What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

[Olive]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Zootopia 2, released in 2022, will be the first movie to make the equivalent of $1 billion in China.

Hey, it could happen.

Billion movie won't need that long to happen 

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Olive said:

Billion movie won't need that long to happen 

Yeah, I guess that's right. The Mermaid came surprisingly close.

[jiangsen]

14 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Yeah, I guess that's right. The Mermaid came surprisingly close.

The Mermaid came nowhere close to grossing $1B

[cannastop]

Just now, jiangsen said:

The Mermaid came nowhere close to grossing $1B

It got more than halfway there. That's quite an accomplishment. Given the right movie, and the growth rates, $1 billion is more plausible than I thought.

[POTUS 2020]

9 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

I know I'm late but whatever. I predict a 10.3% increase over last year.

 

It seems like growth is slowing down and I'm not sure anymore that China will pass DOM this decade. I've also noticed that the Chinese GDP last year was $10.36 thousand billion while the Box office was $6.77 billion, while NA's GDP (US + CAN) was $19.21 thousand billion with a BO worth $11.1 billion. That means that China's BO was worth .065% of the GDP while NA's BO represented 0.058% of the GDP. In fact, almost every major country in the World has a lower BO:GDP ratio than China with the exception of South Korea (at around 0.1%). This makes me think that China's Box office will soon reach its ceiling. It doesn't seem possible for the BO to sustain 25%+ yearly increments while the GDP only increases 5-7% (or possibly even less given the latest speculations). So I think that either ticket prices will be lowered or cinema attendance will hit a wall. In both scenarios, the BO will not grow by much.

Finally, someone sees the financial light!

With April down 24% and July possibly being another big down month, we will see the yearly percentage increase drop dramatically.

 

Edited May 4, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Lihongkim]

6 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Finally, someone sees the financial light!

With April down 24% and July possibly being another big down month, we will see the yearly percentage increase drop dramatically.

 

Talking about July, 

Here is some notable movie releases in July :

 

July. 8   : Cold War 2  /Police

              Big Fish  /animated

July. 15 : Super Bodyguard  /Kung Fu

              For A Few Bullets  /action-comedy

              Tik Tok  /Crime-thriller

July.22  : Skiptrace  /action-comedy

July.29  : League of Gods  /Fantasy

 

L.O.R.D moved to Oct. golden week. Some notable movies don't give release date yet. There are :

 

The Lost Tomb  /mystery 

A Chinese Odyssey 3  /fantasy

So Young 2  /youth

Sword Master  /wuxia

Call of Heroes  /action

Mekong Operation  /crime

The Waste Times  /comedy

 

All of them plan for summer release, June-July-August. But June & late August is full of big HLD, so I guess most of them will pick July release. If not, July will be the next April. 

Now, just wait to see those movies release date . Anyway, none of them will match Monster Hunt. Even JBM number is doubtful. But be more optimistic (-: some movies will give us big surprise... & don't forget last year no one expected Monster Hunt to broke out. 

 

[peludo]

9 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

Talking about July, 

Here is some notable movie releases in July :

 

July. 8   : Cold War 2  /Police

              Big Fish  /animated

July. 15 : Super Bodyguard  /Kung Fu

              For A Few Bullets  /action-comedy

              Tik Tok  /Crime-thriller

July.22  : Skiptrace  /action-comedy

July.29  : League of Gods  /Fantasy

 

L.O.R.D moved to Oct. golden week. Some notable movies don't give release date yet. There are :

 

The Lost Tomb  /mystery 

A Chinese Odyssey 3  /fantasy

So Young 2  /youth

Sword Master  /wuxia

Call of Heroes  /action

Mekong Operation  /crime

The Waste Times  /comedy

 

All of them plan for summer release, June-July-August. But June & late August is full of big HLD, so I guess most of them will pick July release. If not, July will be the next April. 

Now, just wait to see those movies release date . Anyway, none of them will match Monster Hunt. Even JBM number is doubtful. But be more optimistic (-: some movies will give us big surprise... & don't forget last year no one expected Monster Hunt to broke out. 

 

What do you expect for these local films?

[Agafin]

On 27/7/2015 at 8:29 PM, Cynosure said:

It's insane how just a few years after surpassing the NA box office China will completely leave it in the dust. By 2020 it will probably be around twice as big and with still enormous growth potential.

 

Do you still believe this?

[Cynosure]

Twice as big, no. Leave it in the dust, yes.

[Agafin]

^So your assurance has decreased (ever so slightly) from a year ago. I have the impression that this quote might end up being prophetic in the long run:

 

On 27/7/2015 at 1:51 AM, No Prisoners said:

LOL. Thats exactly what I heard from everyone about nasdaq in march 2000 and that was the exact end of the 20 year run and collapse ensued. I have read enthusiastic comments like this from 20 different market in the last 300 years, and they all collapsed soon there after. Shanghai after having a huge run is already dumping.

 

September 1929. Joe Kennedy, JFK's father, was getting his shoes shines when boy said to him, "Market is doing great Mr Kennedy, I bought my first stock last and am making money. There is no end in sight!". Kennedy called his broker and sold everything. Then he sold short. He said "when the shoe shine boy is in, everybody is in, and it time to get out" the market crashed 2 months later.

