Automatically embedding has been temporarily turned off until the Twitter bug has been fixed. This will only affect new posts made. Once the issue has been fixed, automatic embedding will return. It is possible to manually embed content I believe. If you quote a post with an embedded tweet, please delete the tweet.

Welcome to The Box Office Theory — Forums

Register now to gain access to all of our features. Once registered and logged in, you will be able to contribute to this site by submitting your own content or replying to existing content. You'll be able to customize your profile, receive reputation points as a reward for submitting content, while also communicating with other members via your own private inbox, plus much more! This message will be removed once you have signed in.

Impact

Weekend Prediction thread (5/5-5/7) | Play the Derby

2,880 posts in this topic

I'm being nice and predict that Unforgettable will debut in the low teens, as a counter programmer option. But nothing will debut nice until May 5th. This summer, could actually successful or not, but I know we should have more films make over $150 million than last year that's for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fate of the Furious: 36.4M

Boss Baby: 8.6M

Beauty and the Beast: 7.7M

Unforgettable: 7.5M

The Promise: 3.4M

Smurfs: 3.1M

Going in Style: 2.8M

Born in China: 2.7M

Free Fire: 2.5M

Gifted: 2.1M

Get Out: 1.6M

Phoenix Forgotten: 1.5M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeh that Unforgettable film seems to have a strong presence on social media and decent trailer views. 

 

Could do $10m, which would be fine. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

tumblr_mvsbdzcLHz1s5656zo1_250.gif

 

the amount of predictions this weekend is receiving

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

F8 - 37M (10M/16.5M/10.5M)

BB - 10.5M

Unforgettable - 9.5M

BATB - 9M

Born in China - 5.5M

Promise - 5M

Smurfs - 4M

Gifted - 3.5M

Goingin Style - 3.5M

Phoenix Forgotten/Get Out - 2.5M

 

Top 10 - 90M

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No online discount codes, no free tickets, no big movies, no excitement...this should be a boring weekend with no real breakouts.

 

For new movies, best prediction I have (since I haven't cared to even watch most of the previews, I admit it) is that none of them break $10M and one of them goes under $1M (b/c you know something is just gonna do terribly).  As for holdovers, nothing breaks high $30Ms (and I wouldn't be shocked if nothing broke $35M - looking at your Fast 8) and...well, I guess there is no "and" b/c there's really nothing that interesting to say:)...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Spoiler

4/28-4/30

  1. The Circle: $20 million
  2. The Fate of the Furious: $19.5 million ($191 million)
  3. The Boss Baby: $10.5 million ($151 million)
  4. How to Be a Latin Lover: $7.5 million
  5. Beauty & the Beast: $7.5 million ($481 million)
  6. Going in Style: $4 million ($38 million)
  7. Born in China: $3 million ($10 million)
  8. Gifted: $3 million ($15 milion)
  9. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $3 million ($36 million)
  10. Unforgettable: $2.5 million ($11 million)

5/5-5/7

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $169.5 million
  2. The Circle: $10.5 million ($36 million)
  3. The Fate of the Furious: $9 million ($205 million)
  4. The Boss Baby: $5.5 million ($158 million)
  5. Beauty & the Beast: $5 million ($487 million)
  6. How to Be a Latin Lover: $4 million ($13 million)
  7. Born in China: $2 million ($13 million)
  8. Smurfs - The Lost Village: $1.5 million ($38 million)
  9. Going in Style: $1.5 million ($36 million)
  10. Gifted: $1.5 million ($17 million)

5/12-5/14

  1. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $73 million ($281 million)
  2. Snatched: $32 million
  3. King Arthur - Knights of the Roundtable: $17.5 million
  4. The Circle: $7 million ($47 million)
  5. The Fate of the Furious: $5.5 million ($213 million)
  6. The Boss Baby: $4.5 million ($157 million)
  7. Beauty & the Beast: $4 million ($492 million)
  8. How to Be a Latin Lover: $3.5 million ($18 million)
  9. Lowriders: $2 million
  10. Gifted: $1 million ($18 million)

5/19-5/21

  1. Alien - Covenant: $48.5 million
  2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $38.5 million ($340 million)
  3. Snatched: $20 million ($63 million)
  4. Everything, Everything: $14 million
  5. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $8.5 million
  6. King Arthur - Knights of the Roundtable: $8 million ($30 million)
  7. The Circle: $4 million ($53 million)
  8. The Fate of the Furious: $3 million ($217 million)
  9. The Boss Baby: $2.5 million ($160 million)
  10. Beauty & the Beast: $2 million ($494 million)

