Putting International BO Numbers in Perspective

[Rudolf]

India is an extreme example. Perhaps Nigeria would be even more so. But the interesting cases where those different methods deliver different results are France, Japan and China. Those countries have a siceable local film industry and also very strong Hollywood movie numbers. If I want to compare the numbers of these markets I have to concentrate on International (Hollywood) movies and ignore the local ones. For China where they only show MegaBlockBusters all the small Hollywood movies (Tyler Perry) are irrelevant. My method of using only the 15 biggest HWM of all markets cconcentrates on these. It does not matter what the 400+ smaller HwM make around the world or what the Chinese local movies make. Japan local movies increase the last years,but HWM decrease there, so wehave to expect smaller numbers from them. If a movie (Harry Potter,The Hobbit?) still makes big nubers there, it speaks for the popularity of the franchise.

[Rudolf]

Comparing DOM and China 2009(2010)

the problem with 2009 is AVATAR, which counts to 2010 for China

with my 15 biggest HWM get the quotients for 2009:13.54 and for 2010:6.67 the difference exaggerates even the growth of China

DOM China real Quotient

2012 $166,112,167 $68,224,012 2.43 underperforms DOM

Transformers 3 $402,111,870 $62,650,073 6.42 overperforms China

IA3 $196,573,705 $22,986,823 8.55 underperforms DOM and China

HP6 $301,959,197 $22,840,410 13.22

G I Joe $150,201,498 $20,058,565 7.49

Night Museum 2 $177,243,721 $17,715,959 10.00

T4 $125,322,469 $16,398,243 7.64

UP $293,004,164 $13,953,148 21.00 underperforms China

X-Men 4 $179,883,157 $11,781,845 15.27 underperforms China

DragonBall $9,362,785 $9,516,837 0.98 overperforms China

Star Trek $257,730,019 $8,572,474 30.06 overperforms DOM

Transporter 3 $31,715,062 $8,565,154 3.70 overperforms China

Valkyrie $83,077,833 $8,389,458 9.90

Slumdog $141,319,928 $7,906,296 17.87 underperforms China

This is it $72,091,016 $7,071,742 10.19

Avatar $749,766,139 $209,203,008 3.58 underperforms DOM

SH1 $209,028,679 $11,097,744 18.84 underperforms China

11.01 Mean

[Rudolf]

Comparing DOM and Russia 2012 (top grossing movies in Russia all are HWM)

Quotient for 2011:7.38 for 2012:9.05 (mainly because Russia does not like Superhero-movies and weaker Rubel )

as these are the top performers in Russia,naturally most overperform there

big exception the Suerhero-movies and the animated movies (Lorax,Brave) that flop almost everywhere else and ofcourse The Hunger Games

2012 DOM Russia real Quotient

IA4 $158,628,742 $49,329,109 3.22

Mad3 $215,920,704 $49,287,386 4.38

TA $622,888,162 $43,645,096 14.27 SH

MiB3 $179,020,854 $36,536,817 4.90

JC(oM) $73,078,100 $33,369,163 2.19

WotT $83,670,083 $22,262,485 3.76

BS $65,233,400 $21,998,643 2.97

TASM $261,471,268 $21,890,508 11.94

SH

Prom $126,477,084 $21,267,837 5.95

TE2 $83,269,690 $17,766,482 4.69

J2 $103,860,290 $17,558,757 5.92

TDKR $443,355,816 $17,480,637 25.36 SH

Brave $233,558,247 $16,795,061

13.91 DOM

Lorax $214,030,500 $15,864,074 13.49

DOM

THG $408,010,692 $13,405,279 30.44 DOM

Tit3D $57,884,114 $13,361,254 4.33

9.48 Mean

Edited September 27, 2012 by Rudolf

[Fake]

This is a great method. I'd however suggest one correction.The movies you are using are 'top-grossing in Russia', so the ratio we get is only for those movies which succeed in Russia. It is possible that a $200m grossing movie in NA only makes 10M in Russia. That should be incorporated too.An apple-to-apple comparison would be to compare Top-15 movies of NA to Top-15 movies of Russia. That way we can know the true market potential ratio. (It won't make that much difference, since most of the Top-15 in Russia should appear in Top-15 of NA as well).

[Rudolf]

This is a great method. I'd however suggest one correction.The movies you are using are 'top-grossing in Russia', so the ratio we get is only for those movies which succeed in Russia. It is possible that a $200m grossing movie in NA only makes 10M in Russia. That should be incorporated too.An apple-to-apple comparison would be to compare Top-15 movies of NA to Top-15 movies of Russia. That way we can know the true market potential ratio. (It won't make that much difference, since most of the Top-15 in Russia should appear in Top-15 of NA as well).

But that is exactly what I am doing. Top 15 HWM in any market give the size to compute quotients and corrections. You can look it up in my statistics thread.I only used the top Russian movies to demonstrate this.BTW do you have a list of the top 15 HWM in India for 2011, 2012 or older? Edited September 28, 2012 by Rudolf

[vc2002]

OK, Skyfall finally passed the magic £100m, and it did it in 2D.How much does it equal for an American release?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Where has Rudolf been ?

[kswiston]

OK, Skyfall finally passed the magic £100m, and it did it in 2D.How much does it equal for an American release?

Just going by population differences? Multiply by 5 roughly.I'm not sure what the average ticket price in the UK is though.

