What Year Will China Pass Domestic?

[POTUS 2020]

2 hours ago, Olive said:

China has rural theaters chain aslo, but not counted to the total BO.

For example, nearly 10M screening took place in rural places in 2016.

Why don't they count those receipts?

[POTUS 2020]

55 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

still overall admissions are low relative to the population. Is it bcos its too expensive or access to multiplexes is missing outside large cities?

at $5 per ticket in the city(30% higher than domestic, relative to GDP per capita) , I assume its too expensive for many low income earners in urban areas.  In india a majority make $80-$100 per month and attend <$1 movies. Olive said they have rural theaters that I assume are cheap but aren't accounted for. 10m screenings in the countryside could account for 200-300m tickets. I think china could get to 2b in tickets like india if they count rural sales and more expansion, but the average price nationwide could drop to $4 bringing the total to $8b

Edited January 5, 2017 by POTUS

[Olive]

12 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Why don't they count those receipts?

Many of them are screened in the open air, hard to count accurately.

[POTUS 2020]

15% 0f the poll had CBO passing Domestic by 2017. 72% polled had it by 2020 or earlier, which will need a 15% average annual increase. Jan-Feb is virtually flat YoY with the 5% service fee now accounted for and 2017 is on course for a third consecutive $7B~ year. 2017 started the year with 69% more screens(40,000) than 2015 had(23,600).

 

	2013	2014		2015		2016		2017
Jan	1650	1920	+16.4%	2600	+35.4%	3900	+50.0%	4850	+24.4%
Feb	2120	3240	+52.8%	4180	+29.0%	6900	+65.1%	6030	-12.6%
Mar	1390	1620	+16.5%	2960	+82.7%	3810	+28.7%
Apr	1790	1770	-1.1%	4090	+131.1%	3050	-25.4%
May	2130	2220	+4.2%	3220	+45.0%	3045	-5.4%
Jun	1820	2720	+49.5%	3310	+21.7%	3860	+16.6%
Jul	1790	3610	+101.7%	5525	+53.0%	4490	-18.7%
Aug	2320	2550	+9.9%	3650	+43.1%	4110	+12.6%
Sep	1300	1800	+38.5%	3425	+90.3%	2300	-32.8%
Oct	1600	2760	+72.5%	4225	+53.1%	3500	-17.2%
Nov	1560	2300	+47.4%	2680	+16.5%	2585	-3.5%
Dec	2200	2460	+11.8%	4220	+71.5%	4150	-1.7%
YTD	19,470	28,970	+48.8%	44,085	+52.2%	45,700	+3.7%	10,880
($M)		$4,665		$7,020	+50.5%	$6,883	-2.0%	$1,581
					Jan-Feb	10,800	Jan-Feb	10,880	+0.7%
						$1,656		$1,581	-4.5%

Edited March 4, 2017 by POTUS

[POTUS 2020]

Should they build another 9000 screens, the annual tickets p/screen average will drop to a low, 20% below its 12 year average of 36.5k p/screen. We'll probably see discounting to sell more snacks. I smell a discount Tuesday coming.

	Screens	% Inc	Adm(m)	Adm Inc	Adm P/Sc	BO $M	% Inc	Tix Ave
2003						125
2004						187	49.6%
2005	4400		157		35682	250	33.7%	$1.59
2006	4700	6.8%	176	12.1%	37447	342	36.8%	$1.94
2007	5600	19.1%	195	10.8%	34821	438	28.1%	$2.25
2008	5700	1.8%	209	7.2%	36667	586	33.8%	$2.80
2009	6300	10.5%	263	25.8%	41746	873	49.0%	$3.32
2010	7800	23.8%	290	10.3%	37179	1452	66.3%	$5.01
2011	9200	17.9%	370	27.6%	40217	1929	32.9%	$5.21
2012	14000	52.2%	462	24.9%	33000	2586	34.1%	$5.60
2013	18100	29.3%	612	32.5%	33812	3400	31.5%	$5.56
2014	23600	30.4%	830	35.6%	35169	4665	37.2%	$5.62
2015	31500	33.5%	1215	46.4%	38571	7020	50.5%	$5.78
2016	41179	30.7%	1372	12.9%	33318	6883	-2.0%	$5.02
2017 est	50000	21.4%	1450	5.7%	29000	7000	1.7%	$4.83
2005-16 % Increase	836%	23%	774%	22%	36541	2653%	36%	342%
		Average		Average	Average		Average

