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What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

China to Overtake Domestic  

87 members have voted

  1. 1. What year will China pass Domestic in US$

  2. 2. What year will a film exceed $1B

  3. 3. Which Franchise will be the First $1B Baby

    • Avengers
    • Avatar
    • Batman
      0
    • Superman
      0
    • Transformers
    • Jurassic
      0
    • Harry Potter (you never know)
      0
    • Pirates
      0
    • Kung Fu Panda
    • Fast and Furious
    • Something from James Cameron -Other than avatar
    • Christoper Nolan
    • Steven Spielberg
      0
    • Jerry Bruckheimer
      0
    • Peter Jackson
      0
    • Journey to the west. IDK if that is sequalable
    • Monkey King
    • Taking of Tiger Mount
    • Chinese Zodiak
      0
    • Star Wars


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sgchn40    97

Would it be a different picture if we take into account just urban GDP, GDP growth and urban income growth? I may be wrong but urban income growth in China is about 10% from 2012 to 2013. I am wondering if this 10% growth is a big contributor to the growth as well and hence if continue will power Chinese box office for a while before it peters off as you have shared.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/259451/annual-per-capita-disposable-income-of-rural-and-urban-households-in-china/

Edited by sgchn40

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POTUS    4,358

Would it be a different picture if we take into account just urban GDP, GDP growth and urban income growth? I may be wrong but urban income growth in China is about 10% from 2012 to 2013. I am wondering if this 10% growth is a big contributor to the growth as well and hence if continue will power Chinese box office for a while before it peters off as you have shared.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/259451/annual-per-capita-disposable-income-of-rural-and-urban-households-in-china/

Yes that will continue to help the BO grow, but most of the 20-30%+ increases we've seen in the last 10 years was result of 25 years GDP and urbanization. without the BO growing early on.

 

Now 10% increases in income for the top 20-30% of income earners may not create more movie going. If once a month is their habit, I doubt they will go more.  I went once per month when I made less than 20k per year, and still just once when I made over 100k. I dropped down to  less than once a month in my 30s because I got tired sequels and remakes and the same old storylines- 80% of Tom Cruise movies; Hot shot boy meets hot girl, has best friend, loses girl, best friend dies or nearly dies, realizes being a hot shot is not so important, love is, and goes and gets girl back. Top Gun, Top Car(days of thunder) Top Bar(Cocktail) Top Fighter(far and away) Top Lawyer(The Firm)Top Agent(Jerry McGuire) (the last Cruise movie I allowed a girlfriend to drag me to,  told her this story line before we went and essentially ruined the movie for her. I had her at hello:) The Last Top Samarai etc. The point is, the top earners may actually start going less as they have watched a lot of unoriginal crap for 10 years now and have more money to spend on live theater or a concert

 

It will help minimum wage workers of $1-3 per hour to start going or increase frequency. So I don't think it directly bumps it 10%, When I said it flattens out(peters off) I was thinking 5-7% growth. 5% could come from increased income levels and 2% could be from urbanization ( going from 54-55% next year) This of course barring; a global bedshitting, causing growth stagnation and high unemployment and cease to urbanization. Also the dollar XR has slipped an averaged 2% per year for the last 10. You can subtract that from the 7% unless that trend reverses.

 

I tried to come up with all different ratios to find answers and overlooked the simplest one BO/GDPnom 2015 est

USA .055%

CHI  .059%

WW .060%

Could go to .070% like mexico. Either way that tells me it near its peak then its maybe 5-7% per year.

 

One more thing; Quality Product. China is up 30% so far this year. Firedeep said July could be flat or down because there is nothing on the docket that could do TF4 numbers. Whats going to do 390m and 225m next April may to increase this market. A lot of hype for a few movies that make up a lot of the BO. China will have to come up with new and fresh local movies to keep it going.

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POTUS    4,358

Would it be a different picture if we take into account just urban GDP, GDP growth and urban income growth? I may be wrong but urban income growth in China is about 10% from 2012 to 2013. I am wondering if this 10% growth is a big contributor to the growth as well and hence if continue will power Chinese box office for a while before it peters off as you have shared.

http://www.statista.com/statistics/259451/annual-per-capita-disposable-income-of-rural-and-urban-households-in-china/

Think I have it spelled out now

 

 