5/26-5/29

  1. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $66 million/$82 million
  2. Baywatch: $42 million/$52.5 million ($64 million)
  3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $24.5 million/$31.5 million ($385 million)
  4. Alien - Covenant: $22 million/$27 million ($88 million)
  5. Snatched: $12.5 million/$15.5 million ($85 million)
  6. Everything, Everything: $8.5 million/$10.5 million ($29 million)
  7. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $5.5 million/$7 million ($17 million)
  8. King Arthur - Knights of the Roundtable: $4.5 million/$5.5 million ($38 million)
  9. The Circle: $3 million/$3.5 million ($58 million)
  10. The Boss Baby: $1.5 million/$2 million ($162 million)

6/2-6/4

  1. Wonder Woman: $89 million 
  2. Captain Underpants: $28.5 million 
  3. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $23.5 million ($116 million)
  4. Baywatch: $19 million ($94 million) 
  5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $10.5 million ($400 million)
  6. Alien - Covenant: $9 million ($101 million)
  7. Snatched: $7.5 million ($96 million)
  8. Everything, Everything: $4 million ($35 million)
  9. Diary of a Wimpy Kid - The Long Haul: $2.5 million ($20 million) 
  10. The Circle: $2 million ($61 million) 

6/9-6/11

  1. The Mummy: $44.5 million 
  2. Wonder Woman: $34.5 million ($160 million) 
  3. Captain Underpants: $17.5 million ($57 million) 
  4. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $12 million ($137 million)
  5. Baywatch: $10.5 million ($112 million)
  6. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $6 million ($410 million)
  7. Snatched: $5 million ($105 million) 
  8. It Comes At Night: $4.5 million 
  9. Alien - Covenant: $4 million ($108 million) 
  10. Everything, Everything: $2.5 million ($39 million)

6/16-6/18

  1. Cars 3: $71 million 
  2. All Eyez on Me: $34 million 
  3. The Mummy: $20 million ($81 million) 
  4. Wonder Woman: $17 million ($190 million) 
  5. Rough Night: $14 million 
  6. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $8.5 million ($151 million) 
  7. Captain Underpants: $8 million ($71 million) 
  8. Baywatch: $6.5 million ($123 million) 
  9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $4 million ($417 million) 
  10. Snatched: $2.5 million ($109 million) 

6/23-6/25

  1. Transformers - The Last Knight: $57 million
  2. Cars 3: $36 million ($141 million)
  3. All Eyez on Me: $15 million ($63 million)
  4. The Mummy: $10 million ($100 million)
  5. Wonder Woman: $9 million ($207 million)
  6. Rough Night: $8 million ($30 million)
  7. Captain Underpants: $4.5 million ($78 million)
  8. Pirates of the Caribbean - Dead Men Tell No Tales: $4 million ($159 million)
  9. Baywatch: $3 million ($129 million)
  10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2: $2 million ($421 million)

6/30-7/2

  1. Despicable Me 3: $110.5 million
  2. Transformers - The Last Knight: $25 million ($106 million)
  3. The House: $22 million
  4. Cars 3: $17 million ($175 million)
  5. All Eyez on Me: $8 million ($78 million)
  6. Baby Driver: $7 million ($15 million)
  7. The Mummy: $5.5 million ($110 million)
  8. Wonder Woman: $5 million ($216 million)
  9. Rough Night: $4.5 million ($39 million)
  10. Wish Upon: $3.5 million

7/7-7/9

  1. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $131 million
  2. Despicable Me 3: $52 million ($215 million)
  3. The House: $11 million ($43 million)
  4. Transformers - The Last Knight: $10.5 million ($126 million)
  5. Cars 3: $9 million ($192 million)
  6. All Eyez on Me: $3.5 million ($85 million)
  7. Baby Driver: $3 million ($21 million)
  8. The Mummy: $2.5 million ($115 million)
  9. Rough Night: $2.5 million ($44 million)
  10. Wonder Woman: $2 million ($220 million)

7/14-7/16

  1. War for the Planet of the Apes: $78.5 million
  2. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $55 million ($240 million)
  3. Despicable Me 3: $24 million ($261 million)
  4. The House: $6.5 million ($55 million)
  5. Cars 3: $5 million ($201 million)
  6. Transformers - The Last Knight: $4 million ($134 million)
  7. All Eyez on Me: $2 million ($89 million)
  8. Baby Driver: $2 million ($25 million)
  9. Rough Night: $1.5 million ($47 million)
  10. Wonder Woman: $1 million ($222 million)

7/21-7/23

  1. Dunkirk: $53 million
  2. War for the Planet of the Apes: $36 million ($149 million)
  3. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $26 million ($292 million)
  4. Girls Trip: $22 million
  5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $16 million
  6. Despicable Me 3: $12 million ($294 million)
  7. Cars 3: $3 million ($207 million)
  8. The House: $2.5 million ($60 million)
  9. Baby Driver: $1 million ($27 million)
  10. All Eyez on Me: $1 million ($91 million)

