Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

[WrathOfHan]

9 minutes ago, Infernus said:

? No. 295K, in fact!

I won't get 8,000 points from SOTM 1  At least I'm getting 4K each from Sicario and The Walk, Pan will probably go below 200k next weekend.

Edited November 30, 2015 by WrathOfHan

[MovieMan89]

Well I "only" get 8 wrong opposed to 10 now at least. 

 

What an awful two weeks for me. Though I was stubbornly bullheaded on two of the questions this week I should've known the answer to by Thursday. 

 

I'm surprised there are actually some who got question 16 right. I mean basically the worst possible scenario had to happen for it to be No (TGD had to severley underperform and VF had to have one of the worst wide openings ever). And it did, but it still just missed it by like 1m is all. 

Edited November 30, 2015 by MovieMan89

[Infernus]

10 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

Well I "only" get 8 wrong opposed to 10 now at least. 

 

What an awful two weeks for me. Though I was stubbornly bullheaded on two of the questions this week I should've known the answer to by Thursday. 

 

I'm surprised there are actually some who got question 16 right. I mean basically the worst possible scenario had to happen for it to be No (TGD had to severley underperform and VF had to have one of the worst wide openings ever). And it did, but it still just missed it by like 1m is all. 

 

Exactly! Come to think about it, it is really surprising, and shameful, that so many movies in the past 2 months performed at levels that were easily the worst possible scenarios. From all the mega flops of October to even blockbuster releases like Spectre and MJ2 and now even GD, everything has been performing worse than even the worst projections here.

[WrathOfHan]

Results for TGD and Creed's OWs: http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20537-chasmmis-winter-2015-game-top-7-domestic-opening-weekend-standings/?do=findComment&comment=2283721

 

darkelf and Tele tied for the closest on TGD, will they both get 10,000 or do they split it?

Everyone predicted TGD, but only 5 will get points from it. They were all in the 15-20M range so it's only a 5k gain. 10 are safe and 12 will lose points.

Only 3 people predicted Creed. Baumer gets the bonus 10k on top of 15k, and given how many weeks and SOTMs he's missed he needs it  Tele gains 10k points and MikeKaye loses 10k.

[Filmovie]

But what if Creed doesn't make the top 7?

 

Quote

Call a film’s gross to within 1 million to get 30,000 bonus points
Call a film’s gross to within 2.5 million to get 25,000 bonus points
Call a film’s gross to within 5 million to get 20,000 bonus points
Call a film’s gross to within 10 million to get 15,000 bonus points
Call a film’s gross to within 15 million to get 10,000 bonus points
Call a film’s gross to within 20 million to get 5,000 bonus points
Call a film’s gross to within 30 million to get no bonus points

 

Should these rules be applied again? Or should one lose 7K points and stop?

 

That's just a curiosity

[Wrath]

On 11/19/2015, 2:56:57, WrathOfHan said:

My total was accurate.

 

EDIT: Nevermind, just realized he never fixed it. He also never tallied the first question of Part 2.

 

If Creed doesn't make the top 7 then I assume there's no bonus 10k points awarded. Otherwise you'd have people trying to game the system. Sure, everyone knows that MJ2 was going to be in the top 7, but those 5-6-7 slots are tricky as you're picking between movies that are all only about 50% likely to make it. And since at least a handful of other folks are likely to pick, say, Hateful 8 for their 7th slot as well, you also don't have a great chance of getting the 10k bonus. On the other hand, If you picked Spotlight as your #7 and guessed $5M, you'd be guaranteed being penalized for it not being in the top 7, but you'd also be guaranteed to get the 10k bonus for having the closest guess. Yes, you'd also give up potential points for getting it right *and* getting a close guess, but with Spotlight you'd also be safe from losing additional points from being badly off.

 

I don't think that's a decision that should be encouraged.

 

Edit - What the hell is going on with the "quote" function? I was responding to Filmovie and have these random quotes I can't delete from other people.

On 11/19/2015, 2:38:50, darkelf said:

 

Edited December 1, 2015 by Wrath

[WrathOfHan]

The OP says that even if a film misses the top OWs and you were in the red you still lose points, so I'm guessing you'll still keep any points you gainfor gross accuracy.

[Wrath]

21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The OP says that even if a film misses the top OWs and you were in the red you still lose points, so I'm guessing you'll still keep any points you gainfor gross accuracy.

 

Oh, sorry, I wasn't clear. My point was that if you guess $5M for Spotlight, it could open anywhere between $0 to $35M and you'd be safe from losing points for being off and the odds were pretty slim of it it opening over $35M.

 

Now that I think about it, I should have suggested $30M as the prediction instead of $5M. You can't get points for being close anyway if its not in the top 7, and with a $30M guess, it could open anywhere between $0 and $60M and you'd be safe. I think the odds of Spotlight opening in that range would be around 100%, and you'd be guaranteed 3,000 points (10k (closest guess) - 7k (wrong about top 7) = 3k).

Edited December 1, 2015 by Wrath

[darkelf]

You lose 10k if a movie misses the top 7, no gain for gross accuracy.

[Wrath]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

The OP says that even if a film misses the top OWs and you were in the red you still lose points, so I'm guessing you'll still keep any points you gainfor gross accuracy.

 

1 hour ago, darkelf said:

You lose 10k if a movie misses the top 7, no gain for gross accuracy.

 

Nope, just -7k if your movie misses the top 7. Of course, its a net 17k swing in total, as you get 10k for being right about a movie being in the top 7, but you lose 7k if its not in the top 7, so a +10k to -7K swing.

