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MOANA | 394.6 M overseas ● 643.3 M worldwide

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2 hours ago, yjs said:

 

I don't think people expecting $450M OS (assuming that Moana will do about $250M DOM) is that crazy, especially given the BH6's $435M OS and Tangled's $390M OS.

 

BH6 had an overall very strong performance in East Asia but was much weaker in Europe, while Tangled had a much stronger performance in Europe but faltered weak in East Asia (Japan had a tsunami, Korea still avoided non-Dreamworks animated films like a plague back then and it wasn't even released in China).  

 

So if Moana, as a similar princess musical, does similar or even a little less than what Tangled did in Europe, $450M OS doesn't feel like a too out-of-reach goal to have, especially when it will have much bigger Japan/China/Korea grosses than Tangled's abysmal $40M total from those three markets, even with China's major underperformance of Moana's. 

 

Saying $500M WW is a win for it seems more like lowballing it, honestly. it's more like a Hotel Transylvania 2 or a Rio 2 kinda number.. think the "original" argument is more for the movies like the LEGO Movie, not this. Moana is a little more high profile than that and WDAS does have a strong brand power in Europe, East Asia and South America, especially post-Frozen. (Altho it wasn't like you made a $500M prediction for this one, I think $650M is a reasonable prediction of yours for this.)

 

And as much as China is a key market, underperforming there doesn't mean the end of the world, either. Dory($540M OS/$38M China), IO($501M OS/$15M China), Frozen($875M OS/$48M China) Toy Story 3 ($652M OS/No China release) Tangled ($390M OS/No China release).. all did perfectly fine.

 

 

I understand that, but people were throwing 1b so easily a few days back. Side note, Moana opened here this past weekend, with about half of Frozen's numbers and also about 20-30% weaker than Tangled, Zootopia and BH6. Doubt it means much, but it's not an encouraging sign.  

Edited by James
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well, China aside, there were three territories reported on Mojo so far plus New Zealand where it had a limited release, and the OW breakdown looks like this:

 

Lithuania: Moana $65K, Zoo $70K, TJB $32K, Dory $30K / Pets $100K, Trolls 91K, Ice Age $170K, The Angry Birds $120K, KFP3 $85K / BH6 $96K ($86K adj.), Tangled $86K ($70K adj.)

Portugal: Moana $250K, Zoo $340K, TJB $210K, Dory $327K / Pets $965K, Trolls $233K, Ice Age $355K, The Angry Birds $345K, KFP3 $341K  /BH6 $262K ($235K adj,), Tangled $450K ($367k adj.)

Slovenia: Moana $36K, Zoo $33K, TJB $11K, Dory $31K / Pets $60K, Trolls $76K, Ice Age $111K, The Angry Birds $110K, KFP3 $67K /BH6 $18K ($16K adj.), Tangled $65K ($53K adj.)

 

All in all, not too Disney-friendly places these markets, where non-Disney animated films do way better. I wouldn't say it shows a distinctive pattern that it dropped from Zoo's or BH6's OW grosses but it does fall a little short of Tangled's.

 

Anyway, I don't think that this will be an indicator of how it'll do in other Disney-friendly major European markets, not just yet. (FRA+GER+ITA+ESP+UK). Looking forward to the expansion next week with the openings in France, UK, Russia, Spain and Mexico, then we'll get the rough idea.

 

But then again I haven't thought about the exchange rate and now THAT gets me worried. US Dollar is way too strong these days. Some of the South American currencies took the hit which is also bad, South America+Mexico is a very important market for this one.

When Tangled and Frozen were released the ER was $1=0.74703 Euro and  $1=0.72695 Euro, respectively. Even when BH6 opened it was $1=0.82074 Euro. Now it's $1=0.91435 Euro, and that's about 20~25% difference from the Tangled era there. And honestly I don't see Moana doing 20~25% better in ticket sales in Europe than Tangled. :( 

Edited by yjs
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2 hours ago, yjs said:

But then again I haven't thought about the exchange rate and now THAT gets me worried. US Dollar is way too strong these days. Some of the South American currencies took the hit which is also bad, South America+Mexico is a very important market for this one.

