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Weekend Prediction thread 3/29-3/31 Play the Derby

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1 hour ago, JB33 said:

 

This is not happening. That would be incredible to see though. That would be a couple million ahead of the 4th weekend of JURASSIC WORLD!

 

I'm still new here; I want to make a name for myself.  This is going to be a boring weekend and I need to hope for a surprise.  Of course, I could always predict Smurfs and/or Going in Style being surprisingly low.

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13 minutes ago, RiffRanger said:

 

I'm still new here; I want to make a name for myself.  This is going to be a boring weekend and I need to hope for a surprise.  Of course, I could always predict Smurfs and/or Going in Style being surprisingly low.

 

Fair enough. I hope you're right!

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2 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

I think if all three Sony animated films flop, it could spell the end for Sony Pictures Animation,

With it's $60M budget, Smurfs will luckily break even. Emoji seems likely to do $75M-$130M domestic and about $200M-$250M worldwide. The Star, due to being a Christmas movie, I think has a possibility of $150M domestic due to holidays, and even if it flops OS it's outsourced. SPA's future depends on their 2018 slate.

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43 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

My weekend prediction for Power Rangers is $8.27M, or a 41.8% drop.

 

Like I said on Rangerboard, you've been fairly accurate with your predictions but a little bit low, so your number is encouraging.  Especially since I'm thinking it will be lower.

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The Boss Baby - $27.6m

Beauty and the Beast - $24.1m

Smurfs - $15.5m

Ghost in the Shell - $7.8m

Going in Style - $7.5m

Power Rangers - $6.5m

Kong - $5m

Get Out - $3.8m

Logan - $3.7m

The Case for Christ - $3.7m

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18 minutes ago, YourMother said:

With it's $60M budget, Smurfs will luckily break even. Emoji seems likely to do $75M-$130M domestic and about $200M-$250M worldwide. The Star, due to being a Christmas movie, I think has a possibility of $150M domestic due to holidays, and even if it flops OS it's outsourced. SPA's future depends on their 2018 slate.

 

The Star won't hit $150m. It'll be lucky to do $100-110m domestic. 

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5 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

The Star won't hit $150m. It'll be lucky to do $100-110m domestic. 

That's what I'm thinking to tbh, but no one thought Trolls would do $150M domestic, let alone $100M. My prediction for The Star is $26M/$115M. However I think 2018 will determine SPA's future.

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(-47.2%) The Boss Baby - 26.50 - $6,921 avg - 89.59

(-45.0%) Beauty and the Beast - 25.00 - $6,299 avg - 432.13

(NEW) The Smurfs: The Lost Village - 15.00 - $4,155 avg - 15.00

(NEW) Going in Style - 9.00 - $2,940 avg - 9.00

(-61.3%) Ghost in the Shell - 7.22 - $2,099 avg - 31.32

(-51.6%) Power Rangers - 6.87 - $2,307 avg - 75.71

(-34.2%) Kong: Skull Island - 5.65 - $2,052 avg - 156.34

(NEW) The Case for Christ - 4.70 - $4,000 avg - 4.70

(-28.6%) Logan - 4.36 - $2,237 - 218.34

(-23.1%) Get Out - 4.35 - $2,769 - 163.15

 

(-2.0%) The Zookeeper's Wife - 3.22 - $4,000 avg - 7.94

(NEW) Your Name - 3.03 - $10,000 avg - 3.03

(-57.4%) Life - 2.37 - $1,326 avg - 26.91

(-56.1%) CHiPs - 1.74 - $1,288 avg - 17.50

(-33.4%) The Shack - 1.36 - $1,227 avg - 55.20

(NEW) Gifted - 0.45 - $8,000 avg - 0.45

(-60.0%) The Lego Batman Movie - 0.30 - $870 avg - 173.24

(-27.6%) Hidden Figures - 0.30 - $1,042 avg - 168.31

(-33.8%) T2: Trainspotting - 0.25 - $1,592 avg - 1.59

(-62.1%) The Belko Experiment - 0.20 - $1,081 avg - 9.42

(+50.3%) La La Land - 0.20 - $893 avg - 150.72

(+1.0%) Lion - 0.20 - $1,000 avg - 51.41

(-23.7%) Rogue One - 0.19 - $1,073 avg - 531.99

 

