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hw64

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  1. 3D revenue shares through MLK weekend: Domestic: 58% of $576m. International (without China): 54% of $1.13b. China: 99% of $224m.
  2. He's right. ATP for Avatar was around $10 compared to the Q4 2009 average of $7.61. Avatar 2's average ticket price is very likely $14+, so it'll end up at around 48 million admissions compared to Avatar's mid-70M tickets, say like 73-76.
  3. Not horrible, just not the exceptional late legs it'd need to get to $700m. Gross will be circa-$600m through Monday with the last 7 days (Tue-Mon) being around $29m. Weekly 25% drops from here gets it to 3x that number, so $87m, taking the total to $687m or so. Still not enough.
  4. What if Endgame made $600m dom off the back of Infinity War's $670m? Even The Last Jedi's $620m was considered pretty disappointing off the back of The Force Awakens's $936m. It's the old fallacy of "removing all context from a box office run to make it look better than it is". Expectations and context matter — an extremely financially successful movie which is one of the highest-grossing movies of all time can still nevertheless be a disappointment if it fails to meet reasonable pre-release expectations of its performance.
  5. The problem is that you're double-counting by adding in predicted Wednesday and Thursday grosses internationally and then adding in an international 3-day weekend which you've worked out based off of the $93m international weekend last week, which isn't a 3-day and which already includes some Wednesday and Thursday grosses in certain markets.
  6. International weekends are never 3-days, they're a sum of all the "weekends" in overseas territories, which is Fri-Sun in a lot of markets but Thu-Sun and Wed-Sun in some others. The actual international 3-day last week was probably around $80-$82m.
  7. You realize that $93m isn't a 3-day, right?
  8. Puss's 4-day was 17% ahead of Showman. If it has the same holds as Showman off the 4-day and holds at an average of 17% ahead for the rest of its run, then it literally makes $200.1m. This isn't an actual analysis of Puss's chances to hit $200m, I just thought it was funny to note.
  9. $39.8m over the 4-day with these updated estimates. Close enough that it could still cross $40m with actuals, but that $0.2m will basically need to come entirely from Monday, as the $32.5m 3-day is basically set in stone at this point.
  10. That $1.331b through Sunday international gross includes a gross of $211.8m through Sunday in China. The overseas total and the overseas market grosses on BOM are independent of each other; the overseas total is often fully up-to-date, but BOM is often slow to update the individual market totals. The fact that the overseas total is at $1.331b but the China gross on BOM is at $188m doesn't mean that the $1.331b overseas total only includes $188m from China — that $1.331b includes the most recently reported $211.8m through Sunday in China, it's just that the China gross on BOM, which is again independent from the overseas total, hasn't been updated yet.
  11. Wednesday and Thursday figures are rolled into the weekend in certain overseas markets where the box office "weekend" is defined as Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun. The international weekend gross of $88.6m isn't a Fri-Sun gross, it's a sum of the "weekend" grosses in each overseas market, so that's Fri-Sun in some markets, but Thu-Sun or Wed-Sun in some others.
  12. $1,223.6b was its overseas gross through Tuesday. The $18.7m comes from Wednesday and Thursday grosses in overseas markets where Wednesday and Thursday aren't counted as part of the weekend.
  13. Scream: No Way Home: Looks decently similar to me, especially in the 18-34 audience pull and the Latino/Hispanic draw. No Way Home drew far more kids, obviously, but there's a good amount of overlap here. In any case, regardless of the extent to which you think Scream was effective competition for No Way Home, I think it's pretty evident that it was, in any case, significantly more competition than Avatar 2 faced this weekend.
  14. All of the mentioned movies had significant new releases on their MLK weekends and then no new significant releases the week after. No Way Home and Sing 2 had Scream ($34m), Aquaman had Glass ($46m), Jumanji had Bad Boys ($73m) and Dolittle ($28m). Avatar 2 doesn't have anything on that level this MLK weekend.
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