When Tangled and Frozen were released the ER was $1=0.74703 Euro and  $1=0.72695 Euro, respectively. Even when BH6 opened it was $1=0.82074 Euro. Now it's $1=0.91435 Euro, and that's about 20~25% difference from the Tangled era there. And honestly I don't see Moana doing 20~25% better in ticket sales in Europe than Tangled. :( 

 

Here's a regional adjustment that includes ticket price inflation as well as the change in USD exchange rate. Will hopefully make it easier to make ticket sale comparisons. Zootopia is adjusted by exchange rate only, since it was released this year. Figures are in US$ millions.

 

Quote
Region Tangled T-Adj. Frozen F-Adj. BH6 BH6-Adj. Zootopia Zoo-Adj.
Worldwide $592 $545 $1,277 $1,173 $658 $636 $1,024 n/a
United States + Canada $201 $219 $401 $422 $223 $234 $341 n/a
All OS Territories $391 $326 $876 $750 $435 $401 $683 $658
Asia $52 $44 $389 $367 $210 $204 $367 $353
Europe $236 $197 $318 $245 $134 $117 $218 $210
Latin America $68 $57 $90 $71 $58 $50 $56 $55
Oceania $25 $21 $31 $26 $20 $18 $24 $24
Middle East $6 $6 $12 $11 $6 $6 $5 $5
Africa $3 $2 $3 $3 $2 $2 $1 $2
Untracked $1 -$2 $33 $28 $5 $5 $11 $10
China n/a n/a $48.240 $40 $83.766 $72 $235.591 $222.6
Japan $31.081 $25 $249.037 $239 $76.826 $86 $70.127 $67.7
South Korea $9.376 $10 $76.696 $75 $20.137 $20 $31.259 $32.8
Asia - C/J/SK $11.740 $10 $14.796 $13 $28.943 $26 $29.642 $29.7

 

(Untracked adjusted gross for Tangled is slightly negative because of the regional estimates adding up to slightly more than the overall adjustment.)

Edited by Jason
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13 hours ago, yjs said:

But then again I haven't thought about the exchange rate and now THAT gets me worried. US Dollar is way too strong these days. Some of the South American currencies took the hit which is also bad, South America+Mexico is a very important market for this one.

When Tangled and Frozen were released the ER was $1=0.74703 Euro and  $1=0.72695 Euro, respectively. Even when BH6 opened it was $1=0.82074 Euro. Now it's $1=0.91435 Euro, and that's about 20~25% difference from the Tangled era there. And honestly I don't see Moana doing 20~25% better in ticket sales in Europe than Tangled. :( 

 

In a sense, the ER should make you happy cuz these results clearly show that Moana is doing well, but the ER is masking that result.

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1 minute ago, Quigley said:

 

In a sense, the ER should make you happy cuz these results clearly show that Moana is doing well, but the ER is masking that result.

yeah, I like how the way my country measures the box office success with the admission numbers, altho it also has its flaws (neglecting 3D/IMAX premium for example)

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If I read this correctly, CineBox states it's the third biggest opening of the year in France
 
 
Quote

 

Premier Jour France des films sortis le 30 novembre 2016
VAIANA, LA LEGENDE DU BOUT DU MONDE réalise le 3éme démarrage de l'année au classement Premier Jour France ... (01/12/2016)

 

 
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1 hour ago, lmja said:

I don't think Frozen's OD in France was a record. Maybe the 4th weekend on par of OW was.

I didn't mean to say Frozen's OD was a "record" in France, what I meant was Moana's OD was bigger than Frozen's OD. (Moana OD: 136,000 / Frozen 130,365) that could have been misleading.

Edited by yjs
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1 hour ago, lmja said:

I don't think Frozen's OD in France was a record. Maybe the 4th weekend on par of OW was.

 

Maybe you should stop expecting records everywhere? An animated movie released a day when kids, teens, students are at school won't get a record, with these parameters taken into account Moana and Frozen did very well, period!

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