 

But, yeah, the +10k about being closest doesn't say anything about it only applying to the top 7. I just think that it creates a potential problem that might be too late to address this time (unless Chasmmi makes a ruling), but next time maybe the +10k should only apply to movies that are in the top 7.

 

Edit - For fun, I went back and checked out some of my predicts. Wow. What the hell was I thinking? Like, the math doesn't even begin to work on out on some of the predicts I made. I need to not leave that until the last minute next time.

Edited December 1, 2015 by Wrath

[Infernus]

37 minutes ago, Wrath said:

 

 

Nope, just -7k if your movie misses the top 7. Of course, its a net 17k swing in total, as you get 10k for being right about a movie being in the top 7, but you lose 7k if its not in the top 7, so a +10k to -7K swing.

 

But, yeah, the +10k about being closest doesn't say anything about it only applying to the top 7.

 

Edit - For fun, I went back and checked out some of my predicts. Wow. What the hell was I thinking? Like, the math doesn't even begin to work on out on some of the predicts I made. I need to not leave that until the last minute next time.

 

Exact same thing here buddy.

[chasmmi]

It's late and I am sleepy so will do scoring and fuller explanation on the above point tomorrow, but just wanted to briefly summarise that with things like top 10/15/7 etc. you cannot gain points on films that miss the list. However when mentioned you can lose extra points for being miles off on a bad prediction.

 

e.g. If somebody predicts Jem and the Holograms would finish 15th with $2M total. They would lose 10k for Jem not making the top 15 and would gain no accuracy bonuses for their spot on total gross prediction.

 

However if they predicted Jem to be 15th with $250M, they would lose 10k plus all the deductions that they would have lost if the film had made the top 15.

 

If that's not clear it's my sleepy state making me blurry and I shall try to retire to my chambers.  

 

[chasmmi]

Part 1:

 

1. Will The Good Dinosaur have a 3 day Weekend above $40M? NO

2. Will The Good Dinosaur have a 3 day Weekend above $50M? 3000 NO

3. Will The Good Dinosaur have a 3 day Weekend above $60M? NO

4. Will Creed and Frankenstein's combined OW be higher than Good Dinosaur's Combined Friday and Saturday? YES

5. Will Creed's OW be double that of Frankenstein's? YES but barely

6. Will the top 3 New entries enter the charts at 1st, 3rd and 4th respectively? 2000 NO

 

7. Will The Danish Girl have a PTA above $20,000? YES

8. Will Spectre finish above Peanuts? 2000 YES

9. Will at least 2 films have a Friday increase of at least 185%? YES

10. Will the Martian stay above Spotlight? NO

11. Will The Secret in their eye's Sunday stay above $1M? NO

12. Will Mockingjay 2 overtake Spectre's Total gross by the end of the weekend? 2000 YES

 

13. Will Bridge of Spies' PTA stay above $1000 YES

14. Name any film in the top 15 that drops less than 45% (or choose none). 3000 EVERYTHING EXCEPT HUNGER GAMES

15. Will Goosebumps drop more than 55%? YES

16. Will the combined total Grosses of the three highest new entries by Sunday exceed MJ2's OW total? 2000 SOMEHOW THIS FAILED

17. Will Pan drop less than 30%? YES

18. Will we all do better for once this weekend? IT SEEMS NOT

 

12/18 2000 points

13/18 3000 points

14/18 4000 points

15/18 6000 points

16/18 8000 points

17/18 10000 points

18/18 15000 points

 

Part 2

 

1. What will be Good Dinosaur's Total by end of Sunday? (5000) $55.455M

2. What will Creed's Saturday gross be? (5000)  11.57M

3. What will be the difference in weekend gross between Frankenstein and Peanuts? (5000) $7.28M

 

Part 3

 

3. CREED

5. PEANUTS

8. SPOTLIGHT

10. MARTIAN

12. FRANKENSTEIN

 

3/5 3000

4/5 6000

[chasmmi]

Week 7 results: (WrathofHan and Infernus both predicted the same for Creed's Saturday so both get the bonus. The bonus also gets 1000 bigger due to the super accuracy of the prediction)

 

Name	Part 1	Part 2	Part 3	Total
Wrathofhan	21000	6000	14000	41000
background	27000		14000	41000
Telemachos	26000	5000	9000	40000
infernus	23000	6000	9000	38000
Exxdee	29000		9000	38000
filmovie	23000	5000	4000	32000
Dajk	27000		4000	31000
Darkelf	21000		9000	30000
damienRoc	23000		4000	27000
glassfairy	21000		4000	25000
Grey Ghost	21000		4000	25000
misafeco	21000		4000	25000
Chasmmi	20000		4000	24000
jajang	21000		2000	23000
kayumanggi	16000		4000	20000
MikeKaye42	16000		4000	20000
Blankments	16000		4000	20000
Wrath	15000		4000	19000
Movieman89	14000		4000	18000
Avi	14000		4000	18000

[WrathOfHan]

Tied for #1 this week  

[Infernus]

Good week for me!! And thanx for that extra 1000. It was just what I needed for a certain something  

[DAJK]

Congrats warthofhan and background!

[Plain Old Tele]

I would've gotten away with it too, if it wasn't for you meddling kids!

[grey ghost]

Uh oh, guys.

 

Tele is starting to get serious.

 

Maybe we should work together. 

Edited December 2, 2015 by grey ghost

[That One Girl]

Yes!  After underwhelming last few weeks, I've officially rebounded.