2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)

[mahnamahna]

January-April

1. Batman vs. Superman: $430 million
2. The Jungle Book: $310 million 
3. Zootopia: $245 million 
4. Kung Fu Panda 3: $185 million 
5. Deadpool: $170 million 
6. Miracles From Heaven: $120 million 
7. Zoolander 2: $115 million 
8. Allegiant Part 1: $100 million 

May-August

1. Finding Dory: $520 million 
2. Captain America - Civil War: $385 million 
3. Suicide Squad: $305 million 
4. The Secret Lives of Pets: $280 million 
5. X-Men - Apocalypse: $260 million 
6. Ghostbusters: $230 million 
7. Independence Day - Resurgence: $205 million 
8. Star Trek Beyond: $185 million 
9. Central Intelligence: $180 million 
10. Bourne 5: $160 million 
11. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $155 million 
12. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $125 million 
13. Ice Age 5: $120 million 
14. TMNT 2: $115 million 
15. The Conjuring 2: $110 million
16. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $105 million 
17. Pete's Dragon: $100 million 

September-October

1. Rogue One: $475 million 
2. Moana: $330 million 
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $215 million 
4. Sing: $200 million 
5. Doctor Strange: $150 million 
6. Storks: $145 million 
7. The Magnificent Seven: $135 million 
8. The Girl on the Train: $125 million 
9. Passengers: $110 million 
10. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk: $115 million 
11. The Founder: $110 million 
12. Gambit: $105 million 
13. Sully: $100 million 
14. Silence: $100 million 

2016 has a much stronger Spring lineup and Sept-Oct is much more well-rounded. If Summer 2016 is well-rounded and a few more end up doing $100 million DOM (Warcraft, Angry Birds, NYSM2 and BFG being the primary wildcards), I'd say this club should happen!

 

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, mahnamahna said:

January-April

1. Batman vs. Superman: $430 million
2. The Jungle Book: $310 million 
3. Zootopia: $245 million 
4. Kung Fu Panda 3: $185 million 
5. Deadpool: $170 million 
6. Miracles From Heaven: $120 million 
7. Zoolander 2: $115 million 
8. Allegiant Part 1: $100 million 

May-August

1. Finding Dory: $520 million 
2. Captain America - Civil War: $385 million 
3. Suicide Squad: $305 million 
4. The Secret Lives of Pets: $280 million 
5. X-Men - Apocalypse: $260 million 
6. Ghostbusters: $230 million 
7. Independence Day - Resurgence: $205 million 
8. Star Trek Beyond: $185 million 
9. Central Intelligence: $180 million 
10. Bourne 5: $160 million 
11. Alice Through the Looking Glass: $155 million 
12. Neighbors 2 - Sorority Rising: $125 million 
13. Ice Age 5: $120 million 
14. TMNT 2: $115 million 
15. The Conjuring 2: $110 million
16. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $105 million 
17. Pete's Dragon: $100 million 

September-October

1. Rogue One: $475 million 
2. Moana: $330 million 
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them: $215 million 
4. Sing: $200 million 
5. Doctor Strange: $150 million 
6. Storks: $145 million 
7. The Magnificent Seven: $135 million 
8. The Girl on the Train: $125 million 
9. Passengers: $110 million 
10. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk: $115 million 
11. The Founder: $110 million 
12. Gambit: $105 million 
13. Sully: $100 million 
14. Silence: $100 million 

2016 has a much stronger Spring lineup and Sept-Oct is much more well-rounded. If Summer 2016 is well-rounded and a few more end up doing $100 million DOM (Warcraft, Angry Birds, NYSM2 and BFG being the primary wildcards), I'd say this club should happen!

 

Pretty good overall except for a couple of things:

 

I'd swap X-Men and ID's grosses. If Apocalypse increases from DOFP it won't be by that much.

Bourne is way too low. Supremacy and Ultimatum adjust to 246.9M and 287.6M respectively and Damon and Greengrass are coming off some of their most acclaimed work.

I doubt TMNT will drop 40% from the first, the trailer has been getting relatively positive praise.

Mike and Dave is not doing 100M. No way.

 

[MovieMan89]

Forgot about Sully and Silence, though can officially cross out 13 Hours off my long shots list. 