  Screens Tix M Increase BO $M Increase Tix Ave GDPnom BO%nom GDPppp BO%ppp ppp % nom
2003       125     1,650,000 .0076% 4,960,000 .0025% 200.6%
2004       187 49.60%   1,940,000 .0096% 5,610,000 .0033% 189.2%
2005 4400 157   250 33.69% $1.59 2,270,000 .0110% 6,400,000 .0039% 181.9%
2006 4700 176 12.10% 342 36.80% $1.94 2,730,000 .0125% 7,330,000 .0047% 168.5%
2007 5600 195 10.80% 438 28.07% $2.25 3,520,000 .0124% 8,840,000 .0050% 151.1%
2008 5700 209 7.18% 586 33.79% $2.80 4,560,000 .0129% 9,850,000 .0059% 116.0%
2009 6300 263 25.84% 873 48.98% $3.32 5,060,000 .0173% 10,700,000 .0082% 111.5%
2010 7800 290 10.27% 1452 66.32% $5.01 6,040,000 .0240% 12,300,000 .0118% 103.6%
2011 9200 370 27.59% 1929 32.85% $5.21 7,500,000 .0257% 13,800,000 .0140% 84.0%
2012 14000 462 24.86% 2586 34.06% $5.60 8,460,000 .0306% 14,900,000 .0174% 76.1%
2013 18100 612 32.47% 3400 31.48% $5.56 9,500,000 .0358% 16,200,000 .0210% 70.5%
2014 23600 830 35.62% 4800 41.18% $5.78 10,360,000 .0463% 17,630,000 .0272% 70.2%
2015       6500 35.42%   11,100,000 .0586% 18,800,000 .0346% 69.4%
                       
'05-'14 % Inc 436% 429%   1820%   263% 356% 321% 175% 597% -61%
                       
Russia       1400     1,850,000 .0757% 3,500,000 .0400% 89.2%
Mexico       900     1,280,000 .0703% 2,140,000 .0421% 67.2%
France       1800     2,850,000 .0632% 2,580,000 .0698% -9.5%
UK       1700     3,050,000 .0557% 2,500,000 .0680% -18.0%
China 2015       6500     11,100,000 .0586% 18,800,000 .0346% 69.4%
USA       9500     17,800,000 .0534% 17,800,000 .0534% 0.0%
Brazil       800     2,350,000 .0340% 3,260,000 .0245% 38.7%
India       1700     2,050,000 .0829% 7,400,000 .0230% 261.0%

 

First we can the BO growth relative to the economy. 40% of the $ growth was inflation. While GDPnom grew  356% BO grew 1820% while the % of GDPppp was shrinking.  This is where we can see the BO catching up to the economy as opposed to just growing with it. Ticket inflation slowed 2 years ago, most of the growth since then was in screens/admissions.

 

Should the economy stop growing where could it get too?

Mexico and Russia are the best comparisons for its potential at .070 and .075 BO/GDPnom with .040 and .042 BO/GDPppp. They have similar ppp% over nom 67 and 89% and a low GDPnom p/cap under 13,000.  

 

Brazil shows that with a lower percentage of ppp over nom, 38.7%, its BO percentages are not as high, .034/.024.

India shows 261% ppp over nom. hence it has huge Bo/nom %, .083, but a small BO/ppp %, .023. 

 

France UK and US  are in the range of .053-.070 for both values. They are established BO markets, slow growing economies, and ppp over nom are not positive. and all with over 30k ppp p/cap and nom p/cap

 

So chinas target should be BO/GDPnom.070 and BO/GDPppp.040. As the ppp percentage continues to decrease over nom and wages increase, the BO percentage will gravitate toward each other, say .060 and .050. However, BO/GDPpppPC at .050 and higher is reserved for countries with GDPppp per capita twice has high(33k-55k) as China's(17.7k) which will take at least 10 years to double. Remember, its growing slower than nominal as it loses consistently ground

 

.070 and .040 are just 20% from 2015s projected total 6,5B, .058/.035.

7.8B would be a reasonable max for the current economy, This still not taking into consideration the low urban figure, perhaps 10-20% lower as Germany and Italy exemplify. That puts its in the 6.2B to 7B range or in essence, it may have caught up and we will see an average growth of 5-7% growth over the next 5 years starting in 2016 barring a crisis. We may know if this is beginning to happen as early as next year or perhaps the end of this year if the growth cant keep up with the first 2 quarters.

 

My prediction for 2020

China 8.8B

USA 10.8B

DOM  11.9B

 

2030

China 13B

USA   13.2B

DOM  14.5B

 

 

 

 

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POTUS    4,358

It will reach 8.8B USD by 2017

I'll bet you 100 pts on that in the Casino thread, Ill give you over $8B

and another 100 pts that its not over 9.5B in 2020

No need to tell him now and tie up points for that long. we'll have him journal the points when the time comes if the Casino is still open and I'm still breathing :)

Bet?

