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FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM | 580.0 M overseas ● 814.0 M worldwide

By kayumanggi, in International Box Office

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kayumanggi Cinematic Universe

kayumanggi

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1 hour ago, newbie BO buff said:

 

I was planning to see this on Wednesday, the regular opening day here. But then things came up and had to delay until Monday. Damn.

 

Movies regularly open here on Wednesdays. I don't know why this opens on a Thursday but it is actually perfect for me since I don't have late night work on that day.

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Jason Box Office Gold

Jason

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On 8/18/2016 at 3:27 AM, James said:

Are those 500-550m figures adjusted for 3D?

 

I've now adjusted all eight HP films for both exchange rate changes and ticket price increases. I haven't adjusted for 3D specifically because I can't find the data needed to make accurate adjustments. (Percentage of tickets sold in 3D by market, and price difference for 3D compared to regular by market.) That being said, it will partly be taken into account for in the average ticket price increase. Full details on methods for ER calculations are here, list of ticket prices is here, and full details of methods for ticket price calculations are here.

 

Exchange rates are current as of November 11. "WW", "WW ER", and "WW TP" columns show respectively the original, exchange rate adjusted, and ticket price adjusted worldwide grosses. The "Dom" and "Adj D" columns show respectively the original and ticket price adjusted domestic grosses. The "OS", "OS ER", and "OS TP" columns show respectively the original, ER adjusted, and ticket price adjusted OS grosses. The "%Tr" column shows the percentage of the OS gross from individually tracked territories with exchange rate data. The "%Ti" column shows the percentage of the OS gross from tracked territories with ticket price data. The adjustment for the remainder of the OS gross is extrapolated from the territories where data is available. Adjusted figures are shown in bold.

 

Quote
Title Year WW WW ER WW TP Dom Adj D OS OS ER OS TP %Tr %Tic
Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone 2001 $974.8 $1,056 $1,490 $317.6 $481 $657 $738 $1,009 81.5% 65.1%
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets 2002 $879.0 $904 $1,276 $262.0 $387 $617 $642 $889 90.1% 72.9%
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 2004 $796.7 $739 $1,016 $249.5 $346 $547 $490 $670 90.9% 68.8%
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 2005 $896.9 $839 $1,129 $290.0 $389 $607 $549 $740 93.0% 85.8%
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 2007 $939.9 $805 $1,017 $292.0 $365 $647.9 $513 $652 99.8% 90.6%
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 2009 $934.4 $794 $927 $302.0 $348 $632.5 $492 $578 96.3% 88.5%
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 2010 $960.3 $803 $885 $296.0 $323 $664.3 $507 $562 100.0% 92.0%
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 2011 $1,341.5 $1,087 $1,185 $381.0 $413 $960.5 $706 $772 96.6% 86.9%

 

The figures do not take into account market growth in China that is a result of rising admissions rather than ticket prices. There's really no good way of doing that, since the expansion of the Chinese market has not resulted in a consistently proportional growth in the grosses of films (at least among Hollywood releases).

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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

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Harry Potter in Spain in order to know how popular was here and how much you can expect for FB:

 

Film: Admissions / Euros (Dollars adjusted by inflation and ER)

Sorcerer's Stone: 6,312,765 / €27,691,316 ($46,114,241)
Chamber of Secrets: 5,217,643 / €23,788,452 ($38,114,463)
Prisoner of Azkaban: 3,468,878 / €16,296,891 ($25,339,875)
Globet of Fire: 3,892,056 / €19,874,235 ($28,431,156)
Order of the Phoenix: 3,225,652 / €17,305,231 ($23,563,129)
Half-Blood Prince: 2,409,754 / €14,044,103 ($17,603,059)
Deathly Hallows I: 2,159,042 / €13,807,174 ($15,771,628)
Deathly Hallows II: 2,312,059 / €15,949,023 ($16,889,405)

 

@Jason: Do these data fit with your calculations?