Edited March 4, 2017 by POTUS

[POTUS 2020]

The year is down even with several movies overperforming. The Mid sized movies are going to have to pick it up.

FF8 will get the year in the black.  Funny note. FF7s big BO caused the largest monthly YoY drop in a decade the following April at -26%. FF8 will make this April be the first 25%+ increase since last March. January was close but CNY came early.

Analysts have said last year was a hiccup and that after 12 years of 30% annual growth, that they are now expecting 15% which doesn't seem to be happening. They need to look at my BO/GDP ratio. 

 

The Growth stopped cold last year after March and CNY releases finished. It looks like that is the fiscal year for BO.   When comparing April15- March to April 16-March 17, its a 7% drop YoY

 

	2013	2014		2015		2016		2017
Jan	1650	1920	+16.4%	2600	+35.4%	3900	+50.0%	4850	+24.4%
Feb	2120	3240	+52.8%	4180	+29.0%	6900	+65.1%	6030	-12.6%
Mar	1390	1620	+16.5%	2960	+82.7%	3810	+28.7%	3370	-11.5%
Apr	1790	1770	-1.1%	4090	+131.1%	3050	-25.4%
May	2130	2220	+4.2%	3220	+45.0%	3045	-5.4%
Jun	1820	2720	+49.5%	3310	+21.7%	3860	+16.6%
Jul	1790	3610	+101.7%	5525	+53.0%	4490	-18.7%
Aug	2320	2550	+9.9%	3650	+43.1%	4110	+12.6%
Sep	1300	1800	+38.5%	3425	+90.3%	2300	-32.8%
Oct	1600	2760	+72.5%	4225	+53.1%	3500	-17.2%
Nov	1560	2300	+47.4%	2680	+16.5%	2585	-3.5%
Dec	2200	2460	+11.8%	4220	+71.5%	4150	-1.7%
YTD	19,470	28,970	+48.8%	44,085	+52.2%	45,700	+3.7%	14,250
($M)		$4,665		$7,020	+50.5%	$6,883	-2.0%	$2,071
					Jan-Mar	14,610	Jan-Mar	14,250	-2.5%
						$2,241		$2,068	-7.7%
							- Fee	13537.5	-7.3%
							- Fee	$1,964.80	-12.3%

 

 

[keysersoze123]

last year the domestic movies disappointed big time after mermaid. That needs to change for growth to happen. We need to see at least Top 10 movies making 1.5/2B to ensure growth. Just an odd movie like mermaid, F8 or TF5 aint gonna help.

 

I think if screen growth continuous over next 2-3 years I see some of the restrictions like(stopping hollywood movies over big holidays/summer, 30 day run) going away or relaxed. That will definitely lead to bigger growth.

 

I think it will take 5 years minimum for china to beat domestic.

[Agafin]

5 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

 

I think if screen growth continuous over next 2-3 years I see some of the restrictions like(stopping hollywood movies over big holidays/summer, 30 day run) going away or relaxed. That will definitely lead to bigger growth.

 

 

There is basically nothing to support that any of those restrictions affect growth though, more like the opposite::

 

-Screen growth since 2015 has had no effect on Box office. Attendance per screen has simply been dropping;

-There was basically no Summer blackout period last year. I remember Tarzan being scheduled in the middle of summer;

- The 30 day limit seems to have been highly relaxed. Several movies last year where extended (more than ever) and this had little impact because China is an inherently front loaded market. Even Zootopia only added like 10% to its gross following the extension.

