Weekend Prediction thread 4/19-4/21 Play the Derby

[a2k]

HSX OW Trading atm:

 

48.9 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/DUNKR.OW

24.2 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/GIRLT.OW

21.2 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/VALER.OW

 

Imo, 

D will be 42-47

GT will be 28-33

V will be 17-22

Edited July 20, 2017 by a2knet

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, mahnamahna said:

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7/21-7/23

1. Dunkirk: $57 million 
2. Girls Trip: $28 million 
3. War for the Planet of the Apes: $24 million ($104 million) 
4. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $23 million ($254 million) 
5. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $16 million 
6. Despicable Me 3: $12.5 million ($214 million) 
7. The Big Sick: $6 million ($28 million) 
8. Baby Driver: $5.5 million ($84 million) 
9. Wonder Woman: $5 million ($390 million) 
10. Cars 3: $2 million ($144 million) 

7/28-7/30

1. Dunkirk: $37.5 million ($129 million) 
2. The Emoji Movie: $36.5 million 
3. Girls Trip: $21 million ($69 million) 
4. Atomic Blonde: $20.5 million 
5. War for the Planet of the Apes: $14 million ($132 million) 
6. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $13.5 million ($282 million) 
7. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $7 million ($31 million)
8. Despicable Me 3: $5.5 million ($226 million) 
9. The Big Sick: $4.5 million ($37 million) 
10. Wonder Woman: $4 million ($398 million) 

8/4-8/6

1. The Dark Tower: $39 million 
2. Dunkirk: $26 million ($178 million) 
3. The Emoji Movie: $21 million ($75 million) 
4. Girls Trip: $14.5 million ($96 million) 
5. Atomic Blonde: $10.5 million ($40 million) 
6. Detroit: $10 million 
7. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $8 million ($297 million) 
8. War for the Planet of the Apes: $6.5 million ($146 million) 
9. Despicable Me 3: $4 million ($234 million) 
10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets: $3.5 million ($38 million) 

8/11-8/13

1. Annabelle - Creation: $31 million 
2. The Dark Tower: $21 million ($76 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $17 million ($209 million) 
4. The Emoji Movie: $12 million ($95 million) 
5. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $10.5 million 
6. Girls Trip: $9 million ($112 million)  
7. Atomic Blonde: $5 million ($49 million) 
8. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $4.5 million ($305 million) 
9. Detroit: $4 million ($17 million) 
10. The Glass Castle: $3.5 million 

8/18-8/20

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $34 million 
2. The Dark Tower: $12.5 million ($97 million) 
3. Annabelle - Creation: $12 million ($51 million) 
4. Dunkirk: $11 million ($227 million) 
5. The Emoji Movie: $8 million ($106 million) 
6. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
7. Girls Trip: $5.5 million ($121 million) 
8. Logan Lucky: $5 million 
9. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $3 million ($310 million) 
10. The Glass Castle: $2.5 million ($7 million) 

8/25-8/27

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $23.5 million ($70 million) 
2. All Saints: $16.5 million 
3. Dunkirk: $8.5 million ($240 million) 
4. The Dark Tower: $8 million ($109 million) 
5. The Emoji Movie: $6 million ($114 million) 
6. Annabelle - Creation: $5.5 million ($60 million) 
7. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $4.5 million ($26 million)
8. Girls Trip: $4 million ($127 million) 
9. Polaroid: $3.5 million 
10. Spider-Man - Homecoming: $2 million ($313 million) 

9/1-9/4

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard: $16.5 million/$22 million ($100 million) 
2. All Saints: $16 million/$21.5 million ($45 million) 
3. Dunkirk: $8 million/$10 million ($254 million) 
4. The Emoji Movie: $6.5 million/$8.5 million ($124 million) 
5. Renegades: $6 million/$7 million 
6. The Dark Tower: $5.5 million/$6.5 million ($118 million) 
7. Leap!: $4 million/$5.5 million ($7 million) 
8. Girls Trip: $3.5 million/$4.25 million ($133 million) 
9. Annabelle - Creation: $3 million/$3.75 million ($65 million) 
10. The Nut Job 2 - Nutty by Nature: $2.5 million/$3.5 million  ($30 million) 

 

Why are you expecting so much for Dark Tower and so little for Logan Lucky?  

[Cochofles]

[mahnamahna]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Why are you expecting so much for Dark Tower and so little for Logan Lucky?  

