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kayumanggi

FANTASTIC BEASTS AND WHERE TO FIND THEM | 580.0 M overseas ● 814.0 M worldwide

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kayumanggi    23,902

HARRY POTTER AND THE PRISONER OF AZKABAN overseas gross: 547.1 M

 

Will this make more than the lowest in the HARRY POTTER series?

Edited by kayumanggi
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Heretic    9,870

This will be huge overseas, especially UK and Europe. Plus expansion of Asian and Latin America markets. 600m+

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James    8,269

900m OS. Mark my words. It will happen. This will be hyped to obscene levels.  

Edited by James
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Gokai Red    741

All of the HP movies would probably adjust to 850/900+ with market expansion/China/3D, so I could see this easily surpassing 800 OS if marketed properly. WB has some of the best marketing around so it could easily happen. For now though, my personal prediction is 800m, 150 of which coming from China.

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James    8,269
4 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

$800m ww total. This has even less in common than The Hobbit did with LotR, why would it be bigger than Philosophers Stone?

Well, first of all, I think the HP fanbase is a bit bigger than LOTR's. Second, we received one movie every other year for 10 years. And now there have been 5 years since the last HP.As for why would it be bigger than PS: 3D for one and especially expanding markets. 

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SchumacherFTW    3,840
15 minutes ago, James said:

Well, first of all, I think the HP fanbase is a bit bigger than LOTR's. Second, we received one movie every other year for 10 years. And now there have been 5 years since the last HP.As for why would it be bigger than PS: 3D for one and especially expanding markets. 

Seeing as RotK was bigger than any Potter film WW excluding 3D, I'd say Rings technically had a bigger base audience than Potter did. You can't expect a spin off to reach as many people. If its as big as Goblet of Fire that would be an unqualified success for this. 

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peludo    3,908

I feel the same "problems" for this than Hobbit. I have not read the book, but I know that is basically quite similar than the LOTR prequel: same universe, 70 years before Harry Potter action, different characters (I do not know if there is some common characters), although same director... It can reach the billion, but it will be quite hard, since I do not see it making tons of money DOM (probably around 250-275). However, I can see it doing 600-700 OS, what would already be great for a spin-off.

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James    8,269
19 minutes ago, peludo said:

I feel the same "problems" for this than Hobbit. I have not read the book, but I know that is basically quite similar than the LOTR prequel: same universe, 70 years before Harry Potter action, different characters (I do not know if there is some common characters), although same director... It can reach the billion, but it will be quite hard, since I do not see it making tons of money DOM (probably around 250-275). However, I can see it doing 600-700 OS, what would already be great for a spin-off.

Lol, there is no plot in the book. Fantastic Bests is an encyclopedia of fantastic animals in the HP universe. There are no characters or story. You are just told that the writer of the encyclopedia is Newt. That is why no one knows what will happen in the movie. 

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peludo    3,908
1 minute ago, James said:

Lol, there is no plot in the book. Fantastic Bests is an encyclopedia of fantastic animals in the HP universe. There are no characters or story. You are just told that the writer of the encyclopedia is Newt. That is why no one knows what will happen in the movie. 

So, it is more similar to Silmarillion than to Hobbit?

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James    8,269
3 hours ago, peludo said:

So, it is more similar to Silmarillion than to Hobbit?

That's really not the point. This will be marketed as the return to that universe. It will have HP written all over it even if HP is not in it. And you have to consider a fanbase so loyal that basically all the movies did the same money (except for the last one which exploded). And we talk 8 movies. Franchises nowadays have trouble maintaining their grosses after their second outing, let alone the eight. I think this will play way closer to Star Wars. I don't mean in terms of BO cume, but with multiple generations coming to see the movie. There is a reason why the series is still in Top 3 bestsellers in the US 9 years after the last book was published.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2016-04-03/series-books/list.html

 

The cross-generational appeal will be enormous. Really, SW is the only comparison we have. Of course, that had 40 smth years on it's side, this has way less, so for now we don't have 5 generations to see this. But HP fans, now in their late 20's or 30's, will take their kids to see this. It will be the new HP for a new generation. I really don't see less than 1B WW. The curiosity alone will push it to that and I trust Rowling and Yates to deliver a good movie like before.   

