Rogue One: A Star Wars Story | 1B WW

[Gavin Feng]

3 hours ago, terrestrial said:

@peludo @Heretic @Gavin Feng

 

Do you have the difference in exchange rates in comparison to SW 7 for country .... at hand? I mean the percentages?

Or with the exchange rates, so I could do maybe some sort of small chart so users can quote it from here to the threads e.. at dom (see this weekend at dom and later dailies/weekends probably too, and the SW R1 threads / clubs)

 

I read repeatedly in the dom area people not understanding e.g. OS OW expectations (totals too), based on not knowing e.g. the exchange rate changes.

Euro,British £, Yuan, AUS$, Rubel, Japan Yen, what else? Maybe countries like Mexico, Brazil, Sweden, Poland, ...  South Korea too already?

I think Indonesia might be interesting too, but BOM has no details to compare to in its foreign charts.

 

Did someone calculate the SW 7 previews /OD / OW / total for the Eurozone as a sum? Or other regions?

 

Who also to ask, I am so bad with names, I know I forgot at least 2 other usernames.

 

Do you really wanna listen to my advice?

[terrestrial]

18 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Do you really wanna listen to my advice?

Why not?

[Gavin Feng]

6 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Why not?

Alright.

 

As far as I know, no powerful opponents will appear before Spring Festival. And the travel rush(many live in first-tier cities will come back to hometown for reuniting with family which mostly is located in third and fourth tier cities) will help Rogue One’s drop of Second and Third weekend(less than -60% for Mon, -10% for Tue-Thu and Sunday but +35%-60% on Saturday). 22 days for Rogue One(Jan.6 - 27, many watch TV on eve, and screen showings will be cut to 0.01% from first day of SF)

 

For the time being, levels of interest is not high, and I hope the film can keep the boom in US and Europe so that more audience will know it just like TFA. 

 

The most important thing is RT. Although Chinese seldom care about RT and MTC, it still make sense to box office for most time. 

 

optimistic prediction

 

 ￥150m OD including midnights, ￥480m OW, ￥1,000m lifetime gross($140m).

[peludo]

6 hours ago, terrestrial said:

@peludo @Heretic @Gavin Feng

 

Do you have the difference in exchange rates in comparison to SW 7 for country .... at hand? I mean the percentages?

Or with the exchange rates, so I could do maybe some sort of small chart so users can quote it from here to the threads e.. at dom (see this weekend at dom and later dailies/weekends probably too, and the SW R1 threads / clubs)

 

I read repeatedly in the dom area people not understanding e.g. OS OW expectations (totals too), based on not knowing e.g. the exchange rate changes.

Euro,British £, Yuan, AUS$, Rubel, Japan Yen, what else? Maybe countries like Mexico, Brazil, Sweden, Poland, ...  South Korea too already?

I think Indonesia might be interesting too, but BOM has no details to compare to in its foreign charts.

 

Did someone calculate the SW 7 previews /OD / OW / total for the Eurozone as a sum? Or other regions?

 

Who also to ask, I am so bad with names, I know I forgot at least 2 other usernames.

 

I add @Jason. He has very good and updated data about this

[terrestrial]

@Jason do you happen to have data see my bigger post earlier about changed ex-change rates since SW 7, comparison details of SW 7,... per country or currency region?

 

It's about I (or whoever wants to do it) could write a kind of chart, like China, SW 7 preview / OD / OW / total / currency fell lets say 10% or the same for AUS, , rate grew xx% since SW 7...

 

= I think it might help people not into OS to understand better to 'judge' what SW R1 ~ accomplishes

 

[Jason]

7 hours ago, terrestrial said:

@peludo @Heretic @Gavin Feng

 

Do you have the difference in exchange rates in comparison to SW 7 for country .... at hand? I mean the percentages?

Or with the exchange rates, so I could do maybe some sort of small chart so users can quote it from here to the threads e.. at dom (see this weekend at dom and later dailies/weekends probably too, and the SW R1 threads / clubs)

 

I read repeatedly in the dom area people not understanding e.g. OS OW expectations (totals too), based on not knowing e.g. the exchange rate changes.

Euro,British £, Yuan, AUS$, Rubel, Japan Yen, what else? Maybe countries like Mexico, Brazil, Sweden, Poland, ...  South Korea too already?

I think Indonesia might be interesting too, but BOM has no details to compare to in its foreign charts.

 

Did someone calculate the SW 7 previews /OD / OW / total for the Eurozone as a sum? Or other regions?

 

Who also to ask, I am so bad with names, I know I forgot at least 2 other usernames.

 

This table might be what you're looking for. It has the original and exchange-rate adjusted OS grosses for SW7 on a regional and country-by-country basis ("TFA" and "TFA-A", respectively) as well as the original and exchange-rate adjusted OW ("TFA-OW" and "TFA-OWA"). All figures are in US$ millions. Exchange rate adjustment is current as of December 9.

