Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice | 532m overseas | 851m Worldwide

[KenterKane]

$750 million seems right for it, and like $560 million in US for a worldwide total of $1,310 million.

[MinaTakla]

700 OS

420 DOM

1.12 WW

[fmpro]

480 mill DOM

915 mill OS

1.395 B WW

[Juby]

$915 mln seems way too high. I know this movie has a Batman, but still... it would have to explode in China with over $300 mln to reach $900 mln.

 

Also, MoS OS gross was 56,4% of total, TDKR was 58,7%. BvS won't go higher than 60% from foreign markets. Batman and Superman are too strong in Domestic box office.

Edited September 2, 2015 by Juby

[peludo]

$915 mln seems way too high. I know this movie has a Batman, but still... it would have to explode in China with over $300 mln to reach $900 mln.

 

Also, MoS OS gross was 56,4% of total, TDKR was 58,7%. BvS won't go higher than 60% from foreign markets. Batman and Superman are too strong in Domestic box office.

You must consider the genre itself as a whole, not just some characters. In 2012, Avengers did a 41-59 ratio, the same year than TDKR. 3 years later, AoU has done 33-67. You should not discard something like 35-65, with 500 DOM / 900 OS. I do not say this will the scenario, but I do not think it is so crazy.

Edited September 2, 2015 by peludo

[Fake]

400M DOM

850M OS (250M China)

[Omario]

670m OS

[Juby]

You must consider the genre itself as a whole, not just some characters. In 2012, Avengers did a 41-59 ratio, the same year than TDKR. 3 years later, AoU has done 33-67. You should not discard something like 35-65, with 500 DOM / 900 OS. I do not say this will the scenario, but I do not think it is so crazy.

 

This would be the first Batman or Superman movie with over 60% from foreign markets.

 

400M DOM

850M OS (250M China)

 

Again, 68% OS? How? $400 mln DOM is definitely too low.

Edited September 2, 2015 by Juby

[Tower]

This would be the first Batman or Superman movie with over 60% from foreign markets.

 

 

Again, 68% OS? How? $400 mln DOM is definitely too low.

 

The OS market has grown faster than DOM, so the percent a film is expected to make OS has also grown. breaking a franchise record for OS% isn't unusual, and is often expected. Just look at how the Dark Knight trilogy behaved:

Batman Begins: 44.9% OS

The Dark Knight: 46.8% OS

The Dark Knight Rises: 58.7% OS

 

I don't see how you can look at these numbers and insist that just because of the characters it somehow can't pass 60%, when the OS market has continued to grow quickly since then.

[peludo]

This would be the first Batman or Superman movie with over 60% from foreign markets.

 

 

Again, 68% OS? How? $400 mln DOM is definitely too low.

There is a first time for everything. look at MCU:

 

1. Iron Man: 54-45

2. The Incredible Hulk: 51-49

3. Iron Man 2: 50-50

4. Thor: 40-60

5. Captain America: 48-52

6. The Avengers: 41-59

7. Iron Man 3: 34-66

8. Thor 2: 32-68

9. Captain America 2: 36-64

10. Guardians of the Galaxy: 43-57

11. The Avengers 2: 33-67

12. Ant-Man: 46-54

 

The general rule says that OS weight is more and more important for SH movies. Since Avengers, every sequel has well over 60% in OS markets, and GotG, and unknown brand, nearly reached that figure.

 

Concerning Batman and Superman, we have the same trend:

 

1. Batman: 61-39

2. Batman Returns: 61-39

3. Batman Forever: 55-45

4. Batman & Robin: 55-45

5. Batman Begins: 55-45

6. The Dark Knight: 53-47

7. The Dark Knight Rises: 41-59

 

I do not have data for Superman 2-4:

1. Superman: 45-55

2. Superman Returns: 51-49

3. Man of Steel: 44-56

 

Look at the jump from TDK to TDKR. And remember that TDKR or MOS did "just" $50m in China, where I do not expect something less than $150m for BvS. Adding those $100m difference from China would have made for both TDKR and MOS a 38-62 ratio, quite similar to MCU films.

