Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

[Wrath]

7 hours ago, chasmmi said:

 

I'm afraid that is part of the risk. I'm going to take the following to work for your answers:

 

P.P.P.S -Or, in the end, if you don't agree to this then just ignore what I wrote in the brackets and just consider the category i wrote outside to be my predict (except for the danish girl, for it just ignore the supporting actress predict if you don't agree and take it as Danish Girl - Actor, Makeup)

 

So for the 3 films in question, I'm going to read it as:

 

Danish Girl : Best Actor, Best Makeup

Spotlight - Best Picture. original Screenplay, Supporting Actor, Director, 

Carol-Best Actress, Best Picture, Best Director, best supporting actress, best adapted screenplay

 

I think that's fair. Sure, if someone gets supporting when the guess was lead, that could be a big loss of points. But if the guess was correct it would result in a big gain of points and it would be hardly fair to have the reward without the risk.

 

That question still terrifies me and I wonder if everyone did the math all the way through on this. For example, Tele, Movieman, and Filmmovie all had similar but different answers for Spotlight, with some combination of Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor. But they all had slightly different combinations. Added together, the *best* that threesome can do in terms of combined score on Spotlight is -30,000 points if Filmovie (who guessed all 4) is correct (and thus +60k) making Tele and Movieman both wrong (and at -45k each). But if something weird happens and, say, its nominated for Best Score, then they'll collectively be down 150,000 points (-60k for Filmmovie, and -45k each for Tele and Movieman).

 

Heh, if MikeKaye42 gets everything right, he's going to gain 289,000 points, but if he's wrong on everything he'll lose 397,000 points. Obviously it'll be somewhere in the middle, but that's a pretty extraordinary range.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Wrath

[MovieMan89]

5 hours ago, Wrath said:

But if something weird happens and, say, its nominated for Best Score, then they'll collectively be down 150,000 points (-60k for Filmmovie, and -45k each for Tele and Movieman).

 

What? That's not how I read the points working at all. It's supposed to be if something you specifically state doesn't get nominated then you lose all those points (i.e. I put Best Pic for Spotlight and if it doesn't get that I lose on all the Spotlight points). You don't have to guess every single thing it will get a nom for though. That would be practically impossible to predict right. Unless I read it wrong, in which case tons of people are screwed. 

[Plain Old Tele]

I read it the same as MovieMan.

[Infernus]

6 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

What? That's not how I read the points working at all. It's supposed to be if something you specifically state doesn't get nominated then you lose all those points (i.e. I put Best Pic for Spotlight and if it doesn't get that I lose on all the Spotlight points). You don't have to guess every single thing it will get a nom for though. That would be practically impossible to predict right. Unless I read it wrong, in which case tons of people are screwed. 

 

Yeah we don't have to predict every single thing. Only requirement is that whatever we do predict must happen. As chasmmi said in a reply to a question of mine in that thread itself - " If you choose to be specific on categories, then you reduce that films influence on you to just those categories and no others "

I think that clears it all.

[MovieMan89]

Just now, Infernus said:

 

Yeah we don't have to predict every single thing. Only requirement is that whatever we do predict must happen. As chasmmi said in a reply to a question of mine in that thread itself - " If you choose to be specific on categories, then you reduce that films influence on you to just those categories and no others "

I think that clears it all.

Yeah, gotta have all the ones we specifically stated correct on that film. And if I understand that last bit right that means you can't get point for all the things its nominated in if you went specific, just the categories you chose? 

[Infernus]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, gotta have all the ones we specifically stated correct on that film. And if I understand that last bit right that means you can't get point for all the things its nominated in if you went specific, just the categories you chose? 

 

Yes, that was the very question I asked to which he gave that answer.

[chasmmi]

All of the last few posts are correct

 

Pay off the complexity of this question was whether to go specific or broad.  

 

Eg if you are sure spotlight is getting director and picture but not sure on anything else.  Picking those 2 wins about 27k. 

 

Yet a sweep of everything wins about 35 or so so therefore the guy who went safe wins more. But if it only gets those two noms then the safe guy is down at 8k or so. 

 

So many layers it hurts my brain and im destined to screw up scoring on this question about 5 times before getting it right

[BadAtGender]

There's a reason I abstained.

[Infernus]

59 minutes ago, damienroc said:

There's a reason I abstained.

 

I myself don't really see why anyone would have abstained..

 

I mean you are winning just 5000 by abstaining. And yet if you played super-safe and only went in with the absolute locks your predict would be something like this -

 

Spotlight (picture, director, original screenplay)

Carol (Picture, actress)

Brooklyn - (actress)

Room - (actress)

Bridge of Spies (supporting actor)

Danish Girl - (makeup)

 

An adapted screenplay for carol, brooklyn, room and an original for BoS and an actor for danish girl are near surefires too but I am just stating the absolute locks.

 

And you would have won around 36+27+8+8+6+2 = 87,000 ! 

 

You could also have left it unspecified for brooklyn, room, bridge of spies and danish girl and that may have won you even more (the first three are 90% all getting a best pic nom too).

 

You could have also given Trumbo, Big Short and Creed (all unspecified) and may have won even more (85%+ chances they will get nominated into atleast one of the given categories).