[riczhang]

OK, Skyfall finally passed the magic £100m, and it did it in 2D.How much does it equal for an American release?

$1000 million USD. Generally you multiply by 10, and switch the £ to a $.

[Fake]

UK grosses in GBP and US grosses in USD for various ranked film on all-time list.#10 57.6 423.3 7.35x#20 50.7 373.6 7.37x#30 43.2 318.4 7.37xSo it's pretty consistent. 100m GBP in UK roughly means 736m in US. Skyfall should finish over 102m, that means it had more impressive gross than Avatar in US, in 2D.

Edited January 6, 2013 by Fake

[raniE]

I think the numbers for the Hobbit are definitely going to be big. We haven't had a really big hit movie so far this year, and the Swedish audience went gaga for the Lord of the Rings movies. I don't know if the numbers will be at quite the same level as the Rings, but I definitely expect The Hobbit to blow the competition out of the water. Skyfall should be able to do quite well too, as the latest two Bond films were both bigger than the biggest film so far this year, but it won't stand up to The Hobbit.

Well, I called this back in June. The number one film in Sweden for 2012 is The Hobbit, followed closely by Skyfall (according to Mojo, I can't find Swedish stats for later than November, at which point Skyfall was number one, as Hobbit hadn't been released yet).

[Tower]

Calculating multipliers (to reach DOM gross) from the MPAA report for 2012:

 

China: 4

Japan: 4.5

UK & France: 6.35

India: 7.7

Germany & Korea: 8.3

Russia & Australia: 9

Brazil: 13.5

[JohnnY]

I think the brazilian multiplier could decrease.

 

Brazil 2012 rank multiplied per 13.5:

 

1 The Avengers (2012) Disney $852.65

2 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Paris $732.36

3 Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox $600.75

4 The Amazing Spider-Man Sony $409.96

5 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted PPI $385.58

6 The Dark Knight Rises WB $365.8

7 De Pernas pro Ar 2 Paris $342.76

8 Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked Fox $295.52

9 Brave Disney $253.00

10 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey WB $244.66

 

16 movies above 200m (11 domestic)

24 above 150m (17 domestic)

31 above 100m (31 domestic)

 

With a 11 multiplier...

 

 

1 The Avengers (2012) Disney $694.75

2 The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Paris $596.73

3 Ice Age: Continental Drift Fox $489.5

4 The Amazing Spider-Man Sony $334.04

5 Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted PPI $314.17

6 The Dark Knight Rises WB $298.0

7 De Pernas pro Ar 2 Paris $279.28

8 Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked Fox $240.79

9 Brave Disney $206.14

10 The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey WB $199.35

 

9 above 200m

19 above 150m

28 above 100m

 

I think something around 11x would fit better

Edited March 22, 2013 by JohnnY

[Tower]

These are 2012 numbers, so they should be OK. If it looks too high this must mean that Brazil is more blockbuster centric than DOM.

[Rudolf]

For Brazil and 2012 my method of comparing only the 15 bigest Holywood BlockBuster-movies gives 10.6 as multiplier.

 

If you want to compare what Avengers did in Brazil to DOM, what does it matter how much De Pernas pro Ar 2 made in Brazil or a Tyler Perry movie made DOM.

Edited March 26, 2013 by Rudolf

[Rudolf]

Calculating multipliers (to reach DOM gross) from the MPAA report for 2012:

 

China: 4

Japan: 4.5

UK & France: 6.35

India: 7.7

Germany & Korea: 8.3

Russia & Australia: 9

Brazil: 13.5

with my method I get 9.3 for Japan with makes more sense to compare international movies

[Rudolf]

These are 2012 numbers, so they should be OK. If it looks too high this must mean that Brazil is more blockbuster centric than DOM.

That is correct. The 13.5 could be used to see whether a market is more into blockbusters or smaller movies of any provience.

[Tower]

For Brazil and 2012 my method of comparing only the 15 bigest Holywood BlockBuster-movies gives 10.6 as multiplier.

 

If you want to compare what Avengers did in Brazil to DOM, what does it matter how much De Pernas pro Ar 2 made in Brazil or a Tyler Perry movie made DOM.

 

It matters if you want to measure the importance of a film compared to the market as a whole.

[Rudolf]

It matters if you want to measure the importance of a film compared to the market as a whole.

sorry what do you want to compare?

When you compare Avengers to De Pernas pro Ar 2 or the total market in Brasil, you need not multiply.

When you compare Avengers in Brasil with Avengers DOM, I suggest my method.

 

or do you want do show that Hollywoodmovies are tiny in India or Japan?

Edited March 26, 2013 by Rudolf

[Tower]

sorry what do you want to compare?

When you compare Avengers to De Pernas pro Ar 2 or the total market in Brasil, you need not multiply.

When you compare Avengers in Brasil with Avengers DOM, I suggest my method.

 

I mean to compare the general effect of a film in a certain market, compared with the effect of the film in another market. Local films and non-blockbusters are part of said market, so the effect of a film on the market is dependent on them.

 

or do you want do show that Hollywoodmovies are tiny in India or Japan?

 

Certainly, Hollywood films have a much smaller effect on the market in India. Saying that the biggest hollywood film in India in a certain year made the equivalent of 600M DOM is misleading when you have a bunch of Bollywood films that made more.