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Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

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59 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

It was fixed in the tallies. 

 

It wasn't, you should know since you're one of the affected :P

 

Anyway, there's alt least 6-7 people who got 2k less and chas sneakily gave himself a little extra for getting The Martian 'right'.

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24 minutes ago, darkelf said:

 

It wasn't, you should know since you're one of the affected :P

 

Anyway, there's alt least 6-7 people who got 2k less and chas sneakily gave himself a little extra for getting The Martian 'right'.

My total was accurate.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, just realized he never fixed it. He also never tallied the first question of Part 2.

Edited by WrathOfHan
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MJ2's release weekend is reminding me of the SOTM from last year in which Chas was able to announce results within 2 days. It was a SOTM with 6 or so questions and +/- points increased with each question attempted. The first question was "Will MJ1 open to more than 125M" and everyone got it wrong.

 

Found it

 

 

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19 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Current SOTM 1 results (everyone except myself said total gross, I went with the weekend one):

 

Chasmmi: +10,000 (Sicario A+ (currently A but will be A+), The Walk A+, The Martian A (currently B but will become A),  Pan D)

ThatOneGuy: +8,000 (The Martian A+ (currently A but will be A+), The Walk A, Sicario B, Pan C)

WrathOfHan: +8,000 (The Walk A, Pan A, too soon to say on Martian and Sicario)

Infernus: +4,000 (The Martian A+, Sicario A, Pan C, The Walk C)

misafeco: +4,000 (The Martian A+, Pan B, Sicario B (could become A), The Walk C)

bcf26: +2,000 (abstain)

damienroc: +2,000 (abstain)

darkelf: +2,000 (The Martian A+, Sicario A+, Pan C, The Walk D)

Exxdee: +2,000 (The Martian A+, Sicario, A+, The Walk C, Pan D)

Filmovie: +2,000 (abstain)

glassfairy: +2,000 (abstain)

grey ghost: +2,000 (abstain)

Wrath: +2,000 (abstain)

Alfred: -2,000 (no response)

baumer: -2,000 (no response)

laguy03: -2,000 (no response)

The Panda: -2,000 (no response)

DAJK: -4,000 (The Martian A+,  Sicario A+ (currently A but will be A+), Pan D, The Walk D)

treeroy: -4,000 (The Martian A+, Sicario A+, Pan D, The Walk D)

MovieMan89: -6,000 (The Martian A+, Sicario B, Pan C, The Walk D)

Telemachos: -6,000 (The Martian A+, Pan B (currently C but will be B soon), Sicario C (could become B ), The Walk D)

Jajang: -10,000 (The Martian B, Sicario B, The Walk B, Pan D)

Kalo: -10,000 (The Martian A, Sicario B, Pan C, The Walk D)

Blankments: -12,000 (The Martian A (currently A+ but will be A very soon), Sicario A, Pan D, The Walk D)

sakskidz/avi: -20,000 (Sicario B, The Martian B (currently C but will become B ), Pan D, The Walk D)

kaumanggi: -24,000 (The Martian B, Sicario C, Pan D, The Walk D)

MikeKaye42: -24,000 (The Martian B (currently C but will become B ), Sicario C, Pan D, The Walk D)

 

A lot of the ones on Pan are close to adjusting up and The Martian will still fluctuate some more. If I made any mistakes let me know!

What are you predicting these films' final grosses to be for these scores?

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10 minutes ago, Infernus said:

What are you predicting these films' final grosses to be for these scores?

The Walk is basically done so the scores are probably final. Pan might still have 1-2M left and Sicario should have about 3-5M left. 220M seems to be the floor for The Martian, I'm predicting a 235M finish.

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31 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Walk is basically done so the scores are probably final. Pan might still have 1-2M left and Sicario should have about 3-5M left. 220M seems to be the floor for The Martian, I'm predicting a 235M finish.

 

Then how am I getting an A+ from Martian? And a C from Walk?

Edited by Infernus
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5 minutes ago, Infernus said:

? 12.5/10.15 = 1.23 = difference of 23%...

BOM has the total listed as 10,137,502. I was dividing the smaller total as the numerator for everything, should I do it the other way around?

Edited by WrathOfHan
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6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOM has the total listed as 10,137,502. I was dividing the smaller total as the numerator for everything, should I do it the other way around?

 

You should do: | (Predicted Total  - Actual Total) | /Actual Total= X

 

| (12,5 - 10,137) | / 10,137= 0,23 = 23%

| (7,8 - 10,137) | / 10,137 = 0,23 = 23%

 

Simple, logic.

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ah ok, thanks! I'll recalculate it later.

 

the Absolute value isn't obviously that necessary: without it in the 2nd example you would have -23% but you know that your prediction is 77% of the actual number and that you missed it by 23%.

 

Obviously in the first example your prediction is 123% of the actual number and so on

 

But Han, I think you should wait that movies finish their run. Otherwise your work should be all revised in a few weeks ;)

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40 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

BOM has the total listed as 10,137,502. I was dividing the smaller total as the numerator for everything, should I do it the other way around?

 

Yeah, I think. It depends on Chas though whether he wants to see the difference as percent of one's prediction or as percent of the actual gross. I say he should do it the later way (your way). For once, It would be a different thing from the usual. Secondly it would be slightly beneficial to everyone who didn't abstain, thus a small reward for their..er.. hard work.

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Sorry about the placement mistake, I'll fix it with the next round of results on Tuesday worst case scenario.

 

and feel free to guess around with how SOTMs etc are shaping up in advance.

 

I'd only ask not to publish any calculations about people's specific top 15/top 10 scores etc as they can massively indicate who may be the overall winner so would kill the suspense. Whereas posting that there's a chance I'm about to crush SOTM1 is not gamechanging (sadly) :)

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