 

Warren Buffet. "when everybody is on board and the optimism is at all time highs, pick the opposite direction"

 

I think this BO run is a good reflection of the Chinese economic boom and market This 50% pop, bigger than any before, is just like Shanghai's recent 100% run, which has just collapsed.

 

How to make money on this? Shanghai bounced 15% off a huge fall then crashed again. next 10-20% bounce. Buy put options. itll keep happening. Just look at nasdaq 2000-2002 and Japan in the early 90's. Or buy put options on a movie studio, if they are public, right after Chinese new year.

 

[fastclock]

Nice summary about China box office in 2016:

http://chinafilminsider.com/china-box-office-april-gross-pulled-down-24-weak-film-crop/

 

2016 Box Office – North America vs. China

Month	North America (USD)	China (USD)
January	$1,037,630,000	$583,400,000
February	$797,910,000	$1,048,000,000
March	$948,560,000	$580,167,000
April	$698,830,000	$480,000,000
Total	$3,482,930,000	$2,691,567,000

[cannastop]

Here's a possibility I haven't seen suggested. What if the Yuan Renminbi devalues significantly? Like perhaps a 30% drop against the USD. Wouldn't that make these aspirations of a bigger box office hit that much harder?

Edited May 5, 2016 by cannastop

[Lihongkim]

14 hours ago, peludo said:

What do you expect for these local films?

I'm thinking how should I answer this question. I have never made any prediction here. I feel nervous. Lol. 

 

I guess 10 big name movies will release in July (now there is 7 in the list). The thing is how big they are?

I will go with the average 500m/movie, so 500m x 10 = 5B

Some movies won't reach 500M but some will double it. But if there is no more movie pick July release, the terrible thing will happen in July.

 

Sword Master just announced August.9. July still is in trouble. 

 

 

 

[POTUS 2020]

43 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

I'm thinking how should I answer this question. I have never made any prediction here. I feel nervous. Lol. 

 

I guess 10 big name movies will release in July (now there is 7 in the list). The thing is how big they are?

I will go with the average 500m/movie, so 500m x 10 = 5B

Some movies won't reach 500M but some will double it. But if there is no more movie pick July release, the terrible thing will happen in July.

 

Sword Master just announced August.9. July still is in trouble. 

 

 

 

Outright predictions long before release are difficult. None should be determined "laughable"

[POTUS 2020]

1 hour ago, cannastop said:

Here's a possibility I haven't seen suggested. What if the Yuan Renminbi devalues significantly? Like perhaps a 30% drop against the USD. Wouldn't that make these aspirations of a bigger box office hit that much harder?

I have mentioned currency in this thread as one of the reasons for CBO to have slower growth in dollars. The yuan was 8.5 to $1 10 years ago.

If the currency stayed flat then last year would have been close to $5b instead of near $7B.

It's devalued 5% this year compared to the first 7 months last year. 5% currency adjustment decreases annual growth by 6% on a 25% increase in yuan.  It's only a 19% gain in dollars when reported internationally. 

Many currency anal lists are call for a 10% or more correction from here. CBO will have to grow with 11% just to offset that loss

[POTUS 2020]

9 hours ago, Agafin said:

^So your assurance has decreased (ever so slightly) from a year ago. I have the impression that this quote might end up being prophetic in the long run:

 

 

Also, shanghai did bounce 20% then tanked again since that post.  One more dump cometh this summer to recheck the low.

[peludo]

4 hours ago, Lihongkim said:

I'm thinking how should I answer this question. I have never made any prediction here. I feel nervous. Lol. 

 

I guess 10 big name movies will release in July (now there is 7 in the list). The thing is how big they are?

I will go with the average 500m/movie, so 500m x 10 = 5B

Some movies won't reach 500M but some will double it. But if there is no more movie pick July release, the terrible thing will happen in July.

 

Sword Master just announced August.9. July still is in trouble. 

 

 

 

Don't feel nervous . I know that Chinese market is difficult to predict, specially being so conditioned with release dates changes. I just feel curious because I know nothing about Chinese cinema and I do not know if among the titles you said there is any potential blockbuster. That's all  

[POTUS 2020]

April was down 24%, 3.1B down from 4.1B

In dollars it was down 28%  $475m from $660m due to XR.

 

With CA3 underperforming may is looking to be down slightly to flat. XR will cause a 5% decrease from that total. 

 

Last June had JW and SA breakout and make 2B of the months 3.2B. If XM and ID4 can do well the month could be up with help from local films.

 

Over all though the quarter will be down for the first time in more than 10 years. Could be cl.ose to 5% in yuan.  At least 10%, in dollars. 

That will put the year at +20-25% at the end of June. Under 20% in dollars

 

July will be a tough month to beat as well and next quarter could off to another rough time start like in april.

 

The year is shaping up to be less than +20% at or under $8B.

 

China passing Dom in 2017 is not likely to happen now. 19% of members polled chose that year.

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by No Prisoners

[keysersoze123]

2017 looks unlikely considering hollywood movies are slowing down. But I can see this happening by 2020 driven mostly by local blockbusters. As long as theater expansion is still on the BO has good growth potential along with smaller cities helping further growth. Mermaid's run has clearly shown how much potential there is to this market.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

I wont be surprised if Avatar 2 makes "just" 300m whenever it is released. I am sure predictions would be 1B+ for sure.