Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

[Elessar]

5 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Avatar 2 could very well be like Zoolander 2 - the world passed it by and wasn't coming back...or it could be like T2 - a huger smash than the original...

 

It'll be somewhere in the middle as is usually the case. I mean, i have full confidence in Cameron delivering a good movie, but you really can't get much bigger than Avatar in terms of success.

Edited September 30, 2017 by Elessar

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, NCsoft said:

Also, if we're strictly talking about box office, Avatar 2 can gross more than Avatar yet still be a lesser hit, due to market expansions (China alone is about 6 or 7 times bigger than it was in 2009), and inflation, a movie doing 3B in 2020 is less impressive than a movie doing 2.78B in 2009, Avatar 2 out-grossing Avatar worldwide is definitely a possibility, I think.

 

I also think that the range is much smaller than going from Zoolander 1 to 2 or T1 to T2 (that one seem just impossible)

 

And it is also true that it would need to do much more than 3B to equal Avatar 1 performance.

 

Avatar 1 2.78B was made in a world market that was around 30B (2009 was 29.4B, 2010 was 31.6B, and avatar itself boosted that number a bit)

 

In 2020 the Global box office could be between 45b to 50b, 50% to 66% bigger than in Avatar 1 release days, depending on Hollywood market share between 2009 and 2020, it could take a good 20% to 50% more than 2.78B to be about the same performance.

 

If Avatar loose 50% of is world market share, it would still do around 2 billion...... 2 billion.... if it does only half has good...

[TwoMisfits]

Everyone is taking me literally:) - my examples were to show sequels released much later can sometimes be way bigger and sometimes be way smaller than the original film (and yes, sometimes be exactly the same, or a little more, or a little less, but I put up 2 movies to show range:)...everyone here seems to be taking it as gospel that this movie will do a minimum "X" (and less people, a maximum "X"), but seeing really nothing but a child cast, a large budget, and Cameron's name again really doesn't get us any real sense of what the mins and max for this movie might be (let alone its sequels)...

 

If you are asking my personal opinion, I don't think this can be bigger than the 1st, at least DOM (if you adjust the 1st's numbers), sight unseen to everything but what's been revealed, but that's as much as I'd even say at this point...and I'm not crazy enough to say "yep, I know that's gonna be the case right now" when the 1st trailer hasn't even been released:)...I'd make a much firmer call when Jan 1 2020 arrives and we see where the world's at, where the industry's at, what competitor movies got finalized to the schedule, what the teaser trailers (and 1st real trailer) look like, how people are responding to them or even if they are watching them, etc, etc...

 

 

[AniNate]

As a general rule, expecting a sequel to one of the biggest movies of all time - and by the same director of said movie - to be a disappointment at the box office more than three years before it is released is not a prediction made from a place of reason.

 

 

Edited September 30, 2017 by tribefan695

[IronJimbo]

30 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

As a general rule, expecting a sequel to one of the biggest movies of all time - and by the same director of said movie - to be a disappointment at the box office more than three years before it is released is not a prediction made from a place of reason.

 

 

As a general rule, general rules don't apply to Cameron.

[Plain Old Tele]

42 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

As a general rule, general rules don't apply to Cameron.

 

It's easy to say... except that sometimes they do. Case in point: TRUE LIES as a follow-up to T2. 

[FantasticBeasts]

Wait are we comparing a movie that grossed $60m to one that grossed 3b?

Lmaoo.

Avatar 2 is doing 2b If you ask me. It may very well do more If China goes wild (and it should)..

The sequels are another story I agree, but Avatar was too much an event of a movie so the curiosity factor alone will be enough for a nine figure gross for this one.

Edited September 30, 2017 by FantasticBeasts

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

It's easy to say... except that sometimes they do. Case in point: TRUE LIES as a follow-up to T2. 

I don't remember the general rule about going from a sci-fi sequel with your own script to an original action-comedy with someone else's script.

[Deuce66]

1 hour ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Wait are we comparing a movie that grossed $60m to one that grossed 3b?

Lmaoo.

Avatar 2 is doing 2b If you ask me. It may very well do more If China goes wild (and it should)..

The sequels are another story I agree, but Avatar was too much an event of a movie so the curiosity factor alone will be enough for a nine figure gross for this one.

 

Sometimes logic takes a holiday....or it's a case of really bad math skills. Avatar the sequel or whatever they decide to call it will be inescapable in terms of hype and promo. It will cross $300-400 million in it's first week of release, easily. It's already quite obvious that Avatar is headed in a different direction from the first movie 

[vc2002]

10 hours ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

It's easy to say... except that sometimes they do. Case in point: TRUE LIES as a follow-up to T2. 