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POTUS    4,358

It will reach 8.8B USD by 2017

I know the 1st quarter was up big. How is it year to date. Do you have any monthly stats?

 

Edit. Holy shit. I added up BOM's weekly top ten thru May 4. Up 62% for the year I imagine May is going be good too w TA2. Last May was 360m. FF7 and TA2 alone will account for 270m+ this May. I assume locals would have to be well over 100m for a 400m+ month

 

I'm sticking with my GDP numbers regardless

Edited by M F Lawrence
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sgchn40    97

I know the 1st quarter was up big. How is it year to date. Do you have any monthly stats?

Edit. Holy shit. I added up BOM's weekly top ten thru May 4. Up 62% for the year I imagine May is going be good too w TA2. Last May was 360m. FF7 and TA2 alone will account for 270m+ this May. I assume locals would have to be well over 100m for a 400m+ month

I'm sticking with my GDP numbers regardless

This is what I mean when I wrote earlier of the impact of lower ticket price. The media is saying that it is now moving from a luxury good to a mass commodity. Would be interesting to tally the number at the end of this year.

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POTUS    4,358

This is what I mean when I wrote earlier of the impact of lower ticket price. The media is saying that it is now moving from a luxury good to a mass commodity. Would be interesting to tally the number at the end of this year.

the average needs to come down at least 20%. China has the most expensive ticket compared GDPnom p/cap.  Russia is next, 20% lower.

India sold 1.9  billion tickets but at less than $1. They are a little lower than Russia

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sgchn40    97

the average needs to come down at least 20%. China has the most expensive ticket compared GDPnom p/cap.  Russia is next, 20% lower.

India sold 1.9  billion tickets but at less than $1. They are a little lower than Russia

 

And it's inevitable. By the way, I am curious why you think that a Christopher Nolan film will be the first $1 billion movie. Is it because Cameron will be too old by then? 

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POTUS    4,358

And it's inevitable. By the way, I am curious why you think that a Christopher Nolan film will be the first $1 billion movie. Is it because Cameron will be too old by then? 

Cameron has only put out two films in 20 years. I don't see him doing much after avatar unless he keeps working like Eastwood into his 80's. Nolan is young enough and has put out some original work too. It'll take something original to take the BO to that level in china.  eg jaws, star wars, et, titanic, avatar in domestic history are the record breakers

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sgchn40    97

Cameron has only put out two films in 20 years. I don't see him doing much after avatar unless he keeps working like Eastwood into his 80's. Nolan is young enough and has put out some original work too. It'll take something original to take the BO to that level in china.  eg jaws, star wars, et, titanic, avatar in domestic history are the record breakers

 

Do you think the first billion dollar movie will happen in China or Domestic? Because Nolan may be able to achieve that in domestic... but his record in China is not exactly stellar...

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POTUS    4,358

First billion dollar movie will happen in Domestic. China is near its peak in terms of BO to GDP per cap and still had decades to catch up,  Lucas and Cameron had their missteps too. Nolan does original which will be necessary and may hit it. China will fall in line with the next big thing being their top movie like titanic an avatar is in many countries as opposed to midline blockbusters being their top movie thus far.

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Gokai Red    755

Do you think the first billion dollar movie will happen in China or Domestic? Because Nolan may be able to achieve that in domestic... but his record in China is not exactly stellar...

That's because it's... INTERSTELLAR! *slaps knee*

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POTUS    4,358

2e2pemv.jpg

 

 

Box Office Bubble?

The chart shows the percentage Chines BO gains accumulated over the last 11 years including the 60% increase year to date for 2015, year 11. Also, Nasdaq's 11 year run peaking in March 2000 and ensuing dump, and Japan's Nikkei from 1979-90

 

Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd. Many people(sheeple) do things because others are doing them regardless of quality or value. Like a popular new chic restaurant with a sub par menu, sooner or later it will slow down and even close a few years later.

 

The chart above is classic thru the centuries for stock, real estate and commodity bubbles as well as booming industries. 30-90% drops happen in those markets after the biggest gain in the run. This wont happen because there wont be sellers of tickets to knock the BO down like they would a stock market, but a lack of buyers could cause a small drop and with too big a build out, some theaters will close.

 

Last July exploded with TF4s performance. It will be interesting to see how the monthly's look starting from that point thru this month next year. A lot of blockbusters to outperform and the trend of going to the movies for the sake of it may turn to a more fickle movie goer as the market matures.

Edited by M F Lawrence

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sgchn40    97

2e2pemv.jpg

Box Office Bubble?