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peludo    3,908
4 minutes ago, James said:

That's really not the point. This will be marketed as the return to that universe. It will have HP written all over it even if HP is not in it. And you have to consider a fanbase so loyal that basically all the movies did the same money (except for the last one which exploded). And we talk 8 movies. Franchises nowadays have trouble maintaining their grosses after their second outing, let alone the eight. I think this will play way closer to Star Wars. I don't mean in terms of BO cume, but with multiple generations coming to see the movie. There is a reason why the series is still in Top 3 bestsellers in the US 9 years after the last book was published.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/best-sellers-books/2016-04-03/series-books/list.html

 

The cross-generational appeal will be enormous. Really, SW is the only comparison we have. Of course, that had 40 smth years on it's side, this has way less, so for now we don't have 5 generations to see this. But HP fans, now in their late 20's or 30's, will take their kids to see this. It will be the new HP for a new generation. I really don't see less than 1B WW. The curiosity alone will push it to that and I trust Rowling and Yates to deliver a good movie like before.   

Some of us thought the same about the Hobbit...

 

Of course, Harry Potter was incredibly constant in gross, but not in admissions. It is not the same to make 800-900 in 2001-2002 than in 2010. DH2 exploded and it is maybe the 3rd-4th most attended of the series (behind HP1 and HP2 for sure, and maybe on par to HP4). But the same universe is not the same story. I thought like you with Hobbit, but I commited the mistake. IMHO, similar amount to HP1-HP7 (excepting Azakaban) is the most likely prediction, both DOM and OS. (250-275 / 600s-700). Chance for billion? sure. Locked? not even close.

 

Of course, I can be wrong, but right now, and unless it becomes a masterpiece, I can not see more.

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James    8,269
4 minutes ago, peludo said:

Some of us thought the same about the Hobbit...

 

Of course, Harry Potter was incredibly constant in gross, but not in admissions. It is not the same to make 800-900 in 2001-2002 than in 2010. DH2 exploded and it is maybe the 3rd-4th most attended of the series (behind HP1 and HP2 for sure, and maybe on par to HP4). But the same universe is not the same story. I thought like you with Hobbit, but I commited the mistake. IMHO, similar amount to HP1-HP7 (excepting Azakaban) is the most likely prediction, both DOM and OS. (250-275 / 600s-700). Chance for billion? sure. Locked? not even close.

 

Of course, I can be wrong, but right now, and unless it becomes a masterpiece, I can not see more.

The most boggling thing about TH's run is Japan. LOTR, just as HP and SW, was huge there, but TH could not do the same. I think/hope FB retains a big part of HP's gross. 70-80m from there would go a long way. Add a moderate increase in China and things look pretty bright. I just want to see some material. A trailer or something. I thought we'd receive it with BvS but it seems WB keeps us waiting. 

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a2knet    11,303

275 dom + 625 os = 900m ww, for now

I actually am betting on it doing more than AUJ ww, and have a club for it, but being "conservative" right now.

Edited by a2knet

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Aristis    864

But don't forget that ER in 2011 was extremely favorable. I don't know where DH2 is when it's calculated with todays ER.

If China and Japan make big amounts of money the movie is safe. But Japans DH2 gross would be about $35M less, GB $15M, Ger again $15M less and so on...

 

It really has potential to be big. But $1B is much even today. I think $250M/$600M/$850M should be safe unless it's totally crap. But it won't gross more than $300M/$850M/$1150M. I think Fantasy isn't as big as it was nowadays :(

 

But I could be wrong as many were with JW or SW :D

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peludo    3,908
15 minutes ago, James said:

The most boggling thing about TH's run is Japan. LOTR, just as HP and SW, was huge there, but TH could not do the same. I think/hope FB retains a big part of HP's gross. 70-80m from there would go a long way. Add a moderate increase in China and things look pretty bright. I just want to see some material. A trailer or something. I thought we'd receive it with BvS but it seems WB keeps us waiting. 

Yes, Japan did horrible with Hobbit :(. With a more decent gross there the whole trilogy could have done 1 billion each.

 

Relative to China and FB, this should go well over $100m. DH2 already did $60m in 2011 and looking at figures that LOTR-HP did in 2001-2003 there, I think both franchises were equally liked, more or less. Considering that Hobbit 3 already did $120m last year and with 5 years inflation since DH2, it could reach $150m, maybe more.

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