If we're talking about non-real sequel followup, then I think Titanic->Avatar is a better comparison (for A1->A2). Yes it sounds crazy, but look at the facts, 12-year apart/11-year apart, a lot of backlash and people calling Cameron just got lucky last time, both a chick flick.

 

Not that I think A2 will increase 150m from A1, but you get the idea.

Edited October 1, 2017 by vc2002

[Plain Old Tele]

12 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

I don't remember the general rule about going from a sci-fi sequel with your own script to an original action-comedy with someone else's script.

 

It's absurd to have any sort of general rule, but equally absurd not to consider every Cameron project entirely his (creatively).

 

The simple fact is that nothing is guaranteed. A2 might increase. It just as easily might decrease, even significantly. 

[filmlover]

That Avatar skit on SNL tonight needs to be released online ASAP. 

[aabattery]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

That Avatar skit on SNL tonight needs to be released online ASAP. 

 

 

This gets a little too real.

[IronJimbo]

3 hours ago, Squadron Leader Tele said:

 

It's absurd to have any sort of general rule, but equally absurd not to consider every Cameron project entirely his (creatively).

 

The simple fact is that nothing is guaranteed. A2 might increase. It just as easily might decrease, even significantly. 

I don't disagree that it isn't guaranteed, Jim could get in an accident or something (god forbid)

Joking aside chances and probability are important, I see A2's chances of $3b well over 50%, which of course is why I took that bet with you.

 

When I say "Avatar will make over $3b", I don't actually mean it's 100% certain. What I mean is it's more likely than not.

 

It's honestly odd to assume that I meant it was a 100% certain.

People don't need to put a little disclaimer on every prediction they meant.

 

Then things like this - "Football team X is going to beat Y tomorrow"

 

would turn into this - "I think 8 times out of 10 football team X will beat football team y tomorrow"

It just isn't how humans talk tele

[Krissykins]

PAPYRUS 

 

[vc2002]

3 hours ago, aabattery said:

 

 

This gets a little too real.

 

Damn, you gotta give it to these SNL writers. How the heck could you come up with a comedy about a font.

[Brainbug]

The big wildcard for Avatar 2 is China. I dont know how much it made in todays ER, but in 2009 the chinese markets was much smaller than now and IF Avatar 2 can reach the heights of its predecessor there, it could be in for a Wolf Warrior 2 like performance.

 

Everywhere else it will decline. In many markets, Avatars grosses are just untinkable. It made 175M in France and 162M in Germany. The sequel wont come close to these numbers. Ofc, it has a realistic chance of topping the first film in markets like Brazil (58M) or Mexico (44M), because these markets are growing. But take Russia - the first one made 117M there! The Exchange Rates are shit now and they will be shit in 2021. Only if the ER are better than they were in 2009, Avatar 2 might have a chance to top 3 Billion.

 

But i dont believe it. Global sensations you cant duplicate. Avatar was a perfect storm. Its sequel will be a storm, but not a perfect one.

[The Futurist]

We are about 38 months away from the release of this movie.

 

New prediction game.

 

How many times, until the movie s release, people will repeat that Avatar 2 will do less than Avatar ?

 

Predict : 268 times.

 

 

[Valonqar]

20 minutes ago, The Futurist said:

We are about 38 months away from the release of this movie.

 

New prediction game.

 

How many times, until the movie s release, people will repeat that Avatar 2 will do less than Avatar ?

 

Predict : 268 times.

 

 

Per day. 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

The big wildcard for Avatar 2 is China. I dont know how much it made in todays ER, but in 2009 the chinese markets was much smaller than now and IF Avatar 2 can reach the heights of its predecessor there, it could be in for a Wolf Warrior 2 like performance.

 

Everywhere else it will decline. In many markets, Avatars grosses are just untinkable. It made 175M in France and 162M in Germany. The sequel wont come close to these numbers. Ofc, it has a realistic chance of topping the first film in markets like Brazil (58M) or Mexico (44M), because these markets are growing. But take Russia - the first one made 117M there! The Exchange Rates are shit now and they will be shit in 2021. Only if the ER are better than they were in 2009, Avatar 2 might have a chance to top 3 Billion.

 

But i dont believe it. Global sensations you cant duplicate. Avatar was a perfect storm. Its sequel will be a storm, but not a perfect one.

It has zero chance at surpassing the first one here in Brazil as well. The first movie is not even in the top 15 when it comes to ADMs, it was benefited by the best ER of decade, but when it comes to popularity, it sold far less tickets than Avengers & FF movies, since these movies are barely touching $40m these days thanks to ER, you can expect a HUGE decrease here as well.