 

Why settle for 5000?

Edited December 12, 2015 by Infernus

[BadAtGender]

1) I'm busy with other things to look at all the math on it

2) I don't believe in locks

[Infernus]

1 minute ago, damienroc said:

1) I'm busy with other things to look at all the math on it

2) I don't believe in locks

 

Well your choice. But still there was no math in it. Spotlight alone from the list I gave was getting 7 times the points abstaining was giving. Maths would be required if it was really close and one has to think of all possible scenarios and odds and stuff to check how much they might lose . Here its clear you are far better off without abstaining.

 

And c'mon you won't consider even this a lock?  - 

Spotlight

Carol

Brooklyn

Room

 

You don't think all these four are definitely getting into atleast one thing?

[BadAtGender]

2 minutes ago, Infernus said:

 

Well your choice. But still there was no math in it. Spotlight alone from the list I gave was getting 7 times the points abstaining was giving. Maths would be required if it was really close and one has to think of all possible scenarios and odds and stuff to check how much they might lose . Here its clear you are far better off without abstaining.

 

And c'mon you won't consider even this a lock?  - 

Spotlight

Carol

Brooklyn

Room

 

You don't think all these four are definitely getting into atleast one thing?

 

Now? Sure, why not. Last night when I had fifteen minutes until the deadline to decide if I wanted to change from the abstain? Not a chance in hell.

[Infernus]

4 minutes ago, damienroc said:

 

Now? Sure, why not. Last night when I had fifteen minutes until the deadline to decide if I wanted to change from the abstain? Not a chance in hell.

 

Oh. Well, I guess I can understand that.

[Plain Old Tele]

I think there's a chance something like BROOKLYN gets shut out.

[Infernus]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

I think there's a chance something like BROOKLYN gets shut out.

 

Why would it be shut out? It has everything going for it - rave reviews from everywhere, its going good at the box-office so not an under-the-radar thing, and it has gotten noms at all major awards, infact not just noms - ronan has even won or was the runner-up at most awards and she is definitely just behind larson in the oscars race, according to every single awards pundit. In fact only the Blanchett-Ronan-Larson trio seems to be confirmed in the best actress field with many in contention for 4th and 5th spot. I know someone may throw a 'lego' at me but c'mon how often and to how many movies does that happen? And unlike it this is definitely the type the academy likes to give awards to. 

Although even if you don't agree, it still doesn't fault my point. Even giving just the other three would have won you a lot of points. Heck, even just giving spotlight - picture and director, would give you 30,000  - six times of what abstaining would give.

Edited December 12, 2015 by Infernus

[WrathOfHan]

Brooklyn is locked for Actress but I'm skeptical of it's chances elsewhere. Room is now ahead of it.

[Wrath]

15 hours ago, Infernus said:

 

Yeah we don't have to predict every single thing. Only requirement is that whatever we do predict must happen. As chasmmi said in a reply to a question of mine in that thread itself - " If you choose to be specific on categories, then you reduce that films influence on you to just those categories and no others "

I think that clears it all.

Ah, ok, I missed that clarification. That seems pretty clear.

[MovieMan89]

16 hours ago, Telemachos said:

I think there's a chance something like BROOKLYN gets shut out.

There for sure is. The movie is way too slight to be considered a safe bet in any big category. While it hits the mark in each individual aspect of film-making, it is such a quaint movie that really does nothing to separate itself from countless other period piece romantic dramas. I'm not sure what will make it stand out enough to get nominated, except a weak field. If TFA is enough of a phenomenon and the Academy hops on board, Brooklyn would be the one I see getting axed. Or if they do decide IO deserves a nom, Brooklyn would be the one I see getting axed. Or if The Big Short picks up enough momentum for a nom, and etc. Though at the moment I feel like only 6 movies are very safe bets (though amazingly Max is quickly becoming a 7th), so there is still room I suppose. 

[chasmmi]

Yeah the nominations are looking exciting and confusing and i wanted to do something crazy with them.  

 

If it ends up breaking the game as one player scores 8,645,250 points more than anyone else ill have to work out a better way of scaling its effectiveness down next year.

 

(And add a couple more game breaking sotms this year to give the field a chance to catch up again )

 

 

[Infernus]

3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

There for sure is. The movie is way too slight to be considered a safe bet in any big category. While it hits the mark in each individual aspect of film-making, it is such a quaint movie that really does nothing to separate itself from countless other period piece romantic dramas. I'm not sure what will make it stand out enough to get nominated, except a weak field. If TFA is enough of a phenomenon and the Academy hops on board, Brooklyn would be the one I see getting axed. Or if they do decide IO deserves a nom, Brooklyn would be the one I see getting axed. Or if The Big Short picks up enough momentum for a nom, and etc. Though at the moment I feel like only 6 movies are very safe bets (though amazingly Max is quickly becoming a 7th), so there is still room I suppose. 

 

What are those six movies that you think are above brookyln in their chances for....I guess you were talking about best picture? Anyways what I stated as absolute lock for it was best actress. Tell me how it could not be nominated for it for what do you think would take its place?