LOGAN LUCKY | 08.18.17 | trailer on page 2

[HenryMeyers20]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

That is very misleading (For example you use a very high foreign P&A but no foreign revenue) only the first weekend BO, not take into account how much box office influence what you get from international TV. A 18m opening weekend on a 29m budget movie would not have been bad at all. That is quite similar to Hitman Bodyguard...

I understand what you are saying. My numbers aren't completely accurate, I was just trying to make a point. I've should made that more clear.

Your are right, I forgot about the foreign revenue. Let put that at $20m b/o while probably too high with a 55% theater take. That still be would $83.7 million in the red.

I know this just the first weekend, very few movies make profit ow. But  my point is, even with a low box office, LL is in better shape than most movies.

Edited August 20, 2017 by HenryMeyers20

[Plain Old Tele]

A key point about pre-selling foreign distribution is that it provides capital to actually make the movie.

[HenryMeyers20]

My example is why major studios don't make mid level budget films anymore, it's not financially feasible.

[HenryMeyers20]

Interesting quotes from Steven Soderbergh and EP Dan Fellman about LL opening.

 

“This weekend’s number is not a problem; we were in profit as soon as someone bought a ticket,” Mr. Soderbergh said, noting that 46 percent of total domestic ticket sales “will go into a pool shared by the cast and crew.”

He added, “The entire experience has been a blast, which was also one of my goals.”

Dan Fellman, a “Logan Lucky” producer and film distribution consultant, said by phone that turnout was strong on the coasts. “Where we didn’t connect was in the South and Midwest, which is frustrating because the movie was made for that audience,” he said.

 

This is why big studios ignore the rural areas. Soderbergh also said he will do things different on his next movie.

I think this is a learning experience for Soderbergh, sound like that $8 million mostly came from NY and LA, which is surprising.

 

Here is the link to the article:

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/20/movies/hitmans-bodyguard-logan-lucky-box-office.html

 

[kowhite]

I'm rooting for Soderbergh,  But, in order to do what he did...you need to be...a previous success.  This isn't an indie model for everyone.  And it's not an indie model for even knowns, next time at bat.  Luc Besson knows.  Tough business.

 

And this was a quality movie.

Edited August 20, 2017 by kowhite

[Barnack]

6 hours ago, HenryMeyers20 said:

My example is why major studios don't make mid level budget films anymore, it's not financially feasible.

Depend what you mean by mid budget level (considering this is a 29m budget movie) I imagine you mean movie with a 20 to 60m type of budget.

 

last 3 year's according to the-numbers there is 175 of the them (many of not from major studios and we would need to clean it but), with a success rate above 50%, list:

Spoiler

 