(+181%) Before I Fall - 0.10 - $373 avg - 12.17

 

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Spoiler

4/14-4/16

  1. The Fate of the Furious: $120.5 million 
  2. The Boss Baby: $18 million ($119 million) 
  3. Beauty & the Beast: $16.5 million ($459 million) 
  4. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $9.5 million ($29 million)
  5. Going in Style: $9 million ($26 million) 
  6. The Case for Christ: $5.5 million ($13 million)
  7. Kong - Skull Island: $3 million ($161 million) 
  8. Get Out: $3 million ($168 million) 
  9. The Zookeeper's Wife: $3 million ($12 million) 
  10. Ghost in the Shell: $2.5 million ($36 million) 

4/21-4/23

  1. The Fate of the Furious: $49 million ($197 million)
  2. The Boss Baby: $12.5 million ($135 million) 
  3. Beauty & the Beast: $11.5 million ($474 million) 
  4. Unforgettable: $8.5 million 
  5. Going in Style: $7.5 million ($37 million) 
  6. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $6.5 million ($37 million) 
  7. Born in China: $6 million 
  8. The Promise: $5 million 
  9. Free Fire: $3.5 million 
  10. The Case for Christ: $3 million ($17 million) 

4/28-4/30

  1. The Fate of the Furious: $26 million ($237 million)
  2. The Circle: $18.5 million 
  3. The Boss Baby: $9.5 million ($147 million) 
  4. Beauty & the Beast: $8.5 million ($485 million) 
  5. How to Be a Latin Lover: $7 million 
  6. Going in Style: $6 million ($46 million) 
  7. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $4.5 million ($43 million)
  8. Born in China: $3 million ($10 million) 
  9. The Promise: $3 million ($9 million) 
  10. Sleight: $2.5 million 

5/5-5/7

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $168 million 
  2. The Fate of the Furious: $11 million ($254 million) 
  3. The Circle: $9 million ($32 million) 
  4. Beauty & the Beast: $5.5 million ($492 million) 
  5. The Boss Baby: $5 million ($153 million)
  6. How to Be a Latin Lover: $4 million ($13 million) 
  7. Going in Style: $3.5 million ($51 million) 
  8. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $2.5 million ($46 million) 
  9. Born in China: $1.5 million ($12 million) 
  10. The Promise: $1.5 million ($12 million) 

5/12-5/14

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $71.5 million ($277 million)
  2. Snatched: $32 million 
  3. King Arthur - Legend of the Sword: $16.5 million 
  4. The Fate of the Furious: $6.5 million ($264 million) 
  5. The Circle: $6 million ($41 million) 
  6. Beauty & the Beast: $4.5 million ($498 million) 
  7. The Boss Baby: $4 million ($158 million) 
  8. How to Be a Latin Lover: $3 million ($17 million) 
  9. Going in Style: $2.5 million ($55 million) 
  10. Lowriders: $2 milion 

5/19-5/21

  1. Alien - Covenant: $57 million 
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy - Vol. 2: $38 million ($335 million) 
  3. Snatched: $20 million ($63 million) 
  4. Everything, Everything: $13 million 
  5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $8.5 million 
  6. King Arthur - Legend of the Sword: $6.5 million ($27 million) 
  7. The Circle: $3.5 million ($46 million) 
  8. Beauty & the Beast: $2.5 million ($501 million) 
  9. The Boss Baby: $2 million ($160 million) 
  10. How to Be a Latin Lover: $1.5 million ($19 million) 

5/26-5/29

  1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $62 million/$77.5 million 
  2. Baywatch: $46.5 million/$58 million ($70 million) 
  3. Alien - Covenant: $26 million/$32.5 million ($104 million) 
  4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $24 million/$30 million ($378 million) 
  5. Snatched: $13.5 million/$16.5 million ($86 million) 
  6. Everything, Everything: $7.5 million/$9 million ($24 million) 
  7. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $5.5 million/$7 million ($17 million) 
  8. King Arthur - Legend of the Sword: $3 million/$3.5 million ($32 million) 
  9. The Circle: $2 million/$2.5 million ($49 million) 
  10. Beauty & the Beast: $1.5 million/$2 million ($503 million)