-The same is true for the 34 imported movie limit.Just like the blackout, that law was hardly enforced. Far more were released last year (there was a HR article mentioning 40+ or something). That had little impact on box office.

 

Relative to GDP, the Chinese already spend more on movie tickets than any country besides SK so I doubt that there's anything that can be done to speed up BO growth.

[keysersoze123]

1 hour ago, Agafin said:

 

There is basically nothing to support that any of those restrictions affect growth though, more like the opposite::

 

-Screen growth since 2015 has had no effect on Box office. Attendance per screen has simply been dropping;

-There was basically no Summer blackout period last year. I remember Tarzan being scheduled in the middle of summer;

- The 30 day limit seems to have been highly relaxed. Several movies last year where extended (more than ever) and this had little impact because China is an inherently front loaded market. Even Zootopia only added like 10% to its gross following the extension.

-The same is true for the 34 imported movie limit.Just like the blackout, that law was hardly enforced. Far more were released last year (there was a HR article mentioning 40+ or something). That had little impact on box office.

 

Relative to GDP, the Chinese already spend more on movie tickets than any country besides SK so I doubt that there's anything that can be done to speed up BO growth.

 

Movies tend to lose screens too fast. Very rarely movies have > 2x multi of OW. if the screen count is significantly big I definitely see movies having better legs.

 

On extension to 30-day run seem to be given only to CGI flicks. I want to see movies like FF getting open market run holding showtimes based on demand.

 

Only blackout can be considered to be over only when we see big movies opening on prime weekends. Like a SW movie day and date with domestic in december, big hollywood summer movies in July and CNY etc. Just a random CGI or smaller action movies releasing in blackout period dont count.

[TomCruiseTop]

Is there any indication that special cases might get longer runs in the future? e.g. Is it possible that Avatar 2 gets a longer release window? If that's the case does it mean that 2020 is almost a lock for the year that China becomes domestic by default? 

[IronJimbo]

8 minutes ago, JamesCameronScholar said:

Is there any indication that special cases might get longer runs in the future? e.g. Is it possible that Avatar 2 gets a longer release window? If that's the case does it mean that 2020 is almost a lock for the year that China becomes domestic by default? 

Well Avatar 2 is still making a shit load of money in US&Canada so it's still up to the other films.

[PPZVGOS]

I think that China overtaking North America is bound to happen somewhere between 2019 & 2020. I wonder whether Greater China (PRC, Taiwan, Hong-Kong) has already overtaken the US (excluding Canada) 

 

https://www.screendaily.com/news/china-box-office-monster-hunt-2-powers-weekend-to-global-record/5126819.article

[Barnack]

3 hours ago, PPZVGOS said:

overtaken the US (excluding Canada) 

US box office last year was 10.51b.

 

Hong Kong and Taiwan is around what 600-650m a Year, China was at 7.5b last year.

 

If USA stay about the same would need around 30-32% China jump, maybe a bit too much, but 2019 look really possible.

 

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Barnack

[PPZVGOS]

2 hours ago, Barnack said:

US box office last year was 10.51b.

 

Hong Kong and Taiwan is around what 600-650m a Year, China was at 7.5b last year.

 

If USA stay about the same would need around 30-32% China jump, maybe a bit too much, but 2019 look really possible.

 

 

Actually, China's BO last year was $8.6B with the then FX rate. With the current one, it would be around $8.9B. Canada is around 10% of NA BO, which means that the US BO is around $9.4B. Therefore, Greater China is probably already ahead of the US in terms of BO.

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/asia/china-box-office-expands-by-2-billion-in-2017-1202650515/

Edited February 21, 2018 by PPZVGOS

[Barnack]

5 minutes ago, PPZVGOS said:

Actually, China's BO last year was $8.6B with the then FX rate. With the current one, it would be around $8.9B. Canada is around 10% of NA BO, which means that the US BO is around $9.4B. Therefore, Greater China is probably already ahead of the US in terms of BO.

