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Weekend Prediction thread (7/28-7/30) | Play the Derby

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filmlover    25,145
Just now, Jonwo said:

 

Girls Trip should do great domestic but I suspect it'll do okay business OS simply because African American comedies don't really do that well. Baywatch while a flop domestic has done okay OS due to the brand being well known especially in Germany and the UK. 

Kind of a "no shit Sherlock" there considering that's the only part of the world where David Hasselhoff is considered an A-lister. :lol:

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Cochofles    9,190

 

"These characters are too stereotypical for the film to break out" has always seemed to me like code for "the film is 'too black' for mainstream America." 

Let's not pretend that we don't live in a world in which comedies with so-called stereotypical white people are constantly released and never deemed 'too stereotypical to have wide appeal.' There is always that double standard: stereotypically "white" comedies' potential to be huge hits is never analyzed using "the characters might be too stereotypical to be a huge hit." People of color on the other hand...

Thing is that there is enough black people in the US to make this film a smash if not a single white person went to see it (scared away by "stereotypical" black people). 

That being said, if a comedy is truly perceived as funny by a lot of people, regardless of their color, the audience will most likely embrace the film.

You don't get any more "stereotypical" than My Big Fat Greek Wedding, and we all know how that turned out.

Not saying that this is gonna do a MBFGW, obviously, but I would not worry about Girls Trip 's characters scaring non-blacks away.

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Xillix    133

So for at least a month now Cinemark has been cross-promoting Valerian with its member loyalty program, showing ads for the the program with clips from the film in front of every screening of every movie. My local Cinemark just posted their weekend showtimes and they're only giving Valerian four shows a day. Judging by the spacing of the times they're all in the same auditorium, meaning they're giving it one out of fifteen auditoriums. Though to be fair Girls Trip is also getting four showtimes with one auditorium, but that's not a $100m+ would-be-blockbuster that the chain has an ad partnership with. Dunkirk has nine showtimes in two auditoriums (one of which is the XD room). 

 

At my next-closest multiplex, also a Cinemark but in a more urban area, Valerian still only has four shows in a single theatre while Girls Trip is getting eight shows from two auditoriums.

Edited by Xillix

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BenedictL11    365
6 hours ago, cmbbox2390 said:

Dunkirk - With all great reviews it is getting and Nolan, it should cross at least $40 million. I can't wait to see the movie.

 

Girls Trip - This is definitely a wildcard. I'll guess $25 million. And to people who say this is a movie "targeting African Americans". Are you saying this movie is only for black people? Why wouldn't the studio want to reach as why an audience as possible. It just doesn't make sense to me.

 

In Valerian's case, I'm starting to think they should have promoted Rihanna's role a lot more. I think it would've done way more than what it is projected opening weekend. I'm going with $28 million.

Are you serious? Why that high for Valerian?

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filmlover    25,145
9 hours ago, Xillix said:

So for at least a month now Cinemark has been cross-promoting Valerian with its member loyalty program, showing ads for the the program with clips from the film in front of every screening of every movie. My local Cinemark just posted their weekend showtimes and they're only giving Valerian four shows a day. Judging by the spacing of the times they're all in the same auditorium, meaning they're giving it one out of fifteen auditoriums. Though to be fair Girls Trip is also getting four showtimes with one auditorium, but that's not a $100m+ would-be-blockbuster that the chain has an ad partnership with. Dunkirk has nine showtimes in two auditoriums (one of which is the XD room). 

 

At my next-closest multiplex, also a Cinemark but in a more urban area, Valerian still only has four shows in a single theatre while Girls Trip is getting eight shows from two auditoriums.

My theater is also a Cinemark that has had Valerian ads running before movies for the last 2+ months now and they're not booking either screen in any of the largest auditoriums. If that doesn't tell you what its prospects are, I don't know what does.