[Juby]

OK, 38-62 seems possible, but we'll see.

[peludo]

Of course, there is nothing locked

[#ED]

Bumping. It's TIME.

[fmpro]

On 2. sep. 2015 13.47.38, Juby said:

$915 mln seems way too high. I know this movie has a Batman, but still... it would have to explode in China with over $300 mln to reach $900 mln.

 

Also, MoS OS gross was 56,4% of total, TDKR was 58,7%. BvS won't go higher than 60% from foreign markets. Batman and Superman are too strong in Domestic box office.

 

Maybe it is. But hey. Sometimes you have to go big..

TA2 did 950 mill. Can't see why this won't have a chance to match if its really really good..

Am i 100% sure?? Not even close. But i would not be surprised

[Juby]

$605,000,000

[Gokai Red]

450 DOM, 750 OS, 1200 WW.

[TommyA10]

On 9/2/2015 at 7:53 PM, peludo said:

There is a first time for everything. look at MCU:

 

1. Iron Man: 54-45

2. The Incredible Hulk: 51-49

3. Iron Man 2: 50-50

4. Thor: 40-60

5. Captain America: 48-52

6. The Avengers: 41-59

7. Iron Man 3: 34-66

8. Thor 2: 32-68

9. Captain America 2: 36-64

10. Guardians of the Galaxy: 43-57

11. The Avengers 2: 33-67

12. Ant-Man: 46-54

 

The general rule says that OS weight is more and more important for SH movies. Since Avengers, every sequel has well over 60% in OS markets, and GotG, and unknown brand, nearly reached that figure.

 

Concerning Batman and Superman, we have the same trend:

 

1. Batman: 61-39

2. Batman Returns: 61-39

3. Batman Forever: 55-45

4. Batman & Robin: 55-45

5. Batman Begins: 55-45

6. The Dark Knight: 53-47

7. The Dark Knight Rises: 41-59

 

I do not have data for Superman 2-4:

1. Superman: 45-55

2. Superman Returns: 51-49

3. Man of Steel: 44-56

 

Look at the jump from TDK to TDKR. And remember that TDKR or MOS did "just" $50m in China, where I do not expect something less than $150m for BvS. Adding those $100m difference from China would have made for both TDKR and MOS a 38-62 ratio, quite similar to MCU films.

You need to take exchange rates into consideration. Compared to 2012, when TDKR was released, exchange rates are terrible. 

Euro is 13% weaker.

Japanese Yen is 33% weaker.

Australian dollar is 30% weaker.

Russian Ruble is 57% weaker.

Mexican Peso is 25% weaker.

[Heretic]

Pound has also dropped by a considerable amount, especially very recently, Although not as harshly as other currencies.  TDKR would drop to around $79m now, compared to $90m in 2012. 

 

£40m, which is a reasonable expectation for Batman V Superman in the UK, would only equal $56m.

 

 

[peludo]

5 hours ago, TommyA10 said:

You need to take exchange rates into consideration. Compared to 2012, when TDKR was released, exchange rates are terrible. 

Euro is 13% weaker.

Japanese Yen is 33% weaker.

Australian dollar is 30% weaker.

Russian Ruble is 57% weaker.

Mexican Peso is 25% weaker.

I always do

 

Take a look at TA ratio (2012) and AoU ratio (2015), when ERs were already crap relative to 2012.

 

In 2008, TDK had the best ER we have ever seen, and still TDKR, with some worse ER's (not as bad as now, that's true, but still worse), was able to change the ratio in a 12% (53 to 41 domestically).

 

The ratios, of course, depend on the ERs, but even with bad ERs, the SH genre keeps the progression making the OS gross more predominant than the DOM's. And although we have a new Batman, I think that, since everyone already knows him, Superman has already been introduced, and adding other known characters, the OS potential can compensate the ER factor. I do not think that a high 30s/low 60s is so crazy for this film.

Edited January 28, 2016 by peludo

[KenterKane]

DOM: 470 MILLION (38%)

OVERSEAS: 775 MILLION. (62%)

 

TOTAL: 1,245 MILLION.