How HV sales used to turn big box office hits into massive box office GIANTS

[Barnack]

4 minutes ago, langer said:

Yeah I don't know how they get those figures. 

 

On the-numbers they say:

 

Precise information on Blu-ray sales is not generally available. Our Blu-ray sales figures are estimates based on studio figures, publicly available data, and private research on retail sales carried out by Nash Information Services. The figures include estimated sales at Wal-Mart and other retailers that do not publicly release sales information.

 

They do not know sales figures, that very high average sales number price would require a lot of special edition, 4K, sales, etc... but I would imagine they do the best they can.

 

And do much better than simply prediction from box office and they are far from totally useless, the correlation between the-numbers sales figures and movies home video revenues from the Sony leaked movie was really good, much better than the correlation between box office and home video revenue .

 

That said those sales figures are getting more and more useful, not just because they are for only one country and gross estimate, sales are not specially high in some genre vs rentals and now physical sales are becoming a even smaller % of HV because of itunes types sales.

 

 

[Krissykins]

I'd be interested to see how Ghostbusters is doing on streaming, it hit #1 on all the US websites when it was released, and its performing really well disc sale wise. (1.5m+, $35m).

 

Its the type of movie that does well on streaming, planes, VOD etc. I know they had a nice deal with FX for US tv and SkyMovies (here in the U.K.). 

 

@Barnack can you help? 

[Barnack]

I'm not so sure I fully understand, but I will try.

 

McCarthy type of comedy is a type that usually overperform on renting vs sales, but Ghostbuster is the type of movie that usually sell a lot in property that would have usually be a bit of a collector item, but in this case I doubt that it sell like that because of the fanbase reaction. So I'm really not sure were it land exactly.

 

It probably is doing ok on airlines (like movies clean enough to be played do), but a really good airlines + soundtrack sales performances is 2.5/3 million, a great one 4/5 million.

[langer]

Blu Ray numbers are out and only holdovers are worth analyzing.  Finding Dory has passed the 50M$ mark on Blu Ray, the first animated movie since Minions to do so.  Secret Life of Pets will reach this next week and it is less than 500K$ away, SLOP should win the 2016 animation crown on HV in both Blu Ray and Combined category with Zootopia winning the DVD category (I don't believe Moana or Sing stand a chance).  Star Wars : TFA is now 10M$ away from reaching the 150M$ mark on Blu Ray. 

 

[Barnack]

Some people that worked on Home Alone must be happy to still get good Residual paycheck, 899 weeks into the home video release.

[langer]

Numbers for week ending Jan 1st are out : Blu Ray chart 

 

Secret Life of Pets reached 50M$ on Blu Ray, the 2nd animated movie of 2016 to do so.  It should pass FD in the next two weeks.  Suicide Squad is one week away from becoming the 4th 2016 CBM to reach 50M$ on Blu Ray after Deadpool, BvS and CA:CW.  It should end up in 2nd place behind Deadpool.  Although it is still in the top 10,  SW:TFA shouldn't reach any milestone for a couple months (rank 3 all time units, 150M$, rank 2 & eventually 1 in $, 158M$ and 162M$ milestones).  Some of them could happen with the Blu Ray release boost of Rogue One, but it is most realistic to expect these milestones with the release of The Last Jedi.  

 

Not much to talk about on the DVD side of things : DVD chart

 

While SLOP will beat FD on DVD and reach 30M$, this is not something to be proud of as it is barely above The Good Dinosaur and will end up far away from Zootopia which sits at 46M$.  Looking at the past three years of DVD sales, it looks like sales have stabilized in the 30M$-45M$ range for the yearly top 10 (with the notable exception of Frozen).  Just a reminder that no movie has achieved 50M$ on DVD since Inside Out released late in 2015 with Minions (49M$) and Zootopia (46M$) being the closest to the milestones since then.  

 

On the combined side of things : combined chart

 

SLOP (81M$) will also beat FD (83M$)  and fall short of passing Zootopia (95M$).  Suicide Squad (68M$) will pass both BvS (72M$) and CA:CW (73M$) but will fall short of passing Deadpool (90M$).  SW:TFA is about 2-3 weeks away from reaching 175M$.  The last movie to reach this milestone is Frozen and the last live action movie is the first Avengers.  

 

 

[narniadis]

Thanks for keeping this updated @langer Stabilization is a great way to look at things and frankly, I wonder how much of that as a percentage is related to companies buying copies for rental kiosks or even netflix.

[TalismanRing]

2 hours ago, langer said:

Numbers for week ending Jan 1st are out : Blu Ray chart 

 

Secret Life of Pets reached 50M$ on Blu Ray, the 2nd animated movie of 2016 to do so.  It should pass FD in the next two weeks.  Suicide Squad is one week away from becoming the 4th 2016 CBM to reach 50M$ on Blu Ray after Deadpool, BvS and CA:CW.  It should end up in 2nd place behind Deadpool.  Although it is still in the top 10,  SW:TFA shouldn't reach any milestone for a couple months (rank 3 all time units, 150M$, rank 2 & eventually 1 in $, 158M$ and 162M$ milestones).  Some of them could happen with the Blu Ray release boost of Rogue One, but it is most realistic to expect these milestones with the release of The Last Jedi.  

 

Not much to talk about on the DVD side of things : DVD chart

 

While SLOP will beat FD on DVD and reach 30M$, this is not something to be proud of as it is barely above The Good Dinosaur and will end up far away from Zootopia which sits at 46M$.  Looking at the past three years of DVD sales, it looks like sales have stabilized in the 30M$-45M$ range for the yearly top 10 (with the notable exception of Frozen).  Just a reminder that no movie has achieved 50M$ on DVD since Inside Out released late in 2015 with Minions (49M$) and Zootopia (46M$) being the closest to the milestones since then.  