Edited by peludo
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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

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37 minutes ago, eXtacy said:

800m worldwide seems like a reasonable prediction to me. I think initial numbers will be big and everyone will be screaming a possible billion but it will settle down in its second weekends.

Pretty agree. An scenario of 250 DOM / 550 OS / 800 WW seems quite plausible.

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Jason Box Office Gold

Jason

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, peludo said:

Harry Potter in Spain in order to know how popular was here and how much you can expect for FB:

 

Film: Admissions / Euros (Dollars adjusted by inflation and ER)

Sorcerer's Stone: 6,312,765 / €27,691,316 ($46,114,241)
Chamber of Secrets: 5,217,643 / €23,788,452 ($38,114,463)
Prisoner of Azkaban: 3,468,878 / €16,296,891 ($25,339,875)
Globet of Fire: 3,892,056 / €19,874,235 ($28,431,156)
Order of the Phoenix: 3,225,652 / €17,305,231 ($23,563,129)
Half-Blood Prince: 2,409,754 / €14,044,103 ($17,603,059)
Deathly Hallows I: 2,159,042 / €13,807,174 ($15,771,628)
Deathly Hallows II: 2,312,059 / €15,949,023 ($16,889,405)

 

@Jason: Do these data fit with your calculations?

 

Quote
Country HPI HPII HPIII HPIV HPV HPVI DH1 DH2
Spain $41.0 $33.7 $21.9 $25.8 $21.0 $15.3 $13.7 $15.3

 

My figures are about 10-15% lower across the board.

 

Your grosses in Euros are usually just a little bit higher (0-4%) than what I get from the exchange rate conversion of BOM figures. Are you getting them from a local source?

 

The remaining difference must be the result of the inflation adjustment.

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peludo Summer Tentpole

peludo

Posted
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53 minutes ago, Jason said:

 

 

My figures are about 10-15% lower across the board.

 

Your grosses in Euros are usually just a little bit higher (0-4%) than what I get from the exchange rate conversion of BOM figures. Are you getting them from a local source?

 

The remaining difference must be the result of the inflation adjustment.

Yes, figures in euros come from Ministry of Culture. And I am using an average ticket price of €6.73 (average of top 50 last weekend).

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Jason Box Office Gold

Jason

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4 minutes ago, peludo said:

Yes, figures in euros come from Ministry of Culture. And I am using an average ticket price of €6.73 (average of top 50 last weekend).

 

I thought so. BOM often stops tracking grosses in individual territories before their box office runs are completed there, which is one of the reasons a portion of the total overseas gross of films ends up being untracked.

 

The ticket price is substantially higher than what my spreadsheet churned out based on previous inflation, which actually predicted a slight decrease from 2015 because of ticket prices falling from 2013-2015. It makes sense that the fall in ticket prices has reversed though, since the general trend of deflation in Spain reversed this year as well. Which I hope is good news for the Spanish economy.

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Quigley Box Office Gold

Quigley

Posted
Posted (edited)

This is the number of admissions that each of the Harry Potter films sold in Greece in chronological order. As you can see, the franchise has been in decline from the very start. The last four films sold an average of 360K admissions.

 

Harry Potter
Title 4-day weekend (Thu-Sun) Release date Total admissions Multiple Notes
Harry Potter and the Philosopher's Stone – Fri, 30/11/2001 850,000 –  
Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets – Fri, 29/11/2002 650,000 –  
Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban 173,800 Wed, 08/09/2004 396,000 2.28 5-day: 212,000
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire 178,200 Thu, 24/11/2005 443,200 2.49  
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 101,200* Tue, 21/08/2007 394,301 3.90 6-day: 181,000
Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince 94,100 Tue, 25/08/2009 312,800 3.32 6-day: 169,321
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 1 121,390 Thu, 18/11/2010 381,400 3.14  
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 104,660 Wed, 13/07/2011 351,908 3.36 5-day: 155,010


*estimate


As for 'Fantastic Beasts', I think it is unlikely that it will reverse the trend. It would be quite surprising if its opening topped 100K admissions. More on the Greek thread in the coming days.