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Mike Hunt    49

21st - 23rd July 2017

 

1. Dunkirk $45

2. War for the Planet of the Apes $28.5/$100

3. Spider-Man: Homecoming $22.6/$245

4. Girls Trip $20

5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $17.5 

6. Despicable Me 3 $10.1/$205

7. Baby Driver $5.5/$81

8. The Big Sick $5/$23

9. Wonder Woman $4.5/$388

10. Wish Upon $2.8/$10

 

Spoiler

28th - 30th July 2017

 

1. The Emoji Movie $30

2. Atomic Blonde $28.5

3. Dunkirk $25/$85

4. War for the Planet of the Apes $16/$125

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming $12/$264

6. Girls Trip $10/$37

7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $8/$30

8. Despicable Me 3 $6/$215

9. Baby Driver $4/$87

10. The Big Sick $3.5/$28.5

 

4th - 6th August 2017

 

1. The Dark Tower $30

2. The Emoji Movie $15/$53

3. Atomic Blonde $14/$50

4. Dunkirk $13.5/$105

5. Detroit $12.5

6. War for the Planet of the Apes $10/$142

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming $7/$275

8. Girls Trip $5.5/$46

9. Kidnap $5

10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $4/$36

 

11th - 13th August 2017

 

1. Annabelle Creation $37.5

2. The Dark Tower $16/$55

3. The Nut Job: Nutty By Nature $10

4. The Emoji Movie $9/$66.5

5. Atomic Blonde $8.5/$63.5

6. Dunkirk $8/$118

7. Detroit $7/$25

8. War for the Planet of the Apes $6/$152

9. The Glass Castle $5

10. Spider-Man: Homecoming $4/$282

 

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the beast    50

Next Weekend:

 

1. The Emoji Movie: $40M

2. Dunkirk: $38.5M / $128.5M

3. Girls Trip: $23.5M / $71.5M

4. Atomic Blonde: $23M

5. Apes 3: $14M / $130M

6. SMH: $12.5M / $270M

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dudalb    1,097

I think the expectation was always that Valerian would make it's money overseas; I expect a 2o to 25 Million US opening for it.

 

Edited by dudalb

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Blankments    25,427
  1. Dunkirk - 46.4M
  2. Girls Trip - 33.7M
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes - 27.0M
  4. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 16.8M
  5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets - 14.8M
  6. Despicable Me 3 - 14.1M
  7. Baby Driver - 5.4M
  8. Wonder Woman - 4.7M
  9. The Big Sick - 3.3M
  10. Cars 3 - 2.2M
  11. Wish Upon - 2.0M
  12. Transformers: The Last Knight - 1.1M
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mahnamahna    2,283
Spoiler

7/21-7/23

  1. Dunkirk: $57 million 
  2. Girls Trip: $28 million 
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $24 million ($104 million) 
  4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $23 million ($254 million) 
  5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $16 million 
  6. Despicable Me 3: $12.5 million ($214 million) 
  7. The Big Sick: $6 million ($28 million) 
  8. Baby Driver: $5.5 million ($84 million) 
  9. Wonder Woman: $5 million ($390 million) 
  10. Cars 3: $2 million ($144 million) 

7/28-7/30

  1. Dunkirk: $37.5 million ($129 million) 
  2. The Emoji Movie: $36.5 million 
  3. Girls Trip: $21 million ($69 million) 
  4. Atomic Blonde: $20.5 million 
  5. War for the Planet of the Apes: $14 million ($132 million) 
  6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $13.5 million ($282 million) 
  7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $7 million ($31 million)
  8. Despicable Me 3: $5.5 million ($226 million) 
  9. The Big Sick: $4.5 million ($37 million) 
  10. Wonder Woman: $4 million ($398 million) 

8/4-8/6

  1. The Dark Tower: $39 million 
  2. Dunkirk: $26 million ($178 million) 
  3. The Emoji Movie: $21 million ($75 million) 
  4. Girls Trip: $14.5 million ($96 million) 
  5. Atomic Blonde: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
  6. Detroit: $10 million 
  7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $8 million ($297 million) 
  8. War for the Planet of the Apes: $6.5 million ($146 million) 
  9. Despicable Me 3: $4 million ($234 million) 
  10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3.5 million ($38 million) 

8/11-8/13

  1. Annabelle - Creation: $31 million 
  2. The Dark Tower: $21 million ($76 million) 
  3. Dunkirk: $17 million ($209 million) 
  4. The Emoji Movie: $12 million ($95 million) 
  5. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $10.5 million 
  6. Girls Trip: $9 million ($112 million)  
  7. Atomic Blonde: $5 million ($49 million) 
  8. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4.5 million ($305 million) 
  9. Detroit: $4 million ($17 million) 
  10. The Glass Castle: $3.5 million 

