CAYOM Y10: Part 2- Predictions

[4815162342]

Hey Numbers, any clue when the actuals are going to start coming in? I thought you were going to start working on them this weekend. Or are you just waiting for people to finish up reviews/predicts? Speaking of, here are my March predicts.

 

That is correct. I said I would start working on them.

 

I said in another thread I would start releasing them next weekend.

Edited August 10, 2015 by 4815162342

[4815162342]

Hey Ruk, if you intend to do April predictions, go ahead and do them when you have time.

[rukaio101]

Almost forgot I never finished April. Oh well. Last second predicts away!

 

April 3-5

 

Can't say my hopes are strongest for Russian Roulette. The action market has already been fairly bled dry this trimester and a tamer PG-13 entry isn't likely to win over any fans, especially sandwiched between E.S.P and Crusader, which are far more acclaimed and palatable options for younger and older audiences respectively.

 

Russian Roulette- $18.4m/$49.5m

 

 

April 10-12

 

Crusader is likely to be one of the bigger wildcards this tri. It's a hard-R period movie with Liam Neeson and plenty to set it apart from its competition. Combined with the good reviews it's been getting, a $30m+ OW seems fairly likely. Do I think it will make Blank-fuckery Numbers Theory numbers though? It's possible, but I don't think so. It's a much more contemplative affair than normal Liam Neeson fare and that may cut into its core audience a bit. It'll still probably make a strong total though, especially with some good legs.

 

As for Scrooge McDuck, the movie's not even been out a year, comes out two weeks after the biggest animated family movie of the tri, doesn't have an Academy Award win to justify a re-release, is probably already out on DVD and, quite frankly, doesn't really have much that an IMAX re-release is likely to add. Forget $10m+ OW, I'd say it's lucky if it manages to crawl its way into the top 5.

 

Crusader- $45.6m/$152.3m

Scrooge McDuck- $4.2m/$13.4m

 

 

April 17-19

 

I don't know who's been smoking what to come up with these sub $30m Ciaphias Cain OW numbers. The movie is one of the very few big-budget blockbusters this tri and the only major Sci-fi movie (and Sci-fi blockbusters are very big business in CAYOM land). Combined with the surprisingly good reviews it's been getting, and I'd call $40m the floor at the very least. Probably higher.

 

Daisy Lemonade, on the other hand, is going to get crushed. Between E.S.P releasing a few weeks earlier and Timmy's amazing legs, it doesn't really have much of a hope, especially combined with lukewarm reviews.

 

Ciaphas Cain- $52.4m/$160.2m

Daisy Lemonade- $8.2m/$22.4m

 

 

April 24-26

 

Weirdly, while I think most people have under-predicted CC, I also think they've kinda overpredicted Kensington. I don't have the highest of expectations for that film. Standing between Ciaphas Cain and the inevitable May opening blockbuster probably wasn't the brightest of moves in hindsight. Still, both Greengrass and its existence as a thriller rather than straight action will probably help it claw out enough of a niche for itself that it won't flop. I could see its legs being pretty solid as well.

 

As for MST3K, I've made it entirely clear that I'm doing this series entirely for fun, rather than profit. And its budget is low enough that it's basically certain to break even. So I'm not at all fussed as to where it lands.

 

Kensington- $13.6m/$40.1m

MST3K- Hell if I know

[cookie]

The Scrooge McDuck re-release really only exists and came out now for two reasons: I made the call to delay my two animated tentpoles and at the time no other animated film had been posted (I wasn't sure if you were going to post E.S.P Ruk since it was like a day or two before the deadline). I originally intended to maybe save it for next year a few months before the sequel comes out, but given the circumstances I figured "eh whatever, might as well". Then when I noticed that E.S.P grabbed that late March date it was too late change the date, so I just rolled with it.

[4815162342]

what did MST3K do last time around?

[Rorschach]

what did MST3K do last time around?

