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Weekend Prediction thread 3/29-3/31 Play the Derby

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Updated PR forecast. If I was playing the Derby, this would be my number.

 

Thursday: $2.20M (+5.24%)

REAL FIRST WEEK TOTAL: $47.3M

DOMESTIC TOTAL AFTER FIRST WEEK: $50.9M

 

Friday: $4.26M (+93.6%)

Saturday: $5.64M (+32.4%)

Sunday: $3.41M (-39.5%)

SECOND WEEKEND TOTAL: $13.3M (-63.7% real)

DOMESTIC TOTAL AFTER SECOND WEEKEND: $64.2M

Edited by johnboy3434
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Spoiler

4/7-4/9

  1. The Boss Baby: $31.5 million ($102 million)
  2. Beauty & the Beast: $26.5 million ($436 million)
  3. Going in Style: $16.5 million
  4. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $14.5 million 
  5. Power Rangers: $9 million ($80 million)
  6. The Case for Christ: $8 million 
  7. Ghost in the Shell: $7 million ($32 million) 
  8. Kong - Skull Island: $6.5 million ($159 million) 
  9. Logan: $5 million ($220 million) 
  10. Get Out: $4.5 million ($164 million)

4/14-4/16

  1. The Fate of the Furious: $116 million
  2. The Boss Baby: $19 million ($130 million) 
  3. Beauty & the Beast: $17 million ($461 million) 
  4. Going in Style: $11 million ($33 million)
  5. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $8.5 million ($27 million)
  6. The Case for Christ: $7 million ($19 million) 
  7. Power Rangers: $3.5 million ($86 million)
  8. Get Out: $3 million ($169 million) 
  9. Kong - Skull Island: $3 million ($164 million) 
  10. Spark: $3 million 

4/21-4/23

  1. The Fate of the Furious: $47.5 million ($188 million) 
  2. The Boss Baby: $12 million ($146 million)
  3. Beauty & the Beast: $11 million ($476 million) 
  4. Unforgettable: $9 million 
  5. Going in Style: $8 million ($46 million)
  6. Born in China: $6.5 million 
  7. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $5.5 million ($34 million) 
  8. The Promise: $4.5 million 
  9. The Case for Christ: $2.5 million ($23 million) 
  10. Power Rangers: $2 million ($89 million)

4/28-4/30

  1. The Fate of the Furious: $26 million ($228 million) 
  2. The Circle: $20.5 million 
  3. The Boss Baby: $9 million ($158 million) 
  4. Beauty & the Beast: $8 million ($486 million)
  5. How to Be a Latin Lover: $6.5 million 
  6. Going in Style: $6 million ($55 million)
  7. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $4 million ($39 million) 
  8. Unforgettable: $3 million ($14 million) 
  9. Born in China: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
  10. The Promise: $2 million ($7 million)

5/5-5/7

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $168.5 million 
  2. The Circle: $10 million ($36 million) 
  3. The Fate of the Furious: $9.5 million ($243 million) 
  4. The Boss Baby: $5 million ($164 million) 
  5. Beauty & the Beast: $5 million ($493 million) 
  6. Going in Style: $3.5 million ($60 million) 
  7. How to Be a Latin Lover: $3 million ($11 million)
  8. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $2.5 million ($42 million) 
  9. Born in China: $1.5 million ($12 million) 
  10. Unforgettable: $1 million ($15 million) 

5/12-5/14

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $71.5 million ($277 million)
  2. Snatched: $33.5 million 
  3. King Arthur - Knights of the Roundtable: $14 million 
  4. The Circle: $6.5 million ($46 million) 
  5. The Fate of the Furious: $5.5 million ($252 million) 
  6. Beauty & the Beast: $4 million ($498 million)
  7. The Boss Baby: $3.5 million ($169 million)
  8. Going in Style: $2.5 million ($64 million)
  9. How to Be a Latin Lover: $2 million ($14 million)
  10. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $1.5 million ($44 million)

5/19-5/21

  1. Alien - Covenant: $58.5 million 
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $37 million ($333 million)
  3. Snatched: $20 million ($64 million) 
  4. Everything, Everything: $12 mlilion
  5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid  - The Long Haul: $8 million 
  6. King Arthur - Knights of the Roundtable: $5 million ($22 million) 
  7. The Circle: $3.5 million ($51 million) 
  8. The Fate of the Furious: $2.5 million ($256 million) 
  9. Beauty & the Beast: $2 million ($500 million) 
  10. The Boss Baby: $1.5 million ($171 million) 