6/2-6/4

  1. Wonder Woman: $102 million 
  2. Captain Underpants: $22.5 million 
  3. Baywatch: $22 million ($98 million) 
  4. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $20.5 million ($106 million) 
  5. Alien - Covenant: $11 million ($119 million) 
  6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $9.5 million ($391 million) 
  7. Snatched: $8 million ($96 million) 
  8. Everything, Everything: $4 million ($29 million) 
  9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $3 million ($21 million)
  10. The Circle: $1.5 million ($51 million)

6/9-6/11

  1. The Mummy: $43 million
  2. Wonder Woman: $38.5 million ($167 million) 
  3. Captain Underpants: $15 million ($45 million) 
  4. Baywatch: $12.5 million ($119 million) 
  5. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $11.5 million ($125 million) 
  6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $5.5 million ($400 million) 
  7. Snatched: $5 million ($104 million) 
  8. Alien - Covenant: $5 million ($127 million) 
  9. It Comes At Night: $4 million 
  10. Everything, Everything: $2 million ($32 million) 

6/16-6/18

  1. Cars 3: $76 million 
  2. All Eyez on Me: $23 million 
  3. Wonder Woman: $20.5 million ($204 million) 
  4. The Mummy: $18 million ($76 million) 
  5. Rough Night: $12 million 
  6. Baywatch: $7 million ($131 million) 
  7. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $6.5 million ($137 million)
  8. Captain Underpants: $5.5 mlilion ($54 million) 
  9. Guardians of the Galaxy - Vol. 2: $4 million ($407 million)
  10. Snatched: $3 million ($109 million) 

6/23-6/25

  1. Transformers - The Last Knight: $72 million 
  2. Cars 3: $39.5 million ($151 million) 
  3. All Eyez on Me: $15 million ($51 million) 
  4. Wonder Woman: $9 million ($221 million) 
  5. The Mummy: $8.5 million ($92 million)
  6. Rough Night: $7 million ($25 million)
  7. Baywatch: $4 million ($138 million)
  8. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $3 million ($142 million)
  9. Captain Underpants: $2.5 million ($59 million) 
  10. 47 Meters Down: $2.5 million

6/30-7/2

  1. Despicable Me 3: $111 million 
  2. Transformers - The Last Knight: $31 million ($133 million) 
  3. The House: $24 million 
  4. Cars 3: $17 million ($185 million) 
  5. Baby Driver: $11 million ($17 million) 
  6. All Eyez on Me: $9 million ($67 million)
  7. Wonder Woman: $5 million ($230 million)
  8. The Mummy: $4.5 million ($101 million)
  9. Rough Night: $3.5 million ($32 million) 
  10. Wish Upon: $3 million

7/7-7/9

  1. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $137 million 
  2. Despicable Me 3: $52.5 million ($216 million) 
  3. The House: $12.5 million ($48 million) 
  4. Transformers - The Last Knight: $11.5 million ($155 million)
  5. Cars 3: $8 million ($200 million)
  6. Baby Driver: $5.5 million ($27 million) 
  7. All Eyez on Me: $5 million ($76 million) 
  8. Wonder Woman: $2 million ($234 million) 
  9. Rough Night: $2 million ($36 million) 
  10. The Mummy: $2 million ($105 million) 

7/14-7/16

  1. War for the Planet of the Apes: $73 million 
  2. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $57 million ($252 million)
  3. Despicable Me 3: $24 million ($264 million) 
  4. The House: $7 million ($62 million)
  5. Midnight Sun: $6 million 
  6. Cars 3: $5.5 million ($210 million) 
  7. Transformers - The Last Knight: $5 million ($164 million)
  8. All Eyez on Me: $3.5 million ($82 million) 
  9. Baby Driver: $3 million ($33 million) 
  10. Rough Night: $1.5 million ($39 million)

7/21-7/23

  1. Dunkirk: $54 million 
  2. War for the Planet of the Apes: $34 million ($139 million) 
  3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $30 million ($310 million) 
  4. Girls Trip: $22.5 million 
  5. Despicable Me 3: $12.5 million ($288 million) 
  6. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $8 million 
  7. Cars 3: $3.5 million ($217 million) 
  8. The House: $3 million ($67 million) 
  9. Midnight Sun: $2.5 million ($11 million) 
  10. All Eyez on Me: $2.5 million ($87 million) 