 

Quote

Region	TFA	TFA-A	TFA-OW	TFA-OWA
All OS Territories	$1,132	$1,094	$281	$271
Asia	$297.0	$295	$85.7	$83
Europe	$619.4	$585	$153.3	$145
Latin America	$93.9	$92	$30.5	$29
Oceania	$77.2	$80	$23.6	$25
Middle East	$16.1	$15	$5.0	$5
Africa	$3.5	$4	$1.1	$1
Untracked	$25	$24	$34	$33
Country	TFA	TFA-A	TFA-OW	TFA-OWA
Asia	$297.0	$295	$85.7	$83
China	$124.159	$116.6	$52.348	$49.2
Hong Kong	$11.082	$11.076	$3.536	$3.534
India	$4.517	$4.428	n/a	n/a
Japan	$97.863	$103.673	$10.158	$10.762
Malaysia	$6.629	$6.415	$2.870	$2.778
Philippines	$8.176	$7.764	$3.973	$3.772
Singapore	$7.154	$7.088	$2.580	$2.556
South Korea	$24.142	$24.388	$6.707	$6.775
Taiwan	$6.465	$6.666	$1.879	$1.937
Thailand	$5.946	$6.018	$1.629	$1.649
Vietnam	$0.896	$0.878	n/a	n/a
Europe	$619.4	$585	$153.3	$145
Austria	$9.379	$9.172	$1.973	$1.929
Belgium	$11.034	$10.790	$2.962	$2.897
Bulgaria	$2.347	$2.295	$0.641	$0.626
Croatia	$1.246	$1.236	n/a	n/a
Czech Republic	$3.880	$3.792	$1.502	$1.467
Denmark	$11.987	$11.756	n/a	n/a
Finland	$7.879	$7.705	$1.697	$1.659
France	$88.527	$86.574	$21.378	$20.907
Germany	$111.351	$108.894	$27.227	$26.626
Greece	$3.406	$3.331	$1.109	$1.085
Hungary	$6.516	$6.353	$1.508	$1.471
Iceland	$0.906	$1.063	$0.189	$0.222
Italy	$28.214	$27.592	$7.483	$7.318
Latvia	$0.425	$0.416	n/a	n/a
Lithuania	$0.564	$0.551	n/a	n/a
Netherlands	$15.660	$15.314	$2.769	$2.708
Norway	$8.875	$9.205	n/a	n/a
Poland	$16.685	$15.671	n/a	n/a
Portugal	$3.902	$3.816	$1.071	$1.047
Romania	$3.406	$3.337	$0.960	$0.941
Russia - CIS	$25.952	$28.936	$12.400	$13.826
Serbia & Montenegro	$0.711	$0.685	n/a	n/a
Slovakia	$1.137	$1.112	$0.514	$0.502
Slovenia	$0.579	$0.566	$0.151	$0.148
Spain	$36.297	$35.496	$8.689	$8.497
Sweden	$21.347	$20.876	$3.945	$3.858
Switzerland (French)	$4.181	$4.088	$1.029	$1.006
Switzerland (German)	$7.979	$7.803	$2.309	$2.258
Ukraine	$2.509	$2.295	$1.130	$1.033
United Kingdom	$182.475	$153.972	$50.687	$42.770
Latin America	$93.9	$92	$30.5	$29
Argentina	$8.685	$7.272	$2.558	$2.142
Bolivia	$1.869	$1.846	$0.513	$0.507
Brazil	$27.812	$32.426	$8.162	$9.516
Chile	$8.463	$9.067	$2.339	$2.505
Colombia	$4.766	$5.296	$1.574	$1.749
Ecuador	$3.212	$3.212	$0.993	$0.993
Mexico	$27.191	$22.749	$8.118	$6.791
Peru	$6.128	$6.083	$2.280	$2.263
Uruguay	$0.469	$0.485	$0.063	$0.065
Venezuela	$5.354	$3.383	$3.925	$2.480
Oceania	$77.2	$80	$23.6	$25
Australia	$67.327	$69.798	$20.597	$21.353
New Zealand	$9.860	$10.472	$3.035	$3.223
Middle East	$16.1	$15	$5.0	$5
Egypt	$0.154	$0.066	$0.036	$0.016
Israel	$3.385	$3.460	$1.069	$1.093
Lebanon	$0.606	$0.608	$0.127	$0.127
Oman	$0.050	$0.050	$0.012	$0.012
Turkey	$5.821	$4.903	$1.824	$1.536
United Arab Emirates	$6.053	$6.053	$1.953	$1.953
Africa	$3.5	$4	$1.1	$1
Kenya	$0.286	$0.287	n/a	n/a
South Africa	$3.207	$3.531	$1.149	$1.265

 

[terrestrial]

2 minutes ago, Jason said:

This table might be what you're looking for. It has the original and exchange-rate adjusted OS grosses for SW7 on a regional and country-by-country basis ("TFA" and "TFA-A", respectively) as well as the original and exchange-rate adjusted OW ("TFA-OW" and "TFA-OWA"). All figures are in US$ millions. Exchange rate adjustment is current as of December 9.