 

On the combined side of things : combined chart

 

SLOP (81M$) will also beat FD (83M$)  and fall short of passing Zootopia (95M$).  Suicide Squad (68M$) will pass both BvS (72M$) and CA:CW (73M$) but will fall short of passing Deadpool (90M$).  SW:TFA is about 2-3 weeks away from reaching 175M$.  The last movie to reach this milestone is Frozen and the last live action movie is the first Avengers.  

 

 

 

  SS still calculated at $30 per BR copy.  50% more than Deadpool & CW and even 20% higher than BvS started at.

[langer]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

  SS still calculated at $30 per BR copy.  50% more than Deadpool & CW and even 20% higher than BvS started at.

 

I know it's hard to compare because of release date, but Suicide Squad still as a higher selling price on Amazon now, but I agree that estimating $ figures based on 30$/ unit is probably off.  

[shayhiri]

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, narniadis said:

Thanks for keeping this updated @langer Stabilization is a great way to look at things and frankly, I wonder how much of that as a percentage is related to companies buying copies for rental kiosks or even netflix.

 

I never thought that rental copies were in those the-numbers estimates list (I doubt they are, but that could explain the high average price, copy for rentals business did cost quite a lot back in the days, over 80$ I think).

 

Netflix subscriber did stabilize a little bit, I think you are probably right:

 

It is one of the biggest factor why HE started to fall after the 2006/2007, it tripled between 2007 and 2010 and stagnated/stabilized between 2014/2017, with almost all the growth being outside the US.

[narniadis]

Yeah, I wasn't sure if rental copies are included but I know some around my area that have straight from store discs (not marked rental on them) so I know there has to be a % that are just buying in store as average joes.

[Napoleon]

BVS and SS doing really well, DC keeps slaying.

[langer]

Blu Ray chart for week ending Jan 15th is out. 

 

Not much to talk about until Doctor Strange gets released in mid February.  SS reached 50M$, Deadpool reached 60M$ and SLOP is looking to pass FD next week.  In terms of units, both SS and SLOP are trailing badly though.  The next several months will only have two major blockbusters on HV (Rogue 1 and BATB) as well as some mid size blockbusters (Sing, Moana,  DS, Fantastic Beasts and Logan). 

 

[langer]

Not much to talk in the last 3 weeks. 

 

Suicide Squad has passed both BvS and CA: Civil War in $ while trailing them in units.  Same situation with Secret Life of Pets and Finding Dory.  Zootopia is still the animated king of 2016 for the moment with 98M$, mostly due to very strong DVD sales compared to Blu Ray. 

 

On  another note, Frozen is now only 19M$ away from reaching 400M$, the first movie to reach this mark since the first Narnia movie in 2005.  Avatar is only 5M$ away but Frozen has gotten 23M$ in sales since Sept 2015 while Avatar has gotten a meager 4M$. 

 

Despicable Me has become only the 2nd movie released since 2010 to reach 200M$ on DVD (Frozen being the other one).   Toy Story 3 with 191M$ should be the next (and probably last) one to reach it when the sequel gets released.

 

Here's the latest combined chart.

 

[langer]

We finally have some interesting numbers with the release of Dr Strange on Blu Ray.  25M$ on Blu Ray for its first week is below all 2016 CBM except X Men Apocalypse.  This was also expected considering its DOM gross.   The only other relevant release in the last 4 weeks is Trolls, a movie that was a mid size hit both on HV and in theaters.  Its 29M$ on Blu Ray is currently about half of what the animated blockbusters made.  Beauty and the Beast (1991) is about to become the 6th movie to reach 100M$ on Blu Ray.

 

There's only 4 more 2016 blockbusters left to appear on this chart (Rogue One, Moana, Sing and Fantastic Beasts).

 

[Napoleon]

Crazy to think BVS ended up making more on home video than Civil War, and Ghostbusters more than X-Men Apocalypse and Star Trek Beyond.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, langer said:

We finally have some interesting numbers with the release of Dr Strange on Blu Ray.  25M$ on Blu Ray for its first week is below all 2016 CBM except X Men Apocalypse.  This was also expected considering its DOM gross.   The only other relevant release in the last 4 weeks is Trolls, a movie that was a mid size hit both on HV and in theaters.  Its 29M$ on Blu Ray is currently about half of what the animated blockbusters made.  Beauty and the Beast (1991) is about to become the 6th movie to reach 100M$ on Blu Ray.

 

There's only 4 more 2016 blockbusters left to appear on this chart (Rogue One, Moana, Sing and Fantastic Beasts).

 

 

Strange with $25m -  calculated from a $31 per unit average.   

 

I give up trying to understand where Numbers.com pulls these sales prices from but it makes $ figures near meaningless

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Strange with $25m -  calculated from a $31 per unit average.   

 

I give up trying to understand where Numbers.com pulls these sales prices from but it makes $ figures near meaningless

 

Physical media maybe became collectible/high end edition heavy (specially the first week were all the pre-sales go through)

 

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_ss_i_1_16?url=search-alias%3Dmovies-tv&field-keywords=dr+strange+steelbook&sprefix=Dr+strange+steel%2Cmovies-tv%2C160&crid=SRM0011WQB8B

 

Looking at amazon, price goes from $18.99, $35 to $69.95

 

 

[Mojoguy]

Strange with $25m - calculated from a $31 per unit average. :bash:

I give up trying to understand where Numbers.com pulls these sales prices from but it makes $ figures near meaningless

It's way better to look at units sold if you want to be the most accurate because prices can be all over the place.