fantasy bo Fantasy Box Office - 2016 Discussion Thread | FBO 2016 Geekfreek Awards .... Winner is announced - see the thread.... Congratulations to all on a game well played!

[CJohn]

1 minute ago, JJ-8 said:

 

Most likely wrath and Lucas will most of their cash on BVS. Opens up potential such as the jungle book in April. There r no doubt others. Also I'm still not totally convinced BVS will destroy records. Nothing is certain Cjohn. Missing 1 film doesn't mean u r gone. There will be other surprise hits this year. Maybe xmen will over perform. Dory could blow us away. BVS muddling and civil war disappoints. This advantage just means u need play it carefully. Smart investments can be just as good as 1 massive investment. Anyway who says Lucas or wrath go all in for BVS.

Nothing will do 350M on a 58M budget  

 

And what are you gonna do with How to be Single? The budget was BRUTALLY increased. I would never bought it if it was that high. I think you should create some sort of rule that if the budget increases more than 75% from the original estimate the person has the right to cancel their investment if they want to. 

[DAJK]

Wait.... what did the budget for HTBS increase to? You guys are making me worry that it's 100M or something.

[Wrath]

29 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Wait.... what did the budget for HTBS increase to? You guys are making me worry that it's 100M or something.

 

$38M, I think.

 

Edit - Also worth noting is that Simionski is currently 3rd in revenue despite having had 0% of Deadpool.

Edited February 17, 2016 by Wrath

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, Wrath said:

 

$38M, I think.

 

Edit - Also worth noting is that Simionski is currently 3rd in revenue despite having had 0% of Deadpool.

 

That won't last long.

 

Everyone with Deadpool will have an extra 100-200 m by the end of the month. 

[DAJK]

According to The Wrap, budget for Risen is 20M.

 

http://www.thewrap.com/deadpool-box-office-projection-is-65-million-just-like-last-week/

[Wrath]

31 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

That won't last long.

 

Everyone with Deadpool will have an extra 100-200 m by the end of the month. 

 

True, but Zootopia will be opening by then making things a little less stark.

[Ethan Hunt]

7 hours ago, CJohn said:

What is there to screw up? You guys will have money to buy both BvS and Civil War. You guys have won  

Invest in Gods of Egypt?

[lucasbenica]

Investment restrictions scare me. I think thats when other players may catch up. I dont wanna be the one who doesnt have early access to the investments. lol

[BourneFan #1]

The Conjuring 2 is another film that will create a large profit on a low budget.

[JJ-8]

Hi guys,

 

i have an idea to get around the whole first in best dressed for investments.  I believe this will also help people who are disillusioned to  continue to play.  obviously those  that make  more money will still have advantages, but now at least everyone gets a chance to invest in every film by this way.... 

 

Just tagging everyone so that they see this post

@BourneFan #1 @chasmmi @CJohn @DAJK @Ethan Hunt @Exxdee @grey ghost @Jayhawk @lucasbenica @megaboxoffice @Simionski @ThatOneGuy @The Panda @Wrath @WrathOfHan

 

The highlighted red section is the new rule:-

I'm open to tweaks to the rule assuming we use it going forward... for example change the 6 hours to 1 hour ?

 