4.4 m/12.7m

[4815162342]

bump

[Ethan Hunt]

May

1-3

Run and Gun 2-61/140

8-10

45-Seconds of Glory- 31/108

On The Record-12/43

15-17

Attack of the Movies- 22/57

22-24/25

Monster Hunter- 87/106/251

City Launcher/World Builder- 21/28/69

Shia LaBeouf the Movie- 44/54/102

29-31

Runaway Man- 15/37

June

5-7

Dresden Files: Fool Moon- 59/171

All Kinds of Bull- 23/78

12-14

The Lazy River Squad- 16/45

19-21

The Day of Tentacle- 28/92

Pokémon Mystery Dungeon- 78/236

28-30

The Throne of Fire

51/137

Edited September 27, 2015 by Ethan Hunt

[department store basement]

I'll do mine.

 

May 1-3

The first Run & Gun did very well and it'll probably do a bit better this time as it's at the beginning of summer. 55m/121m

 

May 8-10

Forty-Five Seconds doesn't have the faith-based following of Unbroken but Jesse Owens is a much bigger household name than Louis Zamperini so the opening will be about the same. Legs will be worse because it's summer. 30m/95m

On the Record is based off an obscure musical, so I'm not predicting much for it. It'll break even though. 18m/47m

 

May 15-17

Attack of the Movies is the successor to Pixels but there's no Sandler this time, so it should actually perform better. 28m/82m

 

May 22-25

Monster Hunter will be the biggest movie of the summer, even with John Carter's director behind it. 75m/218m

Shia LaBeouf, despite being in 3800 theaters, will be pretty much ignored. 7m/16m

City Launcher/World Builder will be crushed by Monster Hunter. Unlike Monster Hunter it's PG so it'll have longevity, though not enough to make back its budget. 15m/54m

 

May 29-31

Runaway Man will make its budget back on its first weekend, and will have great legs thanks to its great plot. 16m/55m

 

June 5-7

I'm predicting Dresden Files 2 will do even better than the first. 53m/169m

All Kinds of Bull will do well for its budget. 19m/69m

 

June 12-14

Lazy River Squad isn't going to make much of a splash. 11m/40m

 

June 19-21

In the battle of the video game adaptations, Pokemon will prevail because it's family-friendly. 62m/208m

Day of the Tentacle won't be a slouch though. 20m/76m

 

June 26-28

The Throne of Fire will burn up the money. 62m/183m

 

July 3-5

The Parade is Independence Day-themed, so it'll do very well on its first frame then plummet afterwards, barely making back its $50m budget. Its intended audience will go to A Love Worth Killing For instead. 31m/59m (ouch!)

2 Sharkz will have better longevity compared to The Parade, though it'll make less total than what its competitor will in its first weekend. 10m/28m

 

July 10-12

A Love Worth Killing For will do a bit better than its predecessor. 49m/153m

The Girl in the Red Dress is another one that will make back its budget on its first weekend. 13m/43m

 

July 17-19

Peter and the Starcatchers is yet another Peter Pan film (and this time it's PG-13), so I can't see it making back its astronomical budget. 55m/147m

The Line targets a completely different audience, so it'll perform similarly to Peter even though it comes out on the same weekend. 54m/149m

 

July 24-26

The Pixies in the Backyard is the only family film for a month so it'll do fine. 43m/150m

Sam Smith isn't too big of a music name so it'll perform even worse than Katy Perry. 6m/22m

 

July 31-August 2

The Wedding Prey's premise is going to turn off many people. 17m/44m

I honestly have no idea how The Scarecrow will do, so this will just be a guess. 12m/32m

 

August 7-9

I also have no idea how The Departure will do. 12m/30m

 

August 14-16

My Favorite Scientist is the second of two animated movies this summer so it'll do well with families. 43m/154m

Raven Boys will do well with the YA crowd. 25m/92m

 

August 21-23

I don't know Loony Ben's budget, so this is an estimate based off its plot and actors. 12m/30m

 

August 28-30

Terminal Red, unlike the other horror movies, won't make its budget back on its first weekend, but it will in the long run. 8m/29m

Hateful Eight Redux's re-release will do okay in limited. 4m/10m

 

EDIT: Due to Rukaio's comments below I've hugely decreased my FavScientist prediction (and August predictions in general) and increased my Pokemon prediction.

Edited September 25, 2015 by department store basement

[Ezen Baklattan]

May 1: Run & Gun did pretty well, but legs weren't strong enough that I see this having a huge increase. Then again, the success of Overdrive did lift things up a bit, so I'm going to suggest a slightly better opening with slightly better legs.