Sully	$60,000,000
London Has Fallen	$60,000,000
Jack Reacher: Never Go Back	$60,000,000
Baywatch	$60,000,000
Joy	$60,000,000
Smurfs: The Lost Village	$60,000,000
The Dark Tower	$60,000,000
Rock Dog	$60,000,000
Mortdecai	$60,000,000
Xi You Ji zhi Sun Wu Kong San Da Bai Gu Jing	$60,000,000
The Ridiculous 6	$60,000,000
Deadpool	$58,000,000
Goosebumps	$58,000,000
Life	$58,000,000
Zhuo yao ji	$56,000,000
Fifty Shades Darker	$55,000,000
Paddington	$55,000,000
Kubo and the Two Strings	$55,000,000
Crimson Peak	$55,000,000
Black Mass	$53,000,000
Daddy’s Home	$50,000,000
Central Intelligence	$50,000,000
The Emoji Movie	$50,000,000
13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi	$50,000,000
War Dogs	$50,000,000
The Nice Guys	$50,000,000
Zoolander 2	$50,000,000
Run All Night	$50,000,000
Snowden	$50,000,000
Free State of Jones	$50,000,000
Child 44	$50,000,000
Shanghai	$50,000,000
Chappie	$49,000,000
Taken 3	$48,000,000
The Infiltrator	$47,500,000
Arrival	$47,000,000
Silence	$46,500,000
The Girl on the Train	$45,000,000
Office Christmas Party	$45,000,000
All Eyez on Me	$45,000,000
A Monster Calls	$43,000,000
Snatched	$42,000,000
Pourquoi j'ai pas mangé mon père	$42,000,000
Fifty Shades of Grey	$40,000,000
The Conjuring 2: The Enfield Poltergeist	$40,000,000
John Wick: Chapter Two	$40,000,000
Ride Along 2	$40,000,000
Get Hard	$40,000,000
The Accountant	$40,000,000
The Intern	$40,000,000
Bridge of Spies	$40,000,000
Hacksaw Ridge	$40,000,000
Patriots Day	$40,000,000
Resident Evil: The Final Chapter	$40,000,000
The House	$40,000,000
The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature	$40,000,000
The Gunman	$40,000,000
Baahubali: The Beginning	$40,000,000
Victor Frankenstein	$40,000,000
Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk	$40,000,000
USS Indianapolis: Men of Courage	$40,000,000
The Crow	$40,000,000
Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie	$38,000,000
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2	$38,000,000
Why Him?	$38,000,000
The 5th Wave	$38,000,000
Creed	$37,000,000
How to be Single	$37,000,000
Aloha	$37,000,000
Collateral Beauty	$36,000,000
Yip Man 3	$36,000,000
Queen of the Desert	$36,000,000
Trainwreck	$35,000,000
Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising	$35,000,000
Poltergeist	$35,000,000
Hot Pursuit	$35,000,000
Concussion	$35,000,000
Bridget Jones’s Baby	$35,000,000
Whiskey Tango Foxtrot	$35,000,000
Hitman: Agent 47	$35,000,000
Unfinished Business	$35,000,000
The Walk	$35,000,000
The Brothers Grimsby	$35,000,000
The Lovers	$35,000,000
Baby Driver	$34,000,000
The Longest Ride	$34,000,000
Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates	$33,000,000
The Young and Prodigious T.S. Spivet	$33,000,000
Freaks of Nature	$33,000,000
Criminal	$31,500,000
Vacation	$31,000,000
Sisters	$30,000,000
Southpaw	$30,000,000
Atomic Blonde	$30,000,000
Sicario	$30,000,000
The Age of Adaline	$30,000,000
Entourage	$30,000,000
The Hitman’s Bodyguard	$30,000,000
Baahubali 2: The Conclusion	$30,000,000
Steve Jobs	$30,000,000
Wild Card	$30,000,000
United Passions	$30,000,000
Ballerina	$30,000,000
Grace of Monaco	$30,000,000
Savva. Serdtse voyna	$30,000,000
Bilal	$30,000,000
Collide	$29,200,000
Pitch Perfect 2	$29,000,000
The Boss	$29,000,000
Florence Foster Jenkins	$29,000,000
Logan Lucky	$29,000,000
Straight Outta Compton	$28,000,000
Girls Trip	$28,000,000
The Big Short	$28,000,000
American Ultra	$28,000,000
Pride and Prejudice and Zombies	$28,000,000
Our Brand is Crisis	$28,000,000
Money Monster	$27,000,000
Rules Don’t Apply	$26,700,000
Self/Less	$26,000,000
Viy	$26,000,000
Accidental Love	$26,000,000
The Face of an Angel	$26,000,000
Hidden Figures	$25,000,000
A Dog’s Purpose	$25,000,000
The Night Before	$25,000,000
Fist Fight	$25,000,000
Rings	$25,000,000
Shaun the Sheep	$25,000,000
CHiPS	$25,000,000
The 33	$25,000,000
Legend	$25,000,000
Jane Got a Gun	$25,000,000
Yi ge ren de wu lin	$25,000,000
Red Sky	$25,000,000
Tulip Fever	$25,000,000
Reagan	$25,000,000
Going in Style	$24,000,000
The Wedding Ringer	$23,000,000
Eddie the Eagle	$23,000,000
Chai dàn zhuanjia	$23,000,000
Nocturnal Animals	$22,500,000
The Water Diviner	$22,500,000
Hail, Caesar!	$22,000,000
Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul	$22,000,000
The Transporter Refueled	$22,000,000
The Butterfly God	$22,000,000
Bitter Harvest	$21,000,000
La La Land	$20,000,000
Bad Moms	$20,000,000
Tyler Perry’s Boo! A Madea Halloween	$20,000,000
Me Before You	$20,000,000
Barbershop: The Next Cut	$20,000,000
Selma	$20,000,000
Spotlight	$20,000,000
Max	$20,000,000
Nerve	$20,000,000
Risen	$20,000,000
Rough Night	$20,000,000
Secret in Their Eyes	$20,000,000
Burnt	$20,000,000
Triple 9	$20,000,000
The Light Between Oceans	$20,000,000
Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping	$20,000,000
Ratchet and Clank	$20,000,000
Little Boy	$20,000,000
Hands of Stone	$20,000,000
My All-American	$20,000,000
Jìyì dàshi	$20,000,000
By the Sea	$20,000,000
Regression	$20,000,000
Survivor	$20,000,000
The History of Love	$20,000,000
Fight Valley	$20,000,000
The Thousand Miles	$20,000,000

 

 

 

But logan lucky (or THB) are more low budget movie than mid-range, the fact that we would call a movie below 30m mid range instead of low budget show just how the mid range became rare, the mid budget 80m to 120m non franchise movie almost went away.

