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Predict Kungfu Panda 3's daily gross on Chinese New Years Day

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As of now it seems to have only 1.4% of screens for CNY. Mermaid, Monkey king 3 and Macau 3 all seem to have strong pre-sales(already at 63m between the three). I am not sure how panda will be able to hold > 5% unless it has extraordinary holds.

 

I would say as many millions as % of screens it will hold :-)

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38 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

As of now it seems to have only 1.4% of screens for CNY. Mermaid, Monkey king 3 and Macau 3 all seem to have strong pre-sales(already at 63m between the three). I am not sure how panda will be able to hold > 5% unless it has extraordinary holds.

 

I would say as many millions as % of screens it will hold :-)

Yeah, already 106K showtimes have been scheduled, it will at most triple that I think.5% is a strench.

ONLY GOOD NEWS is that all the big three movies are bad in quality.

On Feb. 8th, should have total of 220K showtimes as all movies' run time are less than 2 hours.

In all seats share, KFP3 is even lower, accounted for 1.1%

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3 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

As of now it seems to have only 1.4% of screens for CNY. Mermaid, Monkey king 3 and Macau 3 all seem to have strong pre-sales(already at 63m between the three). I am not sure how panda will be able to hold > 5% unless it has extraordinary holds.

 

I would say as many millions as % of screens it will hold :-)

 

So like 4-5m? That would be close to half of the monday gross. Why do you think it would fall so hard? The WOM is apparently good and the monday drop further shows this. Also, one thing I'd say is that I think the effect of competition is being taken as much worse than it should be. Remember the JBM-TMK-MH trio last year? 3 absolutely huge films co-existed and thrived, each of them seriously outperforming expectations. Of course the drop in screen count will cause heavy damage but I believe that increased theater attendance due to the big movies + bad WOM for them may end up somewhat actually helping KFP3.

Edited by Infernus
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Monday Feb .8th - 79.3M - 107k

movie    presales  showtimes

Mermaid  29.04m   34.1%

TMK2       25.17m   28%

TMFM      19.44m    26%

Mr. Nian    3.67m    8.6%

KFP3         0.36m     1.7%

Edited by The Good Olive
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8 minutes ago, The Good Olive said:

Monday Feb .8th - 79.3M - 107k

movie    presales  showtimes

Mermaid  29.04m   34.1%

TMK2       25.17m   28%

TMFM      19.44m    26%

Mr. Nian    3.67m    8.6%

KFP3         0.36m     1.7%

Very steep drop for KFP3. Not promising.

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Monday Feb .8th - 98M - 120k
movie    presales  showtimes
Mermaid  36.61m   34.4%
TMK2       29.58m   27.6%
TMFM      24.68m    25.8%
Mr. Nian    4.03m    8.4%
KFP3         0.47m     2.0%

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CNY: 585M

KFP3 on CNY: 19.5M

 

Monday Feb .8th - 225M - 186k
movie    presales  showtimes
Mermaid  84.41m    34.0%
TMK2       65.51m    26.2%
TMFM      59.81m    26.0%
Mr. Nian      5.2m      6.6%
KFP3           5.1m     4.2%


 

 
Edited by The Good Olive
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Monday Feb .8th - 358M - 197k
movie    presales  showtimes [my preidction]
Mermaid  135.2m    34.0% [225m]
TMK2       96.88m    26.0%[172m]
TMFM3     95.42m    26.2%[163m]
Mr. Nian      6.7m      6.4%[17m]
KFP3           8.8m      4.3%[19.5m]

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1 hour ago, The Good Olive said:

Monday Feb .8th - 358M - 197k
movie    presales  showtimes [my preidction]
Mermaid  135.2m    34.0% [225m]
TMK2       96.88m    26.0%[172m]
TMFM3     95.42m    26.2%[163m]
Mr. Nian      6.7m      6.4%[17m]
KFP3           8.8m      4.3%[19.5m]

So 600M+ is possible.

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