Lestranger

Parking Lot report from Wisconsin looked pretty bleak yesterday. Saw Boys in the Boat with the fam. Never seen a xmas eve that quiet before. We go every year. There was a packer game on, which is basically a state religion here, but they suck this year and the season is already over. It was absolutely crickets. I expect the weekdays to be big this week and next weekend. Never underestimate the holiday weekdays. Still though, makes me long for the 2000s and 90s when theaters were just packed full of people during holiday times. Even recently, I remember seeing La La Land in a sold out theater here in Wisconsin during xmas, I just cant even imagine that happening now.

That was maybe the most fun I have had following the box office. What a weekend. r/boxoffice felt like the fall of saigon. Anyone remember the freaking Doritos argument?

I am definitely not anti-streaming, but I think the pandemic crisis pushed the medium to new places that undermined its own viability. Speaking in terms of MCU, Disney wanted to support their new streaming service so they produced a lot of Marvel content. Not a great move, the quality suffered, MCU brand became tarnished, we see the results now. Additionally, and I think more damning, was the rush to compress the release window to SVOD. Covid basically decimated the transactional home entertainment window. We are slowly getting it back with people like freaking Tom Cruise manning the barricades of exhibition. But Disney has given away the milk for free now for a couple of years, people are use to getting the newest Marvel movie a couple of months after cinema release on D+. 60 days is the new window from cinema to SVOD. It was 240 days before the pandemic. The entertainment industry panicked and jettison 180 days of revenue via transactional sales (VOD, EST, etc). Fucking nuts and it has to go backwards now.

Anything over 110m feels like a success only in regards to the horrific tracking. Contextually, it needed 180m to match V2 opening weekend. It clearly is not in the same ballpark as that film. Dr strange opened to 187m a year ago. Thor, 144m. This is struggling to get to 120m? Something has changed permanently within MCU. Best hope is for amazing legs, which seem possible with the audience reactions so far.

Evil Dead was a fantastic experience. Try to see it with a full house. People were yelling and screaming. The best type of theater experience with a rowdy crowd. Film is not a masterpiece, but it is definitely one of the better horror films put out in recent years. A must for anyone who likes the Evil Dead vibe, as much comedy as horror and buckets of gore.

20M is happening, buzz is high

Awareness never broke 50 on Quorum and interest never broke 55. Seems like it's just not gonna take off with any general audience interest. Anything above 30m ow feels like a win given the situation. But its not making a dime in profit.

This feels a bit underwhelming for Creed. Presales and tracking felt like this would pop off more.

The Quorum numbers having been super consistent with Scream and Creed. I expect both to really break out. Those Scream preview numbers look way too good to be true. I mean what ow multi would you use for the forecasted preview night number? Scream 5 did 8.5 off a 3.5m preview. Let's say it somehow does 8m previews, then what? 6x, so almost 50m. That feels like the basement now even though official trackers are saying 25-38. That just doesn't align with the data points that are out there now.

I feel a wave of meltdowns coming on... its just in the air right now

Deadline's spin in their Exclusive update is hilarious. This ant aint doing more then 6x previews. Struggle bus to 100m 3day.

Knock number is so trash. Felt like there was way more buzz on original trailer drop. But the tracking didn’t lie, was sub 40 awareness through last week. Can’t be big if people don’t know you exist.

The nepo baby thing is trite. Nepotism rules most industries. Yeah it sucks when people who are bad at their job get work. But I have found with actors that if you aren't really good, you aren't getting a lot great work. Jamie Lee Curtis may have gotten her break because her parents were famous. She took that luck and worked her ass off to turn it into an amazing career. Josh Brolin. Nic Cage. Michael Douglas, and hundreds more. Most nepo babies fail miserably instead of rise to the top, mostly because they don't have the drive or work ethic that is required to be successful in acting. For every John David Washington (who is awful), there are a few JLCs. The whole very recent discussion nepo babies has a strong element of gossipy group think without much knowledge of how the entertainment industry actually works.

Kinda wish I faced the frozen tundra to see avatar today. Stayed home with fam to watch Glass Onion. Sort of fun movie with little of the charm of Knives Out. Crazy how same writer, director, and star character can feel so different. I guess the autumn New England setting was a huge part of the appeal or maybe the characters. Who knows everyone seems to like glass onion.

-38 windchill now in Wisconsin, trying to get the fam to see Fabelamn's tomorrow. But we will probably just binge new Jack Ryan. Streaming ftw.