Chasmmi's Winter Game - Grey Ghost is the WINNER!

[Plain Old Tele]

I have no problem with the PTA being considered zero. These little quirks and surprises are what gives the game its flavor.

[WrathOfHan]

Estimated results:

 

Part 1:

 

1. Will Spectre open to more than 75M? No

2. Will Spectre open to more than 85M? 2000 No

3. Will Spectre open to more than 95M? No

4. Will Spectre opening weekend be higher than the rest of the top 10 combined? 3000 No

5. Will Peanuts open to more than 37.5M? Yes

6. Will Peanuts open to more than 47.5M? 2000 No

7. Will Spectre and Peanuts combine to more than 55M on Friday? No

 

8. Will Bridge of Spies finish within 500k of Goosebumps? 3000 Estimates say no, but actuals might say yes

9. Will the Last Witch Hunter finish above Burnt? No

10. Will the Intern stay in the top 11 this weekend? Yes

11. Will Scout's guide drop more than 72.5% this weekend? 2000 No

12. Will Trumbo have a PTA above $20,000? No

13. Will at least one of Rock the Kasbah or Jem and the Holograms have a weekend PTA below $100? Yes

14. Will Our Brand is Crisis have a larger percentage drop than Paranormal Activity? Currently yes but there's 1% inbetween them

 

15. Will Hotel Transylvannia have a $1M Sunday? Exactly 1M, could change in actuals

16. Will The Martian cross $195M?  3000 Yes

17. Will Crimson Peak increase less than 40% on Saturday? No

18. Name any film that drops less than 35% this weekend (or choose none for none)? 2000 The Martian, Bridge of Spies, Goosebumps, The Intern, Woodlawn

19. Will Sicario have a weekend above $1M? Yes

20. Will Crimson Peak stay above $1000 PTA? Yes by $43, could change in actuals

21. Will this weekend ever be able to live up to the epicness of the previous two? Eh

 

 

 

Part 2. (5000 each)

 

1. What will be the difference in 3 day gross between Spectre and Peanuts? 28M

2. What will be the combined percentage drop of Burnt, Crisis and Scout's Guide (eg 44+21+15= 80% total)? 159.5%

3. What will The Martian and Bridge of Spies' combined Saturday gross be? 7.012M

4. What will the highest percentage drop in the top 20 be? (No need to pick a film, just a number) 69%

5. What will the PTA of Jem be this weekend? $0

 

Part 3.

3. The Martian

7. Burnt

9. The Intern

10. Paranormal Activity

12. Crimson Peak

15. Steve Jobs

 

[kayumanggi]

Finally, no more JEM questions.

[That One Girl]

...and I flopped this weekend...

[WrathOfHan]

Current Part 2 winners:

 

1. Blanks (close between him and GreyGhost)

2. Infernus (if actuals go down 1% avi wins)

3. GreyGhost (this will be neck and neck with DAJK, GG is only winning by .004)

4. Exxdee (highly likely final)

5. GreyGhost (final)

[MovieMan89]

Damn, I forgot to ever answer the part 2 bonuses. And this week's questions were kinda brutal! 

Edited November 9, 2015 by MovieMan89

[Infernus]

10 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Current Part 2 winners:

 

1. Blanks (close between him and GreyGhost)

2. Infernus (if actuals go down 1% avi wins)

3. GreyGhost (this will be neck and neck with DAJK, GG is only winning by .004) 

4. Exxdee (highly likely final)

5. GreyGhost (final)

Woah! I may actually get a bonus?? I thought that was never gonna happen. Funny there wasn't a single predict between my 168 and avi's 149.

[Infernus]

18 hours ago, Telemachos said:

I have no problem with the PTA being considered zero. These little quirks and surprises are what gives the game its flavor.

 

Then we should rather take the PTA to be infinitely large. That would still be a surprise and quirk. And That would be more sensible than taking it 0 since We all know PTA is inversely proportional to Theatre Count, especially when the theatre drops and gains are this big.

[Plain Old Tele]

18 hours ago, Telemachos said:

I have no problem with the PTA being considered zero. These little quirks and surprises are what gives the game its flavor.

 

Then we should rather take the PTA to be infinitely large. That would still be a surprise and quirk. And That would be more sensible than taking it 0 since We all know PTA is inversely proportional to Theatre Count, especially when the theatre drops and gains are this big.

But why be mathematically clever? It made nothing this weekend. Zero.

[Filmovie]

17 hours ago, Telemachos said:

 

But why be mathematically clever? It made nothing this weekend. Zero.

 

According to this rule: if The Renevant were suddenly postponed to March 2016, then mathematically it would have made 0$ during the game. So the person with the lower prediction is the one who had the best. Instead the person who thought it would have been a great hit looses many points.

 

IMHO it doesn't make sense.