 

Run & Gun 2 - $56.2m/$137.1m

 

May 8: 45 Seconds of Glory shouldn't do much better than Unbroken, which has a much bigger hook and more popular source material, not to mention Oscar buzz. It should be decent, but I wouldn't get my hopes up, especially with middling reviews so far. On The Record offers a decent amount of fun flair with Disney songs, but I'm not sure how well it'll hold audiences interest as a feature film.

 

45 Seconds of Glory - $18.5m/$61.4m

On The Record - $12.4m/$44.7m

 

May 15: Attack of the Movies doesn't have quite the catch that Pixels does, and going into one horror movie may dampen the appeal. It should still work decently as a comedy, which there aren't many of recently.

 

Attack of the Movies: $22.7m/$72.3m

 

May 22: Monster Hunter should be quite big, especially with the reputation of its studio and its star, Dwayne Johnson. Stanton's success stories in CAYOM should also be taken into account. City Launcher sounds promising on paper, but reception will be the key to whether or not it breaks out of its seemingly niche premise. And then there's that Shia LaBeouf film....no thanks.

 

Monster Hunter - $71.5m/$236.4m

City Launcher - $17.5m/$59.2m

Shia LaBeouf - $6.5m/$11.8m

 

May 29: Runaway Man, the sole release of the week, probable won't offer a whole lot in terms of inspiring content, but there's still the question of it it may still have a decent run. I'm not betting on it.

 

Runaway Man - $9.5m/$27.9m

[Ethan Hunt]

Wha... These Shia predictions are mindblowingly low

[Ezen Baklattan]

It's a 80 minute movie made up of Bizarre vignettes. I don't see how its going to have a lot of appeal.

[department store basement]

Wha... These Shia predictions are mindblowingly low

 

I can't see Shia making any more than Don Jon, which was way more mainstream and only did 8m 1st weekend and 24m total.

[4815162342]

For Pokemon, take note that the previous PCU film, Pokemon: The Champion's Gift (Year 6), did 62.37 OW/72.56 (4-Day)/160.12 DOM, opening over President's Day Weekend.

 

Now as an animated film, I suppose the multiplier would be more family/little kid influenced, but don't get carried away.

[department store basement]

For Pokemon, take note that the previous PCU film, Pokemon: The Champion's Gift (Year 6), did 62.37 OW/72.56 (4-Day)/160.12 DOM, opening over President's Day Weekend.

 

Now as an animated film, I suppose the multiplier would be more family/little kid influenced, but don't get carried away.

 

There are only two animated movies coming out this summer, and only five PG-rated movies total. Of course Pokemon's going to have a great multiplier when it's the only kid-friendly movie out until Pixies.

[Ethan Hunt]

Shia is a massive in current pop culture. Shia getting into it and making fun of himself in a self aware over the top fashion seems like the perfect bro movie that teens and the 21-24 crowd would rush out to opening weekend and would proceed to crash and burn in the following weeks

That's how I see it

Edited September 20, 2015 by Ethan Hunt

[rukaio101]

Felt like throwing in my two cents on a couple of these conversations so I quickly typed up my May predictions.

 

Also, since I didn't get to cover this below, DSB, there is zero chance My Favourite Scientist is going to outgross PMD, even if it ends up getting Inside Out level reviews. PMD is already linked to a strong and popular brand name, has a much better spot (in the prime of summer rather than the dregs of August) and has a much more renowned animation studio behind it. My Favourite Scientist will still probably do well since (I think) there are only 2 animated movies this trimester, but PMD is going to be the far stronger of the two.

 

May 1^st-3^rd

 

I can see a fairly strong increase for R&G2 here. First, it’s a sequel to both R&G and Overdrive (and sequels tend to get stronger openings anyway) and may have some curiosity as part of my attempts to create a wholly original Cinematic Universe. Second, it has a much stronger release date than R&G 1, being the summer opener and not having $170+ OW opener (and current highest grossing CAYOM film) Starcraft: Brood War coming the week after (which was the main reason for the poor legs rather than bad WOM (if I recall the reviews for the first movie were fairly positive). Third, the action competition is basically non-existent until Monster Hunter. All that adds up to a much stronger opening.