Investment Rules

• The "minimum" max total % available for films is 200%.  ie. All films will have a start with 200%.
• Players can choose to only invest in part or all of a films budget. Players can invest in 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 100% of the budget.  I will also allow investments of 25% and 75%. 
• The first "6 hours" or I'm calling it the "Movie Investment Super Window" after a film becomes available the following will apply :-
  • All investments will be accepted assuming you have the money and your not under Investement Restriction rules.
  • At the end of 6 hours the final % is given will be calculated based upon the "total interest" / % invested in the film.
  • If a film =< 300% every investor will receive the % of investment they put down.
    • If the total % invested <=200% then the max total % for that movie will be 200%
    • If the total % invested <=300% then the max total % for that movie will be 300%
  • If a film total % is > 300% but less than 500% (ie. total % of everyone investements) then
    • Your new investment % in the film will be = (%invested / Total% Invested ) * 300
  • If a film total % >= 500% then
    • Your new investment % in the film will be = (%invested / Total% Invested ) * 500 (i rarely expect this to happen)
• After 6 hours has passed, normal investment rules apply and max total % will be applied (obviously part of the film will remain if it's under 300% and if the film does get more than 200% investments only 200% will be available - max)
• Players will receive the % of the earnings from the film based upon which % invested in the film. Eg. invested 20%, you will receive 20% of the earnings. 
• You cannot invest in the same film for than a total of more than 100%. (If you invest 100% of the film’s budget, you can not invest in the film a second time.)
• A film is released irrelevant of how much % is invested in total even if only 20% was invested, the film is still released.
• If you have chosen to invest and decide to cancel ALL or part of your investment (keeping within the normal rules above), the following WILL apply:
  • > 2 Weeks prior to release - 100% of the cancelled amount is returned
  • > 1 Week prior to release - 50% of the cancelled amount is returned
  • < 1 Week prior to release - Nothing will be returned at this point so you should just keep your investment.
• You can also choose to sell all or part of your investment (following the same rules as above for investments)
  • Once the movie is released you cannot sell your investment
  • The Sale can be in the form of money or swapping for other investments.
  • The amount is up to you - there are no limits and only need to be agreed between all parties involved.
  • Sales involving money will count towards your earnings for the year.
  • If at time of release an on-sold investment has a budget change, then this change will be reflected in the current owners budget. eg. Investor B bought the movie investment worth 40m of investor A for 60m. The budget then increased to 50m. Investor B's final budget equals 70m as a result because investor B paid a premium of 20m to investor A for the investment

Investment Restrictions (applies as you invest more %)

This rule will have a bigger impact under the new rule also cause once you are restricted, you would be able invest during the movie investment super window.

• Your ability to invest is restricted as you invest more in movies over the year. There are 2 different levels of restrictions. Each level is associated with a % of investments.
• Investment Restrictions apply to both Selling/Purchasing and Investing.
• The following lists the 2 levels (3 including the unrestricted level). 
  • Unrestricted - as per normal rules
  • Level 1 Restrictions (> 1500%) - Cannot invest in any film until 3 weeks prior to release.
  • Level 2 Restrictions (> 3000%) - Cannot invest in any film until 1 week prior to release.

 

I'm proposing to use this rule going forward immediately if there are no major disagreements.  I know it's a game change but it's always been bug bear of mine.  Key point is - i intend to use this for BVS as the first trial.

 

 

[chasmmi]

That sounds fair. I have a coupe of clarifications/thoughts.

 

1. Can it be 12 hours? I speak selfishly as somebody based in Korea where the 6 hour period is 9am-3pm, which is working hours.

 

2. If a film gets exactly 200% investments, will it count as a 200 or 300% film?

 

3. If I get this right if I invest 50% into a film my investment will work as follows:

 

a) less than 200% total, I get my 50% and there's a 200% max.

 

less than 300% total, I get my 50% and there's a 200% max.

 

c) 300-500% total (let's say 400%), then I get 50/400 * 300 = 37.5% (Should these possibly get rounded to the nearest 5 or 10%)

 

d) 500%+ total (let's say 750%), then I get 50/750 * 500 = 33.3333%

 

 

4. If people are really on board with this idea, then maybe throw in a one off 12 hour open market, where players can use the above formula to invest in any film due for release between now and the standard 1 month window. (Maybe have it land on the same point that BvS becomes available and allow every locked but still to open film unlock for that same period).

 

 

That's all I got, feel free to ignore as you please  

[grey ghost]

I support any change that makes the game more popular though I wonder if this really helps people who are way behind.

 

Instead of the leaders having a few minutes to invest 100% into BvS and Civil War, they'll have 6 hours.

 

The leaders missing that few minute window for upcoming big movies was the only chance anyone had to catch up to them.