I'm steadily adjusting Dark Tower down, so I may go as low as $23 million OW, depending on how Dunkirk does the next two weekends. Based on the reviews for both, I'm starting to think Dunkirk and Girls Trip will be the two films drawing in adult audiences over the next 7 weeks. Dark Tower looks pretty bad, so I could definitely see it bombing hard if Dunkirk gets phenomenal WOM after a $55-70 million OW

 

Logan Lucky just seems like a minor release to me. I think anything over $20 million DOM would be decent for it. It doesn't help that Hitman's Bodyguard seems to be in position to perform like the first Kingsman, either. 

 

[TwoMisfits]

8 hours ago, a2knet said:

HSX OW Trading atm:

 

48.9 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/DUNKR.OW

24.2 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/GIRLT.OW

21.2 https://www.hsx.com/security/view/VALER.OW

 

Imo, 

D will be 42-47

GT will be 28-33

V will be 17-22

Having played that game to the top .5% before I quit, I can say HSX pricing isn't all that reliable for predicting OWs (or legs:)...especially for female or minority drawing properties...

[Blankments]

On 7/14/2017 at 11:30 PM, Blankments said:

Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales and Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 are gone. Drive-in is still Despicable Me 3 and Spider-Man: Homecoming.

47 Meters Down and The Book of Henry are gone. Drive-in is Spider-Man: Homecoming and War for the Planet of the Apes.

 

Dunkirk - 20/6 (2D/IMAX) total 26 (debut)

Spider-Man: Homecoming - 19/4/1 (2D/2D with D-BOX/3D) total 24 (down 18)

War for the Planet of the Apes - 18/5 (2D/3D) total 23 (down 3)

Girls Trip - 20 (debut)

Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets - 14/6 (2D/3D) total 20 (debut)

Wish Upon - 17 (no change)
Baby Driver - 15 (down 1)
The Big Sick - 15 (down 1)
Despicable Me 3 - 15 (down 10)

Wonder Woman - 10 (down 2)

Cars 3 - 7 (down 6)
Transformers: The Last Knight - 7 (down 3)

Beatriz at Dinner - 3 (no change)

The House - 2 (down 9)

[Maxmoser3]

Emoji Movie: $36 million

Atomic Blonde:$22 million

[WrathOfHan]

Dunkirk: 31M

The Emoji Movie: 25M

Girls Trip: 18.2M

Atomic Blonde: 15M

Spider-Man Homecoming: 11M

Planet of the Apes: 9.2M

Valerian: 8.8M

Despicable Me 3: 6.4M

Baby Driver: 4M

The Big Sick: 3.5M

[filmlover]

The Emoji Movie- $34M

Atomic Blonde- $20M

[the beast]

The Emoji Movie - $39M

Dunkirk - $34.5M

Girls Trip - $24M

Atomic Blonde - $22M

Spiderman: Homecoming - $11.45M

 

 

[Viceversa]

On 7/16/2017 at 9:22 PM, Spaghetti of 1000 Planets said:

Dunkirk - $45m

Girls Trip - $30m

Apes - $25m

Spider-Man - $23m

Valerian - $17.5m

Despicable - $11m

Baby Driver - $5.5m

The Big Sick - $4.8m

Wonder Woman - $4.3m

Wish Upon - $2m

Doesn't predict often enough, but when it does occur, it's always impressive.

[TwoMisfits]

Well, got the top 5 in order on another board, but needed to work on my accuracy (although nailed Valerian - but most did:)...I expect a few more Valerian-sized openers this week just with little buzz (and the same split screen set up for Emoji)

 

Emoji Movie $23M

Atomic Blonde $17M

 

[goldenstate5]

Emoji will be lucky to crack 20 mil.

[Jonwo]

Just now, goldenstate5 said:

Emoji will be lucky to crack 20 mil.

SPA isn't having a good year, Smurfs flopped and Emoji will likely be a modest success at best. All is left is The Star and I don't see that doing huge numbers either

[YM!]

25 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

SPA isn't having a good year, Smurfs flopped and Emoji will likely be a modest success at best. All is left is The Star and I don't see that doing huge numbers either

Thankfully their budgets are so low ($20M-$60M) they can benefit. Even If The Star does CU numbers (~$100M), they'll make some nice bank. 2018 is their big test. And 2020 will likely be their end all be all year. 2017 though is easily their worst year.

[WrathOfHan]

1 hour ago, YourMother said:

Thankfully their budgets are so low ($20M-$60M) they can benefit. Even If The Star does CU numbers (~$100M), they'll make some nice bank. 2018 is their big test. And 2020 will likely be their end all be all year. 2017 though is easily their worst year.