7/28-7/30

  1. The Emoji Movie: $42.5 million
  2. Dunkirk: $36.5 million ($125 million)
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $20 million ($188 million)
  4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $14 million ($319 million)
  5. Girls Trip: $13 million ($48 million)
  6. Atomic Blonde: $12 million
  7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $8 million ($32 million)
  8. Despicable Me 3: $4 million ($302 million)
  9. An Inconvenient Sequel: $3 million
  10. Cars 3: $1.5 million ($210 million)

8/4-8/6

  1. The Dark Tower: $52 million
  2. The Emoji Movie: $26 million ($92 million)
  3. Dunkirk: $24 million ($182 million)
  4. Detroit: $14.5 million
  5. Girls Trip: $9 million ($65 million)
  6. War for the Planet of the Apes: $8.5 million ($204 million)
  7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $6.5 million ($332 million)
  8. Atomic Blonde: $6 million ($24 million)
  9. Midnight Sun: $4.5 million
  10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3.5 million ($39 million)

8/11-8/13

  1. Annabelle - Creation: $30.5 million
  2. The Dark Tower: $28 million ($104 million)
  3. The Emoji Movie: $17 million ($121 million)
  4. Dunkirk: $16 million ($209 million)
  5. Detroit: $9 million ($29 million)
  6. Girls Trip: $7.5 million ($78 million)
  7. War for the Planet of the Apes: $5 million ($212 million)
  8. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4 million ($339 million)
  9. Atomic Blonde: $3.5 million ($30 million)
  10. Midnight Sun: $2 million ($8 million)

8/18-8/20

  1. The Dark Tower: $17.5 million ($132 million)
  2. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $14 million
  3. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $11.5 million
  4. Dunkirk: $10.5 million ($225 million)
  5. The Emoji Movie: $9.5 million ($134 million)
  6. Girls Trip: $6 million ($87 million)
  7. Detroit: $5 million ($37 million)
  8. War for the Planet of the Apes: $3.5 million ($217 million)
  9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($344 million)
  10. Atomic Blonde: $2 million ($33 million)

8/25-8/27

  1. All Saints: $15 million
  2. The Dark Tower: $11 million ($148 million)
  3. Dunkirk: $7.5 million ($236 million)
  4. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $7 million ($24 million)
  5. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($20 million)
  6. The Emoji Movie: $6 million ($142 million)
  7. Girls Trip: $4 million ($93 million)
  8. Villa Capri: $4 million
  9. Tulip Fever: $3 million
  10. Polaroid: $3 million

9/1-9/4

  1. All Saints: $13 million/$17.5 million ($37 million)
  2. The Dark Tower: $8.5 million/$11 million ($163 million)
  3. Renegades: $8 million/$10 million
  4. Dunkirk: $7 million/$8.5 million ($248 million)
  5. The Emoji Movie: $4.5 million/$6 million ($149 million)
  6. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $4 million/$5 million ($31 million)
  7. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $3.5 million/$4.75 million ($26 million)
  8. Girls Trip: $3 million/$3.75 million ($98 million)
  9. Leap!: $3 million/$4 million ($5 million)
  10. Villa Capri: $2 million/$2.5 million ($7 million)

9/8-9/10

  1. It: $60.5 million
  2. All Saints: $8 million ($47 million)
  3. Home Again: $7 million
  4. The Dark Tower: $4 million ($168 million)
  5. Dunkirk: $3.5 million ($252 million)
  6. Renegades: $3 million ($13 million)
  7. The Emoji Movie: $2.5 million ($152 million)
  8. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $1.5 million ($33 million)
  9. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $1.5 million ($28 million)
  10. Leap!: $1.5 million ($7 million)

9/15-9/17

  1. It: $28 million ($103 million)
  2. The Solutrean: $17 million
  3. American Assassin: $9 million
  4. All I See Is You: $6 million
  5. All Saints: $4.5 million ($54 million)
  6. Home Again: $4 million ($13 million)
  7. Dunkirk: $2 million ($255 million)
  8. The Dark Tower: $2 million ($171 million)
  9. The Emoji Movie: $1.5 million ($154 million)
  10. Renegades: $1.5 million ($15 million)

9/22-9/24

  1. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $45 million
  2. Ninjago: $37.5 million
  3. It: $15.5 million ($126 million)
  4. The Solutrean: $8 million ($29 million)
  5. American Assassin: $3.5 million ($14 million)
  6. All I See Is You: $3 million ($10 million)
  7. All Saints: $2.5 million ($58 million)
  8. Home Again: $2.5 million ($17 million)
  9. Friend Request: $2 million
  10. Dunkirk: $1.5 million ($257 million)