 

I think there might be an easier solution. Increase the investment percentage to 300% for smaller movies and 500% for bigger movies. But once the 300 or 500 percent is gone, it's gone.

 

I dunno, maybe we can vote on it.

[CJohn]

I don't think this changes are required. 

[DAJK]

I'm a bit on both sides. I like that there are a few changes being made, but at the same time, I agree with Grey Ghost, in that those of us who aren't in the lead really only have the chance to catch up if those who are miss out on the investment period. With much more time given for everyone, then pretty much everyone could get an investment and it would be difficult for those who are ahead to fall behind and those who are behind to get ahead. I do like the idea of increasing the % to 300 and 500 respectively. But then again, this is coming from someone who missed out on Deadpool

[CJohn]

Missing out on Deadpool was a killer, IMO. It killed the game for those who missed it. There is not much to do to fix that. 

[grey ghost]

I like a challenge so it's my mission to make a legendary comeback.

 

There's bound to be at least two more break outs this year to help catch up.

[Wrath]

As one of the lucky ones who got into Deadpool, I have to agree with GG above. The biggest imbalance in the game post-Deadpool isn't the risk of me crowding everyone out of the good movies, its that I've got flexibility. I mean, BvS is next week and it'll take 600M to fill. lucasbenica and I don't have even close to that much money added together. Even if we worked together we couldn't crowd everyone else out of BvS.

 

I'm not hoping to crowd everyone else out, I'm afraid that I'll (again) be slow on the draw, forget that it happens to be BvS buy-in night, and everyone else will crowd out *me*. Sure, that can happen to anyone too, but its a bigger deal for me because I can more thoroughly take advantage of it than most other folks in the game. In fact, if you watch my buying you'll see that I'm aggressively buying other stuff rather than saving up cash *because* I'm not totally confident I'll be on the ball enough to buy into BvS.

 

Expanding the window likes that probably helps me more than it helps anyone else in the game (except lucasbenica, obviously), because it *expands* my flexibility advantage. 

 

I'm personally kinda risk-averse, as my "never met a question I couldn't abstain from" approach to the Winter game attests. So one solution that occurs to me (and I'm certain its occurred to CJohn), is to call the game early, give lucasbenica and I joint victories, and then start it over again. There's a ton of logistical problems with this and I doubt most folks would be interested, but I'm always happy to take money off the table and call it a day so I figured I'd throw it out there.

 

Another possibility occurs to me. The fundamental flaw of the game is that if someone builds up a big lead, its kinda hard to catch up. Sure, you can pick better movies than them, but there aren't *that* many movies (this time of year, anyway) that are good bets to hit home runs. If you have $200M to work with, and another person has $300M, you'll make smart choices to catch up. Except the person with $300M will probably make all those same choices *and* pick up a couple gambles on the side that will probably end up being a net gain over the course of the game. Its hard to catch someone with a lead.

 

Anyway, the idea, and as a forewarning, it would cause some changes and might (or might not) be difficult to track (which would be a deal-breaker, imo), would be to change how investments are handled. Investing is handled the same as now, but when your movie makes money, you can only earn back as much as you initially invested. Anything a movie makes over that amount is skimmed off the top and counted as "Victory money".

 

So, lets say you invest $10M in Z2, and your share of it eventually makes $12M. How it would work is that you'd gradually get your $10M back to invest in other movies, and then you'd also get $2M, your profit off the movie, in "Victory dollars". At the end of the game, the winner is the person who has the most Victory dollars.

 

This would change some things. People would be a *lot* more careful about investing in movies, because investing in a money loser would really sting. Maybe you could withdraw your Victory dollars from the bank, but only enough to get you back to $100M. Also, since the total amount people have to invest wouldn't really go up, people would be much more strategic about their investments. Filling up BvS would take a serious chunk of the total investment dollars in the game, leaving much less competition for the Witches and Cloverfields of the world. People would have to make serious strategic decisions about what to invest in. All movies could probably max out at 100%, or maybe 150% for Blockbusters, just because there'd be far fewer dollars floating around.

