The Eternal Camping Indiegogo campaign by Water Bottle is now live! Check it out, donate, spread the word!

Welcome to The Box Office Theory — Forums

Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.


Free Account
  • Content count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Community Reputation


About firedeep

  • Rank
    Global Phenomenon
  • Birthday

Profile Information

  • Gender
  • Location
    Slow Zone

Recent Profile Visitors

5,599 profile views
  1. early reviews are exceptional. This could the fariy tale versio of Avatar.
  2. CBO Week 13 ' content edited ...' Like Monster Hunt and Bodyguard, all EDKO films are now distributed by Union Pictures. With CEOs leaving, WuZhou have undermarketed two films in a row: the Zhao Liying starred romcom Rise of Tomboy and now Hotpot. Earlier this year, their Kill Time and CTHD2 also underperformed ... ----- I should have never returned to this site. I wanted to on this site share knowledge and information about CBO and the industry, not to see someone continuously prove how he is right and how everybody else is wrong, downplay China's box office and how it is gonna collapse, how it does not matter at all to Hollywood. It's so pointless. So let the real expert do the work. I am leaving forever, because I am often wrong with my predictions (making predictions is not a problem; I always dare to be wrong with every prediction I make, all these years), feel have no value to this site, and yes because I am annoyed. Thank you in advance if any moderator can help delete my profile and all posts on this site, would be very appreciated. Maybe I will just ask Shawn to see if it's possible. It's been 5 years. Thank you everyone, everyone I mean, too many friends to name but thank you all, you know I am talking of you . (I can be reached on Wechat in case you are interested. Maybe Olive could tell you about wechat.)
  3. if a person are so down on China's economy and its box office, why bother keep tracking it, posting socalled insights and predictions all day, which most of the time are negative, and laughablely off. I am annoyed. got put someone on agnore list.
  4. it can't be only 750m....
  5. Disney this year has seven releases: SW7 (825m), Zootopia (1.5B+), Jungle Book (in April), Civial War (in May), Alice 2 (also in May), Finding Dory (in August or September), Dr Strange (in Nov) The seven Disney films combined box office in China, over or under 6.5B.
  6. I am in, thinking this will play into May holiday.
  7. Update on May schedule of imported releases: 5/6 TBD Captain America: Civil War 5/20 X-Men: Apocalypse 5/20 Angry Birds 5/27 Alice Through the Looking Glass 6/3 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2 May TBD Baahubali: The Beginning 6/15 Warcraft Note: as of current, none is officially confirmed by CFGC or Film Bureau
  8. LOL why don't you just define 100% decrease as "real" drop. 2016 wont be down 20%, neither will Apr. Your predict of sub 20% (increase or decrease) will fail.
  9. So Satrurday daily box office is only 210m, barly beat last year's 175m. Last year, the four day QM weekend was 620m (105m, 175m, 195nm, 145m); three day holiday 515m (175m, 195nm, 145m). This year S-S-M will be only 560m or so, a minor 8% increase... The QM releases are too weak: Bodyguard, Bro, terrible reviews; Hotpot, under marketed. This year, local films are very weak, except for Mermaid (an exeception), and maybe a coule October holiday releases. The expected low (relatively, maybe 30%) YOY increase of 2016 has the most to do with a weak slate of local films, not because the market cooling down. No worry, next year will be full blood resurrection. For April, even if Jungle Book makes 1.5B, Apr would still be unsavable... as the first half month is poised to be very dead, just like the last days of March. But April cann't be "the first real down month in more that a decade", not even close. Period decrease happens once in a while. Just a few examples out of my mind: Jan 2010 ---- 1210m Jan 2011 ---- 1080m Dec 2012 ---- 2560m Dec 2013 ---- 2120m Jul 2011 ---- 1520m Jul 2012 ---- 1430m Aug 2011 ---- 1550m Aug 2012 ---- 1440m (summer 2012, June-Aug, as a whole, was a down actually) Apr 2013 ---- 1800m Apr 2014 ---- 1820m In the last six years alone, at least Jan, Feb, Apr, Jul, Aug, Dec all have seen 'downs'. Important box office slots at CBO have all seen 'down' or 'flat' YOY: May holiday (2014), Chinese New year holiday (2011), Christmas-New Year holiday (2011), October holiday (2011), Dragon Boat Festival (2012), Qingming Festival (2016), summer 2012, winter 2013. It happens when the openers are weak. Mino slots like V day, Qixi, Women's Day, Children's D, Mooncake Day ... also have been down. World is not ending .... .... As for sub 10% Month to month increase, that's common. in CBO, June-Aug = summer, Mar-May = Spring, Sep-Nov = Fall, Dec-Feb = Winter
  10. 1B is locked for ZOO. People keep underestimating it. BvS not even making 900m. The two wont even be close.
  11. I find bodyguard douban score already dropped to 5.9…… so 400m is not a certainty.
  12. it's confirmed, 2D closes but 3D, IMAX extends to Apr 17. The screening keys will be released on Sunday.
  13. It's possible that Hotpot overtakes Bodyguard at the end of run. Bodyguard 200m OW, good. 400m is locked even reviews are average. It will do well in small cities where audiences are not very senstive to bad reviews. Hotpot will also do 400m+, maybe making 500m. Sleep Bro, just as expected, dead on arrival. will only do 150m-ish. another flop from LeVP. BVS and Bro will be close on Sat, both around 30m. ZOO will beat them both on Sunday. Friday per show admission: Bodyguard ----- 35 people on 26% screens Hotpot -------- 25 people on 23% screens Sleep Bro ------ 22 people on 21% screens BVS -------------23 people on 11% screens Zoo -------------- 23 people on 6% screens (animation on weekday) Theaters smartly did the right schedule.
  14. But with a 34m OD, Hotpot will still make 400m+, just not breakout numbers.
  15. well technically Mr Six is also a crime drama/thriller.