hw64
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What if Endgame made $600m dom off the back of Infinity War's $670m? Even The Last Jedi's $620m was considered pretty disappointing off the back of The Force Awakens's $936m. It's the old fallacy of "removing all context from a box office run to make it look better than it is". Expectations and context matter — an extremely financially successful movie which is one of the highest-grossing movies of all time can still nevertheless be a disappointment if it fails to meet reasonable pre-release expectations of its performance.
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The problem is that you're double-counting by adding in predicted Wednesday and Thursday grosses internationally and then adding in an international 3-day weekend which you've worked out based off of the $93m international weekend last week, which isn't a 3-day and which already includes some Wednesday and Thursday grosses in certain markets.
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International weekends are never 3-days, they're a sum of all the "weekends" in overseas territories, which is Fri-Sun in a lot of markets but Thu-Sun and Wed-Sun in some others. The actual international 3-day last week was probably around $80-$82m.
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You realize that $93m isn't a 3-day, right?
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
hw64 replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
That $1.331b through Sunday international gross includes a gross of $211.8m through Sunday in China. The overseas total and the overseas market grosses on BOM are independent of each other; the overseas total is often fully up-to-date, but BOM is often slow to update the individual market totals. The fact that the overseas total is at $1.331b but the China gross on BOM is at $188m doesn't mean that the $1.331b overseas total only includes $188m from China — that $1.331b includes the most recently reported $211.8m through Sunday in China, it's just that the China gross on BOM, which is again independent from the overseas total, hasn't been updated yet. -
Wednesday and Thursday figures are rolled into the weekend in certain overseas markets where the box office "weekend" is defined as Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun. The international weekend gross of $88.6m isn't a Fri-Sun gross, it's a sum of the "weekend" grosses in each overseas market, so that's Fri-Sun in some markets, but Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun in some others.
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Scream: No Way Home: Looks decently similar to me, especially in the 18-34 audience pull and the Latino/Hispanic draw. No Way Home drew far more kids, obviously, but there's a good amount of overlap here. In any case, regardless of the extent to which you think Scream was effective competition for No Way Home, I think it's pretty evident that it was, in any case, significantly more competition than Avatar 2 faced this weekend.
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All of the mentioned movies had significant new releases on their MLK weekends and then no new significant releases the week after. No Way Home and Sing 2 had Scream ($34m), Aquaman had Glass ($46m), Jumanji had Bad Boys ($73m) and Dolittle ($28m). Avatar 2 doesn't have anything on that level this MLK weekend.