Edited January 24, 2016 by MovieMan89

[Blankments]

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15

[Blankments]

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15

[Kalo]

Usually in years where the highest grossing films are not quite as behemoth, there is usually more films that pass $100m. I don't think anything in 2016 is coming close to TFA, or even Jurassic World. and there seem to be a large amount of middle-size blockbusters so it's possible, here's what I think will cross $100m. 

 

Jan-March

 

1.Batman V Superman $415,000,000

2.Deadpool $360,000,000

3.Zootopia $255,000,000

4.The Divergent Series: Allegiant $100,000,000 

 

April-June:

5.Finding Dory $430,000,000

6.Captain America: Civil War $425,000,000

7.Independence Day: Resurgence $250,000,000

8.The Jungle Book $245,000,000

9.X-Men: Apocalypse $235,000,000

10.Alice Through the Looking Glass $185,000,000

11.Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows $145,000,000

12.Neighbors 2 $125,000,000

13.The Conjuring 2 $120,000,000

................................................. (Not locks, but I think they'll do it)

14.Central Intelligence $115,000,000

15.Warcraft $110,000,000

16.Me Before You $105,000,000

 

July-September

17.Suicide Squad $350,000,000

18.Jason Bourne $240,000,000

19.The Secret Life of Pets $225,000,000

20.Star Trek Beyond $170,000,000

21.Ghostbusters $145,000,000

22.The Magnificent Seven $125,000,000

23.Untitled Sony Animation $120,000,000 

24.Mike & Dave Need Wedding Dates $120,000,000

25.Ice Age: Collision Course $120,000,000

26.The BFG $112,000,000

27.Pete's Dragon $110,000,000

 

Oct-Dec

28.Rogue One: A Star Wars Story $450,000,000

29.Moana $285,000,000

30.Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them $275,000,000

31.Doctor Strange $210,000,000

32.Assassin's Creed $165,000,000

33.Passengers $155,000,000

34.Sing $155,000,000

35.Trolls $130,000,000

36.Miss Peregrine's Home for Peculiar Children $120,000,000

37.The Girl on the Train $110,000,000

38.Inferno $110,000,000

 

probably being way too generous. but whatever.

Edited February 23, 2016 by Kalo

[Blankments]

300M

1. Deadpool – March 5

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 30

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
    

[narniadis]

And we can get ready to add #4 to the list by like noon on the 26th lol

[mahnamahna]

1. Deadpool
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 
3. Zootopia
4. Batman vs. Superman: Dawn of Justice
5. The Jungle Book 
6. Captain America: Civil War 
7. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
8. The Angry Birds Movie
9. X-Men: Apocalypse 
10. Alice Through the Looking Glass
11. TMNT 2 
12. The Conjuring 2
13. Finding Dory
14. Central Intelligence
15. Independence Day 2
16. The BFG 
17. The Secret Lives of Pets
18. Ghostbusters
19. Ice Age 5 
20. Star Trek Beyond
21. Jason Bourne
22. Suicide Squad
23. The Founder
24. Sausage Party 
25. The Magnificent Seven
26. Storks 
27. Deepwater Horizon 
28. The Birth of a Nation
29. The Girl on the Train 
30. Doctor Strange
31. Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk
32. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 
33. Moana 
34. La La Land 
35. Rogue One
36. Passengers
37. Sing
38. Patriots Day 

Possible... I don't know if it'll happen, though. 

[zackzack]

1. Deadpool
2. Zootopia
3. Kung Fu Panda 3
4. Batman v Superman
5. Jungle Book
6. CA: Civil War
7. X Men Apocalypse
8. Alice Through The Looking Glass
9. Neighbors 2
10. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2
11. Now You See Me 2
12. Warcraft
13. Angry Birds
14. BFG
15. The Boss
16. Conjuring 2
17. Finding Dory
18. Central Intelligence
19. Secret Life of Pets
20. Independence Day Resurgence
21. Ghostbusters
22. Ice Age Collision Course
23. Star Trek Beyond
24. Jason Bourne
25. Suicide Squad
26. Magnificent 7
27. Girl on Train
28. Inferno
29. Dr Strange
30. Fantastic Beasts
31. Moana
32. Assassin Creed
33. Rogue One

