Captain America CW contest. Gold and Premium Account Awarded

[Cynosure]

I let the hype get to me and edited my prediction upwards. Should have left it how it was initially.

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Olive said:

Yeah, it's not likely to open above 750M yuan any more.

 

 

You couldn't have said this when my prediction was 730m 

[Asyulus]

(deleted)

Edited May 4, 2016 by Asyulus

[Agafin]

A lot of Hollywood movies have been overpredicted in China this year.

[Infernus]

So my predictions are the exact averages. Thats Cool.

[POTUS 2020]

On Wednesday, May 04, 2016 at 2:05 PM, No Prisoners said:

		OW	Total			OW	Total
1	druv10	850.0	2300.0		druv10	850.0	2300.0
2	bluebomb	825.0	2030.0		leatherjacket	780.0	2250.0
3	jiangsen	815.0	2050.0		TigerPaw	750.0	2150.0
4	Jack	798.0	1985.0		jiangsen	815.0	2050.0
5	leatherjacket	780.0	2250.0		bluebomb	825.0	2030.0
6	Pypa94	770.0	1870.0		Jack	798.0	1985.0
7	TallismanRing	765.0	1900.0		Asyulus	684.0	1920.0
8	No Prisoners	760.4	1815.5		TallismanRing	765.0	1900.0
9	Cynosure	755.0	1780.0		Pypa94	770.0	1870.0
10	TigerPaw	750.0	2150.0		Ent	695.0	1850.0
11	Olive	745.0	1740.0		No Prisoners	760.4	1815.5
12	Infernus	740.0	1800.0		Infernus	740.0	1800.0
13	Wrathof Han	720.0	1745.4		Cynosure	755.0	1780.0
14	pepsa	700.0	1600.0		Wrathof Han	720.0	1745.4
15	Ent	695.0	1850.0		Olive	745.0	1740.0
16	eXtacy	690.0	1730.0		eXtacy	690.0	1730.0
17	fmpro	690.0	1650.0		fastclock	671.0	1679.0
18	Asyulus	684.0	1920.0		Imojammaer	675.0	1650.0
19	abra	680.0	1350.0		fmpro	690.0	1650.0
20	Imojammaer	675.0	1650.0		pepsa	700.0	1600.0
21	fastclock	671.0	1679.0		peludo	640.0	1550.0
22	peludo	640.0	1550.0		cannastop	625.0	1450.0
23	cannastop	625.0	1450.0		Omni	550.0	1400.0
24	Omni	550.0	1400.0		abra	680.0	1350.0
	Average	723.9	1801.9		Average	723.9	1801.9

Congratulations @cannastop for hitting the opening weekend dead on at ¥625m!

For now I think between 1400 to 1600m will be the total.

Good luck @Omni @cannastop @peludo @pepsa

 

Edited May 10, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Olive]

Even 1400M is not locked.

[cannastop]

9 minutes ago, Olive said:

Even 1400M is not locked.

Damn, then I might not win again.

[keysersoze123]

it looks like total would be below omni's prediction !!! at least OW came above the last one.

[POTUS 2020]

In looking at Cap's weekend, it could get to the mid to high 40s today. Even if it bumps 100% tomorrow and drops 30% Sunday, the weekend will be 200m max, likely to be 10% lower, plus 60m midweek.  a total of 1070m on Thursday. With 50% holds for the last 2 weeks, which is unlikely given its performance, it would make 200m more. 1270m is being extremely optimistic and it will most likely be under 1200m

I declare @abra winner of final total.

Congratulations 

PM me your email to receive your gift card. 

 

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

In looking at Cap's weekend, it could get to the mid to high 40s today. Even if it bumps 100% tomorrow and drops 30% Sunday, the weekend will be 200m max, likely to be 10% lower, plus 60m midweek.  a total of 1070m on Thursday. With 50% holds for the last 2 weeks, which is unlikely given its performance, it would make 200m more. 1270m is being extremely optimistic and it will most likely be under 1200m

I declare @abra winner of final total.

Congratulations 

PM me your email to receive your gift card. 

 

Oh, wow. I'm not going to object, because I'm a noob.

 

Does this result shock anyone? It literally did worse than everyone expected?

[POTUS 2020]

7 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Oh, wow. I'm not going to object, because I'm a noob.

 

Does this result shock anyone? It literally did worse than everyone expected?

Piracy is the obvious cause. As bad as WoM was with SW7, BvS and others, we've never see three 20%~ DoD drops like this. 

As explained there is no way it can can cross 1300m, let alone get to 1376m for abra not to win. I like to keep my to do list short. 

[cannastop]

Just now, No Prisoners said:

Piracy is the obvious cause. As bad as WoM was with SW7, BvS and others, we've never see three 20%~ DoD drops like this. 

As explained there is no way it can can cross 1300m, let alone get to 1376m for abra not to win. I like to keep my to do list short. 

Ah, k.

Why weren't other movies pirated?

[POTUS 2020]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Ah, k.

Why weren't other movies pirated?

Someone has to get hold of a DVD or file and release it. I assume they keep security tight when it comes to $1b of intellectual property but shit happens. Most people don't like cams so they don't have as much of an impact. 

How are your picks coming along in the derby. It's another tough week. Deadline is in 3 hours.

[cannastop]

8 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Someone has to get hold of a DVD or file and release it. I assume they keep security tight when it comes to $1b of intellectual property but shit happens. Most people don't like cams so they don't have as much of an impact. 

How are your picks coming along in the derby. It's another tough week. Deadline is in 3 hours.

Oh, I've decided. I think I might do well this week.

[POTUS 2020]

58 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Oh, wow. I'm not going to object, because I'm a noob.

 

Does this result shock anyone? It literally did worse than everyone expected?

It should have had no worse than 12% drops, maybe 10%, BvS averaged 14% it's first M-th with bad WOM. 

At 12% it would have made 17m more Tues-Thur with a total of 41m on Thursday instead of 32m. That affects the weekend by 54m and next midweek by 40m. Plus another 90m for the rest of the run. At least 200m.  It would be over 300m more if it held 10% DoD like AM had and a -50%~ hold this weekend which was very possible. A few percent a day causes a ripple effect down the line. As it approaches zero, each percent grows the increase exponentially.

 

Edited May 13, 2016 by No Prisoners

[POTUS 2020]

22 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Oh, I've decided. I think I might do well this week.

I'm having a tough time deciding how well the great holdovers will do. The  poor holdovers can go either way. New releases are always tough to gauge.  Don't want to be too high in case they bomb.  

[cannastop]

Just now, No Prisoners said:

I'm having a tough time deciding how well the great holdovers will do. The  poor holdovers can go either way. New releases are always tough to gauge.  Don't want to be too high in case they bomb.  

I don't put much effort in it. In fact, I always make my main decisions on Tuesday evening.

[Agafin]

On 13/5/2016 at 4:22 AM, cannastop said:

Oh, wow. I'm not going to object, because I'm a noob.

 

Does this result shock anyone? It literally did worse than everyone expected?

 

Why would that be shocking? TFA, KFP3, BvS and now CW. It doesn't matter if the cause was bad release dates, crap WOM, piracy or whatever, all those movie literally did worse than anyone was expecting. If anything, CW is following that general trend so far.

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, Agafin said:

 

Why would that be shocking? TFA, KFP3, BvS and now CW. It doesn't matter if the cause was bad release dates, crap WOM, piracy or whatever, all those movie literally did worse than anyone was expecting. If anything, CW is following that general trend so far.

Not every movie does worse than expected.

 

If you what I'm talking about.