8/18-8/20

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $34 million 
  2. The Dark Tower: $12.5 million ($97 million) 
  3. Annabelle - Creation: $12 million ($51 million) 
  4. Dunkirk: $11 million ($227 million) 
  5. The Emoji Movie: $8 million ($106 million) 
  6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
  7. Girls Trip: $5.5 million ($121 million) 
  8. Logan Lucky: $5 million 
  9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($310 million) 
  10. The Glass Castle: $2.5 million ($7 million) 

8/25-8/27

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $23.5 million ($70 million) 
  2. All Saints: $16.5 million 
  3. Dunkirk: $8.5 million ($240 million) 
  4. The Dark Tower: $8 million ($109 million) 
  5. The Emoji Movie: $6 million ($114 million) 
  6. Annabelle - Creation: $5.5 million ($60 million) 
  7. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4.5 million ($26 million)
  8. Girls Trip: $4 million ($127 million) 
  9. Polaroid: $3.5 million 
  10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2 million ($313 million) 

9/1-9/4

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $16.5 million/$22 million ($100 million) 
  2. All Saints: $16 million/$21.5 million ($45 million) 
  3. Dunkirk: $8 million/$10 million ($254 million) 
  4. The Emoji Movie: $6.5 million/$8.5 million ($124 million) 
  5. Renegades: $6 million/$7 million 
  6. The Dark Tower: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($118 million) 
  7. Leap!: $4 million/$5.5 million ($7 million) 
  8. Girls Trip: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($133 million) 
  9. Annabelle - Creation: $3 million/$3.75 million ($65 million) 
  10. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $2.5 million/$3.5 million  ($30 million) 

 

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WrathOfHan    27,238
1 hour ago, mahnamahna said:
  Hide contents

7/21-7/23

  1. Dunkirk: $57 million 
  2. Girls Trip: $28 million 
  3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $24 million ($104 million) 
  4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $23 million ($254 million) 
  5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $16 million 
  6. Despicable Me 3: $12.5 million ($214 million) 
  7. The Big Sick: $6 million ($28 million) 
  8. Baby Driver: $5.5 million ($84 million) 
  9. Wonder Woman: $5 million ($390 million) 
  10. Cars 3: $2 million ($144 million) 

7/28-7/30

  1. Dunkirk: $37.5 million ($129 million) 
  2. The Emoji Movie: $36.5 million 
  3. Girls Trip: $21 million ($69 million) 
  4. Atomic Blonde: $20.5 million 
  5. War for the Planet of the Apes: $14 million ($132 million) 
  6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $13.5 million ($282 million) 
  7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $7 million ($31 million)
  8. Despicable Me 3: $5.5 million ($226 million) 
  9. The Big Sick: $4.5 million ($37 million) 
  10. Wonder Woman: $4 million ($398 million) 

8/4-8/6

  1. The Dark Tower: $39 million 
  2. Dunkirk: $26 million ($178 million) 
  3. The Emoji Movie: $21 million ($75 million) 
  4. Girls Trip: $14.5 million ($96 million) 
  5. Atomic Blonde: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
  6. Detroit: $10 million 
  7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $8 million ($297 million) 
  8. War for the Planet of the Apes: $6.5 million ($146 million) 
  9. Despicable Me 3: $4 million ($234 million) 
  10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3.5 million ($38 million) 

8/11-8/13

  1. Annabelle - Creation: $31 million 
  2. The Dark Tower: $21 million ($76 million) 
  3. Dunkirk: $17 million ($209 million) 
  4. The Emoji Movie: $12 million ($95 million) 
  5. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $10.5 million 
  6. Girls Trip: $9 million ($112 million)  
  7. Atomic Blonde: $5 million ($49 million) 
  8. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4.5 million ($305 million) 
  9. Detroit: $4 million ($17 million) 
  10. The Glass Castle: $3.5 million 

