great imo

This. Aside from the Costner movie everything else is decently budgeted and pretty much risk free (yes, even Joker; 200m or not, even if the movie is bad, and the rumour is it’s the exact opposite, it will make back its money in a week max).

Beetlejuice, Furiosa, Joker 2, Lord of the Rings, Twisters - all should do at least well. Trap and The Watched - WB is usually very good with promoting horror movies. Challengers, Red One, and Horizons - I have no idea.

Neither of these two will be that big overseas where I suspect LOTR will hit it big.

The release date for this is now December 2024. Also since this is less than a year from release shouldn’t it be moved to the main part of the forums?

I’m really starting to think that the Lord of the Rings animated movies has a good shot of exploding. December is pretty empty except for that Lion King movie that I’m not so sure about. And given how so many people from the movies are returning behind the scenes there’s a good chance this could be good. Especially overseas, the potential is huge. Could see it over 500m WW.

I don’t think people being fed up with IPs is the problem. IPs are still the name of the game and looking at this year’s TOP 10 it’s easy to see why. The problem is imo a combination of 3 factors: 1. Drop in quality and choices that are unpopular with the GA. Let’s take Marvel for example. Granted, there is superhero fatigue but just look at GOTG. It made a ton of money because it was very well received. Similar to Spiderverse. And Joker 2 will make a ton as well if it’s well received. Same with Deadpool 3. Star Wars played the nostalgia card but the drop in quality was obvious. People who don’t understand the source material were put in charge. Same with Pirates of the Caribbean. Same with Harry Potter. And a ton of other franchises. But let’s not kid ourselves: when that Harry Potter sequel will drop with the OG characters that will break all kinds of records. Same if they make a Tolkien movie with Peter Jackson returning. People were burned too many times by bad movies. 2. Streaming changed how audiences consume content. I am going way less often to the cinema now than before covid tbh. 3.Asia in general and China specifically moved away from Hollywood content, which caused overall inflated WW grosses of the 2010s to drop even more.

Well, dropping 81% from opening day is still better than the -92% in China and is more in line with the rest of the known overseas drops so far. Though to have that as your silver lining… Tbh I don’t even know what to say. I remember people saying Fantastic Beasts 3 was a flop but that made over 400m WW. This is locked to only make around 190m if lucky. Tbh I think this is history in the making. I don’t think we’ll see a bombage of this level again anytime soon.

This looks surprsingly good. I think it might actually do well lol.

Also wild to me that Maze Runner gets dragged into this conversation. Those are some amazingly profitable movies. All of them. Their combined budget was under 160m and they earned almost 1b at the box office. Which is why the director was hired for the new Apes movie and now for Zelda.

Mockingjay Part 2 made 660m on a 160m budget (+55m in advertising). That’s 4x it’s budget. Or 3x if you include advertising. Not only was it not a flop, but it made Lionsgate a ton of money from theatres alone. Was it a disappointment compared to previous Hunger Games movies? Yes. But to compare it with mega bombs like The Marvels is utterly ridiculous. They don’t belong in the same conversation and neither does MJ2 belong in the same conversation with Divergent, which was indeed a flop/bomb. Marvel spends way more on their projects nowadays and they keep flopping/bombing one after another. That’s the problem.

No. It’s LIKELY it gets under 50m. The kicker is there’s a chance it gets under 40m. This movie is like a perfect storm of doom.

Eh I doubt it goes that low but I saw Shawn’s official prediction of 35-49m for the DOM OW and looking at the even worse OS numbers I do think there’s a (not slim) chance this finishes under 200m worldwide. Funnily enough, I think it might perfectly mirror Birds of Prey, but with lower overseas numbers.

Literally no chance this makes 80m OS this weekend. I would be surprised if it touches 60.

As a casual fan, I lost interest in Marvel because: 1. it’s just too much to follow and it feels like homework at this point 2. I wouldn’t mind that if I actually cared about any of these new characters but at this point not even Marvel itself seems to care enough about them to develop them 3. The character assassination of someone previous favorites: Wanda, Thor. At this point that idea of bringing back IM and Cap seems like the only thing that could draw me back in. I am excited about X-Men and Deadpool though, but only because I feel I can go in without watching 1000 botched movies and TV shows beforehand. I really hope they will keep it as simple as possible. This multiverse stuff is really too much.