 

If we look at the prime Russel Crowe filmography:

 

A beautiful Mind: 58m (80m in 2017 dollar)

Master and commander: 150m (200m today)

Cinderella Man: 88m (110m today)

The insider: 90m (132m today)

American Gangster: 100m  (118m today)

3:10 to Yuma: 55m (65m today)

Body of Lies: 70m (80m today)

 

Except for Master and commander that was more in the blockbuster range, the other movie were what people thought of mid range / non tentpole big adult drama production. Those are getting rarer and rarer, the 20-30m movie is still common (arguably too common and that is the problem, not enough of those 60-120m movie like in the past).

 

Looking at that list how many of those movie would get greenlight in 2017 under the adjusted price for inflation ? If Nolan or DiCaprio don't get involved. Maybe 0.

 

Edited August 21, 2017 by Barnack

[HenryMeyers20]

My definition of mid level is $80 million and lower. Major studios mainly produce big blockbusters and only distribute lower budget movies.

Even Hitman's Bodyguard is an independent movie, Lionsgate is only distributing it in some markets.

 

You said success rate is over 50%, well maybe not.

In a speech Soderbergh made in San Francisco a few year ago he give an example why big studio don't make low and mid level movies. He said:

Movie AA budget is $10m

It cost $30m to open domestically

It cost another $30m to open in foreign markets

A studio is not going to spent $60m to open a $10m movie

The movie now has to gross $140m just to break even, because the theater get 50% of ticket sales.

Now how many $10m movies gross $140m, not many.

 

What Soderbergh did with LL was to cut out the middle man by selling foreign distribution rights, instead of making distribution deals, he sold first streaming and self distribute the film domestically. This is why today he can brag that LL is profitable even with a dismal box office performance.

 

 

Edited August 21, 2017 by HenryMeyers20

[Barnack]

That was part of Kevin Smith speech at Sundance when he distributed himself to exhibitionner the movie Red state:

 

 

He did use a bit more realistic number, you do not need to gross $140m from a $10m movie.

 

They usually do not get a 60m world P&A the 10m movie and often 60%+ of the revenue are post theatrical for them.

 

Take a movie like Evil Death 2013

 

Direct production Budget: 17.25 million

Domestic P&A: 30.52m

International P&A: 10.55 m

 

Total revenue: 

domestic Theatrical: 26.64m

intl theatrical: 13.7m

World Home ent: 29m

World TV: 37.31m

Airlines: 5k

 

Total revenue: 106.765 million

Profit: 20.9 m to the studio, 13.45m in participation bonus

 

or the movie Easy A

Domestic: $58,401,464   77.9%

+ Foreign: $16,550,841   22.1%

= Worldwide: $74,952,305 

 

Domestic P&A: 35.66 m

intl P&A: 9.982m

Production budget: 11.128m

 

Total revenue: 137m

Profit: 42.12m to the studio, 14.8 in participation bonus

 

Both didn't come close to 140m WW, and were really profitable.

 

 

 

 

[HenryMeyers20]

1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

 

Both didn't come close to 140m WW, and were really profitable.

 

It depends on the movie, Soderbergh only works with big name stars. So the foreign distributors will throw on money into marketing. When Easy A came out Emma Stone was not consider a star.

 

I don't understand your math, how is "Easy A" total revenue is $137m when it only gross $75m?

 

Also Soderbergh was only speaking about the theatricial window, not tv .

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, HenryMeyers20 said:

I don't understand your math, how is "Easy A" total revenue is $137m when it only gross $75m?

There is not math involved, purely using sony leaked accounting of Easy A. Doing 150% of the box office in revenue was around the norm back then, for a loved comedy that was very domestic heavy doing much more than that was not unusual.

