THE GOOD DINOSAUR | 209.1 M overseas | 332.2 M worldwide

[Quigley]

I want it to surprise us, going beyond $1B

 

My theory is that there are two factors:

 

Pre-release buzz influences opening weekend

WOM influences the rest of the run.

 

I don't feel like it has enough buzz in enough countries to have sufficiently high openings that will then propel it to $1B (assuming WOM is really really good).

[Eleven]

My theory is that there are two factors:

 

Pre-release buzz influences opening weekend

WOM influences the rest of the run.

 

I don't feel like it has enough buzz in enough countries to have sufficiently high openings that will then propel it to $1B (assuming WOM is really really good).

Pre-release buzz influences opening weekend: more important for sequels, it also depends by the strenght of marketing.

WOM influences the rest of the run: is very important for originals, especially when it is followed by the "self-promotion" on social media (as happened for the Frozen soundtrack on YouTube)

 

TGD could have a similar prelease buzz of IO but I think it won't have the same WOM. I Predict 300+400=700

[Quigley]

TGD could have a similar prelease buzz of IO but I think it won't have the same WOM. I Predict 300+400=700

 

That number would be quite impressive imo. Although tbh, given inflation, $700M should be the minimum target.

Edited October 18, 2015 by Quigley

[CoolK]

If this is IO-level good...I see this making more than IO overseas...

Apart from Cars franchise...this is most kid friendly pixar movie in forever

[zzrshr]

If this is IO-level good...I see this making more than IO overseas...

Apart from Cars franchise...this is most kid friendly pixar movie in forever

Just for movies not toys, NEMO is more attractive than others Edited October 18, 2015 by BOOOOB

[Fullbuster]

I will make a crazy prediction about The Good Dinosaur : it will reach $1B WW I know it's quite unlikely but I REALLY believe in its potential

[peludo]

8 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

I will make a crazy prediction about The Good Dinosaur : it will reach $1B WW I know it's quite unlikely but I REALLY believe in its potential

Play big or go home. I think it has a chance too.

[Quigley]

On 8/11/2015, 6:57:48, Fullbuster said:

I will make a crazy prediction about The Good Dinosaur : it will reach $1B WW I know it's quite unlikely but I REALLY believe in its potential

 

I mean if someone had said that for Frozen before its release, I would've called them crazy. As much as I want TGD to reach a billion, I'm still calling you crazy. There is no way this will come close to a billion.

[Arthur Pendragon]

1 hour ago, quigquag33 said:

 

I mean if someone had said that for Frozen before its release, I would've called them crazy. As much as I want TGD to reach a billion, I'm still calling you crazy. There is no way this will come close to a billion.

I hope he's right though :p

[Fullbuster]

3 hours ago, quigquag33 said:

 

I mean if someone had said that for Frozen before its release, I would've called them crazy. As much as I want TGD to reach a billion, I'm still calling you crazy. There is no way this will come close to a billion.

Why not? IO got pretty close from it, if TGD can breakthrough in Japan/China (it has more potential in these countries) then it would just needs to have IO numbers elsewhere.

[ThomasNicole]

I can see a fall in some countries compared to inside out, but with better results in japan and china, achieving a total close to inside out (OS, US and WW).

If the film is really exceptional as I believe it is, i would not be surprised if in addition to increase in Japan and China, he also grew up in the same markets compared to inside out, exceeding the billion.

[Omni]

The film looks kinda childish. Lack of competition should push it quite high though, probably around 750M.

[movieboner]

I hope it grosses more than Minions worldwide. The dinosaur hype train is still alive with Jurassic World.

[Purple Minion]

Opens on a Thursday in Mexico, as per IMDB, virtually no competition for 3 weeks. I estimate similar numbers as IO: US$9-11M OW and US$32-35M total, depending on the ER.

[CoolK]

so this is opening pratically everywere in the next couple of weeks.   feeling that this may do more than IO OS even if it is not that good

[Omni]

I'm starting to have sub-600M vibes.

[Quigley]

I doubt it will do sub-$600M, no matter how bad it is. But $600M is the floor and I don't want it anywhere near that.

[CoolK]

do you guys mean sub-600m WW ?? 

NA will most likely d0 250...if it only does 350mn OS with this kid friendly premise..it would be extremely disappointing.

[Omni]

Hype is non-existent. In NA it could do 200/250, OS it will probably lose 20%+ from Inside Out. And with the bad exchange rate we're experiencing these days, 350M OS (assuming China and Japan deliver modest numbers) wouldn't be bad.

[keysersoze123]

I think it will beat brave domestic for sure. It will play great with families. Japan is not a gold mine for Pixar original flicks anymore. But I am hoping China can connect better with this than IO. Overall I am with Omni on OS gross. 600m WW wont be so bad for this one.