Edited by Quigley
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newbie BO buff Sleeper Hit

newbie BO buff

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I can't see the movie tomorrow or this weekend, and have to delay until Monday soonest.

However I can see that the demand is pretty high. Presale has opened, and I took a peek at one of the busiest, XXI Kota Kasablanka. They have it at studio 4, that's the best one, equipped with 3D HFR when Hobbit 1 came to town. 

Best seats are already taken, about 40% sold.

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Aristis Box Office Gold

Aristis

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Harry Potter in Germany:

 

Harry Potter 1     12.565.007

Harry Potter 2     9.702.824

Harry Potter 3     6.627.175

Harry Potter 4     8.009.941

Harry Potter 5     7.103.458

Harry Potter 6     6.213.225

Harry Potter 7-1  5.835.503

Harry Potter 7-2  6.468.501

 

The 1st, 2nd and 4th hold (in this order) the Top3 Opening Weekends with 2.590.464, 2.489.952 and 2.400.158. And HP1 is the 5th biggest movie since 1966.

 

If we can trust forecasts FB can be lucky if it reaches the half of the last one... But maybe they are wrong like many are these days (not only BO related) ;)

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Giesi Box Office Gold

Giesi

Posted
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8 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Harry Potter in Germany:

 

Harry Potter 1     12.565.007

Harry Potter 2     9.702.824

Harry Potter 3     6.627.175

Harry Potter 4     8.009.941

Harry Potter 5     7.103.458

Harry Potter 6     6.213.225

Harry Potter 7-1  5.835.503

Harry Potter 7-2  6.468.501

 

The 1st, 2nd and 4th hold (in this order) the Top3 Opening Weekends with 2.590.464, 2.489.952 and 2.400.158. And HP1 is the 5th biggest movie since 1966.

 

If we can trust forecasts FB can be lucky if it reaches the half of the last one... But maybe they are wrong like many are these days (not only BO related) ;)

Hopefully either FB or RO can achieve over 4Mio adm, otherwise, I fear, Willkommen bei den Hartmanns will become the #1 movie this year

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Fullbuster Global Phenomenon

Fullbuster

Posted
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26 minutes ago, Aristis said:

Harry Potter in Germany:

 

Harry Potter 1     12.565.007

Harry Potter 2     9.702.824

Harry Potter 3     6.627.175

Harry Potter 4     8.009.941

Harry Potter 5     7.103.458

Harry Potter 6     6.213.225

Harry Potter 7-1  5.835.503

Harry Potter 7-2  6.468.501

 

The 1st, 2nd and 4th hold (in this order) the Top3 Opening Weekends with 2.590.464, 2.489.952 and 2.400.158. And HP1 is the 5th biggest movie since 1966.

 

If we can trust forecasts FB can be lucky if it reaches the half of the last one... But maybe they are wrong like many are these days (not only BO related) ;)

 

Wow, this decline admissions-wise :jeb!:

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Fullbuster Global Phenomenon

Fullbuster

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1 minute ago, Purple Minion said:

"...$160M-$205M worldwide in its first weekend per industry estimates.  Broken out that’s $70M-$80M in 4,000-plus U.S./Canada locations and another $90M-$125M overseas. "

 

http://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-global-box-office-opening-1201854618/

 

That seems largely possible, and great reviews should help :)

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James Summer Tentpole

James

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Purple Minion said:

"...$160M-$205M worldwide in its first weekend per industry estimates.  Broken out that’s $70M-$80M in 4,000-plus U.S./Canada locations and another $90M-$125M overseas. "

 

http://deadline.com/2016/11/fantastic-beasts-and-where-to-find-them-global-box-office-opening-1201854618/

Those numbers would be horrendous! On the low end that's not even 1/3 of DH2' WW OW.

Considering it lacks only Japan and China, anything under 250m WW for the OW should be considered a failure. It better go over 300m.

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