 

http://variety.com/2017/film/asia/china-box-office-expands-by-2-billion-in-2017-1202650515/

I have read top 7.5B record in 2017, has  making 7.5B in 2017 sorry.

 

The US bo was 10.51b according to DEG: Digital Entertainment Group, the domestic was 11,065.6

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/

http://deadline.com/2018/01/u-s-home-entertainment-spending-rises-to-20-5-billion-1202239252/

 

8.9b would not need a big jump.

[PPZVGOS]

8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I have read top 7.5B record in 2017, has  making 7.5B in 2017 sorry.

 

The US bo was 10.51b according to DEG: Digital Entertainment Group, the domestic was 11,065.6

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/yearly/

http://deadline.com/2018/01/u-s-home-entertainment-spending-rises-to-20-5-billion-1202239252/

 

8.9b would not need a big jump.

Oh, I thought that 10.5B was the North American total. So Canada is just $500m? I thought it was more. And from what I see, 2017 was down from 2016 ($11.377B) 

 

I am guessing that this year, both China and North America are way ahead from 2017 YTD. 

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, PPZVGOS said:

Oh, I thought that 10.5B was the North American total. So Canada is just $500m? I thought it was more. And from what I see, 2017 was down from 2016 ($11.377B) 

 

I thought Canada was more 600-700m also, but Canada to USD is low since 2014:

 

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/canada-box-office-revenue-rises-853273

 

Was 700m in 2015, so it does feel low at 500m.

 

31 Dec 2009  0.880059

31 Dec 2010  0.970701

31 Dec 2011  1.011464

31 Dec 2012  1.00023

31 Dec 2013  0.971164

31 Dec 2014  0.905912

31 Dec 2015  0.782992

31 Dec 2016  0.755107

31 Dec 2017  0.771282

20 Feb 2018  0.802066

 

 

Figure are not necessarily exact I imagine.

[peludo]

Mixing the top 6 films in USA and China during last 12 months we have this (I have used today ER 6.34):

 

1. Wolf Warrior 2 (China): $896m

2. Black Panther (USA): $650m (estimated)

3. The Last Jedi (USA): $620m (estimated)

4. Operation Red Sea (China): $550m (estimated)

5. Detective Chinatown 2 (China): $525m (estimated)

6. Beauty & the Beast (USA): $504m

7. Furious 8 (China): $421m

8. Wonder Woman (USA): $412m

9. Jumanji (USA): $410m (estimated)

10. Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (USA): $390m

11. Monster Hunt 2 (China): $360m (estimated)

12. Never say die (China): $347m

 

The estimations for Chinese films are higher in Maoyan, but I do not know if they will go so high (ORS 600, DC2 544, MH2 373). Correct me if I am wrong with those estimations.

 

The 6 USA films adds $2.986b

The 6 China films adds $3.099b

It seems that China is starting to have the same amount of enormous films than USA. But it still has a lower amount of films with more normal grosses.

[Avatree]

China had 4 movies over $300M last year. Two months into 2017 it already has 3.

[peludo]

6 minutes ago, Treeing Me Apart said:

China had 4 movies over $300M last year. Two months into 2017 it already has 3.

And China had 2 movies over $400m and 1 over $500m. Well, 2 out of those 3 which are over $300m are already at $400m and both will probably reach $500m.

 

To enter into top 10 in USA (after Black Panther) will be needed $505m (Beauty & the Beast). Right now in China is needed $312m (Transformers 4) to be a top 10. One year ago it was needed $230m (Warcraft). Warcraft ranks today #18.

 

I do not know if people who know the Chinese market and local films can tell us if there will be released along this year any other potential +$300m (among HLW films I just see JW2 and, maybe, Pacific Rim with that potential).