The chart shows the percentage Chines BO gains accumulated over the last 11 years including the 60% increase year to date for 2015, year 11. Also, Nasdaq's 11 year run peaking in March 2000 and ensuing dump, and Japan's Nikkei from 1979-90

Nothing draws a crowd like a crowd. Many people(sheeple) do things because others are doing them regardless of quality or value. Like a popular new chic restaurant with a sub par menu, sooner or later it will slow down and even close a few years later.

The chart above is classic thru the centuries for stock, real estate and commodity bubbles as well as booming industries. 30-90% drops happen in those markets after the biggest gain in the run. This wont happen because there wont be sellers of tickets to knock the BO down like they would a stock market, but a lack of buyers could cause a small drop and with too big a build out, some theaters will close.

Last July exploded with TF4s performance. It will be interesting to see how the monthly's look starting from that point thru this month next year. A lot of blockbusters to outperform and the trend of going to the movies for the sake of it may turn to a more fickle movie goer as the market matures.

Did US box office follow Nasdaq and other tech bubbles?

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POTUS    4,358

Did US box office follow Nasdaq and other tech bubbles?

I don't have the data, but I do know that movie going exploded in the 30s. 1927 was when sound was added but it wasn't until 1930 that it was decent quality and virtually all movies had it. the 30s are called the golden age of Hollywood. Ticket sales where the largest per capita in history. There when many factors to the rise and fall however.

 

It was new and people went because it was the new thing. The depression was on and people wanted the escape. Theaters dropped ticket prices from 35c to 25c. Average day's pay was $3 for the 60% that was employed, just 1/12th of a day's pay got you a ticket.  The unemployed managed to scrape up the 25c to go from time to time with day work or deposits on bottles(1c-2c). They might have lived in a tent and could get a free meal standing on a bread or soup line then go to the movies with the spare change in their pocket.

 

A global event ended that. WW2. 10% of the nation went off to war and the other 90% got busy working and picking up the slack at home as there were less sons and husbands around. Sales dropped obviously. However, after the war, sales did not recover. The novelty had worn off and they were tired of the same old movies being made.

 

Hollywood made changes. More serious dramas, on location shoots and when TV came along in 51, they invented widescreen format for epic films, used color more often and used method actors(Brando/James Dean) to bring in more realism for other films. Still ticket sales were never the same.

 

So there were many factors at play; depression, war, tv, that caused the rise and fall of admissions but I think it was the novelty in the first 10 years of sound that played the part that made it so huge

 

China has been exploding for 12 years. Many people have just started to go.  some for a few years and some for 10 years  or more. It is new for most and that is part of the admissions explosion, along with the expanding economy, better quality films available and theater built to show them. So what will weigh more in the years to come. addition of new movie goers with further expansion or loss of older ones. With better internet connections will they pirate more? Have other things to stream/watch on the internet  like we do? Will they start to become more patient for the secondary market and save money?

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sgchn40    97

Indeed, my hunch is that the boom will continue in the smaller cities for a while longer, until ppl find a better way to spend their cash :) but overall, the market should have some more leg. Next year will be interesting.

Things happen so quickly in China actually. Have you seen the charts for Shanghai Stock exchange in the past two weeks for example. So boom and bust is not unexpected. If I am not wrong though, the box office in U.S. has been on an upward trajectory on the whole for the last 40 years, with no visible prolong slump.

I would say that internet and China's ever expanding transportation network are redistributing wealth in unpredecented manner. Alibaba and other such firms are allowing villages and towns to participate in economic growth. Does that translate to more people in less "prosperous" cities going to movies? We shall see.

As you are predicting single digit growth next year, it will be very interesting to see if it is indeed true.

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POTUS    4,358

Indeed, my hunch is that the boom will continue in the smaller cities for a while longer, until ppl find a better way to spend their cash :) but overall, the market should have some more leg. Next year will be interesting.

Things happen so quickly in China actually. Have you seen the charts for Shanghai Stock exchange in the past two weeks for example. So boom and bust is not unexpected. If I am not wrong though, the box office in U.S. has been on an upward trajectory on the whole for the last 40 years, with no visible prolong slump.

I would say that internet and China's ever expanding transportation network are redistributing wealth in unpredecented manner. Alibaba and other such firms are allowing villages and towns to participate in economic growth. Does that translate to more people in less "prosperous" cities going to movies? We shall see.

As you are predicting single digit growth next year, it will be very interesting to see if it is indeed true.

 

There has been virtually no growth in 30 years(don't have data for 40), only 5% more admissions with the countries population growing by 30%   The vcr became widespread in 84. They shortened the tape release to under a year a few years later, then to less than 6 months and DVD players were wide spread by 2000. Nothing has gotten close to titanics admissions(the last top ten admission since 84) since the quicker secondary market release. Internet and piracy has also played a part since then.