 

 

Moreover in this case it's pretty clear that it wouldn't have had a screen average below 100$:

 

Jem's numbers:

 

2015

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Oct 23–25	15	$1,375,320	-	2,413	-	$570	$1,375,320	1
Oct 30–Nov 1	18	$387,925	-71.8%	2,417	+4	$160	$2,028,755	2

 

 

Rock's numbers:

 

2015

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Oct 23–25	13	$1,470,592	-	2,012	-	$731	$1,470,592	1
Oct 30–Nov 1	20	$354,955	-75.9%	2,012	-	$176	$2,430,726	2
Nov 6–8	33	$59,021 (Estimate)	-83.4%	201	-1,811	$294	$2,745,733 (Estimate)	3

 

Jem would have lost so many theathers that its screen average would have increased (like Rock's did).

 

Then again, they are so few points that they aren't worth-discussing. I said mine (Jem's questions should be canceled)

 

Chasmmi is the only one who has the right to decide what to do 

Edited November 10, 2015 by Filmovie

[Infernus]

1 hour ago, Filmovie said:

 

According to this rule: if The Renevant were suddenly postponed to March 2016, then mathematically it would have made 0$ during the game. So the person with the lower prediction is the one who had the best. Instead the person who thought it would have been a great hit looses many points.

 

IMHO it doesn't make sense.

 

 

Moreover in this case it's pretty clear that it would have had a screen average below 100$:

 

Jem's numbers:

 

2015

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Oct 23–25	15	$1,375,320	-	2,413	-	$570	$1,375,320	1
Oct 30–Nov 1	18	$387,925	-71.8%	2,417	+4	$160	$2,028,755	2

 

 

Rock's numbers:

 

2015

Date (click to view chart)	Rank	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theaters	Change / Avg.		Gross-to-Date	Week #
Oct 23–25	13	$1,470,592	-	2,012	-	$731	$1,470,592	1
Oct 30–Nov 1	20	$354,955	-75.9%	2,012	-	$176	$2,430,726	2
Nov 6–8	33	$59,021 (Estimate)	-83.4%	201	-1,811	$294	$2,745,733 (Estimate)	3

 

Jem would have lost so many theathers that its screen average would have increased (like Rock's did).

 

Then again, they are so few points that they aren't worth-discussing. I said mine (Jem's questions should be canceled)

 

Chasmmi is the only one who has the right to decide what to do 

 

Exactly! As I said,PTA is inversely proportional to theatre count especially when the drops and gains are this big. So I don't see why we should take that as Zero.  But Yeah its fully Chasmmi's choice in the end. I'm just giving my thought on the matter.

Edited November 9, 2015 by Infernus

[Plain Old Tele]

1 hour ago, Telemachos said:

 

But why be mathematically clever? It made nothing this weekend. Zero.

 

According to this rule: if The Renevant were suddenly postponed to March 2016, then mathematically it would have made 0$ during the game. So the person with the lower prediction is the one who had the best. Instead the person who thought it would have been a great hit looses many points.

Exactly! It's the risk we all take with our top 15s. In fact, it's particularly emphasized this time around because there were no backup options allowed.

To me this makes the game fun. It's like release dates in China -- a lot of the time you just have to guess and have faith.

Of course, it's chasmmi's call.

[grey ghost]

15 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Current Part 2 winners:

 

5. GreyGhost (final)

 

Yeah, I have no problem with canceling question 5.

 

I don't want people questioning the integrity of the game.

 

 

[Filmovie]

2 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Yeah, I have no problem with canceling question 5.

 

I don't want people questioning the integrity of the game.

 

 

 

 No problem Grey: I didn't question the integrity, I said my opinion    5000 points are nothing

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, Filmovie said:

 

 No problem Grey: I didn't question the integrity, I said my opinion    5000 points are nothing

 

If 5000 points are nothing then why do you guys keep bringing it up? 

[chasmmi]

Ok right, I forgot about the Kasbah/Jem question in the main 15 questions. That one I will void and say any answer is a correct answer.

 

Bonus Question 5 will still go to whoever predicted lowest though because well... reasons

[chasmmi]

On the plus side, this week's weekly questions are up with almost no mention of Jem at all

 

 

and an SOTM back from last year

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/20522-winter-sotm-5-the-power-of-your-convictions/

[Filmovie]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

If 5000 points are nothing then why do you guys keep bringing it up? 

 

Because if I have an opinion, think it's right and I have time and above all will to say it, I am going to say it. I don't think it's a strange behaviour.

 

I will respect any decision is taken

[WrathOfHan]

Some observations from pre-season predictions:

 

A: A lot of us are fucked on Spectre.

F, Question 5: With Mockingjay tracking slightly above MJP1 this question might not happen.

F, Question 7: This one probably isn't happening either.

F, Question 8: This is happening if Peanuts counts as a reboot.

F, Question 16: 3 out of 4 choices had one megabomb each (#2 Kasbah, #3 Jem, #4 Scouts). Will Macbeth or Zombies manage to be giant bombs for choice #1?

[MovieMan89]

I'm gonna be like 100m too high on Spectre and that's after I went significantly down in predictions for it right before the game started.