CU didn't gross 100M..............

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

CU didn't gross 100M..............

I was talking about Worldwide.

[the beast]

My prediction for the Top 10 Movies Of Summer 2017

 

 

1. Wonder Woman: $410 million
2. GOTG Vol 2: $390 million
3. Spiderman - Homecoming: $315 million
4. Despicable Me 3: $275 million
5. Dunkirk: $235 million
6. Pirates Of The Carribean: Dead Men Tell No Tales: $170 million
7. Girls Trip: $156 million
8. Cars 3: $150 million
9. Apes 3: $145 million
10. Hitmans Bodyguard: $140 million

 

 

    

[afalconer7]

1. Emoji Movie - 31M

2. Dunkirk - 33M

3. Girls Trip - 22M

4. Atomic Blonde - 18M

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming - 11M

6. Planet of the Apes - 8M

7. Valerian - 6M

8. Despicable Me 3 - 5.8M

9. Baby Driver - 4.6M

10. The Big Sick - 3M

 

[Dandeak2000]

28th - 30th July 2017

 

1. The Emoji Movie $30

2. Dunkirk $28/$94

3. Atomic Blonde $26

4. Girls Trip $19/$60

5. Spider-Man: Homecoming $11/$270

6. War for the Planet of the Apes $9.5/$113

7. Despicable Me 3 $8/$226

8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets $7.5/$29

9. Baby Driver $3.8/$90.5

10. Wonder Woman $3/$394

 

Spoiler

4th - 6th August 2017

 

1. The Dark Tower $30

2. The Emoji Movie $18/$57

3. Dunkirk $17.5/$122

4. Atomic Blonde $14/$49

5. Girls Trip $12/$80

6. Detroit $10

7. Spider-Man: Homecoming $6/$280

8. War for the Planet of the Apes $5.3/$121

9. Despicable Me 3 $5/$235

10. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planet $4/$35

 

11th - 13th August 2017

 

1. Annabelle: Creation $32

2. The Dark Tower $15/$52

3. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature $12

4. Dunkirk $10.5/$139

5. The Emoji Movie $10/$73.5

6. Atomic Blonde $8.5/$63

7. Girls Trip $8/$93

8. Detroit $5/$18

9. Spider-Man: Homecoming $3.5/$286

10. War for the Planet of the Apes $3/$126

 

18th - 20th August 2017

 

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard $25

2. Logan Lucky $15

3. Annabelle: Creation $14.5/$61

4. The Dark Tower $9/$67

5. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature $7/$24

6. Dunkirk $6.5/$150

7. The Emoji Movie $6/$83

8. Atomic Blonde $5.5/$72.5

9. Girls Trip $5/$98

10. Detroit $3/$23

 

25th - 27th August 2017

 

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard $13/$45

2. Polaroid $10

3. Logan Lucky $8.3/$28

4. Annabelle: Creation $8/$74

5. The Dark Tower $5/$75

6. Leap! $4.2/$4.8

7. Dunkirk $4/$156.5

8. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature $3.5/$30

9. Tulip Fever $3.3

10. The Emoji Movie $3/$88

 

1st - 3rd September 2017

 

1. The Hitman's Bodyguard $9/$59

2. Polaroid $6/$20

3. Logan Lucky $6/$38

4. Annabelle: Creation $5.5/$83

5. Unlocked $4.6

6. The Dark Tower $3.5/$81

7. Leap! $3.3/$9.8

8. Hazolo Como Hombre (Do It Like An Hombre) $3.1

9. Dunkirk $3/$161

10. The Nut Job 2: Nutty By Nature $2.8/$34.2

 

8th - 10th September 2017

 

1. It $50

2. 9/11 $7.5

3. The Hitman's Bodyguard $5/$67

4. Home Again $3.9

5. Logan Lucky $3.8/$44

6. Annabelle: Creation $3/$88

7. The Dark Tower $2/$84

8. Leap! $1.8/$11.6

9. Dunkirk $1.7/$164

10. The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature $1.8/$37

 

15th - 17th September 2017

 

1. It $30/$100

2. American Assassin $15

3. mother! $12.5

4. All I See Is You $7.5

5. 9/11 $4/$14

6. The Hitman's Bodyguard $3.5/$73

7. Logan Lucky $2.2/$48

8. Home Again $1.8/$7

9. Annabelle: Creation $1.6/$91

10. The Dark Tower $1.3/$86.5