5/26-5/29

  1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $62 million/$77 million 
  2. Baywatch: $46 million/$57 million 
  3. Alien - Covenant: $26 million/$33 million ($105 million) 
  4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $23.5 million/$30 million ($374 million)
  5. Snatched: $13.5 million/$16.5 million ($87 million)
  6. Everything, Everything: $7 million/$8.5 million ($24 million)
  7. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $5 million/$6.5 million ($16 million)
  8. King Arthur - Knights of the Roundtable: $2.5 million/$3.25 million ($26 million)
  9. The Circle: $2 million/$2.5 million ($54 million) 
  10. Beauty & the Beast: $1.5 million/$2 million ($502 million) 

 

 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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@mahnamahna,your first week makes no sense. Considering PR ahead of Kong this current week. Don't think it will drop behind it.

 

 

Any ways my predictions for next week..

 

BB 32M
BATB 23M
Smurfs 17M

Going in Style 13M

PR 8.0M
GITS 4.3M

Edited by Momo
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I'm gonna say Case for Christ gets a $9-10K PTA...so my prediction is based on current theater plans...or $10M for the weekend (with estimates of 1000-1200 theaters right now)...perfect timing on a movie that will put people in an Easter spirit without just being a retelling of a Gospel story...original and hopefully not sucky (wish there were reviews for this one)

 

Smurfs gets run over by all the other movies (which is a shame, b/c I actually think answering the "why was Smurfette the only girl" concept could have been very cute)...$16M

 

Going in Style...(I wish there were reviews, too, b/c this will live or die on them)...but as counter programming against all the other movies in the theater and with Case for Christ with less theaters and availability vs this movie...I'll say $16.1M...

 

Edit to add: I'll say Boss Baby wins for 2 weeks in a row next weekend.  

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Why is everyone expecting a good hold for GitS? It doesn't have the reviews, it doesn't have the WOM, GA doesn't give a shit about manga, who wanted to see it already saw it, zero repeat business value. 

Edited by Valonqar
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4 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Why is everyone expecting a good hold for GitS? It doesn't have the reviews, it doesn't have the WOM, GA doesn't give a shit about manga, who wanted to see it already saw it, zero repeat business value. 

 

Yeah changed my prediction because of it. I have it now droping below PR next weekend.

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Smurf 15

Going in Style 12

 

Sony is killing another franchise obviously. I don't get why they have decided to release Smurf 3 a week after BB. Earlier this year they subduely released Underworld on the first week of the year and RE three weeks later which aimed to the same audience and after XXX3. What were they thinking?

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I honestly think Smurfs could have done decently well (high 20's opening) had Sony not screwed up its release date and marketing. Honestly, it should have released on the 21st, which would put some distance between it and Boss Baby, and also would give it 2 full weeks before guardians. 

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11 hours ago, DAJK said:

I honestly think Smurfs could have done decently well (high 20's opening) had Sony not screwed up its release date and marketing. Honestly, it should have released on the 21st, which would put some distance between it and Boss Baby, and also would give it 2 full weeks before guardians. 

 

Agree - the release date was nuts.  I understand wanting traditional Spring Break (the week before Easter) and picking up all those week days...but Easter isn't Christmas and Sony had to see how Dreamworks animated original stuff had been overperforming lately.  They had to have 2-3 weeks between animated movies to give them room to breathe.  They could actually have opened against any major adult-oriented movie and been okay...but they chose this path.

 

It's a shame, b/c if my kids had gotten interested in this, I would have taken them (since I like the "where are the girl Smurfs" concept)...but they are still talking Boss Baby (which I haven't taken them to) b/c the ads were better and more prevalent...and it's still new in their minds...and I'm not gonna shell out to take the kids when they aren't demanding it, when discount ticket codes are fewer this week and their interest is less (I figure this one will hit the cheap theater for me to take them for $2, if I really feel motivated, in May:)...

 

It's a perfect bad storm opening for Smurfs, EXCEPT for having the traditional spring break 9 days to come...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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3 hours ago, YourMother said:

Beast: 28%

Baby: 22.2%

Smurfs: 4.7%

GITS: 4.4%

F8: 4.2%

 

Wrong thread.

Are these pre-sale numbers this week?

 

If so, I have the feeling that Smurf is gonna do The Pirates number (~12 M) and Going in Style has an outside to open north of Smurf! 

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3 minutes ago, RiffRanger said:

1. BatB $31 million

2. BB $29 million

3. Smurfs $18 million

4. Going in Style $9 million

5. PR $7 million

 

This is not happening. That would be incredible to see though. That would be a couple million ahead of the 4th weekend of JURASSIC WORLD!

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