 

Also, there would be far less "snowballing your way to victory". If you picked out a breakout-hit, you'd get your cash back faster to invest in other movies and you'd rack up a bunch of Victory dollars. But you wouldn't suddenly have $200M to invest when everyone else has $100M, so you'd have less of an on-going advantage.

 

If someone ends up losing all, or virtually all of their money, restarting at $100M would be a *lot* more useful than it is now (since you wouldn't be behind at all in investing capacity, and thus ability to make money. In fact, you'd have *more* cash to invest right away than anyone else since you wouldn't have money tied up in things already). However, the tradeoff is that you'd have to give up all your Victory dollars to do it, meaning there are more significant long-term consequences to starting over.

 

Anyway, just thought I'd toss that out as an idea.

Edited February 19, 2016 by Wrath

[grey ghost]

I think the game is fair and challenging enough.

 

Quite frankly, if you manage your money carefully and pick enough break out hits, you deserve to win.

 

Also. I think it's too early to give up.

 

If one of the leaders invest in two 150 m dollar movies like Alice In Woderland 2 and TMNT 2 and they both flop while missing out on a couple break outs, it will cut into their leads substantially.

 

Anyway, let's see what happens this year. If Wrath and Lucasbenica are first and second at the end then obviously changes need to be made because an early break out rigs the game too much.

[JJ-8]

All valid points.  Ok for now keep the rule as is and see how it plays out over the year.  

 

@CJohn - this isn't your first year and frankly a breakout doesn't give you the win though i  can't remember a breakout like this so early in the game.  You should know that it's possible catch it up... and also i should point out... BVS is 200m budget.. investing 200m in a single film this  early is dangerous.. it could  pay off yes, but some on here and yet to be convinced it can make the 400m+some are predicting...   if wrath and lucasbenica are smart yes they can position themselves to get there but a lot of time and money to be spent between now and the end of the year... it's  now a challenge to catch them!

 

There  will be other smaller hits around this time... and  for all we know divergent could  break out  or zootopia blows up bigger than expected etc etc... there  will  be other surprise hits and flops... it's the point of the game... 

 

I'll keepthis rule in the  back of  my mind for a future year maybe... it's trying to even the whole  problem of first in best dressed ... but  then it's alsothe great even upper if someone who has lots  of money can't be there to invest in a film to......

 

 

 

 

 

[lucasbenica]

I know its been settled but Id like to give a few of my thoughts.

 

I dont think a film should be given more than 100%. That only generates more and more fake money to the competition, when I think it should be more realistic. But then the game wouldnt be so inclusive, cause only the first person whos watching the clock would get it. Maybe if we could sorta auction the investment itd be more interesting and a little bit more realistic. It wouldnt be so based on luck. There could be a 48 hours auction where the highest bidder would take the investment.

 

For example, BvS has a $200m budget and half of that ($100m) would be the initial bid, so 1% = $1m. Let's say that these would be the offers made in the 48 hour period:
 

saturn offered $1.2m/% and wants 20%
jupiter $2.5m/50%
mars $1.8m/100%
mercury $2.3m/30%
earth $2.2m/25%

we would give the percentage asked for the highest bidders, so jupiter would get 50% (paying $125m), mercury 30% ($69m) and earth 20% (not the 25% he asked, cause then it would sum up over 100%; for $44m). so the investments would sum 100% and $238m. in this case it would be higher than the original budget but it's a film that will give a large profit, so the players would take their chances. making the initial bid as half of the original budget would also open up a lot of more of investment options. currently there are only a few good options to invest. if more players join the game, it would be even harder to get an investment. *impossible, as a matter of fact.

so thered be more options to invest, thered be less groundbreakingDeadpoolalike films cause players will pay more for high grossing films therefore making their profits a little bit lower and they would not simply skyrocket players. 

Edited February 20, 2016 by lucasbenica