9/29-10/1

  1. Ninjago: $22 million ($66 million)
  2. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $20 million ($76 million)
  3. American Made: $17 million
  4. Flatliners: $12 million
  5. It: $6.5 million ($136 million)
  6. Samson: $5.5 million
  7. The Solutrean: $4 million ($36 million)
  8. American Assassin: $1.5 million ($16 million)
  9. All I See Is You: $1.5 million ($12 million)
  10. Home Again: $1.5 million ($19 million)

10/6-10/8

  1. Blade Runner 2049: $50.5 million
  2. My Little Pony - The Movie: $25 million
  3. Ninjago: $13.5 million ($84 million)
  4. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $8 million ($89 million)
  5. American Made: $7.5 million ($29 million)
  6. Flatliners: $4 million ($19 million)
  7. It: $3.5 million ($141 million)
  8. Samson: $3 million ($10 million)
  9. The Solutrean: $2 million ($39 million)
  10. Home Again: $1 million ($20 million)

10/13-10/15

  1. Blade Runner 2049: $26 million ($92 million)
  2. My Little Pony - The Movie: $15 million ($48 million)
  3. Mother: $14.5 million
  4. The Snowman: $12 million
  5. Ninjago: $8.5 million
  6. Marshall: $8 million
  7. The Foreigner: $6.5 million
  8. Kingsman - The Golden Circle: $4 million ($96 million)
  9. American Made: $3.5 million ($35 million)
  10. Samson: $2 million ($13 million)

10/20-10/22

  1.  
 

 

Edited by mahnamahna
1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My weekly exercise in optimism is due: Power Rangers at $1.72M, or 38.9% drop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Next weekend:

 

The Circle- $14M

How to Be a Latin Lover- $6M

Sleight- I don't even know what this is, so, close to zilch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

4 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Next weekend:

 

The Circle- $14M

How to Be a Latin Lover- $6M

Sleight- I don't even know what this is, so, close to zilch

Latin Lover is only in 1k theaters.

 

Sleight is a new Blumhouse joint. It has solid reviews and BOP is saying it'll be in 1,600+ theaters, so it should do better than Belko

Edited by WrathOfHan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, WrathOfHan said:

Latin Lover is only in 1k theaters.

It's aiming primarily at Latin markets (like Miami) so it'll probably make decent sized business in those areas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

After this drought-Groot is finally coming back in just under 2 weeks!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)

Fate of the Furious: 19.4M

The Circle: 11M

The Boss Baby: 10.2M

Beauty and the Beast: 7M

Going in Style: 3.8M

Gifted: 3.6M

Sleight: 3.5M

The Lost City of Z: 3.3M

Smurfs The Lost Village: 3.2M

Born in China: 3M

The Promise: 2.7M

How to Be a Latin Lover: 2.5M

Unforgettable: 2.2M

Edited by WrathOfHan
1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The Circle:$10 million, Sleight:$3.8 million, Latin Lover:$1 million.

may 5th: Guardians 2:$165 million.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Power Rangers is still in wide release next weekend, my prediction is $640k, or a 53.6% drop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Won't be surprised with a tiny tiny drop for Promise next weekend. Nothing opening combined with that crazy 95% audience RT score makes me think it'll drop like 10-20% this weekend

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, DAJK said:

Won't be surprised with a tiny tiny drop for Promise next weekend. Nothing opening combined with that crazy 95% audience RT score makes me think it'll drop like 10-20% this weekend

It depends how many midsize theaters have it share a screen with something else. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, DAJK said:

Won't be surprised with a tiny tiny drop for Promise next weekend. Nothing opening combined with that crazy 95% audience RT score makes me think it'll drop like 10-20% this weekend

 

Looking at the imdb rating for The Promise, I am not sure about RT audience score being reliable

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Looking at the imdb rating for The Promise, I am not sure about RT audience score being reliable

 

I would trust the RT score over the IMDB score It has over 62k one-star ratings and 72k 5-star ratings on IMDB, which is fishy to say the least. Although the same thing probably happened for the RT score.

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No matter how depressed the last two weekends have been. April 2017 will likely finish as the biggest April ever.

It's already at 678M with a whole week to reach 792M.

 

F8 - 22.5M

Circle - 12.5M

BB - 9M

BatB - 7.5M

Sleight -4.5M

GiS - 3.5M

Smurfs - 3.5M

Born in China - 3M

Gifted - 3M

How to be a Latin Lover - 3M

 

Top 10 - 72M

 

750M without week dailies and the rest of weekend movies

 

1 person likes this

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Who's Chatting

    There are no users currently in the chat room