7/28-7/30

  1. The Emoji Movie: $42.5 million
  2. Dunkirk: $35 million ($123 million) 
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $18 million ($174 million) 
  4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $16.5 million ($343 million)
  5. Girls Trip: $13 million ($48 million)
  6. Atomic Blonde: $11.5 million 
  7. Despicable Me 3: $5 million ($298 million)
  8. An Incovenient Sequel: $4 million 
  9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3.5 million ($15 million) 
  10. The House: $2 million ($71 million)

8/4-8/6

  1. The Dark Tower: $53 million 
  2. The Emoji Movie: $26 million ($91 million) 
  3. Dunkirk: $22.5 million ($166 million) 
  4. Girls Trip: $10 million ($66 million) 
  5. War for the Planet of the Apes: $9.5 million ($191 million) 
  6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $8.5 million ($358 million) 
  7. Atomic Blonde: $6 million ($22 million)
  8. Despicable Me 3: $4 million ($305 million) 
  9. An Inconvenient Sequel: $2.5 million ($9 million) 
  10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $2 million ($19 million) 

8/11-8/13

  1. Annabelle - Creation: $33 million 
  2. The Dark Tower: $28 million ($104 million)
  3. The Emoji Movie: $17 million ($119 million) 
  4. Dunkirk: $16 million ($194 million) 
  5. Girls Trip: $7.5 million ($79 million) 
  6. War for the Planet of the Apes: $6.5 million ($201 million) 
  7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $5.5 million ($367 million) 
  8. Atomic Blonde: $4 million ($29 million) 
  9. Despicable Me 3: $3 million ($310 million) 
  10. An Inconvenient Sequel: $1.5 million ($11 million)

8/18-8/20

  1. The Dark Tower: $18 million ($133 million) 
  2. Annabelle - Creation: $15 million ($57 million) 
  3. Dunkirk: $12 million ($213 million) 
  4. Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $11 million 
  5. The Emoji Movie: $8 million ($131 million) 
  6. Girls Trip: $6 million ($88 million) 
  7. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $4.5 million 
  8. War for the Planet of the Apes: $4 million ($207 million) 
  9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3.5 million ($372 million) 
  10. Atomic Blonde: $2.5 million ($33 million)

8/25-8/27

  1. All Saints: $14.5 million
  2. The Dark Tower: $13.5 million ($153 million)
  3. Dunkirk: $9 million ($226 million) 
  4. Annabelle - Creation: $8 million ($69 million) 
  5. Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6 million ($19 million) 
  6. The Emoji Movie: $5.5 million ($138 million) 
  7. Girls Trip: $4.5 million ($95 million) 
  8. Tulip Fever: $4 million
  9. Villa Capri: $3.5 million 
  10. War for the Planet of the Apes: $3 million ($211 million) 
  11. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2.5 million ($376 million) 
  12. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $2 million ($7 million) 

9/1-9/4

  1. All Saints: $11.5 million/$15.5 million ($35 million)
  2. The Dark Tower: $10 million/$12.5 million ($170 million)
  3. Renegades: $8 million/$9.5 million 
  4. Dunkirk: $7.5 million/$9 million ($238 million)
  5. The Emoji Movie: $4.5 million/$6 million ($145 million) 
  6. Annabelle - Creation: $4 million/$4.75 million ($76 million) 
  7. Girls Trip: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($100 million) 
  8. Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($25 million) 
  9. Leap!: $3 million/$4 million ($5 million) 
  10. War for the Planet of the Apes: $2.25 million/$2.75 million ($215 million) 
  11. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2 million/$2.75 million ($380 million) 
  12. Tulip Fever: $2 million/$2.5 million ($7 million) 

9/8-9/10

  1. It: $60.5 million 
  2. Home Again: $8 million 
  3. All Saints: $7 million ($44 million) 
  4. Midnight Sun: $6 million 
  5. The Dark Tower: $5 million ($176 million) 
  6. Dunkirk: $4 million ($243 million)
  7. Renegades: $3 million ($13 million) 
  8. The Emoji Movie: $2.5 million ($148 million)
  9. Girls Trip: $2 million ($102 million) 
  10. Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $2 million ($27 million) 