 

The secondary market will improve in china and hurt the theaters. Its a boom year so far, if it keeps up I would be surprised if next year beats by more than single digits. Once the trend of big growth slows, everything changes. Itll still expand into new markets but will have many factors working against it in established ones. I think the legs get it close to 8B, then we'll see single digit, positive or maybe negative.

 

Shanghai index is looking like a bubble all right. POP!

 

 

Year Total

Gross*

Change Tickets

Sold

Change # of

Movies

Total

Screens

Avg.

Ticket

Price

Avg.

Cost^

#1 Movie
2015 $4,326.8 - 532.9 - 263 - $8.12 - Avengers: Age of Ultron
2014 $10,360.6 -5.2% 1,268.1 -5.6% 697 - $8.17 - American Sniper
2013 $10,923.6 +0.8% 1,343.6 -1.3% 687 - $8.13 - Catching Fire
2012 $10,837.4 +6.5% 1,361.5 +6.1% 665 - $7.96 - The Avengers
2011 $10,174.3 -3.7% 1,283.0 -4.2% 602 - $7.93 - Harry Potter / Deathly Hallows (P2)
2010 $10,565.6 -0.3% 1,339.1 -5.2% 536 - $7.89 - Toy Story 3
2009 $10,595.5 +10.0% 1,412.7 +5.3% 521 - $7.50 - Avatar
2008 $9,630.7 -0.3% 1,341.3 -4.5% 608 - $7.18 - The Dark Knight
2007 $9,663.8 +4.9% 1,404.6 -0.1% 631 - $6.88 - Spider-Man 3
2006 $9,209.5 +4.2% 1,406.0 +2.0% 608 - $6.55 - Dead Man's Chest
2005 $8,840.5 -5.8% 1,379.2 -8.7% 547 - $6.41 - Revenge of the Sith
2004 $9,380.5 +1.5% 1,510.5 -1.4% 551 - $6.21 - Shrek 2
2003 $9,239.7 +0.9% 1,532.3 -2.8% 506 - $6.03 $63.8 Return of the King
2002 $9,155.0 +8.8% 1,575.7 +6.0% 479 35,592 $5.81 $58.8 Spider-Man
2001 $8,412.5 +9.8% 1,487.3 +4.7% 482 36,764 $5.66 $47.7 Harry Potter / Sorcerer's Stone
2000 $7,661.0 +2.9% 1,420.8 -3.0% 478 37,396 $5.39 $54.8 The Grinch
1999 $7,448.0 +7.2% 1,465.2 -1.1% 461 37,185 $5.08 $51.5 The Phantom Menace
1998 $6,949.0 +9.2% 1,480.7 +6.7% 509 34,186 $4.69 $52.7 Saving Private Ryan
1997 $6,365.9 +7.7% 1,387.7 +3.7% 510 31,640 $4.59 $53.4 Titanic
1996 $5,911.5 +7.6% 1,338.6 +6.0% 471 29,690 $4.42 $39.8 Independence Day
1995 $5,493.5 +1.8% 1,262.6 -2.3% 411 27,805 $4.35 $36.4 Toy Story
1994 $5,396.2 +4.7% 1,291.7 +3.8% 453 26,586 $4.18 $34.3 Forrest Gump
1993 $5,154.2 +5.8% 1,244.0 +6.0% 462 25,737 $4.14 $29.9 Jurassic Park
1992 $4,871.0 +1.4% 1,173.2 +2.9% 480 25,105 $4.15 $28.9 Aladdin
1991 $4,803.2 -4.4% 1,140.6 -4.0% 458 24,570 $4.21 $26.1 Terminator 2
1990 $5,021.8 -0.2% 1,188.6 -5.9% 410 23,689 $4.23 $26.8 Home Alone
1989 $5,033.4 +12.9% 1,262.8 +16.4% 502 23,132 $3.97 $23.5 Batman
1988 $4,458.4 +4.8% 1,084.8 -0.3% 510 23,234 $4.11 $18.1 Rain Man
1987 $4,252.9 +12.6% 1,088.5 +7.0% 509 23,555 $3.91 $20.1 Three Men and a Baby
1986 $3,778.0 +0.8% 1,017.2 -3.7% 451 22,765 $3.71 $17.5 Top Gun
1985 $3,749.2 -7.0% 1,056.1 -11.9% 470 21,147 $3.55 $16.8 Back to the Future
1984 $4,031.0 +7.0% 1,199.0 +0.2% 536 20,200 $3.36 $14.4 Beverly Hills

 

Edited by M F Lawrence

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