Indeed, I don't see them dropping Ascendant. They would lose more face and damage their reputation more in admitting this failure than they will by the financial bomb it will turn out to be. They'll just do it just to get it over with, to "please the fans" or whatever and give the franchise closure since it's just one more. I read an article that likened this to the movie version of Netflix picking up a canceled network show just to finish out the series with one last season to give it and the fans closure. Just do it. No one's getting anything out of it and they might come up a little short in the end with the diminished, or outright lack of, profits, but they came this far and they might as well just cross the finish line and be done with the damn thing once and for all. With Lionsgate's foreign presale thing covering a chunk of their budgets upfront, they won't lose nearly as much on this sunk cost endeavor as other studios might -- because indeed I believe this time they will actually come up with a loss even after all the revenue streams are done. Just take the hit. With 3 out of 4 films already in the can, it's just silly not to just do the last one and it would make them look bad if they didn't.
Now, who wants to do an over/under for how many points Lionsgate's stock will drop tomorrow?