 

Easy A revenue were (in thousand)

 

DOMESTIC THEATRICAL REVENUE 28,133 

INTL THEATRICAL REVENUE 6,425 

DOMESTIC HOME ENT REVENUE 40,275 

DOMESTIC HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 8,898 

INTL HOME ENT REVENUE 9,992

INTL HOME ENT PPV REVENUE 1,387 

DOMESTIC PAY TV REVENUE 11,560 

DOMESTIC FREE TV REVENUE 7,328

INTERNATIONAL TELEVISION REVENUE 22,500 

AIRLINES AND MUSIC 989

NON-THEATRICAL & OTHER 223 

 

Total: 137.712 million, 34.5m from theatre vs over 100 million after, that was the good time still in the end of the dvd bubble.

 

Has you see box office give some clue about a movie story, but far from all of it, specially for release between 2004 and 2010 or so, almost all the money was in dvds and international tv, theatrical was mostly a publicity (run at a deficit yearly cost of releasing movies being higher for studios than ticket rental) for those 2 big real source of money for the studios. They are correlated with theatrical (R2 of around 0.8) but far from perfect.

 

Quote

 

Also Soderbergh was only speaking about the theatricial window, not tv .

 

 

 

Why would anyone talk about the theatrical window in particular ? Specially someone that know how important the other are (and pre-sold some of them in this case). Almost no movie made in the last 25 year's make sense financially from a theatrical window alone point of view, and it has nothing special vs the others.

Edited August 21, 2017 by Barnack

[HenryMeyers20]

8 hours ago, Barnack said:

 

 

 

Why would anyone talk about the theatrical window in particular ? Specially someone that know how important the other are (and pre-sold some of them in this case). Almost no movie made in the last 25 year's make sense financially from a theatrical window alone point of view, and it has nothing special vs the others.

I don't know why Soderbergh only talk about the theatrical window, maybe he just old fashion. 

But I see your point, only 25% of most movies revenue come from the theatrical window.

I think Soderbergh believe a movie should be profitable in that window.

[Kingp0va]

glad this shit flopped after it kept messing up imdb for me

Edited August 21, 2017 by Kingp0va

[That One Girl]

12 minutes ago, Kingp0va said:

glad this shit flopped after it kept messing up imdb for me

 

lmao this is the pettiest reason to cheer for something to flop

[HenryMeyers20]

Soderbergh in The NY Times Sunday is quoted as saying the weekend is not problem, LL made profit soon as the first ticket were sold. 

The problem was the South and Midwest did not support it, the very people it was made for.

 

What I find weird was the top 10 theaters with the biggest audience for LL was in LA and NY. 7 in LA the other 3 in NY. 

 

Soderbergh made a mistake by not marketing it in the big cities. Thats were the real audience was for this movie.

 

He also should have open it in limited release. The big cities came out for the cast, but rural folk don't care about cast.

 

Soderbergh miscalculated people in the South and Midwest, he thought they would like it, but they were probably insulted by it.

[Kingp0va]

2 hours ago, That Floating Guy said:

 

lmao this is the pettiest reason to cheer for something to flop

better than nothing lol

[That One Girl]

13 minutes ago, Kingp0va said:

better than nothing lol

 

You act as if that it's a requirement to cheer for everything to flop

[HenryMeyers20]

Technically, it's not a flop because it's already on the profit side.

[Kingp0va]

1 hour ago, That Floating Guy said:

 

You act as if that it's a requirement to cheer for everything to flop

i was not being really serious

[That One Girl]

Just now, Kingp0va said:

i was not being really serious

 

I'm sure you weren't  

[DAJK]

22 hours ago, HenryMeyers20 said:

My definition of mid level is $80 million and lower. Major studios mainly produce big blockbusters and only distribute lower budget movies.

Even Hitman's Bodyguard is an independent movie, Lionsgate is only distributing it in some markets.

 

You said success rate is over 50%, well maybe not.

In a speech Soderbergh made in San Francisco a few year ago he give an example why big studio don't make low and mid level movies. He said:

Movie AA budget is $10m

It cost $30m to open domestically

It cost another $30m to open in foreign markets

A studio is not going to spent $60m to open a $10m movie

The movie now has to gross $140m just to break even, because the theater get 50% of ticket sales.

Now how many $10m movies gross $140m, not many.

 

What Soderbergh did with LL was to cut out the middle man by selling foreign distribution rights, instead of making distribution deals, he sold first streaming and self distribute the film domestically. This is why today he can brag that LL is profitable even with a dismal box office performance.

 

 

But theatres don't keep 50% of ticket sales. Actually, for the first 2 weeks of a movie's release, the take-away for theatres is very low. It's only when a movie is in its later weeks that less money goes back to studios.