8/18-8/20

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $34 million 
  2. The Dark Tower: $12.5 million ($97 million) 
  3. Annabelle - Creation: $12 million ($51 million) 
  4. Dunkirk: $11 million ($227 million) 
  5. The Emoji Movie: $8 million ($106 million) 
  6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
  7. Girls Trip: $5.5 million ($121 million) 
  8. Logan Lucky: $5 million 
  9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($310 million) 
  10. The Glass Castle: $2.5 million ($7 million) 

8/25-8/27

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $23.5 million ($70 million) 
  2. All Saints: $16.5 million 
  3. Dunkirk: $8.5 million ($240 million) 
  4. The Dark Tower: $8 million ($109 million) 
  5. The Emoji Movie: $6 million ($114 million) 
  6. Annabelle - Creation: $5.5 million ($60 million) 
  7. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4.5 million ($26 million)
  8. Girls Trip: $4 million ($127 million) 
  9. Polaroid: $3.5 million 
  10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2 million ($313 million) 

9/1-9/4

  1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $16.5 million/$22 million ($100 million) 
  2. All Saints: $16 million/$21.5 million ($45 million) 
  3. Dunkirk: $8 million/$10 million ($254 million) 
  4. The Emoji Movie: $6.5 million/$8.5 million ($124 million) 
  5. Renegades: $6 million/$7 million 
  6. The Dark Tower: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($118 million) 
  7. Leap!: $4 million/$5.5 million ($7 million) 
  8. Girls Trip: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($133 million) 
  9. Annabelle - Creation: $3 million/$3.75 million ($65 million) 
  10. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $2.5 million/$3.5 million  ($30 million) 

 

Why are you expecting so much for Dark Tower and so little for Logan Lucky? :lol: 

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mahnamahna    2,283
2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Why are you expecting so much for Dark Tower and so little for Logan Lucky? :lol: 

I'm steadily adjusting Dark Tower down, so I may go as low as $23 million OW, depending on how Dunkirk does the next two weekends. Based on the reviews for both, I'm starting to think Dunkirk and Girls Trip will be the two films drawing in adult audiences over the next 7 weeks. Dark Tower looks pretty bad, so I could definitely see it bombing hard if Dunkirk gets phenomenal WOM after a $55-70 million OW

 

Logan Lucky just seems like a minor release to me. I think anything over $20 million DOM would be decent for it. It doesn't help that Hitman's Bodyguard seems to be in position to perform like the first Kingsman, either. 

 

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TwoMisfits    1,008
8 hours ago, a2knet said:

HSX OW Trading atm:

 

48.9 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/DUNKR.OW

24.2 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/GIRLT.OW

21.2 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/VALER.OW

 

Imo, 

D will be 42-47

GT will be 28-33

V will be 17-22

Having played that game to the top .5% before I quit, I can say HSX pricing isn't all that reliable for predicting OWs (or legs:)...especially for female or minority drawing properties...

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Blankments    25,427
On 7/14/2017 at 11:30 PM, Blankments said:

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 are gone. Drive-in is still Despicable Me 3 and Spider-Man: Homecoming.

47 Meters Down and The Book of Henry are gone. Drive-in is Spider-Man: Homecoming and War for the Planet of the Apes.

 

Dunkirk - 20/6 (2D/IMAX) total 26 (debut)

Spider-Man: Homecoming - 19/4/1 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D) total 24 (down 18)

War for the Planet of the Apes - 18/5 (2D/3D) total 23 (down 3)

Girls Trip - 20 (debut)

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets - 14/6 (2D/3D) total 20 (debut)

Wish Upon - 17 (no change)
Baby Driver - 15 (down 1)
The Big Sick - 15 (down 1)
Despicable Me 3 - 15 (down 10)

Wonder Woman - 10 (down 2)

Cars 3 - 7 (down 6)
Transformers: The Last Knight - 7 (down 3)

Beatriz at Dinner - 3 (no change)

The House - 2 (down 9)

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WrathOfHan    27,238

Dunkirk: 31M

The Emoji Movie: 25M

Girls Trip: 18.2M

Atomic Blonde: 15M

Spider-Man Homecoming: 11M

Planet of the Apes: 9.2M

Valerian: 8.8M

Despicable Me 3: 6.4M

Baby Driver: 4M

The Big Sick: 3.5M

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