YES!

I thought I had to do it from scratch, you posted this while I was writing to you, it shows already the adjusted details too, wow!

 

So if someone does not understand, I can give a link to you post here, and all should be clear, thank you very much!

[Gavin Feng]

RT 90%, MTC 82?

 

China

$21m OD

$69m OW

$140m lifetime?

[zackzack]

No numbers from Taiwan? Or France?

[Gavin Feng]

3 minutes ago, zackzack said:

No numbers from Taiwan? Or France?

Opens on Thursday I remember

[FlashMaster659]

10 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

Opens on Thursday I remember

2 hours ago, Bonenash said:

First Number From Paris Les halles ( big theater in Paris)

 

Rogue one 312 admissions from 1 screen.

 

 

For comparaison TFA did 898 from 2 screens.

 

Very good for a morning session but nothing has to be compared to TFA.

 

When you do more than 150 ad in Les halles the movie will do great ^^.

 

 

[terrestrial]

On 11.12.2016 at 11:03 AM, Gavin Feng said:

RT 90%, MTC 82?

84%

Average Rating: 7.6/10

Reviews Counted: 154

Fresh: 130

Rotten: 24

 

MTC has a strange disproportion to it (overlapping reviewers) only 65 what seem to be a bit strange (I've seen some ?? about that in threads in the dom area)

 

It seems to border to an r-rating ('not a family film'), no idea if or how that will impact.

Some of the negative reviews seem to criticise conflicting (too much - too less of the same detail)

 

One positive counting review is out of China:

 

Spoiler

 

 

James Mottram
South China Morning Post

 

December 13, 2016

While the principal characters are new, Edwards ensures there are enough significant nods to the Star Wars universe to enchant fans.

Full Review | Original Score: 4/5

 

 

 

For comparisons (SW R1 will get a lot of additional reviews, not final)

SW 7 had:

 

Spoiler

 

92%

Average Rating: 8.2/10

Reviews Counted: 361

Fresh: 333

Rotten: 28

 

 

Edited December 14, 2016 by terrestrial

[Gavin Feng]

@terrestrial I keep believing in Rogue One. Some reviews say it has a excellent 3rd act and praise Donnie Yen, and I think it will give a help on box office. 

[efialtes76]

Paris 14h

 

6478 admissions

 

TFA:16,415 admissions.

[Fullbuster]

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Paris 14h

 

6478 admissions

 

TFA:16,415 admissions.

 

4 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Paris 14h

 

6478 admissions

 

TFA:16,415 admissions.

 

Huge fall but it was expected.

 

Still a great number though.

[FantasticBeasts]

30 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Paris 14h

 

6478 admissions

 

TFA:16,415 admissions.

Any comparison with some recent big film?

[Poseidon]

8 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Any comparison with some recent big film?

 

Best comparison would be BvS and it's pretty much on par with that.
CA3 was bigger, but had holidays.

Here are all the early showings for 2016:

 

http://www.jpbox-office.com/1sceancep.php?qpage=datefr&infla=no&variable=2016

 

From those early numbers, maybe a weekend around 1,3m admissions? Hard to tell if it will be more backloaded. 

Edited December 14, 2016 by Poseidon

[James]

25 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

Best comparison would be BvS and it's pretty much on par with that.
CA3 was bigger, but had holidays.

Here are all the early showings for 2016:

 

http://www.jpbox-office.com/1sceancep.php?qpage=datefr&infla=no&variable=2016

 

From those early numbers, maybe a weekend around 1,3m admissions? Hard to tell if it will be more backloaded. 

Isn't 1.3m a bit low? That would be FB level, despite FB opening in Paris to a bit more than 1/3 of RO's OD. But then again, FB had a freakishly huge 5-day opening considering how muted it's OD was.

[Poseidon]

2 minutes ago, James said:

Isn't 1.3m a bit low? That would be FB level, despite FB opening in Paris to a bit more than 1/3 of RO's OD. But then again, FB had a freakishly huge 5-day opening considering how muted it's OD was.

 

Would be half of TFA with early shows beaing way weaker than half of TFA. It's only an estimate. As I said, could turn out more backloaded, but after all, it's Star Wars. 

[James]

6 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

Would be half of TFA with early shows beaing way weaker than half of TFA. It's only an estimate. As I said, could turn out more backloaded, but after all, it's Star Wars. 

Just for the heck of it I made a comparison with TFA. If it follows the same ratio from the opening in Paris, RO would end up very slightly above 1m admissions. It needs to held better than that.