 

Legs, on the other hand, I’m not too sure about. On the one hand, the reviews are fairly mixed so far (which I’m not too surprised about since I openly admit I bollocksed up the climax) and it’s a sequel which tend to be more frontloaded. On the other hand, action audiences don’t exactly need outstanding reviews to stay interested (plus, knowing the Raid, Gareth Evans’s action directing has got to count for something) and, the real big thing here, there’s zero action competition for the next two weeks. So I can see legs ranging here from really good to a bit on the poor side. I think they’ll turn out at the very least decent though. You’d have to get Fantastic 4 level toxic WOM to miss taking advantage of those 2 weeks with no competition, especially considering it’s early summer.

 

Run & Gun 2- $64.7m/$173.4m

 

 

May 8-10

 

Usually, I’d say it’s a bit early to be releasing a biopic, but I think 45 Seconds has quite a bit going for it, being in a fairly bare month plus having plenty of appeal to minority cinemagoers (which, as Straight Outta Compton has shown, is nothing to be underestimated). While I don’t think it’ll quite do that, I could see a 42 (the film, not the number) style performance.

 

On the Record I think has its niche and will probably perform just fine among it. Don’t see much in the way of expansion outside of it though. Normally it might get some extra points for being a breath of fresh from the usual summer stuff, but there’s so little usual summer stuff here, it’s really not going to take much advantage.

 

45 Seconds- $31.4m/$108.8m

On the Record- $19.5m/$57.3m

 

 

May 15-17

 

Attack of the Movies… I’m really not sure about. I could see it ranging around the level of Sandler flicks, but I really don’t think the premise, cast or tone is going to grab the wider comedy audience. I’ll fly optimistic for now though.

 

Attack of the Movies- $25.8m/76.3m

 

 

May 22-25

 

Monster Hunter, barring a surprise breakout later, basically looks like it’s going to be the king this summer, being the only real big budget, effects-heavy, live-action blockbuster of the Summer blockbuster month (except maybe Throne of Fire). It has basically everything going for it. A prime spot, little-to-no competition, a (reasonably) bankable star, some big effects work (with plenty of money shots/moments to foster good WOM), plenty of monsters and I’m confident enough in it to think that it’ll probably get good reviews. Basically, it’s all but guaranteed to be a smash.

 

City Launcher/World Builder is fairly likely to get squashed by Monster Hunter here. Especially since it’s a Liam Neeson without any real action. And it’s hard to tell exactly what audience it’s aiming for. It’s not a kids film, it’s not an action blockbuster, it’s not particularly a drama, it’s hard to exactly who this is going to be appealing for. As it is, its prospects look pretty dismal.

 

Not quite as dismal as Shia LeBeouf: The Movie though. Seriously, Ethan? You thought this would make $40m+ OW? Most of the non-movie-obsessed GA probably barely even know who Shia LeBeouf is, let along understand most of the injokes in the film. And it’s coming a week after ‘similarly themed, but more appealing’ Attack of the Movies. I could see it grossing around the level of Movie 43, personally.

 

Monster Hunter- $94.3m/$117.8m/$246.4m

City Launcher/World Builder- $13.5m/$16.2m/$30.1m

Shia LeBeouf: The Movie: $6.2m/$7.8m/$15.2m

 

 

May 29-31

 

Runaway Man is probably going to take a serious beating for being in the shadow of Monster Hunter here. And with Dresden Files coming a week later, its legs are equally in question. As it is, maybe it’ll get lucky with good WOM, but this would’ve done better on May 8^th or 15^th.

 

Runaway Man- $10.6m/$26.2m

[cookie]

Run & Gun 2 - $57.89m

 

45 Seconds of Glory - $25.12m

On the Record - $14.65m

 

Attack of the Movies - $30.29m

 

Monster Hunter - $90.66m / $110.81m

City Launcher - $24.11m / $30.05m

Shia LeBouf: The Movie - $7.59m / $9.16m

 

Runaway Man - $11.23m

Edited September 25, 2015 by C00k13

[4815162342]

There are only two animated movies coming out this summer, and only five PG-rated movies total. Of course Pokemon's going to have a great multiplier when it's the only kid-friendly movie out until Pixies.

 

But Pokemon has a history in this game (through 3 films) as a frontloaded franchise. I am going to be taking that into account.

Edited September 20, 2015 by 4815162342

[DAJK]

Dang I dunno why but I just found this now. So would have participated if I hadn't missed the deadline by 1 day