 

Other possibles: Birth of a Nation, (strong buzz, maybe too arty for some), Deepwater Horizon, Home for Peculiar Children, Nice Guys, Tarzan (could be too goofy for adults), Huntsmen Winter's War (very weak trailer with bad fx, reliance on brand alone), Keanu (cast is too LGBT for some audience, premise is silly but some of the scenes in the trailer are insanely funny)

 

 

 

 

Edited March 28, 2016 by zackzack

[lilmac]

It's early but we already have 3 $300m blockbusters (strong assumption Zootopia will make it)

[zackzack]

2 hours ago, lilmac said:

It's early but we already have 3 $300m blockbusters (strong assumption Zootopia will make it)

 

Zootopia will make it. The weekday gross is very strong.

Last weekend hold is impressive considering the arrival of BvS

[WrathOfHan]

Done (4):

 

Kung Fu Panda 3

Deadpool

Zootopia

BVS

 

Locks (17):

 

The Jungle Book

Civil War

X-Men

TMNT

The Conjuring

Dory

Independence Day

Secret Life of Pets

Star Trek

Ice Age

Bourne

Suicide Squad

Storks

Doctor Strange

Fantastic Beasts

Moana

Rogue One

 

Good Chance (16):

 

Neighbors 

Angry Birds

Alice

The BFG

Ghostbusters

Sausage Party
Pete's Dragon

Sully

Deepwater Horizon

The Magnificent 7

The Girl on the Train

La La Land

Passengers

Sing

Story of Your Life

Silence

 

Longshots (13):

 

The Boss

Warcraft

Now You See Me 2

Tarzan

Miss Peregrine's 

The Birth of a Nation

The Accountant 

Jack Reacher

Inferno

Trolls

Billy Lynn

Robert Zemeckis WW2

Assassin's Creed

[lilmac]

11 hours ago, zackzack said:

 

Zootopia will make it. The weekday gross is very strong.

Last weekend hold is impressive considering the arrival of BvS

 

Deadpools sub 40% drop is quite impressive too since they were going after the same audience.

Edited March 28, 2016 by lilmac

[DAJK]

Dear lord April looks abysmal. Are we seriously only getting 1 100M film with Jungle Book?

[Blankments]

300M

1. Deadpool – March 5

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 30

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26

[MCKillswitch123]

JANUARY:

1. Kung Fu Panda 3

FEBRUARY:

1. Deadpool

MARCH:

1. Zootopia
2. Batman V Superman: Dawn Of Justice

APRIL:

1. The Jungle Book

MAY:

1. Captain America: Civil War
2. The Angry Birds Movie
3. Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising
4. Alice Through The Looking Glass
5. X-Men: Apocalypse

JUNE:

1. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out Of The Shadows
2. The Conjuring 2
3. Warcraft
4. Central Intelligence
5. Finding Dory
6. Independence Day: Resurgence

JULY:

1. The BFG
2. The Secret Life Of Pets
3. Ghostbusters
4. Ice Age: Collision Cource
5. Star Trek Beyond
6. Jason Bourne

AUGUST:

1. Suicide Squad
2. Sausage Party
3. Pete's Dragon

SEPTEMBER:

1. The Magnificent Seven
2. Storks

OCTOBER:

1. The Girl On The Train
2. Inferno

NOVEMBER:

1. Doctor Strange
2. Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them
3. Moana

DECEMBER:

1. La La Land
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Assassin's Creed
4. Passengers
5. Sing

 

My predictions at which ones have a shot at it, 37 at total. I think it can make it, but it'll be tough.

 

[Blankments]

300M

1. Deadpool – March 5

200M

1. Deadpool - February 20
2. Zootopia – March 20
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 30

100M

1. Deadpool - February 14
2. Kung Fu Panda 3 - February 15
3. Zootopia – March 11
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - March 26

[zackzack]

Three $200M grossers before April? Is it because of El Nino?

Will there be a drought later on in the year?

Edited April 1, 2016 by zackzack

[Blankments]

4 hours ago, zackzack said:

Three $200M grossers before April? Is it because of El Nino?

Will there be a drought later on in the year?

Four if you count the Star Wars hangover. Pretty good stuff.