9/15-9/17

  1. It: $31.5 million ($108 million)
  2. The Solutrean: $17 million
  3. American Assassin: $12.5 million 
  4. All I See is You: $7.5 million 
  5. All Saints: $4.5 million ($50 million)
  6. Home Again: $4.5 million ($15 mililon) 
  7. Midnight Sun: $3.5 million ($11 million)
  8. The Dark Tower: $2.5 million ($180 million) 
  9. Dunkirk: $2.5 million ($247 million)
  10. The Emoji Movie: $1.5 million ($150 million)

9/22-9/24

  1. Ninjago: $40.5 million
  2. Granite Mountain: $21.5 million
  3. It: $19 million ($137 million)
  4. The Solutrean: $8 million ($29 million) 
  5. American Assassin: $5.5 million ($20 million) 
  6. All I See is You: $4 million ($13 million) 
  7. All Saints: $3 million ($54 million) 
  8. Home Again: $3 million ($19 million) 
  9. Friend Request: $2.5 million 
  10. Midnight Sun: $2 million ($14 million) 

9/29-10/1

  1. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $46.5 million 
  2. Ninjago: $25 million ($74 million) 
  3. American Made: $16.5 million 
  4. Flatliners: $14 million 
  5. Granite Mountain: $10.5 million ($38 million)
  6. It: $9 million ($151 million)
  7. The Solutrean: $4 million ($35 million) 
  8. Samson: $3.5 million 
  9. American Assassin: $2.5 million ($24 million)
  10. All I See Is You: $2 million ($16 million)

10/6-10/8

  1. Blade Runner 2049: $52 million 
  2. My Little Pony - The Movie: $27 million 
  3. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $19.5 million ($77 million)
  4. Ninjago: $13.5 million ($91 million)
  5. American Made: $8.5 million ($30 million)
  6. Flatliners: $5 million ($22 million)
  7. Granite Mountain: $5 million ($46 mililon) 
  8. It: $4.5 million ($158 million) 
  9. The Solutrean: $2 million ($38 million) 
  10. Samson: $2 million ($6 million) 
 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
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23 minutes ago, johnboy3434 said:

Based on those weekend estimates, my current projection for Power Rangers' next weekend is $3.72M, which would be a 40.2% drop. I mean, come on, it can't drop 60% every weekend, can it?

It can.

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On 4/3/2017 at 10:02 AM, TwoMisfits said:

I'm gonna say Case for Christ gets a $9-10K PTA...so my prediction is based on current theater plans...or $10M for the weekend (with estimates of 1000-1200 theaters right now)...perfect timing on a movie that will put people in an Easter spirit without just being a retelling of a Gospel story...original and hopefully not sucky (wish there were reviews for this one)

 

Smurfs gets run over by all the other movies (which is a shame, b/c I actually think answering the "why was Smurfette the only girl" concept could have been very cute)...$16M

 

Going in Style...(I wish there were reviews, too, b/c this will live or die on them)...but as counter programming against all the other movies in the theater and with Case for Christ with less theaters and availability vs this movie...I'll say $16.1M...

 

Edit to add: I'll say Boss Baby wins for 2 weeks in a row next weekend.  

 

Bleh on myself - reviews too late for Case for Christ, reviews not good enough for Going in Style, and Smurfs got run over even more than I thought...overshot them all somehow in a week that I didn't shoot that high!  Guess March (and all the BOGO online theaters deals that helped spike some BO) is over!

 

At least I picked Boss Baby's win right...unless tomorrow's actuals make me 0-4 for the weekend...then I'll have to hold onto my picking Smurfs and Going in Style close, if at the wrong numbers:)...

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F8 130M (reviews are solid enough+event+lack of competition+Easter)

BB 16M

BATB 15M

Smurfs 8.5M

GiS 7.5M

GITS 4M

PR 3.5M

Kong 3.5M

Logan 3M

Get Out 3M

 

Top 10 - 194M

 

Easter should deflate some drops

 

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